Bitcoin is a fraction of Global Assets value (Ark-Invest report)

[bitmover]

I was reading a report from https://ark-invest.com/, which is pretty nice btw, and I saw some interesting charts.


They also pointed out how bitcoin is taking some share as a global settlement network. The global volume transferred is higher than Visa in 2021:





They are estimating about 1 million per BTC by 2030. I don't like to think about this number, but I would like to show how they are thinking about it.

They believe bitcoin (and blockchain technologies) have significant appreciation potential. I found this image very nice:


And this is how they are "calculating" that estimation. I think some of those numbers are really interesting and make sense.
For example, 1% of Nation-State Tresuries, 5% of cash each SP500 company, becoming 10% of emerging markets currency..


Even if 2/3 of those estimations do not happen, bitcoin price will still be ~300k USD by 2030.


They also think DEFI is very promising. I think this image is the a very explanation how bitcoin fits in this ecosystem:

[1715084363]

1715084363

[coolcoinz]

I feel like this thread isn't getting enough attention not because it's bad in any way, but because of how bearish and disappointed people are. I can bet many have read it and thought "1 million per coin? yea right... I'm out of here".

I've seen these points brought up in the past, with the oldest one being that if Bitcoin sees at least 1% of global use it's going to be worth a million dollars, and that's true. If it became natural for people to have 1% of their investment portfolios in bitcoin, or even all the pension funds were to put 1% into bitcoin, we'd immediately experience a supply shortage that would turn into skyrocketing prices. I've seen what a single buy order of 1000 BTC can do to a price on exchanges. Imagine a number of such orders in a short time.

Bitcoin has a potential to go 100x, unlike any other investment, therefore it's just stupid not to have some. People buy lotery tickets that give them a chance to win that's lower than 1 in a million instead of buying bitcoin that gives a fair chance. If I were to estimate, there's over 90% chance that some day in the next 2 years BTC will be worth 2x more than it is now and at least 50% that it will go over 100k.

[franky1]

never use market cap as a number of anything. its a meaningless number
it does not represent reserves of value transfered.

same goes with anything.

if i had a company that had 1 million shares. and 1 share sold for $10. only $10 has changed hands. yet a market cap would show as company valued at $10million

the market cap of bitcoin is the same. there are 19mill coins. and those 19mill are multiplied by the latest price even if the latest price was for just a $35 order of 0.001coin.

as for the value transfered.
lets say that 275.4million coins moved in a year
and the average price of the year was $47.6k =13,152,000,000,000
yea $13trillion change hands

(asking google)
visa does 188billion transactions per year
(asking google)
visa does average $80 per transaction

meaning visa transfers $15trillion per year

some may argue
that bitcoin transfers arn't all 'spends', where some are shuffling coins to addresses of same wallet.(hot-cold)
but the same can be said for visa, people shuffling money into different cards in the same wallet(debit-credit)

[bittraffic]

I feel like this thread isn't getting enough attention not because it's bad in any way, but because of how bearish and disappointed people are. I can bet many have read it and thought "1 million per coin? yea right... I'm out of here".

I've seen these points brought up in the past, with the oldest one being that if Bitcoin sees at least 1% of global use it's going to be worth a million dollars, and that's true. If it became natural for people to have 1% of their investment portfolios in bitcoin, or even all the pension funds were to put 1% into bitcoin, we'd immediately experience a supply shortage that would turn into skyrocketing prices. I've seen what a single buy order of 1000 BTC can do to a price on exchanges. Imagine a number of such orders in a short time.

Bitcoin has a potential to go 100x, unlike any other investment, therefore it's just stupid not to have some. People buy lotery tickets that give them a chance to win that's lower than 1 in a million instead of buying bitcoin that gives a fair chance. If I were to estimate, there's over 90% chance that some day in the next 2 years BTC will be worth 2x more than it is now and at least 50% that it will go over 100k.

Cathie Wood has been very bullish with BTC ever since so I have no doubt she will always say the bullish news. It's impossible to see BTC as $1M by 2030 but maybe there is something to believe about it because of how BTC technology spreads its adoption.

