China's strategy on the Ukraine invasion war

[TimeTeller]

Yea, not hard to understand China's brain. But hard to realize the role and when they will play on the field. So far China will never support those supported by the US. This is basic logic, which means China supports Russia. More importantly, China always looks from where they could take advantage and they just follow their own strategy. However, the war wasn't expected and seems Russians do not intend to leave Ukraine. The war will be more dangerous if the US interferes there. Let's hope to stop the war.

I had a discussion with someone who is affiliated in the politics in our country. He extensively explained that during the arbitration between China and the Philippines over the Spratly Islands, China was never considering on going to war, although they released and stationed their troops on the islands they "claimed" to be theirs. Like what happened between Vietnam and China, though the latter attempted to "claim" that some of the islands were theirs, the former started releasing soldiers against China in which the latter failed to retaliate.

Again, China will always be there on the backlines observing the spoils of war. They fully understand that almost every country needs them since they are this economic and labor powerhouse where almost 90% of our household things are made.

I can understand about this almost 90% of our household are China made.
Just look at the tags of every equipment, gadget or basically anything you can hold, and yes, it is Made in China.
With the ongoing war, they are just observing, but they are happy as Russian financial system has nowhere to go but use China's payment system.
And considering what may happen, China will gain from this war, economically. So they won't sanction Russia for any of this.
They may even get techniques on how to invade Taiwan, though they are pledging to peacefully resolve the Taiwan subject.

https://news.sky.com/story/china-pledges-peaceful-growth-in-relations-with-taiwan-and-reunification-12557918

[SquallLeonhart]

How is China playing this?

If I relate your words Chinese strategy with what was said by Former FBI: China is 'big winner' of Russia-Ukraine war, former FBI agent who worked in China warns, this is really annoying, again china is taking advantage of the suffering and economy of Russia and Ukraine.

Now I realize that behind the sanctions, the decline in the ruble and the war between Russia and Ukraine was planned by China, to overthrow the United States as the leader of the global economy, as the FBI says.

I can't understand why it is only now that America, including the world, is only now realizing what I have quoted below, what is it called, that politics is cruel.

That is not a brand new strategy neither. "Helping" nations that need help and then taking advantage of their future recovery is something economists have done for a very very long time. Think about it like a company, there is a company that does well, but they created too much debt that they can't get out right now, you pay their debts off and get 10% of the company, now for the next 50 years you are going to profit from it and it will be on your papers. This is how Warren Buffet got so rich as well.

This is just national scale of the same thing, a lot more money involved. Russia did it to many smaller old USSR nations, Europe does it for smaller European nations, China does it to surroundings, even Saudi Arabia gets all the money from oil, and spend it on getting more companies. So it is not really a new thing that people figured out recently.

[usekevin]

To understand what China is going to do we do not need to predict anything special about this country, since China and USA are competitors in many fields such as economic fields and the USA is on Ukraine's side and China prefer to see Russia damaging nato countries including the USA they will surely support Russia in this war and that's not very surprising about China because they also want to see other countries fighting together while they can do economic development and this war will make the countries produce demand more supplies and China will be sure happy about this situation. So in this theory, I guess China is happy about this war and they will support Russia as well.

This show the china nature in this war too.China will stand for Russia, if the United States start to work for the Ukraine.If the war sustain for huge period, the economy of the Russia will collapse. Then china will give the credits to Russia. Once Russia became a depending to china, China will show is real face.China had use this same strategy with the Srilanka. They gave the loan to Srilanka and get one port from Srilanka for the lease for 100 years.

[Vaskiy]

To understand what China is going to do we do not need to predict anything special about this country, since China and USA are competitors in many fields such as economic fields and the USA is on Ukraine's side and China prefer to see Russia damaging nato countries including the USA they will surely support Russia in this war and that's not very surprising about China because they also want to see other countries fighting together while they can do economic development and this war will make the countries produce demand more supplies and China will be sure happy about this situation. So in this theory, I guess China is happy about this war and they will support Russia as well.

This show the china nature in this war too.China will stand for Russia, if the United States start to work for the Ukraine.If the war sustain for huge period, the economy of the Russia will collapse. Then china will give the credits to Russia. Once Russia became a depending to china, China will show is real face.China had use this same strategy with the Srilanka. They gave the loan to Srilanka and get one port from Srilanka for the lease for 100 years.

Sri Lanka is a small country compared to Russia. What happened with Sri Lanka won't happen with Russia at any cost. Russia will make its move with its oil and gas industry. Till date very few countries have the sufficient supply of oil and gas, and there is no big infrastructure being developed for electric and solar energy usage. Russia have taken 17 countries out of its neighbouring countries list, among that China is one of the country.

[Sithara007]

This show the china nature in this war too.China will stand for Russia, if the United States start to work for the Ukraine.If the war sustain for huge period, the economy of the Russia will collapse. Then china will give the credits to Russia. Once Russia became a depending to china, China will show is real face.China had use this same strategy with the Srilanka. They gave the loan to Srilanka and get one port from Srilanka for the lease for 100 years.

