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Author Topic: [CHART] BTC Price bearish  (Read 2232 times)
MaximumDisrespect (OP)
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March 27, 2014, 03:07:32 PM
 #1

Hi fellas !

I'm new to cryptocurrency and economics in general, but since I started researching chart technical analysis it seems clear to me that the coin is currently in decline.

http://s28.postimg.org/zbba4zbvh/scr.png

I tried to pinpoint the support lines before and after the widespread adoption of BTC, being $100 and $500 respectively, but with the current trend the median price will break the support and go bearish ( red line ).

After the $1000 break point it took the coin 4 months to halve in value to $500, and I believe that it could fall further down the road, maybe returning to the pre-craze $100 prices, within a similar period. Perhaps many investors/btc millionaires are selling out ?

Just my 2 cents. What do you think ?
*noobspeculation*
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cryptomatt
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March 27, 2014, 03:19:10 PM
 #2

Good job recognizing this.  I posted a chart a couple weeks ago showing almost the same thing.  Push the play button on the chart linked below.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/cCHTz7oh/
MaximumDisrespect (OP)
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March 27, 2014, 04:37:13 PM
 #3

I know right ?
I mean, not that I don't want the coin to succeed, but let's not be complete fools shall we ?
Talks about $1000 or even $10000 per btc near the end of 2014 seems so crazy to me.

I clarified my 4-month speculation :
http://s27.postimg.org/aafxdbdn7/scr2.png

P.S I just noticed that this is in the wrong forum ! It should be in the speculation subforum.
Mods pleases move it !
waldox
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March 27, 2014, 05:31:55 PM
 #4

in my honest opinion

bitcoins recent decline could be stolen mtgox bitcoins getting cashed out....

once this sell supply clears bitcoin should start holding steady and increasing

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SlipperySlope
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March 27, 2014, 05:51:28 PM
 #5

I think the price busts out of the triangle pattern by the end of April. Many observers expect the next bubble to start in a few months, so I would be looking for signs of stability and a gentle rise beyond April given the similarity between the April 2013 bubble collapse and the current November 2013 bubble collapse.
cryptomatt
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March 27, 2014, 05:54:00 PM
 #6

in my honest opinion

bitcoins recent decline could be stolen mtgox bitcoins getting cashed out....

once this sell supply clears bitcoin should start holding steady and increasing

It's possible, although I don't think they actually got 500k+ coins stolen.  I think the malleability was a much smaller number and they actually lost access to the cold storage coins.  But anyway, I totally agree with Maximum. I also want btc to succeed and I think it will long term but as someone who trades it, I can't pull the wool over my eyes.  In the short term, we haven't had any catalysts to push it higher.  It takes time to gain traction after a bubble like we saw at the end of 2013 but btc is certainly not dead.  
lynn_402
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March 27, 2014, 06:01:26 PM
 #7

It's silly to say Bitcoin will go back anywhere near 100$.
There are way more investors interested in it now than there were at that time. I'm sure I'm not the only one who began putting money in it in november/december, plus it gained a lot of legitimacy since then, and it's gaining more every day (there's more good news everyday on coindesk, and very few bad news)
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March 27, 2014, 10:06:46 PM
 #8

I think the price busts out of the triangle pattern by the end of April. Many observers expect the next bubble to start in a few months, so I would be looking for signs of stability and a gentle rise beyond April given the similarity between the April 2013 bubble collapse and the current November 2013 bubble collapse.

From a technical perspective this makes sense but what has been the adoption rate lately?

Lets hope the $500 floor holds
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March 27, 2014, 11:10:23 PM
 #9

Trading 501.8

A lot more sellers than buyers so soon 500 will be tested.

ohh 490.8 that was fast.
Kezotron
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March 27, 2014, 11:35:04 PM
 #10

BTC is on its way back to under $100.   How is anyone going to be able to afford mining at these low prices?
MaximumDisrespect (OP)
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March 27, 2014, 11:41:27 PM
 #11

Holy shit, it dropped almost $100 in one day...
Rols
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March 27, 2014, 11:54:36 PM
 #12

China have banned bitcoin. And now its panic. Blood in the water. Trades down to 476 dollars. Even less in china.
phr0stbyt3
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March 28, 2014, 12:06:38 AM
 #13

It's silly to say Bitcoin will go back anywhere near 100$.
There are way more investors interested in it now than there were at that time. I'm sure I'm not the only one who began putting money in it in november/december, plus it gained a lot of legitimacy since then, and it's gaining more every day (there's more good news everyday on coindesk, and very few bad news)