If decades ago people assumed the internet was just a fad and will soon disappear because it's too geeky well, it didn't disappear and everyone's business relies on it already. And perhaps Defi and Metaverse as well.

[pooya87]

I wonder if there is any stats for the money transferred through Omni layer (tokens running on bitcoin network) such as shitcoins like Tether (USDT). After all they've existed for many years, even before the shittoken hype began on centralized platforms.

never use market cap as a number of anything. its a meaningless number

Market capitalization is meaningless when used for altcoins for a lot of reasons, but for bitcoin what is commonly and wrongly referred to as Market Cap is actually money supply which is a very good characteristic to look at, specially since bitcoin is a currency and should be compared to other currencies. When we do such a comparison we have to convert them all to one currency, in which case we multiply the supply with price (aka compute market cap of that currency).

[Kakmakr]

It will also be interesting to know if they can calculate the transactions that are being done with the Lightning Network too.. and not just transactions that are done on the Legacy Bitcoin Blockchain. 

Yes, the numbers and statistics will not be much higher if it is not included, because the Lightning Network is still under utilized... but with countries like El Salvador using it as a legal tender and payment method.. it should be included. 

[bitmover]

I feel like this thread isn't getting enough attention not because it's bad in any way, but because of how bearish and disappointed people are. I can bet many have read it and thought "1 million per coin? yea right... I'm out of here".
than it is now and at least 50% that it will go over 100k.

People are bearish and disappointed? We are 4x from 2020. Aren't you entertained?

I wonder if there is any stats for the money transferred through Omni layer (tokens running on bitcoin network) such as shitcoins like Tether (USDT). After all they've existed for many years, even before the shittoken hype began on centralized platforms.

never use market cap as a number of anything. its a meaningless number

Market capitalization is meaningless when used for altcoins for a lot of reasons, but for bitcoin what is commonly and wrongly referred to as Market Cap is actually money supply which is a very good characteristic to look at, specially since bitcoin is a currency and should be compared to other currencies. When we do such a comparison we have to convert them all to one currency, in which case we multiply the supply with price (aka compute market cap of that currency).

I agree that marketcap is not perfect, but it is the best thing we have.

How do you know which are the most valuable companies in the world? They are the ones with the higher marketcap.

Marketcap is useful and it is used a lot to valuate companies, assets, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

Marketcap is meaningless for low volume coins, in shady exchanges. That is not the  case for bitcoin.

Yes, the numbers and statistics will not be much higher if it is not included, because the Lightning Network is still under utilized... but with countries like El Salvador using it as a legal tender and payment method.. it should be included.  

I saw one more interesting El Salvador statistic, from the same report.

More people in El Salvador have a bitcoin wallet than a bank account.
I think this means something. People are actually using it.

[franky1]

I wonder if there is any stats for the money transferred through Omni layer (tokens running on bitcoin network) such as shitcoins like Tether (USDT). After all they've existed for many years, even before the shittoken hype began on centralized platforms.

never use market cap as a number of anything. its a meaningless number

Market capitalization is meaningless when used for altcoins for a lot of reasons, but for bitcoin what is commonly and wrongly referred to as Market Cap is actually money supply which is a very good characteristic to look at, specially since bitcoin is a currency and should be compared to other currencies. When we do such a comparison we have to convert them all to one currency, in which case we multiply the supply with price (aka compute market cap of that currency).

I agree that marketcap is not perfect, but it is the best thing we have.

its actually not the best thing we have
a better metric is the utxo realised value.
basically it looks at all the utxo's (unspent btc) and checks the price of them on the date they EACH moved. which means each coin has its own price that is calculated from when the coin was received. and so thats the value someone paid for it.

..
market cap is meaningless because i can make a crap coin with a 1trillion coin premine. get it listed on an exchange and sell 0.01 for $0.50 an instantly create a coin with a $50 trillion market cap.

yet if i wanted to get a utxo realised value, id have to sell all the coins and calculate the total of the price they were moved at.

