Is There a Bitcoin Supercycle? Is this the end of 80% drawdowns?

[BenjaminGlover]

The price movement of Bitcoin over the last year has been extremely intriguing. We haven't witnessed that significant drawdown yet, which has prompted some to believe that the cycles have shifted and that we are now in what is known as a super cycle (bull markets and mini bear markets). People on Twitter speculated about a supercycle earlier this year, so it's not like it sprang out of nowhere. Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

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[NeuroticFish]

Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

I don't think that we can safely say whether those cycles got disrupted or not. At least not yet.
There's still long time until the next halving and many things can happen.

I also hope that institutional investors' moves could do this, but hopes don't make that real. We can tell for sure only when the "cycle" has ended.

[_act_]

I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

Why don't you believe in the conventional cycles anymore?

It was predicted that Bitcoin price will increase after halving and it did. It was also predicted 2021 will be about price increase and it happened. It has been predicted that this year will not be that good but selling will be more, it is happening. All that was predicted based on previous last events are all happening. It has also been predicted that there will be bull market in 2024, Bitcoin will halve in early 2024, likely this will happen if history again repeats itself.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

The price movement of Bitcoin over the last year has been extremely intriguing. We haven't witnessed that significant drawdown yet, which has prompted some to believe that the cycles have shifted and that we are now in what is known as a super cycle (bull markets and mini bear markets). People on Twitter speculated about a supercycle earlier this year, so it's not like it sprang out of nowhere. Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

I also been calling out about this super cycles but we don't have any proof yet because obviously we haven't seen this kind of movement. So we will see if we will have 1 supercycle, or a combination of 2 mini cycle as bitcoin's narrative is also changing and so is the pattern and cycle. So really hard to see where we are going right now but hopefully the bears though as still in the sideline and let's hope that we will see bullishness still this year.

[Jating]

Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

I don't think that we can safely say whether those cycles got disrupted or not. At least not yet.
There's still long time until the next halving and many things can happen.

I also hope that institutional investors' moves could do this, but hopes don't make that real. We can tell for sure only when the "cycle" has ended.

Per definition though, the cycle that we have seen so far is the "4 year cycle". So 2017 was the last great bull run and then last year 2021. And now it's supposedly bear market, but so far the market is holding it's own and barely above 50% of the current all time high. Unlike in 2017 wherein after the bubble is burst the price continues to go down in the next 3 months. But then again, this year we have different set of players in the market that maybe affect how this cycle moves.

[NeuroticFish]

Per definition though, the cycle that we have seen so far is the "4 year cycle". So 2017 was the last great bull run and then last year 2021. And now it's supposedly bear market, but so far the market is holding it's own and barely above 50% of the current all time high. Unlike in 2017 wherein after the bubble is burst the price continues to go down in the next 3 months. But then again, this year we have different set of players in the market that maybe affect how this cycle moves.

I know about the 4 years, but now we are not in a bear market, especially as after the bull run we had one year ago and the following drop, the price did recover from under 30k to new ATH (!).
Nobody knows if this will happen again or we go lower this time. But if you put an equal sign between this drop to 50% and the drop to ~18% we have seen in 2018-2019, I will not agree with you.
So, as I said, let's wait until the 4-years old-fashion cycle ends and then we can look back and draw conclusions. Until then, it's more hope than analysis.

[mk4]

Too early to make conclusions lol. Do you actually think we've received enough adoption to not have a multi-year bear market again? While it's totally debatable and while we definitely made a lot of progress with institutional investors, I personally don't think we're there yet.

[poldanmig]

Too early to make conclusions lol. Do you actually think we've received enough adoption to not have a multi-year bear market again? While it's totally debatable and while we definitely made a lot of progress with institutional investors, I personally don't think we're there yet.

We can't predict whether this will happen or not, but it's clear that some people are starting to think skeptically about what's happening right now, yes indeed the entry of institutional investors is a bit of a breath of fresh air on bitcoin price movements in the market, but not wrong for us to anticipate possible possibilities bad things that might happen in the future, I think the OP has his reasons so he argues if we are now going into the supercycle phase.

