The Russian economy is on the verge of collapse. What to expect?

[DrBeer]

As you know, now Russia is building up huge amounts of weapons and manpower on the borders of Ukraine, and according to available information, the plans of the terrorists from the Kremlin are to create a provocation (similar to the provocation of Nazi Germany on the border with Poland in 1939, and the USSR on the borders of Finland) , or casus belli, with a high probability plans to continue, but already on a global scale, the war in Ukraine. The US and the EU, as part of containment, announced very harsh sanctions, which, in the event of the start of such actions, will be applied to Russia.

After this news, and in light of the activities of the US, Britain, the EU, this week, the Russian budget has already lost about 2 trillion rubles, due to the fall in share prices, the collapse of stock exchanges and other reactions of the financial market to potential risks.

At the same time, given the difficult, tense situation within the country (total poverty of the population, falling incomes, destruction of social infrastructure, etc.), the Central Bank of Russia came up with the following initiative: "It proposes at the legislative level to prohibit the use of the infrastructure of the Russian financial market for any operations with cryptocurrencies, as well as to prohibit financial institutions from investing in cryptocurrencies and related instruments."

For what ? In order to block one of the most convenient channels for withdrawing funds from the "sinking ship" to other jurisdictions, which will further worsen the position of the strange terrorist.

What economic problems do you think real sanctions will lead to if the Kremlin's plans to start a large-scale war come true? How will this affect the crypto market as a whole?

PS. In the meantime, without waiting for the ban "More than 6 billion rubles were withdrawn from Binance after the idea of ​​the Central Bank to ban cryptocurrency
A crypto investor transferred USDT stablecoins to an unknown address. Transaction detected by Whale Alert"

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[Hydrogen]

Its been the same story with russia for many years now. The united states, EU, UN and NATO seek to keep russia contained. Strict economic sanctions are imposed on russia to make them dependant on china as an economic trading partner. China pretends to be russia's friend so they can get close to russia and steal all of russia's advanced military technology.

Russia rattles its saber and makes threats. Whether its russia threatening to invade sweden, russian bombers flying near to alaska, russian military ships sailing to within 30 miles of hawaii or troop build ups on ukraine's border, its all the same. So far they have all been empty threats for near to 10 years.

Whether or not that will change in the future, remains to be seen.

The EU and most european nations have weak militaries and rely primarily on the united states for safety. If american inflation rises, it could diminish the united states ability to function as global police. Which could leave many parts of the world undefended if an economic crisis occurs. If russia does attack, the best time to do so, could be in the event of an american economic crisis.

There are many pieces of the puzzle and they are all moving at the same time. Which makes it hard to say what the future will look like.

[odolvlobo]

I'm really curious about how Russians feel about the impending invasion of Ukraine.

[cabron]

Its been the same story with russia for many years now. The united states, EU, UN and NATO seek to keep russia contained. Strict economic sanctions are imposed on russia to make them dependant on china as an economic trading partner. China pretends to be russia's friend so they can get close to russia and steal all of russia's advanced military hardware.

Russia rattles its saber and makes threats. Whether its russia threatening to invade sweden, russian bombers flying near to alaska, russian military ships sailing to within 30 miles of hawaii or troop build ups on ukraine's border, its all the same. So far they have all been empty threats for near to 10 years.

Whether or not that will change in the future, remains to be seen.

The EU and most european nations have weak militaries and rely primarily on the united states for safety. If american inflation rises, it could diminish the united states ability to function as global police. Which could leave many parts of the world undefended if an economic crisis occurs. If russia does attack, the best time to do so, could be in the event of an american economic crisis.

There are many pieces of the puzzle and they are all moving at the same time. Which makes it hard to say what the future will look like.

Russia is not going to war. I don't think the Chinese who invested more of the lands in the US will like it. Some big businesses in US are now owned by the Chinese, they'd rather stand along by playing a long game here by improving their economy since Germany is on thier side now with thier joint project like the oil pipeline. While on the other side of the world oil prices will double, on thier side, it could be cheaper. All of them are interested in the Chinese Belt and Road too, so that might just be the strategy.