..
take for instance other easy metrics to measure
like did you know if you take the coins as they are mined and give them an min, average and max value of that year. you can see that just the minting of coins created a baseline value of:
   min total   $18,518,589,967.50
   avg total   $34,424,101,251.86
   max total   $68,483,090,513.25

and the utxo realised total (realised capitalisation) is ~$455 billion

these numbers cant be faked as it require actual movements creation and prices of those movements/creations. OVER TIME

[Lucius]

Cathie Wood has been very bullish with BTC ever since so I have no doubt she will always say the bullish news.

Quite logical thinking if we take into account that this is the thinking of people who protect their long-term investments with such statements. Therefore, I see such statements and analyzes from that aspect, and not as something that is professional and objective.

It's impossible to see BTC as $1M by 2030 but maybe there is something to believe about it because of how BTC technology spreads its adoption.

I would not agree that it is completely impossible, but the probability of such a price is very small and for me personally, something like this has a chance of less than 5% - although some will say that it is only about x20 increase. The chance that such a thing will happen is small, but it still exists if powerful companies and individuals buy at least 80% of all BTC in circulation in the next 8 years, and this coincides with the fact that 99% of the max supply will already be mined by 2030 - which means the minimal impact of crypto miners on the market.

People are bearish and disappointed? We we 4x from 2020. Aren't you entertained?

All those who are convinced that last year should have ended with at least $100k, and there are a lot of them. This could partly explain why the fear has increased so much and why people believe that a new crypto winter has come. If that turns out to be true, then it will be years before a new bull run - which means in Q3/Q4 2024 after halving.

[bitmover]

a better metric is the utxo realised value.
basically it looks at all the utxo's (unspent btc) and checks the price of them on the date they EACH moved. which means each coin has its own price that is calculated from when the coin was received. and so thats the value someone paid for it.

This metric will estimate not how valuable bitcoin is, but how much it was transacted. It is something else.

It is the same the say Apple (company) value is the total amount of USD they made selling phones. It is not.
When you use Marketcap metric, the assets of the company are included, the about the expectations of future sales, the profits, etc etc.

market cap is meaningless because i can make a crap coin with a 1trillion coin premine. get it listed on an exchange and sell 0.01 for $0.50 an instantly create a coin with a $50 trillion market cap.

But you cannot  sell 0,0001 BTC for 1 million USD and say that bitcoin market cap is now trillions of dollars.
The volume is too high. You can't even move the price so much in a single exchange anymore.

You can manipulate crap coins marketcap like you said, but not bitcoin's.

[franky1]

a better metric is the utxo realised value.
basically it looks at all the utxo's (unspent btc) and checks the price of them on the date they EACH moved. which means each coin has its own price that is calculated from when the coin was received. and so thats the value someone paid for it.

This metric will estimate not how valuable bitcoin is, but how much it was transacted. It is something else.

It is the same the say Apple (company) value is the total amount of USD they made selling phones. It is not.
When you use Marketcap metric, the assets of the company are included, the about the expectations of future sales, the profits, etc etc.

market cap is meaningless because i can make a crap coin with a 1trillion coin premine. get it listed on an exchange and sell 0.01 for $0.50 an instantly create a coin with a $50 trillion market cap.

But you cannot  sell 0,0001 BTC for 1 million USD and say that bitcoin market cap is now trillions of dollars.
The volume is too high. You can't even move the price so much in a single exchange anymore.

You can manipulate crap coins marketcap like you said, but not bitcoin's.

really??

most market orders are for 0.01 ($350)
its easy to make a change from
bitcoin price: $35000    market cap: $665,000,000,000
to
bitcoin price: $35100    market cap: $666,900,000,000
yes a change of 1.9billion in cap by just being willing to buy 0.01 for $1 extra ($351)
yep it only costs $1 to move the cap by 1.9billion

yet the utxo realized capitalisation or the minted realised capitalisation accounts for each coins value requiring time and actual calculations

[bitmover]

bitcoin price: $35000    market cap: $665,000,000,000
to
bitcoin price: $35100    market cap: $666,900,000,000
yes a change of 1.9billion in cap by just being willing to buy 0.01 for $1 extra ($351)
yep it only costs $1 to move the cap by 1.9billion

This is simple not true.

