Bitcoin is a commodity market ?

[d5000]

Well lightning network is different than bitcoin its not to put a coin in the franky box, but its much more complicated than bitcoin, bitcoin is fundementally simple, 3 people in the world can install a node, and they will be able to run the network, have an address, mine it and make paiment in a secure manner.

The Bitcoin node software (and generally: all digital wallet software solutions) hides a lot of complexity. There is also Lightning software with a similar usability. I don't consider that a problem for adoption.

Plus LN wouldnt change much to the problem of volatlity and speculation games. [...] And i dont think the "scaling problem" is the issue at least for e commerce a delay of even 1h is still mangeable, even paypal can have similar delay.

I don't say it can directly "solve the problem", but it can lead to more acceptance by merchants and users, and thus lead to the virtuous cycle I described in the last post, where Bitcoin can stabilize and slowly become more usable as a currency, and thus "sustain its value" over time. Not only because it's instant, but also because it saves lots of transaction fees (there are still fee peaks where you pay >$5 if you want an 1-day confirmation, and this problem will probably increase in the future).

Even worse: without LN or other scaling solutions like sidechains and statechains (which are still in prototype/idea stage) Bitcoin won't support an increase of more than 50% in terms of transaction density compared with now. Layer-1-TPS, even if it could be increased to let's say 20 or 30, is simply too little for worldwide adoption as a currency. (And no, I don't want the 1 MB/4 MB block size rule to be removed. It is important to keep the network safe and open imo, but that's a completely different discussion).

I'm not an unconditional Lightning supporter, for example I support also Paul Sztorc's sidechain ideas, but I think it is a big piece in the puzzle leading to Bitcoin adoption as a currency.

[1715396225]

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[IadixDev]

i do understand your anger.
its obvious that your jealous, upset, resentful that you didnt get rich from PoS ICO scams, and though that experience set your narrative for what you think crypto economics is like. you now turn to an actual working economic model of bitcoin, but seem to not like the fact that bitcoin has a proper economic structure, or not understand bitcoins economic structure.. and so want to flame war silly stories of how bitcoin must be pyramid, commodity, useless. purely out of spite that you cant get rich for low cents per day cost like you were promised on PoS ICO scam promotions

sorry but bitcoin is nothing like ICO's or PoS coins

You dont understand anything and make wild assumptions based on not much more than bitcoin price. You should Google a bit more instead of listenning to the wrong person or the wrong voice in your head.

Making ad hominem argument is easy. Making real argument much harder.

I never participated in any ico or being advocate for pos.

The bitcoin econmic model is as a paiment system. Either its 1$ market cap or 3 billion doesnt change anything. Making it only based on bubble roller coaster for that peope can get rich out nothing but techno babbling and hoarding is not going to lead anywhere.

What i would like it to be is a functional paiment system as it was intended to be not a get rich quick scheme based on empty promises, bubble, and techno babble fomo and so on.

Otherwise it has zero interest for me but have fun selling your bitcoin bubble scam to relieve yourself from your frustration, looks like someone needs to compensate for something ?

 

[franky1]

I don't say it can directly "solve the problem", but it can lead to more acceptance by merchants and users, and thus lead to the virtuous cycle I described in the last post, where Bitcoin can stabilize and slowly become more usable as a currency, and thus "sustain its value" over time.
...

I'm not an unconditional Lightning supporter, .. but I think it is a big piece in the puzzle leading to Bitcoin adoption as a currency.

thats what bankers said when offering bank promissory notes 'pegged' to gold in the 1900's.. and now gold is not a daily use currency nor are bank notes pegged to gold.. and the wild west gold rush is dead

just watch out for the PR of "you never have to close your LN channel you can just rebalance"
"you dont need to settle to get bitcoin its expensive fee, try an altcoin settlement via atomic swap"

its the old banking game.
"dont take your gold out to move banks. here have a cheque wrote to another bank"
"dont take your gold, here have some brass, nickel and copper coins"

I never participated in any ico or being advocate for pos.

Re: [ANN][ICO][ADX]Iadix Coin POS Purenode HTML5 Blockchain, Starts 15th Feb.

Hello, im iadix developper

First I want to say there is already some working source code, and we wont "run away" after the ico ends

For the moment there is a wallet based on blackcoin that works on win 32/64 and linux, and the expérimental core im working on which is modular portable and light, easy to customize, it use no big c++ framework, so it compile easily , and include already most function to synch à blockchain, and have web app like wallets and block explorer.

