Dollar rise and fall during the beginning of the Russia and Ukraine war

[gantez]

Yesterday I observed a steady increase in the pricing of dollar from the beginning of the this week high. But later in the day, there was a sharp fall in the price and closing on a low. So is there any relation to Dollar in the situation of war in Russia and Ukraine? especially as the sanction of Russia was announced yesterday. Are investors selling off dollar and running to bitcoin or are Russians immediately dumping their dollars?

[jackg]

The usd/rub pair just experienced some volatility yesterday because Ukraine declared they'd been invaded.

For quite a bit of yesterday I don't think anyone was too sure how the invasion would go (especially since some troops turned away or surrendered to Ukraine).

I think the market just reacted yesterday because the dollar was considered more stable than the rouble and it mightve been uncertain how Ukraine would've responded to a Russian invasion (for example if they still had a nuclear arsonal somewhere or how powerful their missile defensive was).

[gantez]

I think the market just reacted yesterday because the dollar was considered more stable than the rouble and it mightve been uncertain how Ukraine would've responded to a Russian invasion (for example if they still had a nuclear arsonal somewhere or how powerful their missile defensive was).

Nuclear weapon and Ukraine



I heard on the news yesterday the possibility of Ukraine having nuclear weapons and later it was analyse that they agreed to destroy them in 1994. And further research above has confirmed that they did agree to destroy them, so what is left for Ukraine in that aspect and this may be reason Putin's invasion.

[stompix]

Yesterday I observed a steady increase in the pricing of dollar from the beginning of the this week high. But later in the day, there was a sharp fall in the price and closing on a low.

Price of the dollar against what?

Here is the Swiss Franc which poeple look at for stability:

The Euro:


The dollar is up from the start of the week against both of them, so at what chart are you looking at?

Are investors selling off dollar and running to bitcoin or are Russians immediately dumping their dollars?

After they got through all that trouble amusing dollars to survive possible sanctions?
Russian banks imported $5 billion in foreign cash in December
Poeple are betting on a new round of talks, especially after Xi came and told Putin to start negotiations with Ukraine.

[so98nn]

This is very obvious that we will see lot of ups and downs in the dollar, rub, and even the crypto currency’s which is the only interest for us if we are here right now. At least guy like me is thinking about crypto only. Though it’s bad news that one nation is suffering from the brutal force of Russia, it has created black hole in the crypto universe which led us to the price chart of the past. It’s best to keep our asset secured on the crypto now as the war could grow even worse looking at the current situation.

Rest of the currencies will drop heavily, this is what happens in the War. That’s why the inflation goes beyond the limits and it devalues the money.

Remember, bitcoin still would be bitcoin now and forever.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Price of the dollar against what?


The dollar is up from the start of the week against both of them, so at what chart are you looking at?

Maybe OP ment intra daily volatility of DXY index:



Which spiked after war news and dumped back down.

@OP During "fear events" investors move founds from risky assets to safe haven. Americans sell foreign stocks, foreign currencies (buying pressure on dollar), they move $$ to gold, US bonds, big and safe currencies. So when everyone is scared, everything is duping except gold, US bonds, dollar. After a while everyone calmed down. And dollar started to go back down.

[Fortify]

Yesterday I observed a steady increase in the pricing of dollar from the beginning of the this week high. But later in the day, there was a sharp fall in the price and closing on a low. So is there any relation to Dollar in the situation of war in Russia and Ukraine? especially as the sanction of Russia was announced yesterday. Are investors selling off dollar and running to bitcoin or are Russians immediately dumping their dollars?

So you took a look at the price movements of the Dollar, saw it swinging up and down (which it does every single day) and make some wildly incoherent guesses as to the cause? First off, if people were "selling off dollars" to convert them into Bitcoin, why did Bitcoin drop by a hefty amount yesterday as well, or you couldn't be bothered to check such a simple fact? Russian's are more likely to be buying dollars than dumping them, because Russia is facing all sorts of economic sanctions for their unjustified war and the Rouble dropped to an all time low. Yesterday was a crazy day in the markets and all sorts of motivations were coming through, but you've instantly jumped to some pretty dumb conclusions, so bravo for that.

