The market is confusing

[rozak]

Personally I am still bearish with Bitcoin. I am expecting BTC to hit 24k, then 40k, then drop to 18k or may be 10k, then bull run to $250k.

it's like a jump too high for bitcoin's current situation. I see the current situation of Bitcoin has been repeated several times. movement up slightly then corrected. after stability, there will be another increase and then corrected again.
no need to be confused by the current situation. just set orders for decrease and increase if you want to trade. if you want to invest, I don't think the market situation will affect you much. most importantly you are firm in the investment made.

[JayJuanGee]

We cannot blame the current market now. It is indeed very deceiving as the chart might look bullish then after few hours it look bearish. The reason behind this is because the bulls and bears are fighting against the Bitcoin price. People are buying crypto and others shorting it.

Personally I am still bearish with Bitcoin. I am expecting BTC to hit 24k, then 40k, then drop to 18k or may be 10k, then bull run to $250k.

Oh gawd bitcub.. you are quite the bear.

I agree with you that there can be quite a bit of confusion when there are various battles going on, and then we have to attempt to assess which side is going to win the short-term battles and also to consider where the longer term trends might end up taking us, even if there might be some extreme fleshings/flushing out of weak hands in the shorter-term periods.

It seems to me that you should be careful when you are presuming that the bearwhales would be able to force bitcoin prices down to such extreme levels .. especially when you are talking $18k or $10k...   The revisiting of $24k and even touching upon or going below the 200-week moving average (which is currently at $22k) are surely reasonable price points that BTC could touch upon or even get forced to stay down at those levels for a longer period of time than HODLers would prefer, but it seems that you are going to need some pretty dire circumstances if you believe that the BTC price is going to go below the 200-week moving average for any kind of meaningful amount of time and/or to even go substantially below the 200-week moving average especially if you also account for the relatively smaller level of BTC's blow off top this time around, if we are considering $69k in early November 2021 as our current blow-off top..and it is even hard to attribute that as being a "blow-off top" since it was nearly reached in April 2021 when the BTC prices reached $64,895.

Sure, anything is possible, but we need to be considering various fundamental aspects of bitcoin's historical bottoms if we are considering that those kinds of numbers that go way below the 200-week moving average are really possible/probable - even if the talk about outrageously negative macro-economic circumstances (including the fall of fiat) could be within that mix that could end up serving as a black swan like event.. and even given all of that, would we be presuming too much to consider that bitcoin is going to go down that far?

Oh yeah, another potentially BIG dynamic includes the purging of froth from the various shitcoins, including but not limited to ethereum, the various meme coins and NFTs and Defi, and sure there is plenty to purge, so surely it would not be clear if those purgenings or even if they keep on deceiving people that they are value (and pump with bitcoin), that they are going to drag bitcoin down to sub 200-week moving average prices or even be able to contribute towards causing bitcoin to stay below the 200-week moving average, even if it were to be able to be drug below that line for any kind of meaningful amount of price quantity or time.

[suzanne5223]

We cannot blame the current market now. It is indeed very deceiving as the chart might look bullish then after few hours it look bearish. The reason behind this is because the bulls and bears are fighting against the Bitcoin price. People are buying crypto and others shorting it.

Personally I am still bearish with Bitcoin. I am expecting BTC to hit 24k, then 40k, then drop to 18k or may be 10k, then bull run to $250k.

You're right about not blaming the market because the current market trend is something that always happened and I believe crypto investors ought to be prepared for it ever since the Bitcoin halving bullish started because after it is a market correction and when the market is in the correction no prediction can justify the market next momentum.
Concerning the Bitcoin market to downtrend to $24K it is hard to tell the bottom price of the market but the bearish is not yet over.

[sklopan]

The market has always been difficult. In general, relying on a simple way to earn money is rather naive. In this case, many traders would have earned this way a long time ago.

[mich]

The market can definitely be confusing. I think most people were expecting a higher BTC price right now. It’s generally hard to predict when the fluctuations will hit and how bad they will be. For example, I was pretty convinced that after all the government overspending during the pandemic and the war in Ukraine we may head into a recession.

I suppose I was correct in seeing that the market was due for a correction but I just didn’t see when it would happen. It’s also hard to predict when the market will pick back up but rest assured it always does and Bitcoin value will rise with it.

[kapalmabur]

The market can definitely be confusing. I think most people were expecting a higher BTC price right now. It’s generally hard to predict when the fluctuations will hit and how bad they will be. For example, I was pretty convinced that after all the government overspending during the pandemic and the war in Ukraine we may head into a recession.