The definitive coin used for the ico is not compiled with the definitive parameters yet, but it will be before the start of the ico, there is already a "demo blockchain " working currently though, and we have been testing it for a while already.

We plane to be transparent on developpement , and I should be active on it in the near future. And I can answer questions if there is any

you literally made an ICO of a PoS coin using your own username as the coin designation.

[IadixDev]

I don't say it can directly "solve the problem", but it can lead to more acceptance by merchants and users, and thus lead to the virtuous cycle I described in the last post, where Bitcoin can stabilize and slowly become more usable as a currency, and thus "sustain its value" over time.
...

I'm not an unconditional Lightning supporter, .. but I think it is a big piece in the puzzle leading to Bitcoin adoption as a currency.

thats what bankers said when offering bank promissory notes 'pegged' to gold in the 1900's.. and now gold is not a daily use currency nor are bank notes pegged to gold.. and the wild west gold rush is dead

just watch out for the PR of "you never have to close your LN channel you can just rebalance"
"you dont need to settle to get bitcoin its expensive fee, try an altcoin settlement via atomic swap"

its the old banking game.
"dont take your gold out to move banks. here have a cheque wrote to another bank"
"dont take your gold, here have some brass, nickel and copper coins"

I never participated in any ico or being advocate for pos.

Re: [ANN][ICO][ADX]Iadix Coin POS Purenode HTML5 Blockchain, Starts 15th Feb.

Hello, im iadix developper

First I want to say there is already some working source code, and we wont "run away" after the ico ends

For the moment there is a wallet based on blackcoin that works on win 32/64 and linux, and the expérimental core im working on which is modular portable and light, easy to customize, it use no big c++ framework, so it compile easily , and include already most function to synch à blockchain, and have web app like wallets and block explorer.

The definitive coin used for the ico is not compiled with the definitive parameters yet, but it will be before the start of the ico, there is already a "demo blockchain " working currently though, and we have been testing it for a while already.

We plane to be transparent on developpement , and I should be active on it in the near future. And I can answer questions if there is any

you literally made an ICO of a PoS coin using your own username as the coin designation.

Its some friend who wanted to do this but the goal was not to do a pos coin, if you read well you will see i pulled from this project, and if you look in the newer thread you will see what it is. This thread is dead for years lol for the moment its still hybrod pow/pos because its a testnet and i dont want to spend elecricity to mine a testnet.

And if you dig deeper like on my steem account you will see ive been critic of ico for a while. And i still say this in the last post of the newer thread which is more what my plan was since the beginning.

Its my friend who wanted to make this ico thing but then when i saw their plan was just to make shitcoins to sell poker chips i pulled out. Moved the github, changed the name, it was not my plan at the begining.

If doing an ico with a pos coin was what i wanted to do because im so frustated with fomo i would have kept going with this thing with my friends. I had the opportunity to do it but i didnt.  Nobody got hurt, i pulled before some real monney was engaged but its not me who wanted to do this.

They are people i lived with for years im still in contact with them but im not doing any project with them anymore.

And im still on this position since the beginning, selling crypto as an investement cannot work. And can only ends in scammy scheme and people loosing monney. Which is why i didnt do an ico. And still have no intention to do one more unless i find a good manner to represent an investement as a share/ stock or something. But for the moment the only scheme that can really work is seeing crypto currency as a paiment system, not some investement, store of value asset shinny gold to sell a bubble or whatever.

But it is a bit off topic if you want to discuss this project go in the proper thread

[IadixDev]

Well lightning network is different than bitcoin its not to put a coin in the franky box, but its much more complicated than bitcoin, bitcoin is fundementally simple, 3 people in the world can install a node, and they will be able to run the network, have an address, mine it and make paiment in a secure manner.

The Bitcoin node software (and generally: all digital wallet software solutions) hides a lot of complexity. There is also Lightning software with a similar usability. I don't consider that a problem for adoption.

Plus LN wouldnt change much to the problem of volatlity and speculation games. [...] And i dont think the "scaling problem" is the issue at least for e commerce a delay of even 1h is still mangeable, even paypal can have similar delay.

I don't say it can directly "solve the problem", but it can lead to more acceptance by merchants and users, and thus lead to the virtuous cycle I described in the last post, where Bitcoin can stabilize and slowly become more usable as a currency, and thus "sustain its value" over time. Not only because it's instant, but also because it saves lots of transaction fees (there are still fee peaks where you pay >$5 if you want an 1-day confirmation, and this problem will probably increase in the future).

