The impact on BTC price in case of a potential Russia-Ukraine war

[virtualdn]

Everyone hates war, I hate it too. But these days everyone is talking about it  If such war would happen which would be the impact on BTC price?

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[jackg]

I think if "just" ukraine gets invaded we might not see too much happening for the long term - immediately there will probably quite big drops in every market except food commodities.

There might be bigger price movements too if Ukraine being invaded has a large effect on tensions between other countries on the border like Estonia, Finland and Poland but those seem quite unlikely (for now).

[Gyfts]

Any potential "WW3" scenario is going to tank BTC, people will diversify into hard assets.

A small scale invasion shouldn't have a large impact. Small scale meaning Russia and Ukraine involvement only, oppose to NATO countries and the West getting involved. The U.S. has made clear they will not be entering a war so we don't have to worry about the U.S. economy taking a hit. Russia can't afford a war either but their GDP isn't large enough to make a difference in the price anyways, so their economy is rather inconsequential (absent of full collapse, then clearly that has implications).

Follow the oil, though. When the oil reserves run dry because Russia cuts off supply, then you might worry.

[mk4]

I could see a potential bullishness if it's the case that Ukranian peeps buy bitcoin due to the economic uncertainty or if some actually plans on exiting the country; and with people all over the globe realizing the power of a decentralized currency/asset because of this macro event.

In the end, this is uncharted territory. Only time will tell how this will pan out. If I were to bet though, I'm probably going to be neutral — neither bullish nor bearish.

[adzino]

Any potential "WW3" scenario is going to tank BTC, people will diversify into hard assets.

A small scale invasion shouldn't have a large impact. Small scale meaning Russia and Ukraine involvement only, oppose to NATO countries and the West getting involved. The U.S. has made clear they will not be entering a war so we don't have to worry about the U.S. economy taking a hit. Russia can't afford a war either but their GDP isn't large enough to make a difference in the price anyways, so their economy is rather inconsequential (absent of full collapse, then clearly that has implications).

Follow the oil, though. When the oil reserves run dry because Russia cuts off supply, then you might worry.

You are saying the exact opposite. If a " potential ww3" scenario takes place, everyone that is smart would dump their "hard assets" and invest as much as they can in bitcoin and other crypto currencies. You know that when a country is at a war, the government can confiscaste your gold, properties and other assets without compensating you right? They won't be able to do that if you hold bitcoin or other decentralized crypto currency.

[Dave1]

Everyone hates war, I hate it too. But these days everyone is talking about it  If such war would happen which would be the impact on BTC price?

Depends on how long this war will take, if this is going to short then there shouldn't be able major impact to the price. But if the wars drags on for months and even years, then maybe "smart" people will put their money on bitcoin and hedge their wealth on it. Take note I emphasize smart because there could be individual who thinks that gold or precious metals is still the best investments today.

[DapanasFruit]

I am hoping that in case Vladimir Putin will make true with his overarching plan of reliving the glory of USSR with invading Ukraine this time, the whole mess can prod the value of Bitcoin to the top...but for that to happen we should see investors and traders shifting their attention from other investment vehicles to Bitcoin. The question is: Are they confident enough to make that shift in case there can be a war or would it be the opposite? In case it can be the opposite then Bitcoin can go down. And that can be sad because Bitcoin should be playing like a safe haven during times of difficulties in the global scene.

[tbct_mt2]

Everyone hates war, I hate it too. But these days everyone is talking about it  >:

It is good for Bitcoin in short term but I won't feel happy if a war occurs. Basically, Bitcoin has its long bull run and it does not need war to have bullish time. Its price will keep rising because of fiat inflation. Unstable economics, politics, wars are just some factors that can boost its price.

But such factors are not sustainable ones for Bitcoin growth. The real sustainable factors for Bitcoin growth are its technology and adoption.

[Poker Player]

It depends on whether we believe it is going to be a real war or pure theater for show. If it were a real war, in which people are really afraid that the conflict will escalate and atomic bombs will be dropped, I think the panic would be such that everything, stock markets, crypto, gold, etc. would go down. But what would be of least concern would be the return on investments.

Being pure theater, which I think is most likely if in the end there is war conflict, I think it would be neutral or positive for Bitcoin.

[cabron]

Should we hope for war for the price of BTC to go up?
I don't see it to be the only reason for BTC to reach $100K, I can't see it achieved/justified because war has occurred. Russia didn't ban Bitcoin or cryptocurrency, that should be a good plan for Russians to at least grab thier wealth still even if there will be war.  Maybe Putin sees that it will help its citizen to have thier money with them.

My hope is that there is never an assurance for this Russia-Ukraine war to actaully happen because most of the EU countries that are NATO members are not in favor of this war. War will only be risking more lives just like in Afghanistan.  

[Ozero]

I think if "just" ukraine gets invaded we might not see too much happening for the long term - immediately there will probably quite big drops in every market except food commodities.

There might be bigger price movements too if Ukraine being invaded has a large effect on tensions between other countries on the border like Estonia, Finland and Poland but those seem quite unlikely (for now).

If Russia invades Ukraine on a full scale, then all of Europe will shudder. Whether or not the Russians manage to capture Ukraine first, they will lose the war. Of course, the war will greatly affect the European countries. The economies of Ukraine and Russia will be hit hard. But if the international community helps Ukraine in the future, then Russia will still face lawsuits, tribunals, compensation payments. As a result, as a large state, Russia will cease to exist. The impoverishment of the region is unlikely to benefit the cryptocurrency. Many cryptocurrency users will die, access to some devices will be lost.
But I don't think there will be a big war. Its consequences should be understood in Russia as well. So far, Putin is only scaring and blackmailing Ukraine with the aim of returning the occupied and plundered territory of Donbass back to Ukraine, but at the same time maintaining political control over Donbass so that Ukraine will not be able to join the European Union and NATO in the future. But Putin will not succeed. The killer and bandit will get what they deserve.

