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Author Topic: Inflation hits Russia  (Read 533 times)
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February 28, 2022, 10:44:54 AM
 #1

USDT records new all-time high against Russian ruble as inflation hits

War will always damage the economy of the affected countries, this is the 5th day of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the US, EU and generally the UN have been sanctioning Russia since the start of the Russia - Ukraine war which includes removing Russia from Swift and many other sanctions. Russia's central bank doubled key interest rates on Feb. 28, from 9.5% to 20% and USDT which is pegged to USD which has increased 30% against Russian ruble (RUR) within five days of war. Bitcoin trading volume on crypto exchanges in Ukraine spiked 200%.

This is likely the beginning of the war if it does not cease anytime soon, I am been seeing some people saying the EU needs Russia than Russia needs them, that they depend on crude oil and many mineral resources from Russia, but what is causing the inflation in Russia is because of the Russia - Ukraine war. This could be more severe if the war does not ends soon. With the look of what is going on, Russia has been planing this for years and this has led to some people killed and many left their homes.

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February 28, 2022, 11:12:03 AM
 #2

I believed that in the worst case, Russia would intervene in eastern Ukraine and perhaps only expand the occupied territories to create a larger pro-Russian zone - and that this would take several days due to the military strength of the Russian army. Unfortunately, this is no longer a military conflict but an open war aimed at occupying Ukraine, and according to their leader, some other countries will be next in line if they try to join NATO.

The EU depends on Russia, especially for gas - but will have to look for an alternative if it wants to be consistent in the sanctions against it. It is a bit hypocritical that it was announced a few days ago that the amount of gas will even be increased towards the EU, which means that the money is going in the opposite direction - on the one hand, we have sanctions, on the other hand, the EU finances Russian military machinery by buying Russian gas.

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February 28, 2022, 11:17:41 AM
 #3

I believed that in the worst case, Russia would intervene in eastern Ukraine and perhaps only expand the occupied territories to create a larger pro-Russian zone - and that this would take several days due to the military strength of the Russian army. Unfortunately, this is no longer a military conflict but an open war aimed at occupying Ukraine, and according to their leader, some other countries will be next in line if they try to join NATO.

The EU depends on Russia, especially for gas - but will have to look for an alternative if it wants to be consistent in the sanctions against it. It is a bit hypocritical that it was announced a few days ago that the amount of gas will even be increased towards the EU, which means that the money is going in the opposite direction - on the one hand, we have sanctions, on the other hand, the EU finances Russian military machinery by buying Russian gas.
That could probably work but Ukraine will definitely mention it as a part of the negotiation that the invaded territories be returned to Ukraine. The best course of action here is to piss off the Russian bear by having all the countries mobilize their military, we are a hopeless species so why not go all out and insure a mutually assured destruction. Regarding the oil, can't the whole Europe just switch to Middle East? I'm assuming that they don't want to because it's going to make the oil much more expensive.



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February 28, 2022, 11:20:58 AM
 #4

I believed that in the worst case, Russia would intervene in eastern Ukraine and perhaps only expand the occupied territories to create a larger pro-Russian zone - and that this would take several days due to the military strength of the Russian army. Unfortunately, this is no longer a military conflict but an open war aimed at occupying Ukraine, and according to their leader, some other countries will be next in line if they try to join NATO.

The EU depends on Russia, especially for gas - but will have to look for an alternative if it wants to be consistent in the sanctions against it. It is a bit hypocritical that it was announced a few days ago that the amount of gas will even be increased towards the EU, which means that the money is going in the opposite direction - on the one hand, we have sanctions, on the other hand, the EU finances Russian military machinery by buying Russian gas.

I always thought that it was a mistake to enter in such a dependency from Russia. It is an unreliable supplier at best and has a history of going mostly against western Europe interests. Nevertheless, there are not that many Gas producing countries you can choose from and it is very efficient to move gas via a pipe rather than having to liquate transport by ship and then re-gas.

This war of aggression by Putin will serve Europe to make sure they consider carefully the future energetic mix, supply chains and may also bring neutral countries into the NATO rather than the opposite.