Even worse: without LN or other scaling solutions like sidechains and statechains (which are still in prototype/idea stage) Bitcoin won't support an increase of more than 50% in terms of transaction density compared with now. Layer-1-TPS, even if it could be increased to let's say 20 or 30, is simply too little for worldwide adoption as a currency. (And no, I don't want the 1 MB/4 MB block size rule to be removed. It is important to keep the network safe and open imo, but that's a completely different discussion).

I'm not an unconditional Lightning supporter, for example I support also Paul Sztorc's sidechain ideas, but I think it is a big piece in the puzzle leading to Bitcoin adoption as a currency.

Even if the transactions volume is a problem for large scale adoption, already can see 75% - 95% of the volume is the speculative use on exchange from people expecting a high return on their stash, which is also what is driving the price up, and energy use for mining very high.

But even so the main problem i see is even let say tomorrow there is a real organic demand as a currency based on a sustainable economic value, then the price is going to rise, the hoarder are going to cash out and crash the price.

Meaning anyone who want to really pull an use as a currency has to pay the hoarders lords waiting for their lambo without bringing any value to the network which is currently maybe 90-95% of the economic value today.

And then you are still going to have the crazy price / sentiment roller coaster of people seeing this as an investement mostly depending on hype campaign and techno babble, price manipulation, bubbles and bursts and only wanting more of this. Waiting some third world country to crash their economy and adopt bitcoin to cash out their profits.

And lightning network or any scaling solution is not going to solve this.

[franky1]

Meaning anyone who want to really pull an use as a currency has to pay the hoarders lords waiting for their lambo without bringing any value to the network which is currently maybe 90-95% of the economic value today.

just because it needed people to buy 10,000btc to buy 2 pizza's in 2010. does not mean with the price rise people need to buy the same 10,000 coins now for 2 pizza's.. where you think that means it costs people $430,000,000 to 'pay the hoarder lords' for 2 pizza..
you are wrong.

in 2010 it cost $25 for two pizza's..
in 2022 i can still pay $25 and get 0.00058139 and use that 0.00058139 to get 2 pizza
i can still use bitcoin with $25 to get $25 worth of pizza.. nothing has changed

i know i know. in egyptian times pharaohs only needed to pay for a whip to slap 1000 slaves into getting the pharaoh 50kg of gold.
now it costs atleast $1.5mill in excavators and sluicemachine and labour to get 50KG of gold.
but in the days of pharaohs. a slave would only get bread for 50grams of gold(1.76 ounces)
these days you can get bread for 0.02grams

you dont need to pay lords or pharaohs for their 50kg of gold or their 10000btc. you can buy miligrams and sats

..
your argument is based on you just wishing that you could still get 10000btc for $25 today, and upset that you would have to pay $430k today for 10,000 or only get 0.00058btc for $25

well im sorry but houses in the 1950's may have sold for $5k. but now they are worth $250k, you cant travel back in time to get a house for $5k. and if you could the only reason why you want to go back in time to 'beat the economy' is because you want to 'get rich' like the people that realised real estate economy bitcoins economy before you did.. dont hate it..
just accept you now know about bitcoin and know bitcoin will be around for years and the economics are still the same meaning you can be a hoarder too now and take your $25 (0.00058) and get more for it in the future.

here is a thought.
instead of being jealous of early adopters for taking the risk of the less known asset from years ago.. instead be proud of the risk they took.

if there were 2 people. 1 bought into a PoS and 1 bought into a PoW. they would both on day 1 be taking a risk on the future potential.
however by use of their example you can see the PoS investor failed and the PoW investor won. and so with this test you are now more risk averse to PoS and more safe investing in PoW.

yes PoS economics are not the same as PoW and it has now been proven by early adopter example to be the case

[IadixDev]

your argument is based on you just wishing that you could still get 10000btc for $25 today, and upset that you would have to pay $430k today for 10,000 or only get 0.00058btc for $25

My argument is not based on this, your argument is based on false assumptions and projection. I dont care about how many bitcoin i have at which price if the value is just going to be a roller coaster made of bubbles and crashes every two monthes, requiring to spend my life on trading chart to know if its going x2 or /2 in the next week. Again i have zero interest in those scheme. The rest is your imagination and projections

[Gyfts]

If this is correct it mean some kind of "silver thursday" at some point when hoarders make the price so high nobody really want to buy it anymore and it ends up loosing all value on the market.

Hoarders just make the circulation if Bitcoin decrease, which isn't a bad thing necessarily. Just means the coins in circulation become more valuable. People have also been concerned that the ~21 million coin cap (minus the coins that are permanently lost) isn't enough for global adoption.  The number of coins doesn't matter, nor does it matter if the coins are finite. As long as some portion of the total supply is in circulation, the price will be adjusted due to demand.

