If we follow the 2013/2015 patern, the price will reach a new ATH only in 2027

[boumalo]

In Dec 2013 : ATH 1200$

then it declined and stayed roughfly between 200$ and 300$ for 22 months

If it was to follow the same patern again :

Now-Oct 2023 : 11 000 - 17 000$

And we would need to wait until 2027 to have a new ATH

Idea came from : Peter Schiff

I think a more likely scenario is that the Fed stops tightening not long before it will start in 2022, or don't tight much, and BTC raises >100K$ with 18 months from now if Big governments don't ban it.

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[Oshosondy]

Is 2013 the only ATH? What about 2017 and 2021? You make it simple but wrong.

Be expecting ATH before 2027. Another halving is coming on 2024, people can fomo again and other investors too can invest which can drive the price to ATH.

Now-Oct 2023 : 11 000 - 17 000$

What makes you think bitcoin will decrease up to this level? I am not thinking bitcoin will decrease below $20000.

[DoublerHunter]

^ It is a baseless conclusion which is only OP believe.
Look around and listen to the news, I don't think BTC will drop beyond even $35-40k. We have a lot of investors out there and many countries start legalizing BTC and I think this could be the reason BTC maintain on the top and no one will give up.
On the other side, BTC is expecting to have a new ATH after 4 years from the previous ATH, because the halving BTC price will surely increase and last year 2021 we are even glad to see that we experienced a twice ATH in a year. Nevertheless, I don't think BTC will repeat itself, that is impossible to happen.

[Johnyz]

The usual scenario for me is that, every time Bitcoin reaches a new peak, bad news started coming in and yes even government spread FUD about Bitcoin, snd the result was a big correction as well. Though Bitcoin is not that affected because it keeps on rising from time to time so I’m also confident that after this correction, new peak will be made and it can happen this year.

[suzanne5223]

In Dec 2013 : ATH 1200$

then it declined and stayed roughfly between 200$ and 300$ for 22 months

If it was to follow the same patern again :

Now-Oct 2023 : 11 000 - 17 000$

Assuming the market follow the same pattern again like those years you mention. It is still hard to predict the bottom price of the Bitcoin market.

And we would need to wait until 2027 to have a new ATH

According to my own understanding of Bitcoin ATH price.
The new ATH price is always achieved when the Bitcoin blockchain halving takes place and if you look at the Bitcoin price history you'll see that my impression is totally correct.
Therefore, the new ATH price will happen in the year 2025.

[stomachgrowls]

In Dec 2013 : ATH 1200$

then it declined and stayed roughfly between 200$ and 300$ for 22 months

If it was to follow the same patern again :

Now-Oct 2023 : 11 000 - 17 000$

And we would need to wait until 2027 to have a new ATH

Idea came from : Peter Schiff

I think a more likely scenario is that the Fed stops tightening not long before it will start in 2022, or don't tight much, and BTC raises >100K$ with 18 months from now if Big governments don't ban it.

Having no bans from government  does signify that we would reach up new all time highs but if this one happens then it would really be likely giving out those kind of situations on where price could really

increase because we cant really deny that negative news does give out bad impact in overall market and if we dont experience it for a while or for years then people might have been thinking that it is already been considered which would really be boosting up that buying factor.

Following into the same pattern? I dont think so because past isnt  guaranteed to happen in the future because if we do consider on several factors like the level of demand
then you couldnt really make out some comparison or making them the same.

[adaseb]

It’s hard to say what effect the fed will actually have on the markets. We already know there will be tapering, reduce balance sheet, increase rates so it won’t be a surprise if these actually happens. It’s priced in.

I think what is more important will be if COVID-19 continues to mess things up and there is no fed rate increases then that will obviously not be priced in.

Or if they raise rates much much sooner or do more hikes then actually planned. So your theory might not exactly work out.

[mk4]

At some point people should just stop following patterns based on past performances. I mean, even the infamous Bitcoin S2F Model broke. It should be totally expected for patterns to stop repeating especially when a lot of people are expecting the same exact outcome.

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results".

[Jawhead999]

I don't understand what you said above, there's no such pattern based on your post. You're talking on 2013 and 2023, where on earth 2027 come from? The better pattern is halving event on 2024, and people will expect 2025 Bitcoin will bullish.

Many governments already start creating his own coin CBDC, I expect government will ban Bitcoin again because if they didn't ban Bitcoin their CBDC will have less interest.

[noorman0]

^ It is a baseless conclusion which is only OP believe.

There is no opinion to blame, the OP is only speculating based on historical prices (TA), and you are throwing your own opinion based on the behavior of the government and society that has the potential to support price increases.
No matter how intens you do the analysis (TA&FA), it will still produce a maximum of 50% accuracy. Especially if we talk about 3-10 years in the future.

[Taskford]

In Dec 2013 : ATH 1200$

then it declined and stayed roughfly between 200$ and 300$ for 22 months

If it was to follow the same patern again :

Now-Oct 2023 : 11 000 - 17 000$

And we would need to wait until 2027 to have a new ATH

Idea came from : Peter Schiff

I think a more likely scenario is that the Fed stops tightening not long before it will start in 2022, or don't tight much, and BTC raises >100K$ with 18 months from now if Big governments don't ban it.