[Haunebu]

Putin is a crazy dude who is difficult to read even by people close to him which is why I wouldn't be surprised if he actually told his 1 lakh troops to start fighting even if it means screwing Russia in the long-term.

He could also simply be trying to put up smokescreen just like in the past in order to acquire more power in Eastern Europe which is certainly possible considering how countries like US, UK etc are currently reacting to this move.

Also, Russia could end up banning cryptocurrencies completely, but this would just cause a short-term impact on the cryptocurrency market in my opinion.

[Obito]

I'm really curious about how Russians feel about the impending invasion of Ukraine.

They're probably against it but given how censorship driven the country is and the government are against the people being against their will, I am pretty sure that they're going to agree with it nonetheless. They're not going to easily collapse but I am pretty sure that when it happens, they're going to find a way for the people to work for it instead of them. The current Russian government is openly corrupt so no wonder that they're facing a financial collapse.

[Ozero]

Even Russian economists have already calculated that in the event of an invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine and the introduction of already prepared tough sanctions against Russia by the United States and Europe, the Russian ruble will fall by at least 20 percent. Most likely, this is even a very optimistic forecast. After all, if sanctions make it impossible to make payments in dollars at the international level, this will lead to the collapse of the Russian economy. Anticipating the possibility of such a situation, previously invested foreign investments leave Russia en masse. The Putin government, with its reckless expansionist policies, has brought the country to a major dead end on all fronts. A ban on the use of cryptocurrencies will not correct the situation. Capital is leaving and will definitely leave Russia. If Putin does not give up his desire to forcibly recreate the Soviet Union by practical actions, any of his actions can lead to very serious consequences and the collapse of the Russian Federation.

[paxmao]

I'm really curious about how Russians feel about the impending invasion of Ukraine.

If you ask a Cuban about how do they feel about Castro regime they will tell you "no nos podemos quejar". This is an expression that often means "we cannot complain", meaning that things are all right. However, there is an obvious double entendre on this one, meaning we cannot complain - as we are not allowed to. I think that is the state of things in Russia. "You cannot complain".

Putin touches the right buttons on the Russian cultural pride and sense of a being a superior country and it seems to work well with a large part of a population. You can be poor or you can struggle economically, but at least you are Russian and thus better. And this works until you are hungry and no longer feel superior, see Roman Empire decline, Germany after WWI, the USSR itself,...

[kryptqnick]

I understand your sentiment towards Russia because I'm also (not sure about you, but assuming based on previous encounters here) from Ukraine, but only around 12% live in poverty in Russia,  which is significantly lower than estimates about Ukraine. There also doesn't seem to be evidence that incomes are falling, and, overall, while Russia is investing into the potential war, I don't think it's currently a threat to its economy (not without those heavy sanctions that will hopefully follow in an even of the invasion). As for the proposal of their Central bank, I don't think it's for preventing withdrawals of funds, actually, because it's mentioned that even if this proposed bill is passed, people will be allowed to use offshore accounts with cryptos. I think its economy will suffer if sanctions are introduced, and I believe Russia can benefit from cryptos if that happens, but the effect on the whole crypto market shouldn't be devastating.

[laredo7mm]

What economic problems do you think real sanctions will lead to if the Kremlin's plans to start a large-scale war come true? How will this affect the crypto market as a whole?

From past experience, we can see that the Western blockade on Russia could have a significant effect.  In 2014, Putin's aggressive plans were thwarted by the blockade.  Through this blockade, Russia is losing $50 billion in economic growth every year.  But in spite of all this, Russia has not given up its aggressive attitude but is increasingly moving towards its neighboring states.  It is clear that Putin has mastered his power and is not worried about aggression in Ukraine.  Putin will at any cost prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, even if it means using military force.  However, Russia has denied the allegations in a statement issued Friday stating "Similar, baseless allegations concerning Russia's intelligence have been made more than once.  Russia's foreign minister has compared the current situation to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.  On the other hand, according to Western intelligence, Russia's invasion of Ukraine could begin as early as 2022.

