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[Symmetrick]

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[BlackHatCoiner]

As a 2-year old Bitcoiner, I can state that the following is reasonably confirmed;

I know that I know nothing

When I made my account here the price wasn't greater than $9,000. I had no damn clue that we'd reach $69,000 and whoever was telling me it'd do it within a few months, was automatically ignored. I have no damn clue what's the absolute bottom and it doesn't matter if we judge the previous cycles. I think it's now clear that it won't do what it had done 4 years ago.

All I want from the price is to move slowly. Holders/Investors aren't affected much from these fluctuations, but as a person who uses it to pay goods, I can say that it's really annoying sometimes.

[Charles-Tim]

They started buying in the summer, when the price was around $11 000. After that, the so-called MicroStrategy effect was launched, thanks to which other institutions began to actively invest in bitcoin. In the $10 000 region, strong support is formed, with which the institutional bull run began, and it is also the same 15% of the cost of the last Bitcoin ATH.

Microstrategy decleared its first purchase in August 2020 that he bought $250 million worth of Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy announced its first Bitcoin purchase back in August 2020 and has consistently added to its BTC position. The firm's CEO, Michael Saylor, has also become a BTC proponent even encouraging other companies to consider adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets.

MicroStrategy announced its first bitcoin purchase in August 2020, saying it had converted $250 million from its cash holdings to more than 21,000 bitcoins, making it one of the first public companies to convert its cash treasury reserves into cryptocurrency as a store of value.

And your image above pointed to that.

All I know is that August 2020 was the first time Microstrategy officially announced about bitcoin purchase, or maybe this means its holding which might have been bought before?

Who has any thoughts on all of this? Where is the current bottom of bitcoin and below what mark will we never see the price of bitcoin in the market?

Let us compare 2013 bull run to 2017 bull run
1147÷ 177 = 6.48
19343 ÷ 3239 = 5.97x
(6.48 - 5.97 ÷ 2) + 5.97 = 5.715

Comparing it with the 2021 all-time-high
69000 ÷ 5.715 = 12073 in USD.

I should have predicted $12073 but adoption could probably change this, institutions are now more into Bitcoin investment. Also very possible as Bitcoin adoption increases, the volatility will be reducing.

If I will have to be sentimental about this, I will go for $20000, that Bitcoin price will not fall below $20000. If it falls below to like $19800, this could trigger bull run.

[buwaytress]

What's eating at me right now is that ATH was barely 10 weeks ago and we've already lost almost 50%. I was prepared for a downfall, sure, but I was almost certain we'd reached a point where Bitcoin wasn't going to get all supercycle again (no more 10 x parabolic move up), before falling on the sword for extreme crashes. So the "slow" 20k to almost 70k suited me.

But this unwinding at speed, certainly January anyway, seems to suggest you're right after all, Bitcoin's still a cycle asset and in decline now -- but 20k surely has to be the floor for me. If Bitcoin were to break that floor, then we'd also have a first time for Bitcoin to go below an ATH set in the previous cycle.

Not sure I know what to do with the implications of that.

[Konfusioon]

Since Bitcoin is not really backed by anything other than trust of the people, then I have always lived with the idea that the absolute bottom for Bitcoin is somewhere near 1$. In the current situation I do not find it likely at all that it would reach that, but I would also be very cautious about relying too much on historic data about Bitcoin performance. It can be a useful indicator for sure, but it gives us no hard rules about the current bottom.

[meanwords]

-snip

That's awful. We've just begun the Bitcoin winter (according to past cycles) and we are already bleeding so much. Almost all of the top 100 coins are down 20% just today. From the looks of it, it's going to be rough. I don't even know if it's good to invest right now.

[pooya87]

I can't predict the bottom but I can tell you one thing, you can't compare the current drop we are experiencing with previous bear markets after the bubbles for one simple reason: this time we did NOT have any bubble. You can see it in my avatar too, price had to reach at least $400k for it to be a bubble of same magnitude as previous cycles.

Consequently you can't expect the same level of dumping and a similar bear market if the bull market and the bubble wasn't even close to being the same.