[The Cryptovator]

We can't expect stability anywhere when there is war. The whole world's economy is shaky now including Bitcoin. So up down dollar value is just a normal reaction. Because for any reason buy pressure and sell pressure would increase or decrease as well. Since the US confines Russia so Russia wouldn't appreciate US Dollar anymore at this point. So likely they would leave the dollar and enter crypto to secure their funds. We are unaware of what is going on exactly.

[Hydrogen]

Yesterday I observed a steady increase in the pricing of dollar from the beginning of the this week high. But later in the day, there was a sharp fall in the price and closing on a low. So is there any relation to Dollar in the situation of war in Russia and Ukraine? especially as the sanction of Russia was announced yesterday. Are investors selling off dollar and running to bitcoin or are Russians immediately dumping their dollars?

Confidence in fiat currency, is correlated with confidence in the nations who issue them. The united states may be perceived as being "weak" for not doing more to defend ukraine's border, leading to reduced confidence in the US dollar.

We have had news of russian troops massing on ukraine's border for awhile now. Inside traders could recognize a short opportunity if a russian invasion of ukraine occurs. The most basic method to boost profits on a short trade is to 1st elevate the price of the asset so it can fall further and generate greater profits. This could be defined by the price rising before the expected fall.

We know that insider trading of assets does occur. Politicians and military analysts who have better information than the general public, can trade assets like the dollar on the inside information they have on whether war is coming. This is certainly nothing new and has been the norm for centuries.

[adaseb]

2 days ago when the invasion started many expected a massive stock market crash and crypto crash. What happened? The complete opposite.

Why it reversed its hard to say. Some say that it’s because of capital flight to stocks from declining currencies. Some say that the sanctions are not that strict. Others say that unless Russia attacks another country then they will assume that it doesn’t affect most of the world. Most people are still working and going to school.

If you look at past wars, usually the invasion is the bottom and stocks reverse from there.

[tabas]

Yesterday I observed a steady increase in the pricing of dollar from the beginning of the this week high. But later in the day, there was a sharp fall in the price and closing on a low. So is there any relation to Dollar in the situation of war in Russia and Ukraine? especially as the sanction of Russia was announced yesterday. Are investors selling off dollar and running to bitcoin or are Russians immediately dumping their dollars?

Yes, there's an effect due to the war. AFAIK, Ukrainians have been buying premium Tether which is pegged to dollars so there's also the connection with it on USD alone. And as for the fall of its price, it's all about the bigger players in the market that has dumped it alone. But knowing that if it's related to buying bitcoin, who knows. It's likely a yes but not entirely as what we're thinking. There's a massive money flowing whenever there's a war, like in crude oil, the price has been hiking for so many weeks. I can't even remember when that hike started. Even US and other countries put an economic sanction to Russia, they'll still be able to make it. China is with them and US can't be par with them anymore.

[el kaka22]

We can't expect stability anywhere when there is war. The whole world's economy is shaky now including Bitcoin. So up down dollar value is just a normal reaction. Because for any reason buy pressure and sell pressure would increase or decrease as well. Since the US confines Russia so Russia wouldn't appreciate US Dollar anymore at this point. So likely they would leave the dollar and enter crypto to secure their funds. We are unaware of what is going on exactly.

I would assume that nations that are totally irrelevant should have been fine. I am not saying that they are doing better or anything like that, but I am assuming that they should be fine. Like just to make something up, why would Ugandan economy be bad? I don't know if it is doing good or bad but I am just saying it should be totally irrelevant right?

In the same logic, there are some nations who are doing worse because of a "potential" crisis, like just because there is a potential for it, why price that into the markets today before it happens? They are doing it to avoid the future collapse in case something happens but they are causing the problem even before it happens this way. Makes no sense to me.

