Quantum Computers and their potential effect on Bitcoin collectibles.

[OgNasty]

Many are stating that quantum computer development could put Bitcoin security at risk in as few as 10 years.  With this development coming likely sooner than was anticipated, what does this mean for all of our Bitcoin collectibles?  Will we all be forced to peel and claim all of these coins once quantum computing is widely available?  It is starting to sound that way.  Could this be part of the reason why collectibles like Casascius coins aren't getting sky high premiums for their rarity and innovation?  Does anyone know of any way this could be defended against?  I know I had planned to hold certain collectibles forever (like my Minted Seats collection), but to think many of them have potentially already reached their half-life is a bit concerning to me both as a maker of Bitcoin collectibles and a collector of them.  Thoughts?

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/quantum-computer-development-could-put-bitcoin-security-at-risk-by-the-2030s

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[Eclipse33]

If the feds can crack the SHA-256 algorithm we have bigger problems than if we should peel or not peel our meme coin collections.

[Suzuki Matt]

I feel my PM has inspired this post. lol This is one of my biggest fears about crypto. I feel the life span is super limited because of the new technology. Its scary and its inevitable. I have yet to hear a solution or a idea of how to defend against them. I guess nothing lasts forever. Like you said in PM you're better off not funding any of them. Which kind of sucks because funding them is half the fun. lol But I am curious to see everyone else's thoughts as I am somewhat of a newb around here and only been in crypto for a couple years.

[Hookzup1]

Ballet wallets seem to be a bit more secure for long term storage due to the 2 part redemption process and the card needing to be in hand to withdraw? Please correct me if I am wrong

[owlcatz]

I've also read that SHA-256 is "quantum-resistant", but ofc things change rapidly so 🤷‍♂️

https://crypto.stackexchange.com/questions/59375/are-hash-functions-strong-against-quantum-cryptanalysis-and-or-independent-enoug

It's certainly a great time to be alive (and on your toes)! 

[japanfour20]

I think unpeeled coins and paper wallets could still carry a decent value based on the lore and reputation behind their creators and resilence despite being a rather dated medium of storage at present. Obivously we should ideally be storing BTC on hardwallets, etc.

I collect them because I appreciate the portability and artistic expression and also because I like all things bitcoin. These quantum computing articles with their prognostications seem to pop up every couple of months and I'm really not worried especially since bitcoin is all software and can be forked as needed (not anytime soon though).

Perhaps those Casascius and Lealana keys won't be safe for an eternity, but it should continue to have a historic value especially if a more secure version is created in the future with the same level of trust that gives it value today.
 

[krogoth]

If this is the case...why would a hardware wallets pub and priv key be safe? Wouldnt they also be cracked? So where would a person store his btc then?

[Eclipse33]

If this is the case...why would a hardware wallets pub and priv key be safe? Wouldnt they also be cracked? So where would a person store his btc then?

Cracking the hash algorithm would mean that no form of key generation would at that point be safe. The owner of the quantum computer could brute force his way into your 24 seed words and back end steal the coins in your wallet. This would mean that even hardware wallets would not be safe at this theoretical point in time.

[krogoth]

If this is the case...why would a hardware wallets pub and priv key be safe? Wouldnt they also be cracked? So where would a person store his btc then?

Cracking the hash algorithm would mean that no form of key generation would at that point be safe. The owner of the quantum computer could brute force his way into your 24 seed words and back end steal the coins in your wallet. This would mean that even hardware wallets would not be safe at this theoretical point in time.

    Exactly!  Time to find another form of storing btc....perhaps a quantum computer can give us a better way to store BTC 

[FFrankie]

Maybe it will be like nukes everyone will have them so no one will use them

[krogoth]

Here’s Why Quantum Computing Will Not Break Cryptocurrencies  

[Ballhog69]

If this is the case...why would a hardware wallets pub and priv key be safe? Wouldnt they also be cracked? So where would a person store his btc then?

Cracking the hash algorithm would mean that no form of key generation would at that point be safe. The owner of the quantum computer could brute force his way into your 24 seed words and back end steal the coins in your wallet. This would mean that even hardware wallets would not be safe at this theoretical point in time.

Wouldn't a bip 39 password make it exponentially harder though?

[aoluain]

If this is the case...why would a hardware wallets pub and priv key be safe? Wouldnt they also be cracked? So where would a person store his btc then?