I suppose I was correct in seeing that the market was due for a correction but I just didn’t see when it would happen. It’s also hard to predict when the market will pick back up but rest assured it always does and Bitcoin value will rise with it.

That's true and even after doing the analysis it's also not a guarantee to be able to know when the market can bounce back,
of course there are many factors that influence it all and it might be wiser to stay abreast of the news and developments,
maybe it's just a matter of time to see Bitcoin rise again and we'll see

[Pandu Geddon]

That's true and even after doing the analysis it's also not a guarantee to be able to know when the market can bounce back,

because the most widely done is technical analysis. everything we see is based on what the tool shows. and about the news, we rarely follow developments.

when the market is down, we don't need to be confused. those who have been trading crypto for a long time see fluctuations in the crypto market as an opportunity to make a profit.
will be a little confusing and even make us hesitate to start investing. but for bitcoin assets, when there is a decline, no one will hesitate to buy them. because everyone believes bitcoin will get another pump in the future.

[Next-door]

The dollar is still on the front foot with the market attention fixated on the possibility of the Fed delivering more aggressive rate hikes. Waller’s comments are still fresh for traders to digest. He said the U.S. Federal Reserve should be prepared to raise interest rates by 50 bps at every meeting from now on until inflation is decisively curbed. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped back to 2.866%. 🚀
 
Elsewhere, the Aussie jumped on a strong GDP print on. Australia’s economy expanded by 0.8% YoY, higher than forecast for a 0.7% rise 📉, bolstering the case for the central bank to keep raising interest rates. The RBA is likely to reinforce its hawkish stance and deliver more rate hikes. The ADP and NFP will also be closely scrutinized by traders, if the job market reports show no signs of easing, this might support the dollar and further cap the upside for the euro and yen, as well as
the gold.

[Oilacris]

That's true and even after doing the analysis it's also not a guarantee to be able to know when the market can bounce back,

because the most widely done is technical analysis. everything we see is based on what the tool shows. and about the news, we rarely follow developments.

when the market is down, we don't need to be confused. those who have been trading crypto for a long time see fluctuations in the crypto market as an opportunity to make a profit.
will be a little confusing and even make us hesitate to start investing. but for bitcoin assets, when there is a decline, no one will hesitate to buy them. because everyone believes bitcoin will get another pump in the future.

Technicals would really be the most common tools which could really make use into this market specially when you do make out some trading because not all the times it would really be showing or there

are events or situations where fundamentals do really happen around thats why people would really be making use of those typical indicators which could help at least and letting them know on whats

the current situation or patterns that they could possibly see but we know that it was never been precise if you do ask me but at least we do try.

[JayJuanGee]

The market can definitely be confusing. I think most people were expecting a higher BTC price right now. It’s generally hard to predict when the fluctuations will hit and how bad they will be. For example, I was pretty convinced that after all the government overspending during the pandemic and the war in Ukraine we may head into a recession.

I suppose I was correct in seeing that the market was due for a correction but I just didn’t see when it would happen. It’s also hard to predict when the market will pick back up but rest assured it always does and Bitcoin value will rise with it.

I doubt that it helps towards attempting to clear up the confusion if any of us actually believes that bitcoin's price movements are actually correlated with the overall market or with the stock market or with the NASDAQ and variations of those superficial theories.

In other words, many of us need to figure out that bitcoin is a different kind of asset that is not fucking correlated with the stock market - even if so many folks wish that you consider it the same thing and to get confused about it. 

People all over are saying that bitcoin is correlated with the stock market and they have all kinds of data to show it.. blah blah blah... baloney.

If you are able to zoom out, you will see that bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market - except on short time horizons.

So, yeah, I will concede that bitcoin prices are correlated to the stock market on short time horizons, but you better fucking be in bitcoin during those periods when it is not correlated because over the years there are a large number of times that bitcoin has done a wee bit of a step up  and then goes back to correlation.. so what's the point.. bitcoin is correlated except for those short periods when it is not, and if you are not in bitcoin during those times when it is not, you are going to get fucked (or at least not end up having had been able to profit during those short periods of non-correlation). 

Do I need to point out all the periods of non-correlation in comparing bitcoin to other assets (whether the stock market or anything else)?  Look at September 2020 to April 2021.  Or better yet, look at the bottom of the March 2020 liquidation event until April 2021.  Does that look correlated?  If you say that it does, you deserve to be slapped.  There are quite a few other times in bitcoin's history that you are going to see similar kinds of non-correlation - so distinctions that make a difference. 