I wouldn't anticipate hoarders to cause BTC's price to fall. I'd think it'd have the opposite effect by causing demand to increase.

[IadixDev]

If this is correct it mean some kind of "silver thursday" at some point when hoarders make the price so high nobody really want to buy it anymore and it ends up loosing all value on the market.

Hoarders just make the circulation if Bitcoin decrease, which isn't a bad thing necessarily. Just means the coins in circulation become more valuable. People have also been concerned that the ~21 million coin cap (minus the coins that are permanently lost) isn't enough for global adoption.  The number of coins doesn't matter, nor does it matter if the coins are finite. As long as some portion of the total supply is in circulation, the price will be adjusted due to demand.

I wouldn't anticipate hoarders to cause BTC's price to fall. I'd think it'd have the opposite effect by causing demand to increase.

The demand ok but for what purpose ? Hoarding it again to pull the price up again ?

[franky1]

market price is not dependant on the 19mill coins in circulation(hoarded or lost)
its dependant on the small amount of those 19mill that are actually traded(on market orders, deposited in exchanges)

yep market price only changes when orders are actually filled by actually having coin on the market.

the hoarders refusing to sell are not affecting the price. because they are not selling.. they are hoarding.
heres a few motto's for you:
a price does not move without a sell
for every seller is a buyer
buyers and sellers work together to make/set/change a price

yep buyers and sellers affect the price. not hoarders

its not hoarders philosophy you should interrogate. its the mindset of the day traders. and what 'value' they see as their purchase/sell limits.

once you grasp this concept then you can move one step closer to getting your answer answered about how markets and price valuations work.

so take some time to understand its the markets that are involved in the market price. and users in the market that decide on a value window by their collective emotions and limits that set the window of value for the price to speculate inbetween.

i have a nice hoard from 2012. and IF i were to put my coins into a market i can(then and only then) affect the market.
but guess what. i am not affecting the market. because i am hoarding

so try to understand the values of those who actually are on the market
i already gave you a few tip-bit examples of things you can research into in previous posts.

and i strangely know you will probably not want to seek and answer, and just want to slam insults just to enforce your pre-formed opinion.
but please just give it a try, research some options. and then you can either verify your opinion or change your opinion. just dont fear testing your opinion, with worrying that your opinion might be wrong.
out of curiosity.
is your understanding of what you feel as the way markets work, based purely on your experience of commodities.
where you see any commodity in circulation, need to be sold in X days.
is that why you dont like hoarding, because its not something you experienced.

is so, the only reason no one hoards beef, milk, orange juice, coffee beans.. is simple.
those commodities have a shelf life. hoard them too long and they go rotten

this is another reason why bitcoin is not a commodity, but an asset. because it has no shelf life forcing it to be sold quick.
(other crapcoins have 'demurrage' features, where bits of coin are lost if hoarded)

but bitcoin is not trying to be a commodity. its an asset. and assets are suppose to be owned long term

[IadixDev]

market price is not dependant on the 19mill coins in circulation(hoarded or lost)
its dependant on the small amount of those 19mill that are actually traded(on market orders, deposited in exchanges)

yep market price only changes when orders are actually filled by actually having coin on the market.

the hoarders refusing to sell are not affecting the price. because they are not selling.. they are hoarding.

But they are hoarding with the sole purpose of selling it at higher price to make a profit .. But this dynamic was studied since the beginning, bitcoin has a strong appeal to bubble, for the reaons that the price is completly flexible, that it's deflationists with less and less being mined over time, and the value is indexed on nothing. So there is always this expection that the price can increase in the future. But if it's the only reason to buy it, it cannot work in sustainable manner. The only way it can gain sustainable value is if there is a legit demand for it's utility value as a paiment system.

heres a few motto's for you:
a price does not move without a sell
for every seller is a buyer
buyers and sellers work together to make/set/change a price

yep buyers and sellers affect the price. not hoarders

its not hoarders philosophy you should interrogate. its the mindset of the day traders. and what 'value' they see as their purchase/sell limits.

once you grasp this concept then you can move one step closer to getting your answer answered about how markets and price valuations work.

so take some time to understand its the markets that are involved in the market price. and users in the market that decide on a value window by their collective emotions and limits that set the window of value for the price to speculate inbetween.


i have a nice hoard from 2012. and IF i were to put my coins into a market i can(then and only then) affect the market.
but guess what. i am not affecting the market. because i am hoarding

so try to understand the values of those who actually are on the market
i already gave you a few tip-bit examples of things you can research into in previous posts.

and i strangely know you will probably not want to seek and answer, and just want to slam insults just to enforce your pre-formed opinion.
but please just give it a try, research some options. and then you can either verify your opinion or change your opinion. just dont fear testing your opinion, with worrying that your opinion might be wrong.

