Russia cut off from Swift is fantastic opportunity for bitcoin

[7788bitcoin]

I'm reading many articles explaining that Russia shall be cut off from the SWIFT global interbank payments system, as a sanction in response to its invasion of Ukraine. That means it would be impossible to make bank transfers between Russia and most other countries.

The war is unfortunate and for Russia if they are stuck with sanctions then they will overcome those sanctions with cryptocurrency. Cutting off SWIFT is a major move but if they are overcoming these restrictions then there is no point in these sanctions  . Will see how these things will unfold as this will have a major impact economically on a global scale.

[1714254874]

1714254874

[Welsh]

Russia has been working on legalizing bitcoin for the last couple of weeks. They definitely knew what they were doing.

Sure, bitcoin cannot be banned but let's say the U.S and the EU decide to ban bitcoin just because Russia is using it to avoid their sanctions (or at least use that as an excuse), what do you think would happen then (if we're talking about the price)?

My thoughts exactly, we've timed the attack absolutely perfectly, and it seems that they've largely executed their plan perfectly too. I'm not completely sure on what their intentions were with promoting Bitcoin the last few weeks, and then obviously launching this war between Ukraine, but I can't help, but think Bitcoin has been a part of their plan for a long time.

There's two ways you could probably think of Russia adopting it in such a way; Either they see it as a threat, and could potentially be wanting to associate themselves with it, then carry out the attack against Ukraine which they were going to do anyway, knowing that if they promoted Bitcoin weeks before, and then its people, as well as Russia try to get around the sanctions via Bitcoin, that they thought it would be banned, which could effectively make Bitcoin inaccessible to any law abiding citizens in the West that would tank the price to almost unrecoverable amounts, which would significantly hurt Bitcoin's ability to recover due to now being known as what Russia used to sidestep the sanctions, as it does seem Russia is public enemy number one right now, especially in the West.

That's probably the far fetched end of the stick, however the alternative is they indeed did intend on using Bitcoin to sidestep the sanctions, but not to drag Bitcoin through the mud, but to use it instead of traditional currencies which they know would become difficult after the attack. Again, if the West did decide on banning Bitcoin collectively, that would probably have similar effects on the price as the sanctions, so would they really benefit from doing it?

There's definitely some other theories out there, but the main thing I get from this in terms of how it'll effect the price is negatively if Russia does indeed try to sidestep the sanctions with Bitcoin. If they don't, I actually see Bitcoin benefiting from this, It's not only Russia government that gets hit by the sanctions, but the people. The UK not trading with Russia has an impact on British people, who might seek alternatives. Ukraine's people are currently queueing outside banks in hopes they can withdraw their money, which if it does indeed prove to be difficult to do that, and in fear that their money now is worthless, they could look for an alternative in Bitcoin. This approach without Russia's government looking to sidestep sanctions probably increases the faith in Bitcoin from people, and provides an alternative, where they're securing their money, and any future wars or current wars means their wealth won't be rendered worthless simply because they can't withdraw it.

[DaveF]

I think they are promoting BTC so that the average Russian citizen can have that feeling that even if their banking is cut off from the rest of the world they can still move money. Big business has plans in place, as do the oligarchs. The average person does not. This allows them to still function with the outside world.

Side thought, and a sad bit of humor. 1st America did Vietnam and it did not go so well, then Russia did Afghanistan and that did not go so well, then the US did Afghanistan and it did not go well either, now Russia is doing Ukraine. Guess they wanted a new long drawn out conflict that will look like they are winning at 1st and then slowly get eroded away.

-Dave

[DeathAngel]

I'm reading many articles explaining that Russia shall be cut off from the SWIFT global interbank payments system, as a sanction in response to its invasion of Ukraine. That means it would be impossible to make bank transfers between Russia and most other countries.

I see this as an absolutely fantastic opportunity for BTC.
If you can"t use banks, just use BTC and be happy.