By the way, some folks will proclaim some nonsense like bitcoin might move more from time to time, but it ONLY goes up when the stock market goes up.  Maybe that is true, maybe not.. I could hardly give less than two shits. If the BTC price goes up 15x  in a year, and the stock market goes up 50%.. should we be considering those two to be both going up together and does it help us out to recognize that fact?  The fact is that we should recognize that we better have some stake in bitcoin because it is not as correlated as people frequently describe (or imply) it to be.

Another thing is that we cannot really know when BTC is going to have some short periods of price step up, so on an individual level it remains a good practice to have some healthy portion in your investment portfolio... and sure there are no guarantees, but bitcoin remains an asymmetric bet to the upside. 

Of course, if we want to be confused we can throw shitcoins into our analysis too... and to me, it seems best to keep your shitcoin allocation very very low especially because any of them can end up getting rug pulled at any time, even if you have all kind of confidence in x, y or z shitcoin/project/nft...   But hey if you are studying all of those topics of how various shitcoins perform as compared to bitcoin, those are other reasons to become confused and to lose sight of the prize which is obviously king daddy.

That's true and even after doing the analysis it's also not a guarantee to be able to know when the market can bounce back,

because the most widely done is technical analysis. everything we see is based on what the tool shows. and about the news, we rarely follow developments.

when the market is down, we don't need to be confused. those who have been trading crypto for a long time see fluctuations in the crypto market as an opportunity to make a profit.
will be a little confusing and even make us hesitate to start investing. but for bitcoin assets, when there is a decline, no one will hesitate to buy them. because everyone believes bitcoin will get another pump in the future.

Technicals would really be the most common tools which could really make use into this market specially when you do make out some trading because not all the times it would really be showing or there

are events or situations where fundamentals do really happen around thats why people would really be making use of those typical indicators which could help at least and letting them know on whats

the current situation or patterns that they could possibly see but we know that it was never been precise if you do ask me but at least we do try.

For sure, if you do not know exactly what is going on or how long the negative situation will last, those are all justifications to continue to DCA (dollar cost average) into bitcoin.  So continue to accumulate bitcoin whether you are looking at a 4-10 year timeline or longer, and whether you are attempting to be somewhat aggressive in your BTC accumulation or you have already reached pretty decently high BTC accumulation target levels.

If you are not sure if you have enough BTC, then maybe it would be a good idea to continue to accumulate - perhaps lower levels of DCA while you figure it out... You can supplement DCA by buying on dips and lump sum investing too... and if you do not have that much cashflow, then $10 per week may suffice.. but it seems that aiming for $100 per week or more would be a better practice for anyone who is able to accomplish that....

If you spend years accumulating bitcoin.. .maybe 4-10 years or maybe more.. then perhaps some of these matters will become a wee bit more clear..., such as what is the market doing.. blah blah blah..  instead of confusing.  Having some kind of focus on BTC accumulation should help to at least provide more options  - and maybe less needs or desires to figure out how the various other inferior products compare to each other and how various monetary policies and ongoing shenanigans are affecting x, y or z asset - when we should at least recognize and appreciate what is the best and strongest asset and likely to continue to be the best and strongest asset, even if there might be some ambiguities in the shorter timeframes... but if you are in long enough 4-10 years or more, and if you have been sufficiently accumulating BTC during that time, you likely will have some kinds of clarity in terms of what is the likely better (or perhaps best) personal solution rather than trying to figure out problems and markets that are likely made confusing on purpose.

[MFahad]

Market is very confusing but at the end winner will be also those who stand boldly and didn't panic sell. I wonder why people Why sell at loss. They can do is buy more at the lowest thats the only way one can get their loses back and you will never lose until you sell  but i guess.

[EwanNolan]

I don't like this kind of market when it's already "already obvious" to everyone that we're breaking through $28k and going lower at $20/18k. Usually at times like this we can make a nice bounce all the way up to $40k and only then go lower.

[Next-door]

Today USD MARKET ANALYSIS

 DXY climbed higher to 102.54 on Thursday morning, as the market attention goes back to the possibility of central banks delivering more aggressive rate hikes ahead. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped further to 2.913%. The latest data showed U.S. manufacturing activity had picked up in May as demand  for  goods  remained  strong,  which  could  relieve  fears  of  an  imminent  recession. 