Russian crypto ban already impacts the market negatively. But I do not think it could do any damage like the chain did last year.

[kaya11]

Good thing it is not just the Russians that are using crypto currencies, I think it would just be short term effect in the market even they totally banned all crypto related transactions and Business. Large scale War on the hand is hardly to be expected, as the these top 3 Powerful countries (China, USA, Russia) would be waiting on who will fight among themselves, while the other is waiting to fight the wounded. They would not go expending much, unless there is a greater cause like oil popping up were it could power the Nation for centuries.
I feel bad for the people of Russia who are making money out of crypto, especially this time were this Pandemic hits World with long term effects negative in our economy.

[tygeade]

As you know, now Russia is building up huge amounts of weapons and manpower on the borders of Ukraine, and according to available information, the plans of the terrorists from the Kremlin are to create a provocation (similar to the provocation of Nazi Germany on the border with Poland in 1939, and the USSR on the borders of Finland) , or casus belli, with a high probability plans to continue, but already on a global scale, the war in Ukraine. The US and the EU, as part of containment, announced very harsh sanctions, which, in the event of the start of such actions, will be applied to Russia.

After this news, and in light of the activities of the US, Britain, the EU, this week, the Russian budget has already lost about 2 trillion rubles, due to the fall in share prices, the collapse of stock exchanges and other reactions of the financial market to potential risks.

I don't see it happening but if the terrorists succeeds provoking this war which will result in Russia to prohibit the use of the infrastructure of the Russian financial market for any operations with cryptocurrencies, as well as to prohibit financial institutions from investing in cryptocurrencies and related instruments.
 
I think it is going to have little impact on the market, already six billion rubles is out of the market and even more is going to go out, it is not really a great new for crypto in my opinion.

[cabron]

I'm really curious about how Russians feel about the impending invasion of Ukraine.

If you ask a Cuban about how do they feel about Castro regime they will tell you "no nos podemos quejar". This is an expression that often means "we cannot complain", meaning that things are all right. However, there is an obvious double entendre on this one, meaning we cannot complain - as we are not allowed to. I think that is the state of things in Russia. "You cannot complain".

Putin touches the right buttons on the Russian cultural pride and sense of a being a superior country and it seems to work well with a large part of a population. You can be poor or you can struggle economically, but at least you are Russian and thus better. And this works until you are hungry and no longer feel superior, see Roman Empire decline, Germany after WWI, the USSR itself,...

Its also what happened in Libya. Gadafi like Putin understand how to rule a country and without him, there could be chaos and look what Libya is today?

They tried changing the leader in the country and theres a mess. And are the people there regretting? Yes.  They regret listening to the destabilizers. Now people are sellling kids for food, slavery in the country is rampant.


US is in verge too. If Biden wouldnt declare military law, people in US will shot each other, homelessness, Asian hate in the country spreads. Rob stores in daylight and all these are already is happening.

Theyd really need to change the goverment or replace Biden with a strongman like Putin.

Dictator is not a bad word centuries ago, leaders were proud to be called Dictator centuries ago. Its only today that we have another view of this word. Who decides its bad to be a dictator?

[fiulpro]

The Russian economy is crumbling to not just current situations but also their Pride as well. If Putin decides to attack Ukraine their remaining power will be used for their army and for the war that would not just involve Russia and Ukraine but UK, US every country that there is and might cause a world war. Their economy is crumbling, the cases are rising I do think the bank would try and stabilize their currency by selling their existing stocks but at the end it might turn extremely bad. I live in Ukraine and we are seeing back and forth funny tweets from Ukraine to Russia but at the end the situation is getting pretty serious, they are moving close to the border and i do think in this process the Russia can self destroy their economy themselves.

[el kaka22]

The silly thing is, we all know that Russia will create some excuse to attack on Ukraine all over again, and we all know that whatever excuse they come up with will be something useless to convince us, it will be something they did to have a reason. So, why even bother? I mean just attack Ukraine if you want it so much, why do they need a casus belli for it? Not like anyone would agree with them, it will be a silly thing and everyone will say it is a fake reason anyway?

