How will Bitcoin behave in the approaching crisis?

[m2017]

You must have heard that we are on the verge of a world economic crisis. Many economists have long been warning about a bubble.  Article 1 and article 2 for example.

The dynamics of the S&P 500 index: can't constantly grow and at some point it has to stop.

The economic model in the world is arranged in such a way that the development of the economy is financed at the expense of unsecured money, and therefore the Federal Reserve System printing press stamps papers. Like it or not, this is how the global economy works now and the haters will definitely not change anything with their discontent. This feature of printing money out of thin air is a powerful booster as it allows the economy to boom, but as is often the case, there is a side effect. Namely, periodically occurring crises, which, according to one hypothesis, occur approximately every 10 years. The figure is quite floating, because it depends on many factors. The last one was in 2008. Many of you most likely remember this crisis, which arose against the backdrop of the mortgage lending crisis in the United States (this was clearly shown in the movie "Big short"). Then all this spread to the rest of the world didn't pass a single country.

The FED has painted itself into a corner and is between 2 fires: on the one hand, they raise the discount rate, on the other hand, inflation is growing. There is no choice here - both options are bad and have dire consequences. Events in the US economy (because the US economy occupies a large share in the world) directly affect the rest of the world. A couple of articles to understand what stage the economy is at: article 1 and article 2.

Also, you must remember that it was the events of 2008 that prompted the creation of Bitcoin as a way to avoid crises with its deflationary model. But it turned out that Satoshi's brainchild has not yet encountered crises, so it is not known how Bitcoin will behave in such a situation. In this connection, the question arises: how will Bitcoin manifest itself in a situation of crisis, which should come in the coming years, and maybe even earlier.

I see 2 possible scenarios:
1 - Bitcoin will collapse along with the market, because it is directly correlated and dependent on the stock market and behaves like a technology company aka Google (some people think so).
2 - Bitcoin will stay afloat, because people who see that the stock market is collapsing, invest all their money in crypto to save them.

I ask you to vote and express your opinion constructively / reasoned in the comments. What predictions can you make?

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[mindrust]

Depends on how tech stocks will behave because they seem to move correlated for a while. I expect the growth/tech stocks to go down for a while till the FED decides to lower the interest rates again and that means crypto will also go down with the tech stocks.

There is a possibility that the FED will stop raising the rates after the first hike because even 1 rate hike might trigger a worldwide market crash. In that scenario you may get yourself a good buy opportunity in March.

[Lucius]

~snip~
Also, you must remember that it was the events of 2008 that prompted the creation of Bitcoin as a way to avoid crises with its deflationary model. But it turned out that Satoshi's brainchild has not yet encountered crises, so it is not known how Bitcoin will behave in such a situation. In this connection, the question arises: how will Bitcoin manifest itself in a situation of crisis, which should come in the coming years, and maybe even earlier.

I don't think Bitcoin was created in 2009 because of the crisis that started a year earlier, it was a coincidence if we take into account that Satoshi in his work was inspired by previous attempts to create something similar, and a good example is B-money , which emerged as an idea in 1998. I believe Satoshi worked on his project for years before he was ready to release it to the public.

I would not agree that Bitcoin was not tested in a crisis, if it was created only 1 year after one of them officially started - of course then and today are not comparable, but the first years of its existence Bitcoin actually lived in a great crisis.
 

I see 2 possible scenarios:
1 - Bitcoin will collapse along with the market, because it is directly correlated and dependent on the stock market and behaves like a technology company aka Google (some people think so).
2 - Bitcoin will stay afloat, because people who see that the stock market is collapsing, invest all their money in crypto to save them.

I ask you to vote and express your opinion constructively / reasoned in the comments. What predictions can you make?

Both options are possible, but I would not agree that most investors will turn to Bitcoin if the stock market starts to fail. The first reason is that most of them do not think that their money would be safe in Bitcoin due to possible hacking, insufficient regulation of the crypto market, and the fact that it is an extremely volatile asset. I think most of them will find their way out in real estate, gold and bonds, which in the end are still far more popular options than Bitcoin.