As long as Russia remains as one of the top producers of petroleum and natural gas, it's economy will remain stable. Countries such as India and China are going to disregard any calls on an embargo on the exports from Russia. On the other hand, if crude oil prices jump to $185-$200 per barrel, then it is going to destroy the western economies. Even before the war, retail inflation was near record levels in the United States. Now coupled with the COVID pandemic, the rising crude oil prices can have a huge negative impact on these countries.

[Flexystar]

Or May be as the war is going ahead china is building up the strategy to sell their cheap arms and weapons and crack the tenders throughout the world. Lolz. You never know what china is doing back at home. I mean I see it as: Every morning china wakes up and thinks let’s get Russia to war on Ukraine or May let make a virus and spread it throughout the world. 

China and Russia being good allies since long time. I don’t think that they will ever interfere with the war. They are just looking at it with business point of view.

[Sebas.tian]

Or May be as the war is going ahead china is building up the strategy to sell their cheap arms and weapons and crack the tenders throughout the world. Lolz. You never know what china is doing back at home. I mean I see it as: Every morning china wakes up and thinks let’s get Russia to war on Ukraine or May let make a virus and spread it throughout the world. 

China and Russia being good allies since long time. I don’t think that they will ever interfere with the war. They are just looking at it with business point of view.

The relationship between China and Russia is too strong which will not make China to join other countries to fight Russian in this battle that is going on between Ukraine and Russian. But China will definitely use this opportunity to make a lot of money from Russian for the goods they are going to supply Russian that will make them untouchables till the end of the war. Based on the relationship, China knew that Russian government will definitely need some items from them during the war or after the war because of their relationship they have developed over some years.

[davis196]

The best approach for China is to stay neutral and see what happens.
The problem is that the western sanctions will hit both the western economies and the Russian economy.
A new global recession might be coming,which means that the Chinese export of goods might decrease.
China has to prepare for this,by increasing it's domestic demand for Chinese products and service,making it's economy less dependent of the export.
On the other hand,both the Western world and Russia suffering from an economic crisis would be a great opportunity for China to increase it's international influence and the export of Chinese capitals overseas.

[Oluwa-btc]

China will act almost the same as United States are approaching this, all nations should be neutral as this is not a good invasion against humans.
I know they're all hungry for power, the Chinese, Russians and North Korea Republic.
One of this side, taking part's will directly Lead to war. China and United States have a close bond/ intimacy when it comes to marketing and trading but I don't think they'll sanction Russia as a result if this invasion.

[TheNineClub]

There are a couple of things that need to be discussed here and seem to be off in the comments.

1. China does not profit from any conflict, at least economically. China has been moving into Africa with its influence and investments and its economy is dependent on the relative stability of the global market, and any conflicts like this slow down and hinder their progress. Now, you might be saying 'Well, Russia will turn to China and become it's that relation will, in turn, benefit China Economically', and yes, something that I will touch on later will be good for China, but an isolated economy that could be on the verge of collapse is not much help to China if the global market is unstable.

2. China will likely not take action towards Taiwan because it saw the reaction the global community had with Russia, and it wouldn't make any economic sense to take the risk of that happening to them. At least right now.

3. China doesn't need to take sides. Actually, their best strategy would be not to take sides but to act as a mediator between the two conflicted sides, serving somewhat as a global police officer (a role previously held by the US), bringing both parties to the table and emergy from it as an ally of Russia but also as a friend to the west and elevating its status in the process. I think that would give them the most leveraging power in the future on both sides. Because of the sanctions, they would get Russia for a song, basically making it dependent on them, and in return dictating their support in the future.

[Marvelman]

The Russian-Ukrainian War is going incredibly well in favor of the Chinese. The Chinese do not want to get involved in any conflict because the Chinese benefit from a "cold war" between Russia and the West.

But how long can it stay quiet on crisis? Obviously, China cannot directly oppose Russia due to its quasi-alliance with Russia and common pressure from the US, but the Chinese are doing an amazing job managing the situation and are using Russia's aggression to their advantage.
In case of energy sanctions against Russia, China will be able to easily replace the Europe and Ukraine as the main buyer of oil and natural gas that Russia is currently selling, to fuel their economy. China will definitely be a major beneficiary of the conflict in Ukraine, in my opinion.

[Zlantann]

China is benefitting from both Russia and the West, hence they need to be careful not to offend anyone. The disconnection of Russia from SWIFT  would make Russia seek alternative payments platforms that exist in China. China would also buy Russian oil and gas at a discounted price in case US stops buying.

Also, China wouldn't want to offend US and its allies because the are the biggest market for Chinese goods.

But we must understand that China always wanted the downfall of US, hence they would always support Russia.

[bitgolden]

There are a couple of things that need to be discussed here and seem to be off in the comments.
-snipped-

There is a difference between China going into Africa and being caught in the middle of some African civil war, versus their biggest ally Russia ending up in a sanctioned situation. This is even worse for them, they would prefer Russia to be doing amazingly well so that two communist nations get hold hands and rule the world together. If Russia does badly, that looks badly on China as well and they would also be losing support from a very important ally at the same time.