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February 28, 2022, 11:27:39 AM
 #5

In fact, everything is much more serious than what you wrote here. If inflation in Russia increases another tenfold, then this will only be flowers compared to what should happen to Russia's finances and economy in the near future. The question is whether the Russian economy will be able to survive at all from the consequences of the attack on Ukraine and the “hellish” international sanctions imposed after that.
It is already obvious that invincible Russia is losing the war with a relatively small Ukraine. So let's see what will happen to Russia in just a few months.

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February 28, 2022, 11:32:08 AM
 #6

Quote
I am been seeing some people saying the EU needs Russia than Russia needs them, that they depend on crude oil and many mineral resources from Russia, but what is causing the inflation in Russia is because of the Russia - Ukraine war.

The EU might be dependent on the Russian oil and gas,but Russia is dependent on the revenue it gets from selling the oil and gas to the EU members.This is more like a codependency,and Russia can't easily switch to selling more oil and gas to China,due to the lack of enough pipelines.
Both the Russian and Ukrainian national currencies were hit by big devaluation,which is normal,if we consider the situation.
It has been historically proven that a war inevitably leads to inflation/currency devaluation inside the countries,that are participating in a military conflict.

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February 28, 2022, 11:42:36 AM
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This is likely the beginning of the war if it does not cease anytime soon, I am been seeing some people saying the EU needs Russia than Russia needs them, that they depend on crude oil and many mineral resources from Russia, but what is causing the inflation in Russia is because of the Russia - Ukraine war. This could be more severe if the war does not ends soon. With the look of what is going on, Russia has been planing this for years and this has led to some people killed and many left their homes.

You don't expect the sanctions not to bounce on the Russian economy but it is only coming to me faster than I expect but I'm not surprised. I thought Russia got it worked out already. The heavy blow on Russia for now is the remover of their banks from swift. I watched the EU president (Ursula von der Leyen) speech on the sanction, the woman said with that action it would be difficult for Russia to trade easily and that will affect their economy e also getting military facilities to prosecute the war will be difficult. I think all the sanctions are all rolling out different effect. Russia and Ukraine are suppose to have discussion in Belarus border, we hope for resolution and peace to come back to them.

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February 28, 2022, 01:59:37 PM
 #8

Over the last decade, I think the quantity of food russia natively produces has steadily risen, as they have sought to become more independent and rely less on foreign imports. Not many remember the war in crimea which occurred back in 2014. The last war in ukraine which occurred roughly 8 years ago. Since then, it appears russia has taken steps to harden their economy against events like sanctions. Certianly we have many reports in the media claiming that russia's economy is in dire straits and being hit hard. Yet it is entirely possible that rumors of russia's economic demise are premature and exaggerated at best.

Russia being the 3rd largest producer of oil in the world, would appear to have their energy sector covered. Russia may also be the largest provider of nuclear fuel in the world. Their food production is likely up to the task of self sufficiency, as I believe they export some of the food they produce abroad.

They have also very obviously taken steps to segregate their networks and communications from global communication any way they can to prevent electronic interference.

Areas where russia could be vulnerable may be semiconductors and other items which are already difficult to obtain in global markets. But I do not think that would greatly affect the distribution of military power or anything that is relevant.

I don't think there are any easy methods to disrupt russia's economy which is currently structured to be resistant to inflation more than all other major economies in the world. I don't think these negative headlines about russia's economy will age well. But we can see.
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February 28, 2022, 02:16:05 PM
 #9

Obviously, it will happen because other countries are sanctioning Russia, however, I think they already know the effect of the war and they are ready for it. I'm hoping the war will stop but as we are seeing Ukraine is not surrendering and they are fighting until the last drop.

it's not about the economy now, it's about on which country will survive.

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February 28, 2022, 03:25:18 PM
 #10

Regarding the oil, can't the whole Europe just switch to Middle East? I'm assuming that they don't want to because it's going to make the oil much more expensive.

We are talking about gas here, not oil. Norway is the second-largest producer in Europe after Russia, but its export potential is almost half that of Russia (data for 2020). It is most cost-effective to transport gas through gas pipelines, and delivering it by ship only means a higher price for the final consumer. In addition, such a system of transport by ships means that it is necessary to provide infrastructure in the form of LNG terminals (Liquified Natural Gas) because the gas on ships is converted into a liquid, and then returned to the gaseous state in the terminal.