[gantez]

Yesterday I observed a steady increase in the pricing of dollar from the beginning of the this week high. But later in the day, there was a sharp fall in the price and closing on a low. So is there any relation to Dollar in the situation of war in Russia and Ukraine? especially as the sanction of Russia was announced yesterday. Are investors selling off dollar and running to bitcoin or are Russians immediately dumping their dollars?

So you took a look at the price movements of the Dollar, saw it swinging up and down (which it does every single day) and make some wildly incoherent guesses as to the cause? First off, if people were "selling off dollars" to convert them into Bitcoin, why did Bitcoin drop by a hefty amount yesterday as well, or you couldn't be bothered to check such a simple fact? Russian's are more likely to be buying dollars than dumping them, because Russia is facing all sorts of economic sanctions for their unjustified war and the Rouble dropped to an all time low. Yesterday was a crazy day in the markets and all sorts of motivations were coming through, but you've instantly jumped to some pretty dumb conclusions, so bravo for that.

Looking on the post and your response, you see a little harsh comment you made. I tried to ask a question about if there is a relation to dollar comparing to the war going on in Ukraine with the sanctions on Russia. So I didn't conclude or assumed but it was an open and also reasonable question too.  Meanwhile, the price of dollar and bitcoin were not stable but had fast volatility that caused my question. I didn't jump into conclusion but seeking clarification.

[istiak2277]

Yesterday I observed a steady increase in the pricing of dollar from the beginning of the this week high. But later in the day, there was a sharp fall in the price and closing on a low. So is there any relation to Dollar in the situation of war in Russia and Ukraine? especially as the sanction of Russia was announced yesterday. Are investors selling off dollar and running to bitcoin or are Russians immediately dumping their dollars?

Only 16% of Russia's reserve funds is in dollar and banning them from swift would freeze their funds so i do not think they dump their dollars. Their could be some sell off because of the uncertainty of this war situation. Also Putin ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces on alert. This could cause the panic to the overall market which causes the volatility.

[CaVO32]

Yesterday I observed a steady increase in the pricing of dollar from the beginning of the this week high. But later in the day, there was a sharp fall in the price and closing on a low. So is there any relation to Dollar in the situation of war in Russia and Ukraine? especially as the sanction of Russia was announced yesterday. Are investors selling off dollar and running to bitcoin or are Russians immediately dumping their dollars?

Yes, there's an effect due to the war. AFAIK, Ukrainians have been buying premium Tether which is pegged to dollars so there's also the connection with it on USD alone. And as for the fall of its price, it's all about the bigger players in the market that has dumped it alone. But knowing that if it's related to buying bitcoin, who knows. It's likely a yes but not entirely as what we're thinking. There's a massive money flowing whenever there's a war, like in crude oil, the price has been hiking for so many weeks. I can't even remember when that hike started. Even US and other countries put an economic sanction to Russia, they'll still be able to make it. China is with them and US can't be par with them anymore.

This war has definitely influence in the current market. Though we don't know how big it will be in the next coming days but we are already seeing some immediate effect in their market. If the sanction towards Russia will be imposed,  totally cutting off from SWIFT, I can say that there will be an impact in their financial system. We may not see it right away, but it can cripple their economy for certain period of time. So they will look for alternatives, and I am seeing that crypto may be one option that they will be eyeing as one alternative. But let us see to how long Putin is planning this war? Is he not going to stop up until he captured or killed Zelensky?

[adaseb]

It’s very hard to get an accurate rate of the Ruble currency. It seems that there are many markets however the prices are different everywhere.

From banking sources it seems the price is over 100 rubles per dollar however if you check on Binance, the pair against USDT the price is around 90 rubles. If you check Forex it seems it’s completely frozen with a huge spike around 100.

Other forex pairs are still frozen and not moving. My guess is that it’s maybe because it’s too early and Russian banks aren’t opened yet but forex is suppose to trade 24 hours during the week, very strange.