But the two are completely related, hoarders only hoards because they are also traders and waiting for the good moment to sell with a profit. They don't just hoard to have a nice bunch of shiny coins on their wallet to put on their shelves as a decoration.

out of curiosity.
is your understanding of what you feel as the way markets work, based purely on your experience of commodities.
where you see any commodity in circulation, need to be sold in X days.
is that why you dont like hoarding, because its not something you experienced.

is so, the only reason no one hoards beef, milk, orange juice, coffee beans.. is simple.
those commodities have a shelf life. hoard them too long and they go rotten

this is another reason why bitcoin is not a commodity, but an asset. because it has no shelf life forcing it to be sold quick.
(other crapcoins have 'demurrage' features, where bits of coin are lost if hoarded)

but bitcoin is not trying to be a commodity. its an asset. and assets are suppose to be owned long term

Well i have experience in many area, my understanding i think is more based on how stocks as investement gaining value really work, because i learned this with people with 30 year of experience in wallet street market, from the old school of thought akin to warret buffet. It's even the question that was asked in the thread where satoshi answered, it was are bitcoin like stocks of investement, and it's not.

Commodity can also have long term value, think about furnitures, maybe cars, but the main point is that they have utility value, and their price is mostly made out of their utility value. Unlike stocks whose value is appreciated on a future potential. When you buy a stock, explicity you are buying something that doesn't yet exist and still has to be created. Hence why there is a risk in stock investement, and also why it can rise in value, eventually a lot if the thing being created out of the investement bring lot of utility value with royaltees and no competition.

Bitcoin is not a commodity maybe, but the point is that in the context of asking if it's an investement like a stock, the answer is it's more like a commodity, because it's value it's mostly derived from utility value. It's the only way it make sense.

As an "investement" the profit can only be based on unsustainable various kind of great fool games, ponzis, highly speculative bubbles and burst with a value based on nothing solid at all. The mining is not the value of bitcoin. Nobody would pay for a bunch of hash. The value is derived from it's utility value as a decentralized paiment secured by pow. The pow is a mean to an end, not what the value is based on.

[franky1]

But they are hoarding with the sole purpose of selling it at higher price to make a profit .. But this dynamic was studied since the beginning, bitcoin has a strong appeal to bubble, for the reaons that the price is completly flexible,

But the two are completely related, hoarders only hoards because they are also traders and waiting for the good moment to sell with a profit. They don't just hoard to have a nice bunch of shiny coins on their wallet to put on their shelves as a decoration.

i have coin.. not just to hoard, but to spend too. i pass it to another person on the blockchain. without me having to use a exchange market. my utility of bitcoin and my hoarding of bitcoin does not affect the price of bitcoin, due to my activity/inactivity(both not market order related). bitcoin is not just a 2 option, hoard or market exchange. its also personal swaps, and personal lock-up for altnets, where altnets then move value in different currency.
you can be a trader on things like localbitcoins and not affect the market price of coinbase/binance

what affects the market price of the viewed PRICE of bitcoin is the trades that happen on the prominent exchanges.

i can if i chose to. lock up bitcoin(hoard) peg it to an altnet. use the altnet to swap for an altcoin and change the altcoins price on a prominent altcoin exchange. without impacting bitcoins price and without moving bitcoin after the lock. thus appear as if bitcoin is still being hoarded, yet my 'funds'(wealth) have moved on.
and whomever i locked my bitcoin into. then has an acquisition cost of today. meaning he wont sell today at 0 profit.
and i certainly didnt(in hypothetical scenario) sell my bitcoin. so the bitcoin that i was hoarding for ~10 years is not now deemed as valued at its 10year old value. nor has this allotment changed the bitcoin market price.

so as you can see there are alot more nuances, and depth to value and price and what effects both

Commodity can also have long term value, think about furnitures, maybe cars,

you dont buy furniture or cars on the commodities market.
you buy beef, oil, wheat. raw materials.... which later (after market) become products (assets/stock)
you mention cars.. so steel, lithium, oil would be the commodity, which later after market is used to build a car

Bitcoin is not a commodity maybe, but the point is that in the context of asking if it's an investment like a stock, the answer is it's more like a commodity, because it's value it's mostly derived from utility value. It's the only way it make sense.