I always thought that it was a mistake to enter in such a dependency from Russia. It is an unreliable supplier at best and has a history of going mostly against western Europe interests. Nevertheless, there are not that many Gas producing countries you can choose from and it is very efficient to move gas via a pipe rather than having to liquate transport by ship and then re-gas.

Of course, it is a mistake, but the one you are forced to do because you simply have no other choice if you want cheap energy. If we go back to the past and the Second World War, we know that Hitler attacked Russia precisely because of its resources, and that ultimately cost him defeat. History would be quite different if he succeeded, but let's say that Russia still keeps Germany and a good part of EU countries in a very awkward position - although I don't understand why Russia continues to supply gas to the EU.

Especially when the decision was made that the EU will start sending weapons to Ukraine - which means that the Russians will suffer even greater losses in manpower and combat vehicles, but also in the air force.

From its own stockpile, the German government will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger anti-aircraft defense systems to Ukraine. The government has also authorized the Netherlands to send Ukraine 400 rocket-propelled grenade launchers and told Estonia it ship over send nine howitzers.

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March 01, 2022, 06:50:16 AM
 #11

What did they expected? I mean whatever they do, will be done to them and that is the nature of the war. They are fighting against Ukraine? Well Ukraine will fight against them. They want to stop Nato from doing something? Well Nato will help Ukraine win the war. They want to use their money for power grabbing all around the world? Well their money will be seized (hence inflation).

Even in a very harsh nuclear situation, if they ever send Nuclear weapons to anywhere in the world, I guarantee you there will be nukes sent their way as well and they may think that maybe they can stop them, but there are over 15 thousand nukes in the world, eventually a few will hit. So long story short, inaction would be the best resolution for them.

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gantez
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March 01, 2022, 12:23:32 PM
 #12

They want to stop Nato from doing something? Well Nato will help Ukraine win the war.


Sorry here I don't think that NATO as an organization will be doing anything on that. In this Ukraine is not a member of NATO and this can't allow NATO to start any fight with Russia. They can protect the NATO state in the area. Ukraine can rely more on EU to help to tighten sanctions against Russia and for the main time EU is already giving out sanctions to Russia and the economy is feeling the impact. The Russian people have been blocked from many financial payment system and that is giving alot of queues in banks. Master and Visa card, Apple are all not giving service to Russia people.
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March 01, 2022, 12:37:34 PM
 #13

Not only the ruble but also the stock market, for example, has collapsed by 70% in the last days. If you add to this the massive drop in the value of the Russian currency, then shares have lost almost 97% of their value within a good week and a half. This is unprecedented in history and has not happened even during the most severe crashes. I would not have thought something like this possible, not at this speed.
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March 01, 2022, 06:39:30 PM
 #14

Quite funny how some people have been saying that Putin have planned this for long and he’s prepared for what’s coming, lol, this shows he has no plans at all. I guess he thought that the world relies too much on Russia, but that’s not true from what we are seeing right now, since there will always be alternatives.

Russia would be the one to suffer this the most, they are the ones that are being sanctioned and their economy would start taking the hit and would continue falling. The way I am seeing it, the world is solidly in support of Ukraine right now, so the best thing that Russia can do right now is to stop this invasion and not continue fighting.

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March 01, 2022, 11:35:47 PM
 #15

Quite funny how some people have been saying that Putin have planned this for long and he’s prepared for what’s coming, lol, this shows he has no plans at all. I guess he thought that the world relies too much on Russia, but that’s not true from what we are seeing right now, since there will always be alternatives.
I'm not sure but I've read somewhere that in the past several years, they're also about to do the same attack but has been stopped and delayed. But as for the plan, let's say that it's been planned by him, by them. However, they haven't foreseen the economic impact of what they've planned to do. Right now, the sanctions are pulling their economy down and it's really going to be hitting them very badly if they won't stop anytime soon. With what I'm seeing on their stand, it seems that they really aren't going to stop soon unless Ukraine has given them the favors and decisions that Russia is just waiting for.