If you compute the 85% dump from this ATH you can see that it would reach $10k which makes no sense either since all previous bubbles dumped to a price was above their starting price and the previous bubble ATH. For example the 2017 bubble ended at $20k and crashed to $3k which was 3x higher than the bubble before that (~$1k in 2013). If we drop to $10k that means we would be falling to half the previous bubble!!!

My point is that we either should have gone up to $400k or we can no longer use the "cycle" theory and previous cycles to speculate the future price.

[KoalaNFT]

I calculated a price between $13-18k.
 

[asus09]

please be patient all this is a test, don't forget to have breakfast to be strong to face reality, many people are against bitcoin even the government is doing everything possible to bring down bitcoin, recently the russian central bank also submitted a proposal to close bitcoin mining, now what we need is to build each other up trust, the price of bitcoin has now dropped below 25k, everyone is panicking but we have to wait and be patient..

[Bttzed03]

There is no doubt that some circumstances have changed but as one of the traders I used to follow would always say, respect the market cycle. When talking about the floor price, I also don't know. I'm currently looking at $30K but this is just the first month of the year. It's probably just a market reaction to the upcoming Chinese Lunar Year and the Russia central bank ban proposal.

[pawanjain]

I can't predict the bottom but I can tell you one thing, you can't compare the current drop we are experiencing with previous bear markets after the bubbles for one simple reason: this time we did NOT have any bubble. You can see it in my avatar too, price had to reach at least $400k for it to be a bubble of same magnitude as previous cycles.

I heard something similar from you when I predicted the start of a bear market in 2022. You claim that all this does not make sense and historical data mean nothing. I don't agree with you. So far, bitcoin clearly follows cyclicality, and as I have been saying since last year that this year will be bearish for the crypto market, I continue to say so.

We have gone through all stages of accumulation-restoration-growth. Now comes correction, it will be beneficial to everyone except speculators. There is an opportunity to finally enter the market at a reasonable price. Holders will pick up cheap coins, build up positions. Speculators and market tourists will panic sell below cost. All according to the standard scenario.

I am sure that the market has lived, lives and will live like this. And we will not see 400,000 soon, maybe not even in the next cycle. So can already get ready to catch the bottom.

Previously, I was in the category of "Speculators and market tourists will panic sell below cost" but over the years I have moved to the category of "Holders will pick up cheap coins, build up positions".
My portfolio is more than 50% down yet I am not so worried because we know that sooner or later bitcoin will recover from it's bottom and move towards another ATH.

There is a strong support at $28k - $30k level which I think won't be broken since bitcoin is currently in the over sold region as per RSI.
So may be this range can be a bottom and then we might see bitcoin going sideways through out the year slowly recovering by the end of the year.
At this point we can do nothing but speculate and derive our own theories as to what might happen.

[cheezcarls]

Maybe I’ll call it $20k bottom as the worst case scenario. Probably I was thinking between $25k to $28k as the bottom where a lot of supporters are going to defend this range, but we can’t just simply be sure about that due to the fact that the market is very unpredictable. Congrats to those who have shorted Bitcoin recently, they’ve made happy gains for that.

[BlackHatCoiner]

I don't agree with you. So far, bitcoin clearly follows cyclicality, and as I have been saying since last year that this year will be bearish for the crypto market, I continue to say so.

I neither agree with pooya one hundred percent, but I can't unsee this connection between the cycles and the halvings. Bitcoin's first four years were very significant. Half of the coins were brought into circulation. In the second halving, which occurred in summer of 2016, another 1/4 of the coins were included into circulation, leaving only 1/4 for the next halvings.

In other words, if we assume the demand increases as times goes on, we should feel extremely bullish as it gains more scarcity. I guess this cycle is over, but I don't cross my arms. Again, nobody knows nothing.

[Beparanf]

Maybe I’ll call it $20k bottom as the worst case scenario. Probably I was thinking between $25k to $28k as the bottom where a lot of supporters are going to defend this range, but we can’t just simply be sure about that due to the fact that the market is very unpredictable. Congrats to those who have shorted Bitcoin recently, they’ve made happy gains for that.