I agree that marketcap metric is bad for shitcoins and you can do what you said with low volume coins. But what you are saying is simple not true for bitcoin. You cannot move bitcoin price with a 350 USD. I will prove to you.

It looks like you never looked into a big exchange order book.

Look at binance order book now. To move the price 9 USD, from 36918 to 36909 you need 243,805 USDT or you need to sell 6.36 BTC

https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT


This is a single pair from one exchange. There dozens of BTC pairs in binance, coinbase, bitstamp, bitifinex, etc etc... Trade bots will automatically detect this crazy and irrational move in a single pair, and the price will go back 9 USD in seconds, wasting 243k USD.

Of course the price moves all the time because bitcoin is very volatile, but it wouldn't move because of this 243k USD in a single pair.

So no, you cant move the price with 350 USD. You need millions of USD to move the price 10 USD. And billions of USD to move the 100 USD.

The data is there free for anyone to check

[amishmanish]

Ark investment is helmed by Cathie Wood, the same lady who hosted Elon Musk and Jack at the Bitcoin Word conference. They have been bullish on Bitcoin and crypto for a while and I am sure they are pretty professional in terms of their research.

Despite this, the last infographic was disappointing. In that DeFi evolution, they show Binance chain as somehow having something extra than ETH, AVAX etc. That is pretty much a dumb endorsement resulting out of CZs billions and his sponsoring capabilities. This is the kind of thing that scares me that all this talk about decentralization is pretty much an eye-wash.

BSC has been the chain of scams and scammers for as long as it has been alive. In terms of innovation, it is nothing other than a centralized server run chain. A company like Ark trying to portray it as some sort of a step up is a tragedy.

[franky1]

gotta laugh
here i took a screen shot while reading your comedy


notice the right side
Sell 1    36678.45      0.00030       $11.00
Sell 2    36681.59      0.00030       $11.00

hmm.. shift the price by $3.14 meaning shifting the entire market cap by $59.66million. all for the low cost of $22

if you wait around long enough you will see lots of different opportunities to move the market cap by millions for just a few dollars

as for suggesting ive never looked at a large marketbook.. ive been trading since 2012.. and i have mentioned these small bid issues many times before. here is a most recent one
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382387.msg59041691#msg59041691

but if you think that people cant shift the market cap without spending hundreds of thousands. heck even YOUR screen shot shows

36913.39     0.00093      $34.32
36911.10     0.00137      $50.56

meaning you can move the price by $2.29 ($43.5m cap shift) for under $85
yep remove $43mill from cap for $85

[hatshepsut93]

They also pointed out how bitcoin is taking some share as a global settlement network. The global volume transferred is higher than Visa in 2021:

That's assuming that all Bitcoin transactions happen between different parties, and not the same party moving coins between their wallets, including their exchange accounts. Which I think happens a lot, because with large amounts of coins it can be lucrative to make profit off arbitrage trades. If you look at the chart, the total transferred value mimics the price chart, meaning that in terms of BTC it doesn't change much throughout the years.

[pooya87]

shift the price by $3.14

You do realize that $3.14 price change is a tiny 0.008% change right?

They also pointed out how bitcoin is taking some share as a global settlement network. The global volume transferred is higher than Visa in 2021:

That's assuming that all Bitcoin transactions happen between different parties, and not the same party moving coins between their wallets, including their exchange accounts. Which I think happens a lot, because with large amounts of coins it can be lucrative to make profit off arbitrage trades. If you look at the chart, the total transferred value mimics the price chart, meaning that in terms of BTC it doesn't change much throughout the years.

Does it matter though? The point here is that bitcoin, a as a payment system, is handling this much transfer of value. Whether it is from one pocket to another or it is from one person to another doesn't change that bitcoin is handling all those transactions.
The point you are making is important when we are talking about adoption.