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March 02, 2022, 12:53:29 AM
 #16

I believed that in the worst case, Russia would intervene in eastern Ukraine and perhaps only expand the occupied territories to create a larger pro-Russian zone - and that this would take several days due to the military strength of the Russian army. Unfortunately, this is no longer a military conflict but an open war aimed at occupying Ukraine, and according to their leader, some other countries will be next in line if they try to join NATO.
That's unlikely, I believe that Putin wants Ukraine to be conquered because he wants the history books to tell that Russia was the origin and not Ukraine even though Ukraine existed far longer than Russia. I hope that the economic sanctions would be enough to make them stop this war.
The EU depends on Russia, especially for gas - but will have to look for an alternative if it wants to be consistent in the sanctions against it. It is a bit hypocritical that it was announced a few days ago that the amount of gas will even be increased towards the EU, which means that the money is going in the opposite direction - on the one hand, we have sanctions, on the other hand, the EU finances Russian military machinery by buying Russian gas.
Not the whole EU, I think that some Scandinavian regions have already adopted towards green energy and slowly distancing themselves from using oil as a source of energy, I've heard of one EU country that have incentivize the ownership of an electric car although I forgot the name of that country but I am sure it's from Europe, and wouldn't some countries in EU be able to get their oil in Middle East or Africa?
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March 02, 2022, 02:11:07 AM
 #17

Both countries will suffer after the war, not just ukraine but also russia will have an economy crisis because of many countries starting to sanctioned russia. In this war conflicts the citizens of both countries will be much more affected.

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March 02, 2022, 03:21:43 AM
 #18

They want to stop Nato from doing something? Well Nato will help Ukraine win the war.
Sorry here I don't think that NATO as an organization will be doing anything on that. In this Ukraine is not a member of NATO and this can't allow NATO to start any fight with Russia. They can protect the NATO state in the area. Ukraine can rely more on EU to help to tighten sanctions against Russia and for the main time EU is already giving out sanctions to Russia and the economy is feeling the impact. The Russian people have been blocked from many financial payment system and that is giving alot of queues in banks. Master and Visa card, Apple are all not giving service to Russia people.
The rate of sanctions being slammed at Russia has led to a serious meltdown of their economy. Going through the news as of recent and I noticed that their currency has even lost much of its value within a very short period, 1 Russian ruble is worth below one cent now.

And yes as you have said, Ukraine won’t be getting any much support from NATO since they are not a member of the organization yet, so they would only be getting supports such as the EU sanctioning the Russia as they are doing right now, and US has also sanctioned them too, which would definitely bring down their economy in so many levels.
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March 02, 2022, 04:04:32 AM
 #19

USDT records new all-time high against Russian ruble as inflation hits

War will always damage the economy of the affected countries, this is the 5th day of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the US, EU and generally the UN have been sanctioning Russia since the start of the Russia - Ukraine war which includes removing Russia from Swift and many other sanctions. Russia's central bank doubled key interest rates on Feb. 28, from 9.5% to 20% and USDT which is pegged to USD which has increased 30% against Russian ruble (RUR) within five days of war. Bitcoin trading volume on crypto exchanges in Ukraine spiked 200%.

This is likely the beginning of the war if it does not cease anytime soon, I am been seeing some people saying the EU needs Russia than Russia needs them, that they depend on crude oil and many mineral resources from Russia, but what is causing the inflation in Russia is because of the Russia - Ukraine war. This could be more severe if the war does not ends soon. With the look of what is going on, Russia has been planing this for years and this has led to some people killed and many left their homes.

Nothing good comes out of war except very damaging aftermath, many infrastructures are being destroyed which on its own is a setback to the economy of the country in question, in addition to sanctions from various political and economic unions which will further damage the economy even more,
Putin is a hothead and I hope he realizes the depth of his action, he can decide to put an end to the war to prevent further destruction.

Russia is not the only crude oil producing country, in this situation, they don't have a choice but to go with other available alternatives.

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March 02, 2022, 04:55:56 AM
 #20

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Both countries will suffer after the war, not just ukraine but also russia will have an economy crisis because of many countries starting to sanctioned russia. In this war conflicts the citizens of both countries will be much more affected.

Infant both Russian and Ukraine,it will take them some years before they can recover from their losses in this war situation that is going on their countries. Just 5 days the war has started, many people has loss their lives and properties  and many companies has packed up because of the war that is affecting their workers and customers in the country. Inflation has started already in the both countries because war is the major thing that cause inflation to humanity. The two countries find it difficult to feed very well over 5 days the war has started between Russian and Ukraine which is seriously causing damages to their economy and education sectors because all schools in those two countries has been closed down few days ago for the safe of the students and staffs in the countries.

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