🇺🇸 U.S.  job  openings  also  remained  at  high  levels.  Federal Reserve officials from both the hawkish and dovish wings of the US central bank confirmed their determination to raise interest rates, even as business contacts report US economic growth shifting into a lower gear. This week, the upcoming US jobs data on Friday will be crucial for markets. Forecasts
point to another solid report overall, with nonfarm payrolls expected at 350k in May and the unemployment rate forecast to drop a little further. Wage growth is expected to remain healthy. 🚀
The dollar might be able to pare back some losses if the data prints show the labour market remains tight.

[AicecreaME]

I don't like this kind of market when it's already "already obvious" to everyone that we're breaking through $28k and going lower at $20/18k. Usually at times like this we can make a nice bounce all the way up to $40k and only then go lower.

I mean, for me it's an obvious bear market already but things could change easily, that's why the market is very unpredictable. However, entering a short trade have much higher chance of making profits than going long for a trade. Buying in every dip is a good action also, it ain't that bad to buy at $28,000 then wait for it to hit $40K-$50K again if it's gonna happen this year.

[Japinat]

I don't like this kind of market when it's already "already obvious" to everyone that we're breaking through $28k and going lower at $20/18k. Usually at times like this we can make a nice bounce all the way up to $40k and only then go lower.

I mean, for me it's an obvious bear market already but things could change easily, that's why the market is very unpredictable. However, entering a short trade have much higher chance of making profits than going long for a trade. Buying in every dip is a good action also, it ain't that bad to buy at $28,000 then wait for it to hit $40K-$50K again if it's gonna happen this year.

Good idea, but the question is, are you willing to hold and won't panic if the price will dump again?

I know the crypto has dipped already, however, the market is very unpredictable, who knows, there might be more dips coming.
Take the opportunity to buy, don't look back and just hold with confidence, I think that's the smart thing to do.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't like this kind of market when it's already "already obvious" to everyone that we're breaking through $28k and going lower at $20/18k. Usually at times like this we can make a nice bounce all the way up to $40k and only then go lower.

It's obvious that the future is not obvious.

[sklopan]

The market has always been like this. In general, I was always surprised and rather even infuriated when they said "you don't do anything, you earn money just sitting at the computer." Nobody thinks it's easy.

[dunfida]

I don't like this kind of market when it's already "already obvious" to everyone that we're breaking through $28k and going lower at $20/18k. Usually at times like this we can make a nice bounce all the way up to $40k and only then go lower.

I mean, for me it's an obvious bear market already but things could change easily, that's why the market is very unpredictable. However, entering a short trade have much higher chance of making profits than going long for a trade. Buying in every dip is a good action also, it ain't that bad to buy at $28,000 then wait for it to hit $40K-$50K again if it's gonna happen this year.

Good idea, but the question is, are you willing to hold and won't panic if the price will dump again?

I know the crypto has dipped already, however, the market is very unpredictable, who knows, there might be more dips coming.
Take the opportunity to buy, don't look back and just hold with confidence, I think that's the smart thing to do.

Looking back is something that cant really be easily resisted on which we would really be that mindful in our entry point and on the time that the price had decline or goes down even more then you would surely regret

that you should have waited but if the price had gone up the you would be saying to yourself that it was a good call on making such step.Market is never been predictable in the first place which means about being

confusing is really attached to it since from the start because if this one talks about easy prediction then all of us would be rich already.

[sklopan]

I don't want to upset you, but it probably won't help. It should be understood that most likely this will not work, and your message will be deleted as spam.

[savetheFORUM]

The market can definitely be confusing. I think most people were expecting a higher BTC price right now. It’s generally hard to predict when the fluctuations will hit and how bad they will be. For example, I was pretty convinced that after all the government overspending during the pandemic and the war in Ukraine we may head into a recession.

I suppose I was correct in seeing that the market was due for a correction but I just didn’t see when it would happen. It’s also hard to predict when the market will pick back up but rest assured it always does and Bitcoin value will rise with it.

That's true and even after doing the analysis it's also not a guarantee to be able to know when the market can bounce back,
of course there are many factors that influence it all and it might be wiser to stay abreast of the news and developments,

But, who says that analysis are a guaranteed way to know where the price will head? It's always said to us that cryptos are not predictable. There are analyses but they are only used to enhance our prediction. News and developments are however more guaranteed than just staring at the chart and analyzing but you gotta make sure that the news that you saw are legit and not hoax. Same when there is a news or posts about the coin's development, we need to confirm things first so that we can't do the wrong move which can only makes us lose or delayed our chances of earning a profit.

maybe it's just a matter of time to see Bitcoin rise again and we'll see

Btc has been this low for a long time so you might be right with that.