The Russian economy is on the verge of collapse. What to expect?

[TheNineClub]

I am not from Russia, but total poverty seems to be an inaccurate statement. Besides that, I would say the economy will get boosted if it comes to war. I mean, that was/is one of the tools for economy-boosting in the past. Just look at how it worked for years with their USA and their Afghanistan & Irak war. I am not sure about the accuracy of the statement that their economy is collapsing because I have been hearing that about all the other superpowers, and not much evidence behind it, but, if I would to take one clue that it might be, then war is a dead ringer for that.

[sana54210]

I never really understood what these huge nations were afraid of? I mean yes Russia has "some" power, but we all know they are economically weak and have been for nearly a decade now, in an economical war, there is no scenario where Russia could beat any of these huge nations.

When you consider technological improvements, Europe and the USA still far ahead of Russia as well, it is not even close, when you consider soldier counts, nato is still ahead. So all in all there is not a single category that Russia seems even remotely close to these nations.

So, why are they afraid of them? You could literally put embargo on Russia and kill off all the future potential threat that may come from them, because in that case they will really be in big trouble. Help from china could be good until one point but they will decline to be a pawn for china eventually and china will cut the help to a minimum in that case and Russia would be alone. These are all known facts, nothing to be afraid of here.

[cabron]

I never really understood what these huge nations were afraid of? I mean yes Russia has "some" power, but we all know they are economically weak and have been for nearly a decade now, in an economical war, there is no scenario where Russia could beat any of these huge nations.

When you consider technological improvements, Europe and the USA still far ahead of Russia as well, it is not even close, when you consider soldier counts, nato is still ahead. So all in all there is not a single category that Russia seems even remotely close to these nations.

So, why are they afraid of them? You could literally put embargo on Russia and kill off all the future potential threat that may come from them, because in that case they will really be in big trouble. Help from china could be good until one point but they will decline to be a pawn for china eventually and china will cut the help to a minimum in that case and Russia would be alone. These are all known facts, nothing to be afraid of here.

What about allies and new weapons of Russia? That's something to be afraid of.

Actually, the more argument for that is which superpower is going to benefit when war strikes? I don't think the EU will just approve and let the US handle all the profit. They'd have to talk money too and if they don't agree with the percentage the other will tend to go to the other side. How much did they loot in the middle east?

And then what will China benefit from the war when in fact they'd be affected if the Russia-Ukraine war finally come. Do you think they will just sit and watch when everyone already don't have ammo?

[romero121]

Long back itself the economic situation of Russia isn't that good. However the economy won't explode soon, and as per my understanding now the business out of weapon sales have declined a lot. Now Russia is on the urge of taking control over Ukraine. The borders were with both the country troops even after gaining more warnings from the US and Western Nations.

[DrBeer]

I'm not from Russia but as far as I know about Russia that's not something new about Russia NATO trying to keep Russia down and on the other hand, China is trying to pretend to be Russia's friend while they are just seeking their own benefits and surly china is just somehow trying to pretend to be Russia's friend because they are in an economic war with the USA and supporting Russia and being a friend with them can help China to have another war with the USA in another field Ukraine is just another field for these countries to have another war and take advantage from it, in the other side of the story Russia is banning bitcoin and that's maybe because of their friendship with China.

NATO threatens Russia? Over the past 10 years, the number of NATO military contingents in the EU has decreased 10 times! Many structural divisions, units were disbanded ... Do you think this is a threat? Could it be that Britain is poisoning its citizens in Russia with a chemical warfare agent? Is the United States annexing territory from Canada? Is Germany waging a terrorist war in Poland? NO ! Open your eyes!

[coolcoinz]

^
That's right, Russia doesn't care about NATO. Some of you may not be aware, but the pact requires each country to act if one of their allies is attacked, but id does not specify what actions should be taken.
The actions can mean a blockade, a trade embargo, sending supplies to the attacked country. People think that if a NATO member is attacked all other members will destroy the attacker, but that wouldn't be the case and Russia knows it. I bet that if they attacked Ukraine nobody would do anything. NATO is already saying that it won't do anything and Russia will make sure Ukraine doesn't become a member, just to play it safe.

