Economic Growth on a Bitcoin Standard

[Reachers993]

Hypothetically if the USA pegged the US dollar to Bitcoin how would economic growth continue. I am a huge Bitcoin proponent but looking at it from this lens puzzles me. Restricting the printing press would, in my opinion, slow economic growth significantly. What would the world look like after this? Are there opposing viewpoints?

[DooMAD]

Hypothetically if the USA pegged the US dollar to Bitcoin how would economic growth continue. I am a huge Bitcoin proponent but looking at it from this lens puzzles me. Restricting the printing press would, in my opinion, slow economic growth significantly. What would the world look like after this? Are there opposing viewpoints?

Clearly the US would never do that.

I don't think the idea is for fiat to mimic what Bitcoin does.  The whole point is that Bitcoin does something different.  It's an opportunity to try other ways of doing things and provide a safe-haven from the resulting turmoil when fiat gets it wrong.

As it happens, I'm also of the view that governments need to re-think their strange notions of perpetual growth, but I don't see Bitcoin as the means to reach that outcome.

[Reachers993]

hmm then similar to Jeff Booth's writing about parallel systems Bitcoin is just alongside FIAT. Wouldn't eventually everyone shift to Bitcoin, what would this do to the dollar.

[OgNasty]

Hypothetically if the USA pegged the US dollar to Bitcoin how would economic growth continue. I am a huge Bitcoin proponent but looking at it from this lens puzzles me. Restricting the printing press would, in my opinion, slow economic growth significantly. What would the world look like after this? Are there opposing viewpoints?

This isn't even a possibility.  The amount of debt held by some of the world's largest nations has grown so big that it would be absolutely impossible to even consider the idea of paying back that debt without a declining value of fiat.  In fact, their debt is so large that one can make a fairly decent living in life just betting against fiat currency (if you're lucky enough to be wealthy already).  The truth is, the people in charge of the world's financial system have fucked shit up so incredibly bad, taxes are certain to increase and the value of fiat is certain to decline.  There is no other way forward.  No fancy accounting or confiscating of people's wealth will even enable the system to continue moving forward as is.  Massive money printing and rising taxes is the only way.  Politicians have no other tools at their disposal, outside of selling off our national parks to China, which will probably happen at some point to pay debts as well.  

Put simply, we are all screwed, but the folks with leased cars who rent apartments or refinance their homes at today's valuations have almost no chance whatsoever of avoiding bankruptcy without some wild investments and dumb luck on their side.

[NeuroticFish]

No fancy accounting or confiscating of people's wealth will even enable the system to continue moving forward as is.  Massive money printing and rising taxes is the only way.

Inflation is also a way to confiscate people's wealth. And at this point fiat cannot work without inflation, since the taxes simply cannot keep the pace.

Hypothetically if the USA pegged the US dollar to Bitcoin how would economic growth continue.

I wonder for how long could they - hypothetically - keep an inflationary coin (value decreasing over time) pegged to a coin with finite supply (value cannot decrease over time).

[odolvlobo]

Hypothetically if the USA pegged the US dollar to Bitcoin how would economic growth continue. I am a huge Bitcoin proponent but looking at it from this lens puzzles me. Restricting the printing press would, in my opinion, slow economic growth significantly. What would the world look like after this? Are there opposing viewpoints?

The economy grows through productivity. The effect of money on the economy is just an illusion. The U.S. government pumped trillions of dollars into the economy over the last couple of years and the economy grew at a rapid pace, but now with inflation kicking in we are seeing that those gains were not real. Real wages (wages after accounting for inflation) are now falling.

My question for you is, why do you think that money printing is necessary for economic growth? The world experienced tremendous economic growth before fiat money was invented.

Hypothetically if the USA pegged the US dollar to Bitcoin how would economic growth continue.

I wonder for how long could they - hypothetically - keep an inflationary coin (value decreasing over time) pegged to a coin with finite supply (value cannot decrease over time).

They simply devalue the dollar, as was done when there was a gold standard.

[Reachers993]

in nominal terms economic growth is taking place but in real terms id agree its not. In real terms innovation, productivity, etc. would then be the primary driver of growth then.

[Fundamentals Of]

How could you peg the US dollar to Bitcoin? That is unimaginable at this point in time. In fact, what is true today is the other way around. It is Bitcoin whose price is based on the US dollar and other fiat.

In what way could we put the price of a burger in Bitcoin, for example, if not putting in mind the value of Bitcoin in USD in the first place? Could we assign a price for a car, shirt, house, pen, etc in Bitcoin independently from the USD? If we can, how did we end up with their assigned specific prices? What are our bases?