bitcoin is a new asset class that has many functions. it can fit on the forex(currency) market. it can sit on the investments stock/shares market(ETF)
but it wont be a commodity in terms of a raw material used in production of another product.


also. you mention "value derived".
pick anything. lets say milk(again)
a retail customer may value milk at between £1-£1.50 as thats the value window they expect to all pay somewhere in between.
the price however changes due to the retailers choice to sell it at good value(near £1) or sell it at premium(near £1.50).
EG all retailers refuse to sell below £1 and all customers refuse to buy above £1.50

the reasons to sell it at different prices(within the value window) can be things like:
+greed(profit)
- wanting to gain more custom
+higher production cost from farm
-lower production cost from farm
+higher acquisition cost from wholesaler
-lower acquisition cost from wholesaler
-just have so much and its time to get paid for what they have, even at cost

also on the flip side of the market offer, the buyer might only want to buy:
-cheap out of greed.
+pay a premium if its something they need and cant get cheaper by other methods.
+pay a premium because the other methods are not easy to get to

but these buyer/seller PRICE negotiations happen inside the general value window of £1-£1.50
yes one week milk might be £1.20, the next £1.40. the next £1.50 and then offered at 20% off(back to £1.20)

but on the outside of the box economics. right now the milk value window is £1-£1.50.. where as 20 years ago it was £0.60-£1.. where by the PRICE was fluctuating within the window of 20 years ago

[d5000]

But even so the main problem i see is even let say tomorrow there is a real organic demand as a currency based on a sustainable economic value, then the price is going to rise, the hoarder are going to cash out and crash the price.

I don't really see this danger.

First, there are many hoarders, all with their own entry point and "desired ROI". Many of the early adopters from 2010/11 already should have cashed out 90%+ of their holdings. So there are always some cashing out, some buying in.

Now imagine adoption grows further and further. While some will cash out "the traditional way" on the way upwards, there will be many who will prefer holding. Or even better: trading their BTC to goods like houses, cars, gold and so on. If there is enough adoption, then this will not hurt the price: it will strengthen BTC as a currency even more as it will begin to really circulate.

One advantage even for holders who absolutely don't give a f* about Bitcoin adoption which could bring them to "cash out" buying things directly with BTC (and thus, strenghten the "currency" aspect) is that there may be less (or none, like now) KYC/AML measures than if they cash out via an exchange.

And I bet that only a minority would cash out everything, most will cash out, let's say, 50-70% of their holdings at each major price mark - e.g. 100K, "gold parity" (400-500K), 1 million. (I personally don't know if Bitcoin can reach a million USD, but gold parity should be doable.)

A world with real Bitcoin adoption would be very different from now when nobody really knows if Bitcoin really catches on and 30-50% crashes are possible so many are tempted to rapidly take profits after a big price increase because value could "go to zero". In a "Bitcoin adoption" world, in contrast, there a lot of "real value" involved, a large ecosystem of businesses working with Bitcoin, so it's out of the question that Bitcoin "will fail". There would be probably even entities and persons backing the price in some way, for example merchants who are benefitted by Bitcoin adoption could offer fixed prices in BTC for their goods.

And then you are still going to have the crazy price / sentiment roller coaster of people seeing this as an investement mostly depending on hype campaign and techno babble, price manipulation, bubbles and bursts and only wanting more of this. Waiting some third world country to crash their economy and adopt bitcoin to cash out their profits.

I think these phenomena are temporary. Ethereum managed to survive the ICO scam wave of 2017/18, which was really bad and investors were very naive. The 2021 "Gamestop/Elon Musk wave" is perhaps different because no real scam is involved, but it also will lead to many naive investors broke, which will be much more careful in the future. With each of these waves, investors mature, and are increasingly less prone to put their money in an ultra-risky gamble. This also will help stabilize the price.

And lightning network or any scaling solution is not going to solve this.

Like I already wrote, Lightning is only one of many tools which could lead to more merchant and "usage as a currency" adoption. It won't affect the "technobabble" guys at all, it's a different user group which will grow independently of it. So while it's true that "Lightning will not solve it", the macro-trend of more currency usage will eventually solve it, if it continues.

Of course, Bitcoin can fail on the path to adoption, but I'm optimistic, and the Bitcoin community can also help to not let it fail, promoting long-term thinking and discouraging the "gamble" mentality a bit.

@franky1: Please don't derail, I won't discuss Lightning advantages/disadvantages here. There are many other threads for that, thanks.