20K$ is the worst case and if ever the price hit that low. I believe the price will go more deeper since its buying price of all investors that bought bought crypto on the latest bullrun cycle. But it will need a major bad news to make that happened since there's already a lot of institutional trader that trading in crypto. There's no way they will not gonna make a move and bought this kind of dip since this is a good opportunity to manipulate the market once again.

[OcTradism]

Price somewhere around $20k will be bottom range for Bitcoin. I see price soars from $20k so if Bitcoin has serious correction to where it began, it would stop around $20k.

I don't bet Bitcoin will drop to and touch $20k but I don't exclude it from my plan. From $35k to $20k will be 45% correction and I think Bitcoin if falls to $20k, will need a few weeks to drop to it. It is easy for whales to dump it to $20k in last week of January or first week of February but I don't think they will make such manipulation. Because they will keep it last longer to make people feel tired, boring and shake them out from the game.

[Jet Cash]

Well of course the absolute bottom for Bitcoin is £0, but I think that is a very remote possibility. Bitcoin is the only virtual money that has a hard asset value, and now that we know how to initiate 51% attacks, it is unlikely to have any competition in the future. I suspect that the price is being manipulated, and that the financial houses are busy accumulating right now. This hasn't happened before, so it is difficult to try to guess when the next bull run will happen. I suspect that it may have a bit further to fall, but I have a bad track record for predicting Bitcoin price movements. For this reason, I think I am going to start picking up £500 blocks of Sats as the price drops.

In my opinion, the greatest threat to Bitcoin is the massive accumulation by the finance houses, and we can guard against this by buying and HODLing. Running a node will help as well. When I've installed some solar panels, I might try a bit of solo mining, and I know I probably won't find a block, but if enough of us do it, then some will get lucky.

[tertius993]

My guesstimateredictoin^TM was for a high of 77k and a low of 12.6k: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5375808.0 - the 77k is looking unlikely (though still barely possible I suppose) so maybe the low will be nearer 15k?  Suggesting even more of a smoothing of the cycles than I thought.

[amishmanish]

This is an interesting analysis. Without the usual, hard to grasp statistical mumbo-jumbo. Thanks Ratimov. While the 15% residual bottom is an interesting theory, did we ever had the kind of cliffs waiting to break even from the buying points of institutional investors?

I think this will pretty much be a cycle of reckoning. If the institutions and individuals falter, there'll most probably be a selling spree that we cannot imagine and sub-10K wouldn't be so far away. On the other hand, if they continue to hold below their buy-ins, and do not close positions, it'd mean a huge endorsement for the fact that 1 BTC=1BTC.

And then we'd see a bullrun that has always been prophesized, lol.

Whatever maybe the bottom, I am going to ask those close to me to invest and buy what they can.

[Ultegra134]

I've seen a lot during my Bitcoin journey, since 2013. To be honest, I'm clueless about what's going to happen. Is it concerning? It is, I didn't believe that we would lose the $40.000 resistance. Up to this point, I wouldn't be surprised if a similar pattern of 2017 occurs. Bitcoin suddenly crashes, facing huge losses.

To be honest, I'm pretty disappointed, but I'm trying to keep my cool, not panic and not do anything stupid.

[Ararbermas]

Since Bitcoin is not really backed by anything other than trust of the people, then I have always lived with the idea that the absolute bottom for Bitcoin is somewhere near 1$. In the current situation I do not find it likely at all that it would reach that, but I would also be very cautious about relying too much on historic data about Bitcoin performance. It can be a useful indicator for sure, but it gives us no hard rules about the current bottom.

you have point. But even though it's not backed by anything else probably those people who always can get benefits in it will not let bitcoin to go back from the starting point especially big holders because it's a big loss for them as well. Just imagine if bitcoin suddenly fell from $1 seems the end of journey.. But i believe the real principle still useful and will always the real key to make bitcoin shine no matter what, wherein there's no way it will not keep holding every support level as long as there are still some people believing that bitcoin still a worth it than any cryptocurrency in the market.