[fiulpro]

How Bitcoin will behave in the approaching crisis does depend on the fact if it's interlinked to the economy tightly or is it loosely bound. I do think that here we can very easily consider bitcoins to be loosely attached to the economic situation, rather it's dependent on the investors. In case of an economic crisis there would definately be small investors which will take their money out but at the same time most of the whales will keep it in and this would give this market a small backup, making sure that the price is not falling beyond the certain level. The price can surely dump and go 10-20% less but that's about it, people know how far it can jump and I do believe that no one is going to loose this chance to make money and sudden investments are going to make things easier for the price to bounce back to original.

[Mometaskers]

I find it hard to tell. There may be people who's start taking their money out of BTC. Think of it like people doing a bankrun when Greece went bankrupt. Those who can afford to keep their money in would probably do rather than sell at a loss. Rich whales would probably take advantage of any significant price drop to hoard.

Personally I don't think an economic collapse would increase the number of people buying bitcoins. During hard times people tend to become more conservative with their money and just don't think they'd be risk it on BTC.

[hatshepsut93]

If we look at the last few years, Bitcoin would likely take a hit initially, as investors tend to get rid of risky assets in uncertain times, but then Bitcoin would quickly recover when the initial shock passes and the "uncorrelated asset" narrative will get boosted again. If enough investors will believe that it's a hedge against economic crash, and if they will hodl when the time comes, then other people will start believing in it too and Bitcoin will be more resilient. Unfortunately, right now the short-term price is still strongly affected by speculators.

[Leviathan.007]

None can be sure about the future and how is everything is going to work during the crisis, there are just theories by people. In a theory will think bitcoin will collapse during that time and just like the other markets and assets, but in another theory, bitcoin can rise during this time and the reason is to have more demand and more people getting into it during the economic crisis because they think bitcoin can save them and their funds from the inflation rate during the crisis, but in the hand we may have an stable market which stays stable and don't collapse or rise that much.

[stompix]

2 - Bitcoin will stay afloat, because people who see that the stock market is collapsing, invest all their money in crypto to save them.[/i]

Let me ask you this:
Bitcoin will stay afloat with the money poeple have lost in the stock market?
Because if the stock market crashes but still poeple manage to get money out of it they will not be able to do so unless, well, some other poeple buy those stocks, which mean as you can guess by now that in order for enough money to migrate to bitcoin you would need the same amount to be gradually invested in the same collapsing stock market. Thus, well, preventing the collapse in the first place.

1 - Bitcoin will collapse along with the market, because it is directly correlated and dependent on the stock market and behaves like a technology company aka Google (some people think so).

Not along and not on the same degree after all in case of a crisis Bitcoin can't really go bankrupt like some companies for sure will do, but whoever thinks that poeple who have lost their investment, their job and maybe their home will somehow magically prop bitcoin's price and at the same time, the poeple who have coins and find themselves in the same situation will not sell or exchange it for necessities, thus driving the price lower seriously need a reality check.

So, as always, the probable answer will be somewhere in between.

If we look at the last few years, Bitcoin would likely take a hit initially, as investors tend to get rid of risky assets in uncertain times, but then Bitcoin would quickly recover when the initial shock passes and the "uncorrelated asset" narrative will get boosted again.

But it's totally uncorrelated

[so98nn]

There are numerous angles to this matter here. Thing is when peeps are looking at such economic crisis they are thinking about only few countries in the world and mostly focus on USA and how their federal reserves are acting upon it. The thing is on the other side there are counties whose GDP is ever going green and they are blooming despite the pandemic. Some Asian countries are becoming the biggest exporter of medical and emergency care thus gaining lead in the market.

The stocks and shares will drop for those companies which are least priority while tackling the financial burdens on any country. However, for healthcare and pharma research institute shares are up and up!!

This is why I opened up the conversation with numerous angle phrase.

It may happen we just save ourselves from economic crisis before the bubble breaks. Worlds resetting as the pandemic will kee diluting with the time.

[Gyfts]

Bitcoin will crash along with the market, historical trends have painted the same picture so I don't see a reason to believe why it would be any different. I'd expect the recovery to outperform all the other markets because of the unstable currencies that are backed behind other markets. The inflation crisis is what will eventually cause the collapse, so it may push for mass adoption if people are smart.