[Similificator]

Such a good read. Even with the topic or thought being pretty common, it still piques my interest and makes me ponder every time I encounter it. The main thing here though is the people's greed. As long as greed exists, there is always money to be made, and when there is money to be made anything that can be exploited will he exploited regardless of what it is. Be it crypto currencies or natural resources. The price of bitcoin, we can only speculate until all coins get mined. But even then, price will still continue to be volatile. Either way, we won't reach such time so I prefer to focus on the near future instead and secure a future for my offsprings leaving the far future for them to oonder about.

[franky1]

As long as greed exists, there is always money to be made, and when there is money to be made anything that can be exploited will he exploited regardless of what it is. Be it crypto currencies or natural resources.

philosophy and nature:
though from nature of caveman and apes. we have had the natural 'ability'' of greed and exploitation. although modern civilised culture has managed to disrupt and suppress the exploitation, via laws of many things, such as making theft illegal and fraud.
however laws are still loose in regards to greed. gluttony is not a crime. capitalism isnt a crime. so in modern times greed is still part of our nature and culture that has been allowed.

everyone wants more then they have. if we didnt we would starve, by rationing food. we would be poor by not seeking wealth, we would be unentertained by not wanting more from life.
though greed can lead to exploitation, it doesnt mean it will. thats why bitcoin is code, because code makes rules.

bitcoin is decentralised to avoid exploitation by hackers trying to edit block data and transactions.
bitcoin is immutable to avoid the exploitation by chargeback refund scammers
bitcoin requires signatures to avoid the exploitation by fake identities pretending they own the coin

[Similificator]

As long as greed exists, there is always money to be made, and when there is money to be made anything that can be exploited will he exploited regardless of what it is. Be it crypto currencies or natural resources.

philosophy and nature:
though from nature of caveman and apes. we have had the natural 'ability'' of greed and exploitation. although modern civilised culture has managed to disrupt and suppress the exploitation, via laws of many things, such as making theft illegal and fraud.
however laws are still loose in regards to greed. gluttony is not a crime. capitalism isnt a crime. so in modern times greed is still part of our nature and culture that has been allowed.

everyone wants more then they have. if we didnt we would starve, by rationing food. we would be poor by not seeking wealth, we would be unentertained by not wanting more from life.
though greed can lead to exploitation, it doesnt mean it will. thats why bitcoin is code, because code makes rules.

bitcoin is decentralised to avoid exploitation by hackers trying to edit block data and transactions.
bitcoin is immutable to avoid the exploitation by chargeback refund scammers
bitcoin requires signatures to avoid the exploitation by fake identities pretending they own the coin

Indeed greed is vital but it seems I came short of explaining. What I actually meant was excessive greed. Since too much of anything won't do any good. And by exploitation (since I am not good with techy and programming topics) I meant taking advantage of patience, kindness, naivety, etc., or manipulating market through a wide variety of ways. Having Musk's brilliant way of leading sheeple as an example, or if conspiracies are your thing, whales communicating with each other to control market pricess and take from small guys their bitcoin (or any crypto in that matter) cheaply. Which may morally look wrong in the eyes of some but is the law of the jungle as we call it.

Which is why I tend to focus on things I can control instead and make the best of the cards I'm dealt with to avoid headaches.

(If quite messy to understand, apologies. Really not that good at expressing thoughts since this isn't my primary language)

[franky1]

excessive greed can lead to exploitation. but thats why bitcoin is good, it has more rules than say bank notes(cash)
you can write rules into bitcoin and into exchanges.

for instance to avoid large volatile pump and dumps on exchanges. the exchange can code a 'circuit break' that freezes market trading if the price dips by more then x% in one order, or one hour of orders

i already sated some summarised bitcoin features that circumvent some exploitations, but bitcoin also has many other rules to protect users. the only thing it cant protect is human emotion. so people still need to keep themselves in check and be responsible for their actions.

EG human emotion in cash transactions. is where for instance a retailer yesterday had price tickets for milk at £1.20 and overnight the retailer changed the ticket to show £1.40, and customers then have to just accept they are paying 1/6th more

where as on bitcoin exchange markets, the exchange could code rules so that anyone making a sell cant sell 1000 in one order and instead limit it to 1btc per order, aswell as limiting how many orders from that user can be allowed per minute. to prevent fast spikes/crashes

in code, any rule can be made, thats how code works. it makes rules.
bitcoin has much more safety potential and already active safety than say bank notes/human emotion

[Similificator]

excessive greed can lead to exploitation. but thats why bitcoin is good, it has more rules than say bank notes(cash)
you can write rules into bitcoin and into exchanges.

for instance to avoid large volatile pump and dumps on exchanges. the exchange can code a 'circuit break' that freezes market trading if the price dips by more then x% in one order, or one hour of orders

i already sated some summarised bitcoin features that circumvent some exploitations, but bitcoin also has many other rules to protect users. the only thing it cant protect is human emotion. so people still need to keep themselves in check and be responsible for their actions.