They should not even attack Ukraine to begin with, that much should not even be said, let Ukraine be Ukraine and go focus on your own dictatorship, Putin has been one of the most terrible personas in the whole world for decades now, focus on getting rid of him but fair elections are impossible there anyway. It is just not a good deal for the whole world and will end terribly as usual.

[Hydrogen]

Russia is not going to war. I don't think the Chinese who invested more of the lands in the US will like it. Some big businesses in US are now owned by the Chinese, they'd rather stand along by playing a long game here by improving their economy since Germany is on thier side now with thier joint project like the oil pipeline. While on the other side of the world oil prices will double, on thier side, it could be cheaper. All of them are interested in the Chinese Belt and Road too, so that might just be the strategy.

I read this only a few weeks ago:

Russia ‘very likely’ to invade Ukraine without ‘enormous sanctions’ – Schiff

Russia is “very likely” to invade Ukraine and might only be deterred by “enormous sanctions”, the chair of the US House intelligence committee said on Sunday.

Adam Schiff also said an invasion could backfire on Moscow, by drawing more countries into the Nato military alliance.

“I also think that a powerful deterrent is the understanding that if they do invade, it is going to bring Nato closer to Russia, not push it farther away,” he said.

After the California Democrat spoke, the White House said Joe Biden had spoken to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said in a statement: “President Biden made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine.”

On Twitter, Zelenskiy said: “The first international talk of the year with [Biden] proves the special nature of our relations.”

He also said the joint actions of Ukraine, the US “and partners in keeping peace in Europe, preventing further escalation, reforms, deoligarchisation were discussed. We appreciate the unwavering support of Ukraine.”

Russia has amassed around 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine. Earlier this week, Biden told Vladimir Putin the US would impose serious sanctions if Russia attacked.

Talks are scheduled for Geneva on 9 and 10 January. But amid tensions heightened by both sides’ possession of nuclear weapons, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said that if “the west continues its aggressive line, Russia will be forced to take all necessary measures to ensure strategic balance and eliminate unacceptable threats to our security”.

Russia has for years complained about Nato encroachment. Ukraine is not a member of the alliance, which guarantees collective defence, but Nato has expanded eastwards since the fall of the Soviet Union and Kiev urgently seeks admission.

Russia invaded Ukrainian territory in 2014, annexing Crimea.

The US has supplied “small” arms to Ukraine.

On CBS’s Face the Nation, Schiff was asked what would stop Putin ordering an invasion.

“I think that it would require enormous sanctions on Russia to deter what appears to be a very likely Russian invasion of Ukraine again,” Schiff said. “And I think our allies need to be solidly on board with it. Russia needs to understand we are united in this.”

An invasion, Schiff said, would see “more Nato assets closer to Russia. [It] will have the opposite impact of what Putin is trying to achieve”.

Schiff said he had “no problem” with “going after Putin personally”, but thought “sector-sized sanctions will be the most important”.

Asked if he thought scheduled talks had any chance of averting an invasion, he said: “I fear that Putin is very likely to invade. I still frankly don’t understand the full motivation for why now he’s doing this, but he certainly appears intent on it unless we can persuade him otherwise.

“And I think nothing other than a level of sanctions that Russia has never seen will deter him, and that’s exactly what we need to do with our allies.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/02/russia-invade-ukraine-enormous-sanctions-schiff

Here we have a head of US intelligence suggesting harsher economic sanctions on russia to deter invasion of ukraine.

They go on to threaten russia with NATO suggesting that invasion will give NATO incentive to crackdown harder.

I'm not certain what the numbers or statistics of these circumstances look like.

It is known that the united states provides most of NATO's funding and the economic situation of many NATO members isn't good at the moment.

I can't say whether NATO members have surplus funds to support greater military action on russia. Without introducing additional economic strain which could potentially bankrupt members of NATO.