My fear is that Russia starts using bitcoin & then the West is aggressive towards bitcoin use in their countries. Obviously they can’t stop people using bitcoin but they can make it difficult for average joe. I don’t want to have to move country because I can’t sell bitcoin at a profit to buy a home etc because my bank blocks the winthdrawal from the exchange.

[bittraffic]

Russia has been working on legalizing bitcoin for the last couple of weeks.

Which still seems weird to me. Why would a nation, whose regime isn't known for seeking freedom, want to formalize Bitcoin... A currency known for decentralizing the economy. They have full control over their citizens via the banking system, I wonder what are their plans.  

I'll hold my breath for this.

Because Bitcoin is out of Swift's system. Bank of Russia I think will also be sanctioned by Biden because of Putin's action. Would that mean there is more freedom in Russia because they legalize BTC and not as people paint against Bukele and Putin as a dictator? I think so. Or I may just be seeing the positive side to these men that what are in the news.

I'm reading many articles explaining that Russia shall be cut off from the SWIFT global interbank payments system, as a sanction in response to its invasion of Ukraine. That means it would be impossible to make bank transfers between Russia and most other countries.

I see this as an absolutely fantastic opportunity for BTC.
If you can"t use banks, just use BTC and be happy.

My fear is that Russia starts using bitcoin & then the West is aggressive towards bitcoin use in their countries. Obviously they can’t stop people using bitcoin but they can make it difficult for average joe. I don’t want to have to move country because I can’t sell bitcoin at a profit to buy a home etc because my bank blocks the winthdrawal from the exchange.

It's possible because IMF is already aggressive to El Salvador and even Canada is freezing accounts that are linked to Truckers that did have issues related to cryptocurrency. I guess Bitcoin will be used more these days and this war is just going to fast forward the adoption of cryptocurrency.

[aruldaroy]

I'm reading many articles explaining that Russia shall be cut off from the SWIFT global interbank payments system, as a sanction in response to its invasion of Ukraine. That means it would be impossible to make bank transfers between Russia and most other countries.

I see this as an absolutely fantastic opportunity for BTC.
If you can"t use banks, just use BTC and be happy.

My fear is that Russia starts using bitcoin & then the West is aggressive towards bitcoin use in their countries. Obviously they can’t stop people using bitcoin but they can make it difficult for average joe. I don’t want to have to move country because I can’t sell bitcoin at a profit to buy a home etc because my bank blocks the winthdrawal from the exchange.

In addition to being afraid of the public, this will also be a complicated thing for people living in Russia if banks block withdrawals from the exchange.
And logically we also can't move countries just because we can't sell bitcoins as usual.

[serjent05]

Russia has been working on legalizing bitcoin for the last couple of weeks. They definitely knew what they were doing.

Leaders of Russia had been huge supporters of cryptocurrency even though there are some hiccups along the way of the country's crypto adoption.

Sure, bitcoin cannot be banned but let's say the U.S and the EU decide to ban bitcoin just because Russia is using it to avoid their sanctions (or at least use that as an excuse), what do you think would happen then (if we're talking about the price)?

We can see a sudden fall in price but eventually, it will recover.  That is to be expected whenever there is huge news regarding the Bitcoin adoption or Bitcoin ban.  Traders tend to react to FUD and HYPE and  manipulators always take advantage of the confusion but eventually, the market will recover.

[Lucius]

Some think that Russia will turn to Bitcoin if it is prevented from using SWIFT, but I do not believe that such a dictatorial country would ever officially accept Bitcoin, although it is possible that they are already using it for some of their dirty business. For those wondering why the US and EU are reluctant to kick Russia out of this payment system, the reason is very simple, too much money is at stake - and we all know that profit always comes first, and only then saving lives and helping people who they need help to defend themselves from aggressors.

Data from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) shows that European lenders hold the lion's share of the nearly $30 billion in foreign banks' exposure to Russia.

