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Author Topic: First SWIFT, then Bitcoin?  (Read 198 times)
zeuner (OP)
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February 27, 2022, 02:23:49 AM
 #1

In reaction to aggressions against Ukraine, SWIFT-based transfers are planned to be blocked. This may leave cryptovalues as the best next option. Will the pro-Ukraine alliance be forced to ban Bitcoin as a subsequent step?
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February 27, 2022, 10:26:54 AM
Last edit: February 27, 2022, 11:48:45 AM by Zlantann
 #2

Yes Bitcoin has a big opportunity to be widely used in Russia. But Russia is not totally cut off from SWIFT but just few banks are affected. This is because Europe still need to buy from Russia. Also, Russia can seek alternative payment or transaction system which is readily available in China. Hence, Bitcoin will not be Russia's only alternative. But, banning the use of Bitcoin would further compound the economic problems of Europe. The isolation of Russia is already a big shock to the European economy. If they try it, China and Russia will cease the opportunity and investors in Europe will move to Asia.

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sunsilk
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February 27, 2022, 10:56:49 AM
 #3

Will the pro-Ukraine alliance be forced to ban Bitcoin as a subsequent step?
Why should they do that? Just because Russia has an option to use bitcoin after the swift blockage, they're going to ban it as well? How about Ukraine? They're also using it for the donations that they've been gathering to fund their arms.

I think the allies would just focus on fiat transfers and even they're aware of the option to use bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for their wealth transfer and funding, they can't still stop Russia even if they do that.


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February 27, 2022, 11:31:43 AM
 #4

In reaction to aggressions against Ukraine, SWIFT-based transfers are planned to be blocked. This may leave cryptovalues as the best next option. Will the pro-Ukraine alliance be forced to ban Bitcoin as a subsequent step?

Didn't they recently pass an amendment for bitcoin and other crypto assets? These was suppose to bring more investors to the country. As long as zelensky on the power i do not think he will ban bitcoin. Russia already had trade agreement with china so this sanction could not do much as i can see. Putin had already prepared Russia for such a situation. Banning bitcoin won't change anything either.

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February 27, 2022, 02:01:35 PM
 #5

Russia has announced a new stance towards bitcoins weeks before they rolled into Kyiv so we can guess that they've already prepared to do transactions in crypto. Yes the pro-Ukraine can block Russia from using exchanges but I think Russia would have ways to circumvent that.
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February 27, 2022, 02:40:05 PM
 #6

Will the pro-Ukraine alliance be forced to ban Bitcoin as a subsequent step?
And how exactly will they ban Bitcoin use in Russia?
Maybe there is a point I am missing.

I mean if the powerful Governments have failed to get rid of Bitcoin after all those years then why do you think this time round they will be able to ban it this time round?


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February 27, 2022, 11:06:20 PM
 #7

Bitcoin is not nearly liquid enough for Russia to move any meaningful amount of money through. Russia also has no need to use bitcoin for his financial transactions, they will just use Chinese payment systems.
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February 28, 2022, 02:08:36 AM
 #8

They cannot ban bitcoin, and bitcoin is already being used to fund the Ukrainian cause, even their gov is directly receiving donations, and others thru different organizations are helping channel efforts using bitcoin. More than 150 BTC has already been donated and even more is on the way.

On the other hand, Putin has been trying to ban bitcoin, and forcing miners to sell it all to the Russian central bank. So he isolated his country by himself. No one beyond them will accept digital or physical rubles, this is even more of a reason centralized State backed altcoins are utter garbage.

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February 28, 2022, 02:49:35 AM
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It's possible to block BTC though because Ukraine is under martial law and they could track if they want to and size the funds if the BTC goes into a portal to cash out fiat like banks.

Ukrainian officials are accepting BTC for donations, they needed it as much as Russian would. I'm sure they are aware of the funds frozen for truckers in Canada. BTC or any other crypto is an option for them but for Russians, BTC will be a better option because the sanctioning of individuals is possible.

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February 28, 2022, 05:34:54 AM
 #10

Most likely the big countries will not block Russia from SWIFT because it will cause a very massive impact for the Russian economy in the long run and it will definitely make matters more complex. So blocking Russia from SWIFT is not a solution for now. Also, the pro-Ukrainian alliance is unlikely to ban Russia for Bitcoin, because it is almost impossible.

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February 28, 2022, 10:33:14 AM
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If I'm not mistaken, then Russia was going to ban cryptocurrencies or restrict them quite severely. So they are fucked up

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zeuner (OP)
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March 07, 2022, 05:17:24 PM
 #12

Yes Bitcoin has a big opportunity to be widely used in Russia. But Russia is not totally cut off from SWIFT but just few banks are affected. This is because Europe still need to buy from Russia. Also, Russia can seek alternative payment or transaction system which is readily available in China. Hence, Bitcoin will not be Russia's only alternative. But, banning the use of Bitcoin would further compound the economic problems of Europe. The isolation of Russia is already a big shock to the European economy. If they try it, China and Russia will cease the opportunity and investors in Europe will move to Asia.

Considering that embargoes on oil and gas from Russia are at least being discussed by now, it's obvious that self-harm is not a no-go when discussing sanctions. So, I don't see why anyone would avoid banning Bitcoin because it causes economic problems for Europe. Some movement in that direction is at least visible: https://news.coincu.com/68177-ecb-president-create-a-crypto-regulatory-framework-now-to-prevent-russia-from-circling-the-law/.