[tyz]

I read today that Russia wants to refrain from banning Bitcoin, instead the country wants to regulate Bitcoin. It is probably because of possible sanctions and the repeated threat to exclude Russia from the SWIFT payment system in case of war. With Bitcoin, Russia could circumvent some of the sanctions.

[avikz]

I read today that Russia wants to refrain from banning Bitcoin, instead the country wants to regulate Bitcoin. It is probably because of possible sanctions and the repeated threat to exclude Russia from the SWIFT payment system in case of war. With Bitcoin, Russia could circumvent some of the sanctions.

That's correct! Russia will release their draft legislation on 18th February 2022, which will talk about regulating bitcoin as a currency. And your statement is the exact reason why bitcoin will not follow the global market in case of a depression. People will need a way out in case another global depression hits the markets. At today's time, there's no other better alternative than bitcoin or some altcoins. So a huge number of population will flock to get bitcoin which will drive the demand up and so the price. In a turmoil situation, bitcoin will not become less volatile, rather it will step up because the fiat value will be decreasing and the demand is increasing.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Eh....if we are in an "everything bubble" then why would anyone expect bitcoin not to crash when everything else does? 

When I took economics years ago in college, one of the first things the professor did in class was to say this:  "Ask 10 economists a question and you'll get 11 different answers".  So even though OP linked to two articles (which I haven't read yet but will) predicting economic doomsday, that doesn't mean either of them are right.  On the other hand, my personal opinion is that there is indeed a crash coming, and it's going to be a big one--at least in the stock market.  Stocks have been on a rip-roaring, drunken tear for over a decade now, and that can't be sustained indefinitely.

OP, I don't understand what you mean here in the part that I've bolded:

Bitcoin will collapse along with the market, because it is directly correlated and dependent on the stock market and behaves like a technology company aka Google (some people think so).

I don't think bitcoin is at all dependent on what the stock market does.  I'm not even sure I agree that it behaves like a tech stock other than the fact that it's extremely volatile.  What I do think is that whenever stocks crash in a big way, bitcoin will probably at least slide downward.  And if we go into a major recession I'm almost certain bitcoin will take a massive hit.

[d5000]

Bitcoin already has survived at least one global crisis (the COVID-19 crisis in 2020/21). However, I think that's not exactly what the OP means as this crisis was generated by an external factor, a global pandemic and above all the measures taken by several states to combat it.

However, there were regional crisis events which could be seen as a precedent for an international crisis in the vein of 2007-09. The most notorious examples are Argentina (2018 and 2020) and Venezuela (a long one, at least 2015-19 and according to many it still goes on). In both countries, the "printing press" was at least partly responsible for the events, and led to high inflation. In contrast, Bitcoin rose to unprecedented levels of popularity, and while the influence of both countries on the BTC price is low, it is perfectly possible that Argentina's 2018 crisis prevented a deeper BTC crash in that year, and Venezuela helped to keep Bitcoin's demand "rolling".

I guess however it's not 1:1 possible to adapt that scenario to a future stock market crisis accompanied by elevated inflation, as some predict. There is already much more knowledge about Bitcoin in the general public than even in 2018, those interested in "sound money" theories are probably already invested (or are gold bugs), and so while we can expect some (mostly retail) money going into BTC as an "alternative" asset, the effect would perhaps be weaker than some could expect. The general outcome could even be slightly bearish, if risky investments lose so much popularity that they outweigh the relative Bitcoin popularity increase, or if the events unfold as fast as in March 2020 when Bitcoin crashed together with nearly all markets.

However, if Bitcoin manages to survive the most acute market convulsions significantly better than the stock market - which could happen - then I'm very optimistic that the market would be likely to remain bullish; this could even bring the desired mass adoption.

[Gozie51]

I read today that Russia wants to refrain from banning Bitcoin, instead the country wants to regulate Bitcoin. It is probably because of possible sanctions and the repeated threat to exclude Russia from the SWIFT payment system in case of war. With Bitcoin, Russia could circumvent some of the sanctions.