[Ozero]

I am not from Russia, but total poverty seems to be an inaccurate statement. Besides that, I would say the economy will get boosted if it comes to war. I mean, that was/is one of the tools for economy-boosting in the past. Just look at how it worked for years with their USA and their Afghanistan & Irak war. I am not sure about the accuracy of the statement that their economy is collapsing because I have been hearing that about all the other superpowers, and not much evidence behind it, but, if I would to take one clue that it might be, then war is a dead ringer for that.

It is unlikely that in this situation, preparations for a war with Ukraine can boost the Russian economy. The development of the overall military industry to also participate in the export of arms, yes, it can. But here Russia will lose a lot in economic terms in any scenario with Ukraine. In 2014, it was easy for Putin to seize part of Ukraine, since no one expected such meanness from the "brothers" of the neighboring country, and even with the reality of the capture of the Crimean peninsula, Ukrainians psychologically could not shoot at the Russians. And the possibilities of full-fledged resistance were severely limited for a number of reasons. Now the situation has changed dramatically. After the Putin government killed 15,000 Ukrainians in Ukraine, the population of Ukraine is ready to defend their land.
But most importantly, the Russian leadership is now violating all basic international norms and agreements. This not only entailed and will continue to entail adequate international economic sanctions. It will be necessary to bear responsibility for this, including material responsibility by decision of international courts. I am sure that these losses will be much greater for Russia than the apparent temporary gain from the revitalization of the military industry.

[Sirait]

I'm becoming more and more convinced by the term 'a world of peace and quiet is a bad thing'. I'm still curious about what Russia's goal is in making the drama that's happening right now because we know this gas and oil producing country has a fairly high poverty rate when compared to other European countries.

war won't happen because russia and ukraine must have a million considerations. like the issue this time was used by manipulators to influence the crypto market and try to suppress the market. Who knows!!!

[DrBeer]

I'm becoming more and more convinced by the term 'a world of peace and quiet is a bad thing'. I'm still curious about what Russia's goal is in making the drama that's happening right now because we know this gas and oil producing country has a fairly high poverty rate when compared to other European countries.

war won't happen because russia and ukraine must have a million considerations. like the issue this time was used by manipulators to influence the crypto market and try to suppress the market. Who knows!!!

Everything is very simple. You probably know when a ruler has garbage in his head and his hands grow out of his ass, and everything in the country is stolen by the ruler's friends, and a hungry riot of a degraded population is on the horizon, WAR is needed !!! Anything can be attributed to the war - problems in the economy, divert attention from the party of kleptomaniacs, this will be the rationale for why it is impossible to hold rallies and demonstrations for human conditions of life - "WAR!!!" and "Enemies all around !!!", and as a result, "close your mouths, eat what they give you, and be silent !!!".
In 2014, the Kremlin was very afraid that the Ukrainian scenario of removing thieves and criminals from power, as well as the love of freedom and the ability to fight for the freedom of the people of Ukraine, could become a fatal example for Russia! And huge funds were thrown at strangling Ukraine. There was internal sabotage, and outright betrayal, and terrorist attacks, and simply the murder of citizens of Ukraine, with the seizure of land ... Moreover, in 2014 they did not hide it, officially declaring that Russia had plans to "return" half of Ukraine to itself, and create it as a controlled cloaca called "Novorossiya". They promised to get to Kiev in 3 days, and to Lviv in 5! But as you can see, in spite of all the efforts, Russia messed up in this project, and they didn’t succeed beyond the two rotting and plundered under-republics. And the subsequent sanctions in recent years have greatly crippled the economy. The people became impoverished, the budgets were burned, the total degradation of the economy, industry, social sphere, people and morality ... What to do? Described above!

[oHnK]

I'm becoming more and more convinced by the term 'a world of peace and quiet is a bad thing'. I'm still curious about what Russia's goal is in making the drama that's happening right now because we know this gas and oil producing country has a fairly high poverty rate when compared to other European countries.

war won't happen because russia and ukraine must have a million considerations. like the issue this time was used by manipulators to influence the crypto market and try to suppress the market. Who knows!!!