EG human emotion in cash transactions. is where for instance a retailer yesterday had price tickets for milk at £1.20 and overnight the retailer changed the ticket to show £1.40, and customers then have to just accept they are paying 1/6th more

where as on bitcoin exchange markets, the exchange could code rules so that anyone making a sell cant sell 1000 in one order and instead limit it to 1btc per order, aswell as limiting how many orders from that user can be allowed per minute. to prevent fast spikes/crashes

in code, any rule can be made, thats how code works. it makes rules.
bitcoin has much more safety potential and already active safety than say bank notes/human emotion

So to sum it up, conspiracy about price manipulation really isn't real and is hindered by the rules set by the codes? Welp. It seems I am scared of nonsense then and that the real problem is not price manipulation but crowd manipulation and one's control on his or her self emotions when making decisions. Every day is another chance to learn. Thanks.

[franky1]

alot of people think its "whale" manipulation of exchanges.
but after studying things. its not. its actually the minnows


in 2013-4 when the markets were $400 there were whales making walls of 1000btc
obviously with prices at $40k now it means a similar 'wall' only needs to be 10btc deep

this is because although the market is portrayed as supply and demand. where instead of 2013-4 supply was only 12mill coins and now there are 19mill.. the more supply in circulation has not resulted in more supply on the market.
eg. if average order was 2btc in 2013-4, youd think with 50% more in circulation average orders would now be 3btc

however, most market orders now are of 0.01btc-10btc not 1btc-1000btc in earlier years.

meaning there is probably an equal 100x less coin in exchanges offsetting an equal 100x more price.

sellers have figured out that buyers are not spending more money. they instead are spending the same amount.
so if someone in 2013 wanted to spend $600 a month he would get 1.5btc in 2013-4. where as now he would get 0.015btc.

the market price does not mean someone in 2013-4 who regularly paid $600 a month to buy crypto is now buying $60,000 a month.
buyers value per order has not changed. and so its the sellers who dont want to crash the market by selling 1.5btc now or even 2.25btc with there being 50% more supply in circulation than in 2013-4.
instead decide to play the economics game, offer smaller amounts of coin

imagine it this way. a seller.. with 1.5btc. wanting $60k
right now he can make 2 choices.
sell 1.5btc at $40k/btc =$60k fiat
sell 0.1btc(15 times) at $4.01k= $60.15k   (0.1*15=1.5)

sellers find it easier to not try selling 1.5btc at 40.1 as that creates a wall keeping price below that, but if he has small orders that fill of 0.01 for $401, they fill fast and are seen as a price lift to $40.1, even without buyers having to buy up tens of thousands of dollars to achieve it.

what im saying is dont worry about the only last few whales pushing 10btc.. instead watch out for the minnows putting in 0.01btc orders spaced out by $1 a coin meaning small orders causing large movements in prices

sellers realise instead of trying to push 1.5 coins on a market which can cause the price to go down. if they sell small portions in small amounts at a slight premium. the buyers dont notice the big hit as much. but it pushes the market price

ill add this for reference

screenshot taken from binance whilst writing this post


When it only takes  0.32725btc to                         When it only takes  0.31331btc to
change the priceby $6(38772-38766)                   change the priceby $7 (38773-38780)


then you know the problem is not due to lots of orders or lots of buyers/sellers.  but instead its the LACK of traders, which means that a price can change, not by 1cent amounts but by $2-$3 in one order line fill

if there were thousands of users:
which would put orders 1cent above the next and so order fills would only move by 1cent
or
many people will put lots of coin on one priceline meaning it would appear  as 1-20btc not 0.02btc
but instead.. look at
SELL 3->4 one order fill can change the price by $3.39
BUY 2->3 one order fill can change the price by $4.35

code can prevent big whale wallers, but human emotion and greed will play the opposite and find a way to play the markets

[Similificator]

This has been very helpful and now I am seeing the market in a widely different perspective. It seems I have been scaring myself with the wrong things. Thanks for sharing this information sir. Really feels good to know a bit more which can improve my future decisions. Right now, having this information I would like to ask sir if you would permit me to quote this information and share it to the local board so I can help some of my countrymen who also have the same misconceptions as I.