I think some of the points you made here are logical. They may be planning ahead the sanction that may come to them if Putin decide to continue threat against Ukraine and other vices alleged on Russia. Bitcoin is however proofing to be safe heaven for the time and this will turn an eye to most countries that fear the US sanctions. If they bring the draft bill up then the story becomes very authentic.

[Hamphser]

If we look at the last few years, Bitcoin would likely take a hit initially, as investors tend to get rid of risky assets in uncertain times, but then Bitcoin would quickly recover when the initial shock passes and the "uncorrelated asset" narrative will get boosted again. If enough investors will believe that it's a hedge against economic crash, and if they will hodl when the time comes, then other people will start believing in it too and Bitcoin will be more resilient. Unfortunately, right now the short-term price is still strongly affected by speculators.

Always been like this and to those people who do have actual experience on this market or been staying up on here for years would actually know on what they should gonna do on specific scenario or situation.
We've seen that fundamentals could neither give out effect or not and that would really be situational.

This is what makes this market too unpredictable on which it could neither been affected or would totally ignore and would continue to rise up.One things for sure that this market could neither only have
that bullish or bearish run and as an investor or trader then you should know on how to play with those waves.

[Hydrogen]

The economic model in the world is arranged in such a way that the development of the economy is financed at the expense of unsecured money

It is possible politicians and governments never manage monetary policy in an efficient or responsible manner. State programs and spending always wind up bloated and inefficient. The consensus solution to debt caused by inefficient fiscal mismanagement is to tax, spend and print their way out of deficit and debt. Eventually, credit runs out and inflation occurs. This pattern is consistent throughout history. Which is why Voltaire is often quoted as saying: "paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero".

Imagine if the average person had billions of other peoples money to spend. There is no real accountability, transparency or oversight. Would these funds be handled responsibly or spent efficiently. Despite being virtually no incentive for either to occur. Governments could mishandle funds for decades, even centuries. Before the worst case scenario occurred. Where they finally reach a point where they cannot print additional mountains of fiat to bail the overextended state out.

[Darker45]

It's not as if the global economy as well as domestic economies of countries have been running smoothly ever since Bitcoin was born. Bitcoin has been around for more than a decade and it has seen a number of crises, a recession, and stock market crashes. As a matter of fact, there is that more recent 2020 economic recession largely brought about by the pandemic. And countries are still recovering from it until now.

In what was called the Black Monday and Black Thursday some time in the first and second quarters of 2020, the global stock market crashed. We have seen Bitcoin lost half of its price value. Whether it was brought by the global crisis or not, we don't know. But there must be a connection.

On the other hand, however, we have seen how Bitcoin has been rising in adoption where there is monetary crisis. In Venezuela, for example, or in Argentina or Turkey, Bitcoin became an attractive alternative after their fiat is fast losing value.

So, all in all, Bitcoin is indeed part of the global economy but it is also unique at the same time such that it could actually play the role of a hedge or an alternative. So in contrast to the traditional market, it will definitely be less affected.

[savetheFORUM]

Depends on how tech stocks will behave because they seem to move correlated for a while. I expect the growth/tech stocks to go down for a while till the FED decides to lower the interest rates again and that means crypto will also go down with the tech stocks.

There is a possibility that the FED will stop raising the rates after the first hike because even 1 rate hike might trigger a worldwide market crash. In that scenario you may get yourself a good buy opportunity in March.

But, is there really anything that correlates with Bitcoin in price? If there is then there is the possibility that such tech is going to have a value that is as volatile as Bitcoin, which I don’t think there is anything That is as such. Although I do know that there are times when Bitcoin would move the same direction with the stock market, yes it is quite possible and we have seen that happen a few times like during the pandemic, but that is when it is a situation that generally affects everything, and in the case of this crisis that a lot of economists are predicting, I don’t think Bitcoin is something that would be affected.

[magneto]

I think that there is no doubt that bitcoin is correlated with stock returns - it is a risky asset.

So in the event that high interest rates come, I think that BTC will perform very similarly to the broader markets on the way down.

However, if the impending economic doom is actually some sort of total collapse of the fiat system, there is no doubt that BTC prices will soar as it is one of the best hedges against fiat collapse out there.