[franky1]

there is a difference between 'pegged' and 'backed by'

pegged should be 1:1 always
(pegged=fixed exchange rate. like stable coins should always be at $1=~1USDT)

backed by. would be swappable at X rate that does change due to policy/other factors

it would be like how greyscale backs its shares to bitcoin
grey scale started at like 1 share = 0.001btc
but slowly with their '2% fee" its now 1 share= 0.00092881 today

so
imagine the usd starting at 1btc=$40k meaning 10,000USD=0.25btc (1usd=0.00002500)
and every year they change it by ~7% inflation
2023= $1usd=0.00002325 as government policy

however bitcoin is not subservient to USD political valuation.
so while bitcoin deflates from its current ~$40k(rounded) which europeans see €35k
if bitcoin was to go to a 2x due its bitcoin market movements. (€70k)
the rest of the world would see a 2x value increase of bitcoin
yet america would get
scenario A
less coin yet again so a value decrease of the USD
2023= $1usd=0.00001162
meaning americans would see a hyper inflation of not 7% but instead 215%

scenario B
the same 0.00002325. but now it would get americans ~2.07x less euros on forex exchanges


that said. america would not do this as it would require alot of things happening to try to keep US citizens from going insane with the backed value decreasing. or the forex exchange loss of travel money value EG the view that each week they get 1.49% less 'other currency' value from their weekly wage would send people into a tailspin

EG imagine their weekly wage was $300
    A                  B
0.0075          €262.50
0.007388      €258.96
0.007278      €255.46
0.007169      €252.01

this is exactly the reason USD is not backed by any asset(no gold standard for last 50 years), but instead only backed by controllable minimum wage and tax law. because if people did see their 'promise of X asset' change by weekly amount. they would go nuts

[tranthidung]

Bitcoin standard or not, it's not big matter.

What we need is not a future in which Bitcoin kills fiat currency, alternate cryptocurrency. I don't believe it is a future we want to see. To grow, it should be better to grow together. I mean Bitcoin, altcoins, fiat currencies and CBDCs will have to co-exist in future in order to help people to pursuit freedom in finance, privacy and wealth.

In my opinion, I could be wrong obviously, it's never good to have only one choice.

Think?
Because we have fiat currencies and altcoins, we do recognize how good Bitcoin is. Without them, Bitcoin is just Bitcoin and might not have any value at all.

[franky1]

Because we have fiat currencies and altcoins, we do recognize how good Bitcoin is. Without them, Bitcoin is just Bitcoin and might not have any value at all.

the system right now with bitcoin valued to dollar and then forex calculated to other fiats. means that someone in say
Afghanistan(min wage $0.42)  buying 1btc at $40k =95238 min wage labour hours
idaho(min wage $7.25) buying 1btc at $40k =5517 min wage labour hours
florida(min wage $10.00) buying 1btc at $40k =4000 min wage labour hours
california(min wage $15)  buying 1btc at $40k =2666 min wage labour hours

doesnt really seem fair right.  
afghanistan has to work 35x more hours than someone in california
people in idaho have to work twice as much as californians to get bitcoin


[hypothetical]

what if bitcoin was based on.. say a cost of living index..
EG "Bread Loaf Value" imagine right now bitcoin exchange rate was 16,000 bread loaves
EG "Minimum Wage Hours" imagine right now bitcoin exchange rate was 3,500 minimum wage hours no matter location

that way. bitcoin is better judged against cost of living no matter the region of the planet
then if the bitcoin value doubles (min wage /bread index doubles.) everyone equally benefits.

this could actually then make everyone on a equal ground of buying bitcoin, but also cause forex fiat exchange to shift dramatically

[odolvlobo]

doesnt really seem fair right.  
afghanistan has to work 35x more hours than someone in california
people in idaho have to work twice as much as californians to get bitcoin

It may not be fair, but there will always be rich people and there will always be poor people. Regardless, everything is more expensive in places where people are poorer. You can't change that by controlling the price of a bitcoin.

what if bitcoin was based on.. say a cost of living index..
EG "Bread Loaf Value" imagine right now bitcoin exchange rate was 16,000 bread loaves
EG "Minimum Wage Hours" imagine right now bitcoin exchange rate was 3,500 minimum wage hours no matter location

You are suggesting that the value of a bitcoin be pegged to bread loaves or minimum wage hours. That requires you to trust someone to maintain the peg, and even if you do trust someone, it is not possible because there are a finite number of bitcoins.

[pooya87]

Hypothetically if the USA pegged the US dollar to Bitcoin how would economic growth continue.

They can't and they won't. For starters US dollar stopped being backed by anything valuable a very long time ago and they are not going to start adding anything valuable to back it up now either. Besides, one thing they are looking for is always full control to print more money whenever they want, like when pandemic crushed the economy or the corrupt banks destroyed it in 2008. You can't just print it out of thin air if it is supposed to be backed by something with limited supply.