[hatshepsut93]

Remember how the US assassinated an Iranian general, the Internet was posting WW3 memes, Bitcoin community was saying "this is good for Bitcoin" and then nothing happened? If there will be an escalation, which is a very big IF, it would be limited to a few regions of Ukraine, likely those that are already at war; there will be some light sanctions to let the West save the face, so no real consequences for the global economy and no consequences for Bitcoin.

[pooya87]

There won't be any "war" between Ukraine and Russia. There can only be an invasion and occupation of Ukraine just like how Russia invaded and annexed Crimean (part of Ukraine) in 2014 without facing any resistance. It would probably take almost the same amount of time as before if not shorter.
Neither US or Europe would or could do anything about it apart from what they did last time, empty talks and resumption of trades after a short time.

Consequently it won't have any effects on bitcoin price at all.

[Gyfts]

Any potential "WW3" scenario is going to tank BTC, people will diversify into hard assets.

A small scale invasion shouldn't have a large impact. Small scale meaning Russia and Ukraine involvement only, oppose to NATO countries and the West getting involved. The U.S. has made clear they will not be entering a war so we don't have to worry about the U.S. economy taking a hit. Russia can't afford a war either but their GDP isn't large enough to make a difference in the price anyways, so their economy is rather inconsequential (absent of full collapse, then clearly that has implications).

Follow the oil, though. When the oil reserves run dry because Russia cuts off supply, then you might worry.

You are saying the exact opposite. If a " potential ww3" scenario takes place, everyone that is smart would dump their "hard assets" and invest as much as they can in bitcoin and other crypto currencies. You know that when a country is at a war, the government can confiscaste your gold, properties and other assets without compensating you right? They won't be able to do that if you hold bitcoin or other decentralized crypto currency.

I'm talking about the global economy. Asset forfeiture is a different matter. Bitcoin is composed of day-to-day users and institutional users. When there's uncertainty, people like to invest into precious metals. If you're a Ukrainian, crypto currency is a smart choice, but again, I'm talking about the global economy outside of Ukraine and Russia.

I mentioned before -- there are absolutely zero countries that plan to tank their own economy to rescue a useless country like Ukraine.

[pooya87]

When there's uncertainty, people like to invest into precious metals.

This is not 1948 anymore. The world has changed. A decentralized currency that doesn't take up any physical place and nobody can take from you is way more superior than the old traditional stores of value such as precious metals that take up a lot of space and can easily be seized.
Don't forget that bitcoin was created right after the 2008 disaster where the [almost] entire world economy crashed.

[Fortify]

Everyone hates war, I hate it too. But these days everyone is talking about it  If such war would happen which would be the impact on BTC price?

If we look at the "shock" effect created at the start of Covid, which caused stock markets to plummet and crypto along with it - then that may be the most likely outcome. It'll likely be a short and sharp dip as people panic sell, but may recover to its original price within a matter of days. Hopefully it never happens, but if it turned into a long and drawn out war - I see no reason why Ukrainians would role over now considering how far they've come and how much Russia has abused them already, then it's hard to predict what will happen. It could go up as people use it to take flight and ship money across borders, or it might drop as people prefer to hold currency in less volatile locations.

[goldkingcoiner]

I think any sufficiently bad news has the effect of making people make dumb decisions. This could go either way. Either people panic sell for fiat, which was always the preferred and trusted payment system OR they invest their fiat into Bitcoin, hoping that in a war, it would at least be safe in the internet instead of physically. To be honest I think Bitcoin will lose out. Not because of any rational decision but because people will stick to what they have known.

Gold, on the other hand...

[Lucius]

Every day the war is less and less likely because one should know that spring will come soon and that the frozen country will turn into a difficult passable area for Russian tanks, transporters, and all other mechanization. In addition, the word war is overemphasized here, as it is very likely that it could be a conflict on a smaller scale than a real war. Putin is playing a chess game in which he actually wants to show his determination and military strength, thus weakening Ukraine economically and politically in an attempt to bring pro-Russian political forces to power.

Everyone hates war, I hate it too. But these days everyone is talking about it  If such war would happen which would be the impact on BTC price?

Falsely, not everyone hates war, because for some it means profit - and also diverting attention to just one area means that a lot of bad things in some other parts of the world can go under the radar. Bitcoin will react like all other markets, although some consider it special in this regard, it has always proved that this is not the case.

[pushups44]

I don't think it would boost the price in the short term, as bitcoin is highly correlated with the stock market. As of now, while many of us would disagree, bitcoin is not perceived as a safe haven asset like say gold or treasuries for the institutions - though this may change in the next few years.

So my prediction is that bitcoin and the stock market will plunge, and after the market absorbs the news and effects, these assets will recover strongly later in the year or early next year. However, the upcoming rate hikes could cast a pall over the financial markets for the rest of the year.

[GreatArkansas]

I don't think that Bitcoin will be affected by any kind of war. Bitcoin already started a long time ago and people are normally using it.
As Bitcoin's main use is for payment, which you can transfer a fund anywhere, anytime. But if ever there could be a problem with some money remittance to the affected countries of the war, some people could start use Bitcoin.