[hugeblack]

Whether you believe it or not, the price, in its current condition, is above 2017 levels and has not reached those levels since breaking them last year.
Bitcoin cycles are called jumps that led the price to levels from a 1K dollars to 10kdollars to 100k dollars, and therefore if the price breaks that barrier during this year, the probability of repeating the cycles will be high.

In general, if we reach the barrier of 100 thousand dollars, it is almost impossible to reach 1000k within the next 5-7 years, and therefore this cycle may be the last.

Again, the price does not matter what is important is continued growth.

[stompix]

Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted.

Looking back at how the speculation boards topics end in the next 48hours after being started one could give the chance of a supercycle happening tomorrow at 2/3  .

It was predicted that Bitcoin price will increase after halving and it did. It was also predicted 2021 will be about price increase and it happened. It has been predicted that this year will not be that good but selling will be more, it is happening. All that was predicted based on previous last events are all happening.

Yeah, except for bitcoin not ever going below the previous reached ATH, the fact that 2021 was a far worse year for Bitcoin than 2020 as the price went up by just 30%, compared to 300%,  the 100k prediction went bust, the x3 claimed pattern for the ATH went also bust, and so on and on.
Predictions based on the last events are falling one after the other, they aren't happening at all. The only one that stands is that bitcoin is going up in price on year by year basis, which then falsely verifies some theories about clear cycles happening at fixed points.

Whether you believe it or not, the price, in its current condition, is above 2017 levels and has not reached those levels since breaking them last year.
Bitcoin cycles are called jumps that led the price to levels from a 1K dollars to 10kdollars to 100k dollars, and therefore if the price breaks that barrier during this year, the probability of repeating the cycles will be high.
In general, if we reach the barrier of 100 thousand dollars, it is almost impossible to reach 1000k within the next 5-7 years, and therefore this cycle may be the last.

The middle cycle had its peak at 20k, which would have meant 400k for this one and 8 million for the next one
Exponential growth is clearly impossible unless we have a complete collapse of the current currency.
We need to start looking at a relatively normal growth period from now on, I don't know what's the basis for poeple who think that we're going to see trillions of sudden investments exactly after a halving everyone knows about its going to happen.

[mk4]

We can't predict whether this will happen or not, but it's clear that some people are starting to think skeptically about what's happening right now, yes indeed the entry of institutional investors is a bit of a breath of fresh air on bitcoin price movements in the market, but not wrong for us to anticipate possible possibilities bad things that might happen in the future, I think the OP has his reasons so he argues if we are now going into the supercycle phase.

Don't get me wrong, there are cases to be made why we could potentially not have those kinds of draw downs again, but I'm really just not fully convinced. And add the fact that a lot of people are expecting this sort of "supercycle"; it makes doubt it far more.

[STT]

Im not sure we can count volatility as lessening over time, its not just the fault of crypto itself but obvious outside factors like politics and military movements.   Even trade disagreements can sustainably disrupt economies and so to BTC retracts under pressure.   This is fairly normal, my personal take for 2022 was revision and eventually bullish resolution so that would include the full apparent range for BTC.
   If we go from the ATH to the prior ATH that would be probably be near to the massive drawdowns seen previously, its best to believe this cant happen but in the end it is the eventual ability for BTC to endure and resolve upwards that is the positive despite the lows in between.

[hatshepsut93]

The price movement of Bitcoin over the last year has been extremely intriguing. We haven't witnessed that significant drawdown yet, which has prompted some to believe that the cycles have shifted and that we are now in what is known as a super cycle (bull markets and mini bear markets).

The ATH is 69,000, so losing nearly half of that price can't be viewed as "mini bear market". I agree that the era of big bull runs have ended, no more x20 growth between the previous and the current peak. The next price peak would probably be at around $160,000, and I won't expect it anytime soon, like not in the next 2 years.

IMO for supercycle to happen, there must be a very strong institutional interest, not from a dozen of companies, but from hundreds or thousands, including big governments.