Its anyone's guess as to how things look in real time. As to whether NATO has the funding needed to follow through on action needed to deter or contain a russian invasion.

[paxmao]

I'm really curious about how Russians feel about the impending invasion of Ukraine.

If you ask a Cuban about how do they feel about Castro regime they will tell you "no nos podemos quejar". This is an expression that often means "we cannot complain", meaning that things are all right. However, there is an obvious double entendre on this one, meaning we cannot complain - as we are not allowed to. I think that is the state of things in Russia. "You cannot complain".

Putin touches the right buttons on the Russian cultural pride and sense of a being a superior country and it seems to work well with a large part of a population. You can be poor or you can struggle economically, but at least you are Russian and thus better. And this works until you are hungry and no longer feel superior, see Roman Empire decline, Germany after WWI, the USSR itself,...

Its also what happened in Libya. Gadafi like Putin understand how to rule a country and without him, there could be chaos and look what Libya is today?

They tried changing the leader in the country and theres a mess. And are the people there regretting? Yes.  They regret listening to the destabilizers. Now people are sellling kids for food, slavery in the country is rampant.


US is in verge too. If Biden wouldnt declare military law, people in US will shot each other, homelessness, Asian hate in the country spreads. Rob stores in daylight and all these are already is happening. Heck, even Trump would adhere!

Theyd really need to change the goverment or replace Biden with a strongman like Putin.

Dictator is not a bad word centuries ago, leaders were proud to be called Dictator centuries ago. Its only today that we have another view of this word. Who decides its bad to be a dictator?

This is a classic: things are awful, we need someone strong to take the reins or everything will sink into chaos... Adolf, Stalin, Castro, Pinochet, ... all of them would sign-off that discourse.

You know what the original Dictator terms means? It actually comes from the republican Roman times, before the empire. A dictator was designated by the Senate in time of chaos to reinstate order. The Dictator, to the difference of the consuls and other, could not be held responsible for any crime during his period.

You know what the difference is: The maximum time was 2 years. After that, no immunity and no power for the guy. As you can see, that could be a role to be proud of and legitimate. That is not the case in modern times.

[Gyfts]

First of all, I think a war with Russia by any western countries would further cripple the Russian economy, but also any country that is investing the resources for military intervention, so there is mutual benefit to let Ukraine fall by both sides. The US is the only NATO country with an economy willing to take on the burden of a war, not that they would want to, but also recognize that Russia has nukes which deter any conflict escalation.

Second point is that China will continue to be an economic partner of Russia no matter what they choose to do with Ukraine, so whatever sanctions might be placed, there is still an economic relationship with the world's second largest economy. I anticipate a crypto dip if a full invasion were to occur, just due to the uncertainty associated with a war that might breakout, with speculation of the US's involvement, but again, my thoughts are the US will not be getting involved -- they have no interest in Ukraine.

[DrBeer]

It seems that my fears about the impact of news from Russia on the capitalization of the crypto market have come true...
On the other hand, judging by the results of the negotiations between Blinkin and Lavrov, Russia in the negotiation process, to put it mildly, was "put on the bottle", ignoring all of their hysterical demands, the situation may stabilize in the near future, and not for Russia. Sanctions have remained as they were, and it is possible that they will increase. The withdrawal of assets, I mean crypto assets, will most likely be completed in the near future, and the crypto market will return to last week's indicators. It seems to me that the withdrawal process will take 2-4 weeks, no one wants to risk having a fit, hysterical, under-furrer, so no one will wait.

[Leviathan.007]

I'm not from Russia but as far as I know about Russia that's not something new about Russia NATO trying to keep Russia down and on the other hand, China is trying to pretend to be Russia's friend while they are just seeking their own benefits and surly china is just somehow trying to pretend to be Russia's friend because they are in an economic war with the USA and supporting Russia and being a friend with them can help China to have another war with the USA in another field Ukraine is just another field for these countries to have another war and take advantage from it, in the other side of the story Russia is banning bitcoin and that's maybe because of their friendship with China.