Cracking the hash algorithm would mean that no form of key generation would at that point be safe. The owner of the quantum computer could brute force his way into your 24 seed words and back end steal the coins in your wallet. This would mean that even hardware wallets would not be safe at this theoretical point in time.

Wouldn't a bip 39 password make it exponentially harder though?

Yes a BIP39 password would make it harder to crack but how much harder?

I feel your pain, all those with loaded coins, notes etc.

There is a great thread over on the Development and Technical Discussion board
concerning QC > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5381812.0

As o_e_l_e_o quoted Satoshi in that thread, we would just move to a quantum
resistant algorithm but that wont solve the "to peel or not to peel" issue.

[actmyname]

If you assume some cataclysmic scenario, then what would that imply about the nature of Bitcoin's price?

If 'keys are open' becomes reality, then it's not a matter of liquidating the collectibles and selling the Bitcoin, since that would be no different from doing today's equivalent of password-crack "hacking". Who would be there to buy it? Wait for your Bitcoin current edition is forked a couple more times, probably with a medley of shitcoins alongside it, if you are expecting anything. Though at any point you would have to deal with consensus regarding the changes, implementation, and arbitrary snapshot times if forked post-(mass-)quantum.

[JanEmil]

We GM long before that. Funds don't matter for us then. We collect for the collection not the funds.

[andulolika]

I thought it is clear that bitcoin can and will evolve, i would not worry, a snapshot and a update and we fine, at most we will have a bit of downtime, which sucks but not serious.

[Cryptogreatdane]

Right now a quantum computer is as big as a gymnasium. The amount of heat they generate is the biggest problem. When they do get it all figured out. It wont be something we all have. There will be like 2 or 3 quantum computers on the planet. Definitely not worried about my coins being compromised. Like others have said. As quantum improves so will the blockchain technology.

[JanEmil]

Right now a quantum computer is as big as a gymnasium. The amount of heat they generate is the biggest problem. When they do get it all figured out. It wont be something we all have. There will be like 2 or 3 quantum computers on the planet. Definitely not worried about my coins being compromised. Like others have said. As quantum improves so will the blockchain technology.

But to stay on subject you will have to claim to "upgrade" to new keys if it happen one day.

[OgNasty]

I thought it is clear that bitcoin can and will evolve, i would not worry, a snapshot and a update and we fine, at most we will have a bit of downtime, which sucks but not serious.

A snapshot and update won't magically make your collectibles' addresses safe.  Bitcoins would have to move to a new address under your scenario, which means collectibles would have to be peeled for their bitcoins to be moved to a new address.  This will cost fees and need to be done BEFORE quantum computers compromise the network, not after.  I don't think not worrying is an option you can have for much longer (they're saying 10 years) without losing all of your bitcoins.  I get that for Bitcoin moving forward it would not be an issue, as they can upgrade the hashing algorithm.  However, it would mark the first time that legacy Bitcoin addresses would become useless, which is a major concern in my opinion.  Then there is also the concern of "satoshi's coins" and what happens once they're stolen by quantum computing.  It's almost as if there's a massive reward available for anyone able to break the encryption.  I don't know if there's any way around the chaos that is coming our way from a technical standpoint regarding legacy addresses, but I do know that it is something currently not being taken seriously by collectors and makers.

[JanEmil]

A snapshot and update won't magically make your collectibles' addresses safe.  Bitcoins would have to move to a new address under your scenario, which means collectibles would have to be peeled for their bitcoins to be moved to a new address.  This will cost fees and need to be done BEFORE quantum computers compromise the network, not after.  I don't think not worrying is an option you can have for much longer (they're saying 10 years) without losing all of your bitcoins.  I get that for Bitcoin moving forward it would not be an issue, as they can upgrade the hashing algorithm.  However, it would mark the first time that legacy Bitcoin addresses would become useless, which is a major concern in my opinion.  Then there is also the concern of "satoshi's coins" and what happens once they're stolen by quantum computing.  It's almost as if there's a massive reward available for anyone able to break the encryption.  I don't know if there's any way around the chaos that is coming our way from a technical standpoint regarding legacy addresses, but I do know that it is something currently not being taken seriously by collectors and makers.

Devs could decide to expire the coins not moved a specific date.