This is why I have to say that there is a good amount of money lost for China just because of this war, they are probably not happy with Putin's decision but they can't do much about it neither.

[Sithara007]

The relationship between China and Russia is too strong which will not make China to join other countries to fight Russian in this battle that is going on between Ukraine and Russian. But China will definitely use this opportunity to make a lot of money from Russian for the goods they are going to supply Russian that will make them untouchables till the end of the war. Based on the relationship, China knew that Russian government will definitely need some items from them during the war or after the war because of their relationship they have developed over some years.

The real reason why China is taking a pro-Russian stance right now is because they are planning similar operations in Taiwan and other disputed territories (such as the Senkaku Islands). On top of that, they are not happy with the Western involvement in the Hong Kong protests, as well as with the Xinjiang internal issues. And finally, Russia is an energy producing country and China is a consumer. A relationship between these two can be mutually beneficial for them. Higher energy prices is not something that China would want at this point.

[DrBeer]

China specific object. They are not for Russia and not against the United States. They are FOR YOURSELF! For the Chinese economy, the United States is the largest consumer, Russia is a raw materials appendage, and a vassal that can be manipulated to achieve its goals. Now China, according to its habit, philosophically observes what is happening, and waits for how it will end. And it will end soon, because. the Russian army is defeated and demoralized. After that, China will make a decision. Most likely, Putin will sell, of course, the matter is not open, another part of Russian lands to China, and receive some money, but these are already the convulsions of a dying economy. Write it down - by the summer of 2023, the economy in Russia will cease to exist. And China is buying up virtually everything, more or less valuable enterprises and entire segments of the economy, for next to nothing. Russia becomes part of China

[bakasabo]

China is acting very professionally by being neutrally, but making some announcement so that everyone dont forget that they exist. They will supply both, Russia and other countries by sanctioned goods with affordable price. They will only strengthen their economics with this war. They will supply Russia with clothes, spare parts, electronics, Russia on other hand will offer them special price for its resources and smart China will resell it.

[DrBeer]

China is acting very professionally by being neutrally, but making some announcement so that everyone dont forget that they exist. They will supply both, Russia and other countries by sanctioned goods with affordable price. They will only strengthen their economics with this war. They will supply Russia with clothes, spare parts, electronics, Russia on other hand will offer them special price for its resources and smart China will resell it.

Yeah - just the day before yesterday the news came out - Chinese goods and equipment, for Russia, rose by 30-40% China is very cruel in fact - it will "use" a weakening empire for its own benefit by 1000%, will play by the rules with a strong one. Russia for China is just a raw material appendage, nothing more. Well, the bearer of territories that historically belong to China, and in the future will be returned to China - after all, Russia opened a pandora's box - it said that "historical annexation" is normal! True, the stupidity of Russia again played a bad joke with her - now they themselves will become a victim of their decisions

[stompix]

And then all armchair generals that have continuously said China will bail out and help Russia get hit with reality:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-says-china-refuses-supply-aircraft-parts-after-sanctions-2022-03-10/

China has refused to supply Russian airlines with aircraft parts, an official at Russia's aviation authority was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying on Thursday, after Boeing (BA.N) and Airbus (AIR.PA) halted supply of components.

If someone thought that China will lend a helping hand and waste money on Russia when they can squeeze them dry and maybe do a little special operation themselves liberating a few Chinese territories that have been Chinese for a millennia and Russian for a century this is the moment you should wake up.

I can understand about this almost 90% of our household are China made.
Just look at the tags of every equipment, gadget or basically anything you can hold, and yes, it is Made in China.

Actually, not my fridge, not my washing machine, not my oven are made in China.
And assembled in Chian means one thing, made by Chinese companies is a different thing.
Take their former Huawei phone:


And that's the product of a Chinese company, on the others, the only Chinese things are only the fingerprints from the packaging.

If everything is made in China, then how come Germany exports 1.7 trillion of stuff?

[merchantofzeny]

I wonder if, despite the news about China refusing to sell Russia aircraft parts, that they'd still help secretly. If Russia loses this though or get heavily sanctioned, it is also to China's benefit since RUS would basically become a North Korea, cut off economically from the rest of the world and reduced to selling raw materials to China for cheap.

[Argoo]

I wonder if, despite the news about China refusing to sell Russia aircraft parts, that they'd still help secretly. If Russia loses this though or get heavily sanctioned, it is also to China's benefit since RUS would basically become a North Korea, cut off economically from the rest of the world and reduced to selling raw materials to China for cheap.

China will not secretly help Russia. The Chinese government will only do what is beneficial to it. And it is beneficial for China that Russia economically weakens and then there will be an opportunity to use its raw material base on the cheap. A weak Russia is sure to become a target for China in terms of its large territories. After all, China has long laid claim to a significant part of the territory of Siberia. Russia has introduced the rule of the strong into international politics and will itself suffer from it.