Everything is very simple. You probably know when a ruler has garbage in his head and his hands grow out of his ass, and everything in the country is stolen by the ruler's friends, and a hungry riot of a degraded population is on the horizon, WAR is needed !!! Anything can be attributed to the war - problems in the economy, divert attention from the party of kleptomaniacs, this will be the rationale for why it is impossible to hold rallies and demonstrations for human conditions of life - "WAR!!!" and "Enemies all around !!!", and as a result, "close your mouths, eat what they give you, and be silent !!!".

I did not expect that the actions taken by Russia were further from expectations, before I might have been naive in believing them because of the doctrine in childhood that as long as my country was colonized, only they provided weapons so they could defeat the invaders.  But at this time the conditions are different or the doctrine to me is wrong that Russia seems to be carrying out hasty policies only for its momentary interests and passions.  The impact is not on the government but on the people as a whole.  BTC and the crypto market have also become very caught up in one very bad policy of intervention.

[Sayeds56]

Its been the same story with russia for many years now. The united states, EU, UN and NATO seek to keep russia contained. Strict economic sanctions are imposed on russia to make them dependant on china as an economic trading partner. China pretends to be russia's friend so they can get close to russia and steal all of russia's advanced military technology.

Russia rattles its saber and makes threats. Whether its russia threatening to invade sweden, russian bombers flying near to alaska, russian military ships sailing to within 30 miles of hawaii or troop build ups on ukraine's border, its all the same. So far they have all been empty threats for near to 10 years.

Whether or not that will change in the future, remains to be seen.

The EU and most european nations have weak militaries and rely primarily on the united states for safety. If american inflation rises, it could diminish the united states ability to function as global police. Which could leave many parts of the world undefended if an economic crisis occurs. If russia does attack, the best time to do so, could be in the event of an american economic crisis.

There are many pieces of the puzzle and they are all moving at the same time. Which makes it hard to say what the future will look like.

You have drawn a good picture of  current situation of Russia in the context of global economy and how Russia is using its Military might to threaten its neighbor.
We should also remember that Russia is a major Producer/Exporter of oil and gas and most of the European counties are dependent on Russia for Gas supply to keep their Industry & domestic heating system running .The continent’s energy challenges, however, go beyond the current standoff. So long as natural gas remains crucial for heating and industrial uses. This huge dependence won't allow Europe to support US stance on Ukraine.

[DrBeer]

I am not from Russia, but total poverty seems to be an inaccurate statement. Besides that, I would say the economy will get boosted if it comes to war. I mean, that was/is one of the tools for economy-boosting in the past. Just look at how it worked for years with their USA and their Afghanistan & Irak war. I am not sure about the accuracy of the statement that their economy is collapsing because I have been hearing that about all the other superpowers, and not much evidence behind it, but, if I would to take one clue that it might be, then war is a dead ringer for that.

Just a few indicators about modern Russia:
47% of the population spends more than 50% of their income on food.
Out of the total population...
30 million people live without running water.
48 million do not have a shower or bath at home.
49 million live without hot water.
37 million - without sewerage.
23 million without heating.
46 million people without gas.
Over the past 25 years, about 80 thousand plants and factories have been closed in Russia

Here is a selection of figures about Rossi, Google translator will easily translate
https://opsar.ru/business-online/rossiya-v-cifrah-degradaciya-rossii-sostoyanie-nashei-strany-eto.html

And here are some more figures, with specific facts, as of 2019, to observe the dynamics (we are not Russian propaganda )
https://newizv.ru/news/economy/20-01-2019/za-25-let-v-rossii-zakryty-okolo-80-tysyach-zavodov-i-fabrik?fbclid=IwAR2ZQDXnnBGLMoVMOtwE5yX7T9rGbEKe5FRU2OVAb7--PVfvRDijr6vvYbE

[Sayeds56]

I am not from Russia, but total poverty seems to be an inaccurate statement. Besides that, I would say the economy will get boosted if it comes to war. I mean, that was/is one of the tools for economy-boosting in the past. Just look at how it worked for years with their USA and their Afghanistan & Irak war. I am not sure about the accuracy of the statement that their economy is collapsing because I have been hearing that about all the other superpowers, and not much evidence behind it, but, if I would to take one clue that it might be, then war is a dead ringer for that.