Maybe go dig the data first since mostly ATH has been reached when there's a halving occur that's why if we cannot see a great recovery for this year then we might see this on next halving. And maybe you are right in your prediction but its kinda missing the halving so I think the movement at that time is less compare if there's a halving event since this one will hype people the same as what happen before.

[livingfree]

The cycle is very different this time.

But as you're topic says, that will be done if we're going to follow the same pattern. But, IMHO, we're not going anymore with that pattern. A lot have completely changed and those changes were unexpected.

We may go through a bear market from this year up to 2024 and by that time, that's the next halving which is scheduled to happen. And for the same pattern, it's likely that 2025-2026 is going to be the next ATH IMO.

[Ararbermas]

The usual scenario for me is that, every time Bitcoin reaches a new peak, bad news started coming in and yes even government spread FUD about Bitcoin, snd the result was a big correction as well. Though Bitcoin is not that affected because it keeps on rising from time to time so I’m also confident that after this correction, new peak will be made and it can happen this year.

some big investors want to test the potential of bitcoin first before investing or putting huge capital in it. I mean when they saw a good results that's how they will start posting and spreading negative news to bring the price down so that they can buy as well at the lowest price.. Lol that's what we called manipulation because they all knows that there will be a retest afterwards as its how the market works when there's a correction.. They're very smart mate because most of them relies on negative news just to get cheap price.

[OcTradism]

some big investors want to test the potential of bitcoin first before investing or putting huge capital in it. I mean when they saw a good results that's how they will start posting and spreading negative news to bring the price down so that they can buy as well at the lowest price.. Lol that's what we called manipulation because they all knows that there will be a retest afterwards as its how the market works when there's a correction.. They're very smart mate because most of them relies on negative news just to get cheap price.

Indeed, they don't need to test in order to join the market. In fact, if they want to test, they have to buy and sell Bitcoin on the market. Or they can try to make noise with their news, policies, investment plans, etc.

I believe that the market is more affected by investors (institutional, retail) and other entities (government-related) than people, entities or traditional investors that have yet involved in the market at any level.

[TheGreatPython]

In Dec 2013 : ATH 1200$

then it declined and stayed roughfly between 200$ and 300$ for 22 months

If it was to follow the same patern again :

Now-Oct 2023 : 11 000 - 17 000$

And we would need to wait until 2027 to have a new ATH

But for 2027, we are still having more than 60 months and you failed to include the relation between 22 months in previous and in your speculation of 60 months.

Overall, this is just a FUD. Please do not try to discourage the people who believes into halving and 10x growth.

In 2013's December bitcoin reached then ATH of $1200 and in 2017's December again reached a ATH of $19500 but you failed to consider these. Why?

This must be an incomplete speculation.

[EdenHazard]

some big investors want to test the potential of bitcoin first before investing or putting huge capital in it. I mean when they saw a good results that's how they will start posting and spreading negative news to bring the price down so that they can buy as well at the lowest price.. Lol that's what we called manipulation because they all knows that there will be a retest afterwards as its how the market works when there's a correction.. They're very smart mate because most of them relies on negative news just to get cheap price.

Indeed, they don't need to test in order to join the market. In fact, if they want to test, they have to buy and sell Bitcoin on the market. Or they can try to make noise with their news, policies, investment plans, etc.

I believe that the market is more affected by investors (institutional, retail) and other entities (government-related) than people, entities or traditional investors that have yet involved in the market at any level.

My gut has it all , of course it's not based on the data but my personal experience.

ive been here in crypto for nearly 8 years now , ups and down .. the crash ... the hype ... ive been through it all so do with everyone else i guess.
the current situation is like a boredom for whales ... especially for those who used to trade stocks and or forex , for now they see an opportunity out there and make enough money since the outbreak so yeah it's a perfect exit for them.
let them go and see the market crashed for a while , then when the momentum come , ypu have to make sure you didnt missed the train to the moon.
which yeah nobody know when exactly that momentum to come. 2027? it could be but could be sooner as well.

[acener]

If it would repeat it's cycle then we would have to wait for 4 years the last ATH was hit on 2021 so it would be around 2025.
We still have 3 more years to accumulate as much if we want to make it big in the next ATH.
I wonder it if would go down so low before it gets another ATH just like what happen in between 2017 and 2021 ATH.

[kaya11]

I think if we would follow base on the history charts, it would be predictable and easy to just win all over. It is not that easy, it's not just base on the previous charts. There are factors and it really affects the price changes. It is no surprise that it could be an ATH later or tomorrow, with in just a small span of time.

[tvplus006]

...If it was to follow the same patern again :

Now-Oct 2023 : 11 000 - 17 000$...

It is difficult to make any predictions of the bitcoin price for the next few years, as something may change significantly over the years. But at the moment I doubt the correctness of such a forecast that the price of bitcoin will decline throughout 2022. I expect that the price of bitcoin will start to increase rapidly after the positive news that is still unknown to me.

[jossiel]

I think if we would follow base on the history charts, it would be predictable and easy to just win all over. It is not that easy, it's not just base on the previous charts.

It might have been different this time and look how the market have grown so much, it could be the same as that but maybe not today.

There are factors and it really affects the price changes. It is no surprise that it could be an ATH later or tomorrow, with in just a small span of time.

It's the normal behavior of bitcoin that will show us new ATHs surprisingly. And even in the past, it had shown the same but those patterns and cycles, we don't know if from this point of time, they'll still be the same.