[CryptSafe]

I see this as a plus to the blockchain industry because this would pave way for the massive adoption  as a result of this cut off. Come to think of it, Russia has been on the verge of legalizing the use of bitcoin and from the look of it, it seems they knew what is ahead of them so cutting them off from  the swift payment system has no effect on them as they are already prepared for the unseen. Moreover, there are lots of competitors out there from Russia allies that are into swift payment, so you see. With the happenings unfolding, there would definitely be price increase on  bitcoin.

[countryfree]

So it seems that the US wants to kick Russia out of the Swift system, but that the EU doesn't want it. Maybe they'll change their minds in a few days when the situations gets worse. Meanwhile, the sanctions already agreed have an effect:

https://www.reuters.com/business/russian-cenbank-says-cards-banks-under-sanctions-wont-work-abroad-2022-02-25/

Russian people can't use their Sberbank or VTB cards abroad, or to shop abroad online. Maybe that will bring some retailers to accept BTC as a payment?

[pooya87]

I am thinking now that the reason why suddenly Russia changed its position over bitcoin or crypto, was because they were really in position to go to war.

But they never had any official position on bitcoin to want to change it! There has always been different sides arguing for and against bitcoin and they haven't reached consensus to this day. The thing is that the media only translates and publishes the negative side to spread FUD so you think their position is changed!

So it seems that the US wants to kick Russia out of the Swift system, but that the EU doesn't want it.

US wants to cause energy crisis in Europe and EU can't handle it so they don't want the escalation.

[hd49728]

So it seems that the US wants to kick Russia out of the Swift system, but that the EU doesn't want it. Maybe they'll change their minds in a few days when the situations gets worse. Meanwhile, the sanctions already agreed have an effect:

The EU can not do too serious sanctions on Russia because they are still relying too much on energy from Russia. 40% of EU energy is from Russia and we already saw how the energy crisis in the EU last winter.

It's bad for EU because many nations there are in their procedures to reduce carbon emission as well as shut down nuclear power plants. Their green energy increases in the last decade but in the same time, their power supply from nuclear power plants drop even further since the Fukushima Daiichi event.

I believe that Russia and Putin won't escalate their war to any Western nations beyond the Ukraine. They know that if they escalate it inaccurately, they will trigger the World War III and Putin does not want it. He can be a dictator in Russia but can not be the one like that globally.

[Marvelman]

So it seems that the US wants to kick Russia out of the Swift system, but that the EU doesn't want it. Maybe they'll change their minds in a few days when the situations gets worse. Meanwhile, the sanctions already agreed have an effect:

The EU can not do too serious sanctions on Russia because they are still relying too much on energy from Russia. 40% of EU energy is from Russia and we already saw how the energy crisis in the EU last winter.

It's bad for EU because many nations there are in their procedures to reduce carbon emission as well as shut down nuclear power plants. Their green energy increases in the last decade but in the same time, their power supply from nuclear power plants drop even further since the Fukushima Daiichi event.

I believe that Russia and Putin won't escalate their war to any Western nations beyond the Ukraine. They know that if they escalate it inaccurately, they will trigger the World War III and Putin does not want it. He can be a dictator in Russia but can not be the one like that globally.

The sanctions are not likely to stop Putin from doing what he wants, but will have a significant impact on the Russian economy. The idea is therefore to force Putin to change his foreign policy, but we know that Europe and the US cannot stop him right now, and the sanctions will weaken the EU's economy as well.

The EU needs to start seriously thinking about their independent policy on Russian gas exports in case Russia decides to cut gas shipments to Europe in the near future. The only way to get off the Russian gas dependence is to develop our own alternative supplies to make the EU independent of Russian gas.

[franky1]

in other news.
US and EU are not going to trigger the nuclear SWIFT option. as it would make russia more partnered to china and less reliant on EU/US
the US/EU only works if the US/EU can tie in their enemies into US/EU terms and conditions. but if russia moves over to use china's system, away from the US/EU, then the US/EU can no longer do things.