I think Russian economy is not so fragile  to collapse easily when we look at its huge oil/gas reserves and their skyrocketing prices but using war to improve economy might have been a good idea in the past and many world's major powers have used it successfully  but in 2022 no civilized society can afford to support it. I think if USA decides to go in war with Russia on Ukraine issue, the world community won't stand behind USA.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp#:~:text=GDP%20in%20Russia%20is%20expected,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models.

[davis196]

How do you know that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse?
Many "experts" in my country think that the Russian economy is pretty much OK and Russia has enough resources and raw materials to survive on it's own.I don't know,maybe most of these so called "experts" simply like Russia way too much,which makes their opinions biased.
I still don't think that Putin will invade Ukraine.He's just raising the stakes,so he could get something more out of the negotiations.
The tensions between Russia and the western world will impact negatively the cryptocurrency industry,because many miners are located in Russia and many Russians are trading and owning cryptocurrencies.I don't believe that any US sanctions towards Russia would make the Russian government more "crypto-friendly" than before.

[Ozero]

How do you know that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse?
Many "experts" in my country think that the Russian economy is pretty much OK and Russia has enough resources and raw materials to survive on it's own.I don't know,maybe most of these so called "experts" simply like Russia way too much,which makes their opinions biased.
I still don't think that Putin will invade Ukraine.He's just raising the stakes,so he could get something more out of the negotiations.
The tensions between Russia and the western world will impact negatively the cryptocurrency industry,because many miners are located in Russia and many Russians are trading and owning cryptocurrencies.I don't believe that any US sanctions towards Russia would make the Russian government more "crypto-friendly" than before.

It seems that Putin, pulling troops to the border of Ukraine (there are about 109,000 of them now) and a lot of military offensive equipment, really really does not want to invade Ukraine, but only scares the world with an invasion in order to force Ukraine to make concessions in its sovereignty at further negotiations . Although the deployment of troops and equipment looks intimidating from satellite images, Ukrainian intelligence has established that the rows of tents set up are half empty and there are no visible preparations for the offensive.
This masquerade is designed to get Ukraine to negotiate with terrorists on the occupied territory of Donbas and to introduce into the Constitution of Ukraine provisions on the special status of Donbass, in which the territory of Donbass now occupied by Russia will influence the domestic and foreign policy of Ukraine, including Ukraine’s refusal to join the EU and NATO.
Moreover, Putin is in a hurry, since the territory of the Ukrainian Donbass was plundered by Russia, most of the factories and factories were taken to Russia or dismantled, and its inhabitants are on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe. The weakened Russian economy can no longer continue to finance these territories. The impasse for Russia is complete.

[FanEagle]

How do you know that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse?
Many "experts" in my country think that the Russian economy is pretty much OK and Russia has enough resources and raw materials to survive on it's own.I don't know,maybe most of these so called "experts" simply like Russia way too much,which makes their opinions biased.
I still don't think that Putin will invade Ukraine.He's just raising the stakes,so he could get something more out of the negotiations.
The tensions between Russia and the western world will impact negatively the cryptocurrency industry,because many miners are located in Russia and many Russians are trading and owning cryptocurrencies.I don't believe that any US sanctions towards Russia would make the Russian government more "crypto-friendly" than before.

Economy is not something that you can hide very well. By the easiest methods, you could check how much inflation is (real one, not what government says), see what the average increase on salary was, check the rent prices, then check the value of their fiat versus dollars or some other fiat, and you can see it.

I mean it is not something you can lie about, it is not something you can hide neither, sure you can say inflation is 1% when it is 10% type of lies but people would know the truth when they check like only 10 items and their prices. Which is why we know that there is a Russian economical crisis. However, to be fair, no nation in the world did better than last year, it is getting worse for everyone.

[DrBeer]

How do you know that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse?
Many "experts" in my country think that the Russian economy is pretty much OK and Russia has enough resources and raw materials to survive on it's own.I don't know,maybe most of these so called "experts" simply like Russia way too much,which makes their opinions biased.
I still don't think that Putin will invade Ukraine.He's just raising the stakes,so he could get something more out of the negotiations.
The tensions between Russia and the western world will impact negatively the cryptocurrency industry,because many miners are located in Russia and many Russians are trading and owning cryptocurrencies.I don't believe that any US sanctions towards Russia would make the Russian government more "crypto-friendly" than before.