[witcher_sense]

in nominal terms economic growth is taking place but in real terms id agree its not. In real terms innovation, productivity, etc. would then be the primary driver of growth then.

The most notable distinction between the fiat standard and bitcoin standard is that in the former case you work to earn money that is printed by others for free, while in the latter case you work hard because you know that the time you spend working is a scarce resource and this scarce time is fairly exchanged for scarce money. Under a fiat system, you're not incentivized to be productive because the money you are paid with is subject to debasement, you can't make savings, you even can't keep up with inflation. Such an exchange is totally unfair, like I said, you are exchanging your precious time for something that has been printed for free by corrupt politicians. That is why people under the fiat system create things that won't last long: unsound money begets weak and ugly buildings, junk food, terrible education, falling economy, etc. On the other hand, when you know the money you receive for your work will only grow in value, you're incentivized to be more productive and use capital goods more rationally so that you can earn more bitcoin, save more and provide for the future.

[davis196]

Hypothetically if the USA pegged the US dollar to Bitcoin how would economic growth continue. I am a huge Bitcoin proponent but looking at it from this lens puzzles me. Restricting the printing press would, in my opinion, slow economic growth significantly. What would the world look like after this? Are there opposing viewpoints?

Economic growth means more goods and services being sold this year,compared to the previous years.
The currency doesn't matter.I know that the economic growth is being fueled by money printing,but such economic growth is artificial anyway.The USA would be fine without the fake economic growth,which is being pumped by getting more debt,which will have to be paid by the future generations.
A more stable currency would actually incentivize the economic activity and stimulate the people and businesses to produce and sell more goods and services.

[Reachers993]

"doesnt really seem fair right."

not having access to bitcoin is where it wouldn't be fair. This is the equivalent of comparing someone who makes 100k to 50k its not fair they can't buy as much bitcoin but they still can. It's more valuable for them to have it and that should be the main concern not the quantity that can be obtained. IMO

[naira]

Hypothetically if the USA pegged the US dollar to Bitcoin how would economic growth continue. I am a huge Bitcoin proponent but looking at it from this lens puzzles me. Restricting the printing press would, in my opinion, slow economic growth significantly. What would the world look like after this? Are there opposing viewpoints?

It is difficult to reverse the US reluctance to peg the Dollar to Bitcoin. There is no reason whatsoever to turn US financial policy into something completely decentralized without anyone. Even if that happens, it means that the US is considered to have given up Bitcoin. Yet we all know that the dollar is the only US asset in strengthening its economic system to date. So no matter what happens, the dollar will always be maintained because it is their main capital to determine the finances of other countries that they control because they have agreed on contracts for the payment of weapons, aircraft, coal, oil, both imports and exports that have existed for a long time. If it is pegged to Bitcoin, it is clear that there will be price changes that occur, thereby changing the value of buying and selling.

[avikz]

Hypothetically if the USA pegged the US dollar to Bitcoin how would economic growth continue. I am a huge Bitcoin proponent but looking at it from this lens puzzles me. Restricting the printing press would, in my opinion, slow economic growth significantly. What would the world look like after this? Are there opposing viewpoints?

Why would US being the most powerful country in the world, do such nonsense? Not just US, I don't think any other country will peg their fiat price with bitcoin. No country would want such volatility in their fiat price. That will be a suicide from economic perspective.

Countries may adopt bitcoin in future and probably invest a very minor percentage of the fund into bitcoin, but no one would peg the fiat value with it. It will not just slow down the economic growth but also make it extremely difficult to manage day to day operations with such volatility.

[NeuroticFish]

Afghanistan(min wage $0.42)  buying 1btc at $40k =95238 min wage labour hours
idaho(min wage $7.25) buying 1btc at $40k =5517 min wage labour hours

The comparison is much more complicated, since rent, services, food are most probably also cheaper in Afghanistan.
I've seen this growing spiral of wage hour vs living prices and I think that it may start with the cost of living...

EG "Bread Loaf Value" imagine right now bitcoin exchange rate was 16,000 bread loaves

Even a loaf of bread doesn't cost the same everywhere, since wheat grows easier in some places and more difficult in other places, also processing means labor hours, also even the quality of the result may be different and affect the price.

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I don't say that your idea is bad, not at all (although it could be seen as somewhat socialist), but the standard, the gauge, is imho not good and it may be very difficult to actually find a good one.

[marilynmanson21]

Hypothetically if the USA pegged the US dollar to Bitcoin how would economic growth continue. I am a huge Bitcoin proponent but looking at it from this lens puzzles me. Restricting the printing press would, in my opinion, slow economic growth significantly. What would the world look like after this? Are there opposing viewpoints?

it is impossible if the dollar switches to bitcoin, there will be more and more poor countries for sure, because as we know the dollar is the currency of the world,