EG
just turning off swift might make russians touring in america no longer to spend funds in america. but russians on tour, can simply move their russian funds to a chinese system and then get a chinese card delivered to their american hotel and continue spending russian funds in america

meanwhile the US has less power /threat over russia because now russia is not reliant on the russia-US link
the US/EU fear pushing the issue to make russia be more reliant on china and less subservient to US/EU

russia has been involved in de-dolarisation for a while
moving from a 90% stronghold grasp by dollar in 2015 to a 45% in 2020
this control of russia would drop significantly if SWIFT was switched off.

[amishmanish]

SWIFT is used for major settlements and transactions between institutions across the globe. Any step to cutoff Russia from SWIFT would mean that none of their companies and people can pay for anything beyond their borders. The question is, does the average Russian directly makes use of SWIFT?

I think the answer would be no. It is mostly businesses and banks that do it with other businesses and other banks.

In order for Bitcoin to be an option, the other party would also have to accept Bitcoin. Just because Russia gets cutoff doesn't mean that the rest of the world will suddenly agree to circumvent the ban by exchanging BTC with them.

[franky1]

SWIFT is used for major settlements and transactions between institutions across the globe. Any step to cutoff Russia from SWIFT would mean that none of their companies and people can pay for anything beyond their borders.

businesses never pay for goods the same day. they do invoices and credit lines.
if a business cant pay its amount today, they simply find another option tomorrow. such as the chinese CIPS or their CBDC via m-bridge

[Jet Cash]

It is a bigger opportunity for the Chinese bankers to push their Asian payment system.What is more interesting is the switch to Euros from the dollar. There are 3 major world powers at the moment - Russia, China and the City of London. America and the EU are both puppets of the City of London, so one has to wonder why they are switching to the Euro. I guess they are going to use war to replace the  declining income from pseudo-vaccines, and run up US debt to collapse the dollar.

[evilgreed]

               I absolutely do not think that Russia even considers the option of using bitcoin or any other crypto currency right now since they aren't even on a very desperate situation yet. Mind you, Russia right now still has Italy and Germany which is their traditional customers which have both disagrees with the idea of cutting Russia off from Swift. But even if they do get cut off, they still have china as an option which China would gladly accept. I may be wrong but it's just how I understand the current situation.

[countryfree]

I understand the logic that without Swift, Russia would get closer to China, but that's the worst thing which could ever happen.

Russia is a dying country, whereas China is a high growth country. You just need to walk in St Petersburg, where everything is old and rotten. You won't see anything new, whereas in Shanghai, there are hundreds of shiny new skyscrappers, new electric buses, all the people have the latest smartphones, there are huge billboard screens everywhere, malls brighter than a Las Vegas casino...

Between China and BTC, Russians would be wiser to choose crypto.

[franky1]

Russia is a dying country, whereas China is a high growth country. You just need to walk in St Petersburg, where everything is old and rotten. You won't see anything new, whereas in Shanghai, there are hundreds of shiny new skyscrappers, new electric buses, all the people have the latest smartphones, there are huge billboard screens everywhere, malls brighter than a Las Vegas casino...

hmm. seems some love the Fox news imagery

St peterburg is like london circa 1995 architecture
however
moscow is like london circa now, it even has more population then london
many people think this is how they see moscow

though this is how others see moscow


if your watching news reports where a reporter has deliberately stood in a ancient architectural area, maybe the other story they are telling is that they want viewers to see "russia" as ancient

you know. like those charity aid TV adverts that show shanty towns in ethiopia.
yet if they were to pan the camera around they would see the shanty towns border large city scapes.
this is the ethiopia you will never see on an oxfam/foodaid charity advert


.. much like how countryfree specifically tried to pick st petersburg, rather than moscow for comparison, to make it seem like everything in russia is like st petersburg

im not for russia or asia, but i atleast have an open mind to look beyond the propaganda
as for picking an outlet for international funds

look into the BIS and their M-bridge. linking russian and chinese CBDC
the BIS is like the brics equivalent to the amero IMF