Everything is extremely simple!
After the start of the imposition of sanctions, mind you very mild ones, today Russia has lost:
- Pension Fund (a huge part of the money went to the security forces and other non-core projects)
- The National Wealth Fund (in the last 1.5 months alone, the loss has lost about 750 billion rubles)
- Severe inflation
- A total drop in incomes of the population
- Increasing the retirement age in the face of rising mortality rates, growing population affected by HIV/TB/STI/Drug/Alcoholism
- Shrinkage of all budgets - social sphere, medicine, education, .... Everything except budgets for law enforcement agencies
- Bankruptcy and closure of thousands of industrial enterprises, many of them are industry-forming ...
- Loss of part of the European market in the supply of gas / oil, after the EU gas terror this winter.
Many more factors can be listed.

Tell me, are these indicators of a stable economy?

[oHnK]

Everything is extremely simple!
After the start of the imposition of sanctions, mind you very mild ones, today Russia has lost:
- Pension Fund (a huge part of the money went to the security forces and other non-core projects)
- The National Wealth Fund (in the last 1.5 months alone, the loss has lost about 750 billion rubles)
- Severe inflation
- A total drop in incomes of the population
- Increasing the retirement age in the face of rising mortality rates, growing population affected by HIV/TB/STI/Drug/Alcoholism
- Shrinkage of all budgets - social sphere, medicine, education, .... Everything except budgets for law enforcement agencies
- Bankruptcy and closure of thousands of industrial enterprises, many of them are industry-forming ...
- Loss of part of the European market in the supply of gas / oil, after the EU gas terror this winter.
Many more factors can be listed.

Tell me, are these indicators of a stable economy?

Indeed, the conditions you mention are a bad picture of the current economic impact, but it is undeniable that the political war between Russia and Ukraine which has continued until Russia has restrained the impact of US policies on them has not yet come to a good end.  The diplomatic route that was expected to be taken did not go well, Russia continued to lower their troops to the border under the pretext of training.  If Ukraine does not take cover behind NATO, perhaps they will not cause the impact of a war that worries the whole world because the impact could provoke a third world war.

[Captain Corporate]

 Russia is big enough that their economy as a whole is too big to fail, it's the individual that gets a bit of a problem. Imagine China, how many people there live under the poverty line? They will say that they do not live under the poverty line at all but they are also the same people who changed the ending of fight club to show that cops managed to get Tyler Durden and put him in an asylum... they are moronic dictators so do not believe ANYTHING they say. If a Chinese government official told me that 2+2 was 4, I would question the result. China has so many people living under the poverty line, many homeless people, many starved to death people, and many people who are just poor, not starving or anything but a regular poor person, shitty house, shitty food, shitty clothes, but surviving you know? That is the majority of the citizens in a 1+ billion populated country. Do you doubt their economical power? They are insanely powerful economically as a nation because the individual doesn't matter when you are calculating something like this. The same goes for Russia but not as bad as China, people in Russia at least have "some" freedom, they are not that bad. So if you want to collapse Russia, you may make some individuals poorer, but you will not be making the whole nation collapse, in any shape or form, no matter what.

[darkangel11]

They're one of the countries with the highest inflation now which is bad.
On the other hand, Turkey has even higher inflation than Russia so if the collapsing begins Russia is not going to be the first nor the only one to fall.

If they get Ukraine without too much effort it's going to give them something to do for another decade.

I never really understood what these huge nations were afraid of? I mean yes Russia has "some" power, but we all know they are economically weak and have been for nearly a decade now, in an economical war, there is no scenario where Russia could beat any of these huge nations.

When you consider technological improvements, Europe and the USA still far ahead of Russia as well, it is not even close, when you consider soldier counts, nato is still ahead. So all in all there is not a single category that Russia seems even remotely close to these nations.

So, why are they afraid of them? You could literally put embargo on Russia and kill off all the future potential threat that may come from them, because in that case they will really be in big trouble. Help from china could be good until one point but they will decline to be a pawn for china eventually and china will cut the help to a minimum in that case and Russia would be alone. These are all known facts, nothing to be afraid of here.

Most of them want something from Russia.
Germany wants Russian gas so to show how dedicated it is it did not allowed the UK to send military help to Ukraine. The British had to take the scenic route.