Silly? Up until late 2013 bitcoin has had an uncertain fate with limitless potential.
Recently it has had nothing but bad press from:
1) the worlds oldest established exchange going tits up
2) being all but banned in China
3) being all but banned in Russia
4) being classified as taxable property from the IRS
5) being labeled a ponzi scheme because it only makes early adopters rich

This looks like a pretty bleak outlook at best.... I think the "limitless" label is being stripped off and we're seeing what the true potential is. Never forget that -THIS COULD BE STRIPPED AWAY- at any moment just like all the poker sites that used to accept US players and were gone in the blink of an eye.

Forget the potential because banker manipulation and bad liberal media eat that shit for breakfast. There are many new investors, but many more that would be happy to see Bitcoin vanish into nothingness forever.
softron
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March 28, 2014, 07:49:36 AM
 #14

in my honest opinion

bitcoins recent decline could be stolen mtgox bitcoins getting cashed out....

once this sell supply clears bitcoin should start holding steady and increasing
it should go up in a few weeks

LMGTFY
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March 28, 2014, 11:17:27 AM
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BTC is on its way back to under $100.   How is anyone going to be able to afford mining at these low prices?

If a miner can't afford to mine, they stop mining. If a miner stops mining, the network hash rate decreases. If the hash rate decreases the difficulty goes down. If the difficulty goes down mining becomes more profitable. If mining becomes more profitable, new miners start mining.

(This is a generalisation - obviously what might happen is that an inefficient miner stops mining, and a more efficient miner takes their place. But hopefully you now understand that this is not a problem, and certainly not an unconsidered or new problem).

This space intentionally left blank.
strimbello
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March 28, 2014, 11:31:10 AM
 #16

You can draw as many lines on a chart as you like, it's still not going to be adopted by the masses when the Point of Sales in your local area aren't supporting it. Which results in fluctuations an speculation.
The main reason for all the bad press I think, is that they (govs and banks) attack bitcoin it's mostly because they feel threatened by it's potential.  
As long as I can't pay with bitcoin with easy in my local shops, it's not going to attract the masses and stay in the hands of early adopters, techies and speculative investors (small or big ones).

I'm predicting a nose-dive under 240$ soon (coming days). But on the bright side: I do believe bitcoin in general can survive all this if the developers and enthusiasts find a 'killer app'-like way to make average Joe's adapting and using it quickly (without tech hassle of worries about the IRS coming after them), although in the US it's already too late for that last part it seems...  

Seriously it's not the first time the BTC prices go down like an express elevator to hell... we'll see what the rest of 2014 has in store - still believe that I'll soon be able to really use this as a worldwide currency. If that fails, it was totally worth the effort and risks.
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March 28, 2014, 01:22:50 PM
 #17

After the $1000 break point it took the coin 4 months to halve in value to $500, and I believe that it could fall further down the road, maybe returning to the pre-craze $100 prices, within a similar period.
You believe it will drop in value fivefold in the same time it took to drop twofold? Seriously? Protip: Always use logarithmic charts for TA. Never linear charts.

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Cryptomas
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March 28, 2014, 05:32:45 PM
 #18

Many try to predict the future prices based on absolutely nothing. Ohh it's falling, so It should fall some more. Almost if not all of the rapid declines in prices had a reason behind it. Big or small. A rumor can spread like wildfire just like we see with the supposed Chinese ban. So if you try to predict the future give a sound argument. If the rumor is true we could reach 300$ even lower since China has 80+% of trades.
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March 28, 2014, 06:03:33 PM
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Many try to predict the future prices based on absolutely nothing. Ohh it's falling, so It should fall some more. Almost if not all of the rapid declines in prices had a reason behind it. Big or small. A rumor can spread like wildfire just like we see with the supposed Chinese ban. So if you try to predict the future give a sound argument. If the rumor is true we could reach 300$ even lower since China has 80+% of trades.
from where did you know that China has 80+% of trades?
i hope it just rumor that BTC will be banned in china
Deprecate
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March 28, 2014, 09:11:46 PM
 #20

BTC will hold 500+-, after all the shit news from China, IRS and Russia how could it possibily become even shittier.

EU is not gonna take a dump over BTC to make it worse hopefully.

500+- will hold and we'll see a slow progressive increase from there.
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