It probably wouldn't make sense before cutting off all the Russian banks from SWIFT, though.
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March 08, 2022, 02:59:57 PM
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Yes Bitcoin has a big opportunity to be widely used in Russia. But Russia is not totally cut off from SWIFT but just few banks are affected. This is because Europe still need to buy from Russia. Also, Russia can seek alternative payment or transaction system which is readily available in China. Hence, Bitcoin will not be Russia's only alternative. But, banning the use of Bitcoin would further compound the economic problems of Europe. The isolation of Russia is already a big shock to the European economy. If they try it, China and Russia will cease the opportunity and investors in Europe will move to Asia.

Considering that embargoes on oil and gas from Russia are at least being discussed by now, it's obvious that self-harm is not a no-go when discussing sanctions. So, I don't see why anyone would avoid banning Bitcoin because it causes economic problems for Europe. Some movement in that direction is at least visible: https://news.coincu.com/68177-ecb-president-create-a-crypto-regulatory-framework-now-to-prevent-russia-from-circling-the-law/.

It probably wouldn't make sense before cutting off all the Russian banks from SWIFT, though.

Not all banks in Russia are sanction though.

But getting around the SWIFT system is often the usual reaction of countries getting sanctioned. The number of countries being sanctioned are increasing too. The sanctions could only back because Russia is not only a big economic power but has alies that are also willing to cut ties from the West. If they all band together, these sanctions will be useless.


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March 11, 2022, 01:29:38 PM
 #14

Russia has announced a new stance towards bitcoins weeks before they rolled into Kyiv so we can guess that they've already prepared to do transactions in crypto. Yes the pro-Ukraine can block Russia from using exchanges but I think Russia would have ways to circumvent that.

Exactly. Even if all exchanges supported the blocking, the huge fuel reserves could be used for mining. So, the only option would be that the sanctioning countries would ban Bitcoin on their side. Europe has postponed the ban on Proof-Of-Work tokens for now, but who knows for how long.
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March 11, 2022, 01:52:23 PM
 #15

In reaction to aggressions against Ukraine, SWIFT-based transfers are planned to be blocked. This may leave cryptovalues as the best next option. Will the pro-Ukraine alliance be forced to ban Bitcoin as a subsequent step?

Sec Warren recently said that "crypto is the hole. Crypto, you have to choose, either do business in Russia, or do business in the US, but you can't do both."

She wants to fight 'tyranny' with tyranny itself. Ridiculous.
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March 11, 2022, 04:10:10 PM
 #16

In reaction to aggressions against Ukraine, SWIFT-based transfers are planned to be blocked. This may leave cryptovalues as the best next option. Will the pro-Ukraine alliance be forced to ban Bitcoin as a subsequent step?

We don't know but I believe they can if they want to. Now assuming they did manage to ban Russians from foreign crypto exchanges. What can Russians do? Do they have exchanges that are based in Russia that Russians would be at least be able to use in their own country?

I'm curious how jurisdictions would work. I suppose they can ask exchanges based outside Russia to ban Russians from use but what if the exchange is based in Russia? Wouldn't banning it would also result people from other countries that have their money in there to lose access to it?

Sec Warren recently said that "crypto is the hole. Crypto, you have to choose, either do business in Russia, or do business in the US, but you can't do both."

She wants to fight 'tyranny' with tyranny itself. Ridiculous.

That was like asking money to choose sides LOL.

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March 11, 2022, 06:48:04 PM
 #17

Yes they can do that but why they do that. Just because of Russia. I don't think so.
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March 11, 2022, 09:36:04 PM
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Yes Bitcoin has a big opportunity to be widely used in Russia. But Russia is not totally cut off from SWIFT but just few banks are affected. This is because Europe still need to buy from Russia. Also, Russia can seek alternative payment or transaction system which is readily available in China. Hence, Bitcoin will not be Russia's only alternative. But, banning the use of Bitcoin would further compound the economic problems of Europe. The isolation of Russia is already a big shock to the European economy. If they try it, China and Russia will cease the opportunity and investors in Europe will move to Asia.

Considering that embargoes on oil and gas from Russia are at least being discussed by now, it's obvious that self-harm is not a no-go when discussing sanctions. So, I don't see why anyone would avoid banning Bitcoin because it causes economic problems for Europe. Some movement in that direction is at least visible: https://news.coincu.com/68177-ecb-president-create-a-crypto-regulatory-framework-now-to-prevent-russia-from-circling-the-law/.

It probably wouldn't make sense before cutting off all the Russian banks from SWIFT, though.

Not all banks in Russia are sanction though.

But getting around the SWIFT system is often the usual reaction of countries getting sanctioned. The number of countries being sanctioned are increasing too. The sanctions could only back because Russia is not only a big economic power but has alies that are also willing to cut ties from the West. If they all band together, these sanctions will be useless.



Russia has been circumventing SWIFT by using their own financial systems when trading with countries like China. And China has made it clear they won't be cutting off trade with Russia. The sanctions hurt but Russia's been taking steps to mitigate them for some number of years. And even if they didn't, this money isn't coming out of Putin's pocket, just Russian citizens who have nothing to do with the war efforts.
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March 14, 2022, 06:22:58 PM
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Russia doesn't need a thing from the world. It's simply a loss of convenience for them. Anyrhing they might need they can get from China.

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