[bittraffic]

I have created the same thread with a poll since last year about halving or supercycle which the halving cycle win. It's almost clear so far that we are still in the halving cycle. This supercycle that we have been dreaming of for a while seems not close to happening unless the market suddenly changes this mid-year.

This is the thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5377990.msg58779599#msg58779599

I'm however believing that in the next few months that if the price breaks out to all-time high to more than $70K, then I guess the market didn't wait for another halving before moving up again. Something significant has to happen though, what could it be is the real question. Hope it's not war.

[peter0425]

I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

Why don't you believe in the conventional cycles anymore?

It was predicted that Bitcoin price will increase after halving and it did. It was also predicted 2021 will be about price increase and it happened. It has been predicted that this year will not be that good but selling will be more, it is happening. All that was predicted based on previous last events are all happening. It has also been predicted that there will be bull market in 2024, Bitcoin will halve in early 2024, likely this will happen if history again repeats itself.

Each halving brings market a good return after so Yes this will also give Bitcoin another strike after the halving in 2024 and this is 2 years from now , so if we can keep waiting instead of selling then surely we will be taking our piece of cake in this Bullrun in the making.
and also market is still showing strong hold at 30k level and even climbing to 40k this means we are not so sure about the supercycle or something in similar .

[adaseb]

I don’t think we will have a 85% drop from ATH, maybe for other coins like ETH but not BTC. I know many want to load up when it hits 85% from ATH however there is a good chance it will never happen.

I think that this quarter we might possibility go to $25K and that will be it. If $33K wasn’t the low then most likely everybody will want to buy at $28-30K. So what will happen is there will be a big bull trap there and then it’ll drop fast to like $25K and be a big bear trap and mark the lows.

[davis196]

The price movement of Bitcoin over the last year has been extremely intriguing. We haven't witnessed that significant drawdown yet, which has prompted some to believe that the cycles have shifted and that we are now in what is known as a super cycle (bull markets and mini bear markets). People on Twitter speculated about a supercycle earlier this year, so it's not like it sprang out of nowhere. Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

All the opinions about supercycles and conventional cycles are simply speculation.
Is the Bitcoin price even moving in cycles?The cycles theory is based only on the past historical data of the Bitcoin price.We already know that the BTC prices in the past cannot determine the future price of Bitcoin.
Just because some price pattern or event happened in the past doesn't mean that the same price pattern or event is guaranteed to happen in the future.
The only thing that's for sure that the fact that the Bitcoin price will keep moving up and down forever.

[tbct_mt2]

You read it right. Bitcoin is in its super cycle, the biggest in history. What we witnessed and will witness are only ups and downs short term. Long term, look back you will see it is very minor fluctuations. Do you see price change about $100 is big nowadays? Years ago, in 2015 or 2016, $100 price change is big and people called it as crash.

If you don't have strong hands, don't invest in Bitcoin because you will re-ask such question again and again. You believe in Bitcoin when price rises impressively but lose your belief when it has temp crash.

Bitcoin might be pulled back to $18k to $28k and it can be the bottom range but don't bet that Bitcoin must be pulled back to that range.

[michellee]

When the price can increase so high, the price can also decrease so deep and already happened. Even bitcoin price now drops too far and many of us do not expect this. We are like adrift in a sea of ​​crypto that there is no certainty when this will all end and give us big profits again. You don't have to believe what other people say, especially on social media, because they can talk anything about the market, let alone say something bad can happen. As long as you are not bothered by it, you will survive and use the moment in the market. So better calm yourself down, enjoy this moment, and think about what you should do right now.

[Wind_FURY]

The price movement of Bitcoin over the last year has been extremely intriguing. We haven't witnessed that significant drawdown yet, which has prompted some to believe that the cycles have shifted and that we are now in what is known as a super cycle (bull markets and mini bear markets). People on Twitter speculated about a supercycle earlier this year, so it's not like it sprang out of nowhere. Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

OP, zoom out, not super cycle enough for you? https://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/

Those “80% drawdowns” are mere blips from a zoomed out viewpoint. It might be good not to have them, but 80% drawdowns are truly golden opportunities for plebs like us to Buy the DIP!