Bitcoin’s price outlook: a potential bubble?

[Hsibalimrn]

Cryptocurrencies have few metrices available that allow for forecasting, if only because it is rumored that only few cryptocurrency holders own a large portion of available supply. These large holders – referred to as “whales” – are said to make up of two percent of anonymous ownership accounts, whilst owning roughly 92 percent of BTC. On top of this, most people who use cryptocurrency-related services worldwide are retail clients rather than institutional investors. This means outlooks on whether Bitcoin prices will fall or grow are difficult to measure, as movements from one large whale already having a significant impact on this market.

[1714665994]

1714665994

[Dunamisx]

This means outlooks on whether Bitcoin prices will fall or grow are difficult to measure, as movements from one large whale already having a significant impact on this market.

If i can get you correctly you mean that bitcoin whales have a real time impact on the bitcoin market either to go up or down. To me this is not the real and major determinant, lots of factors determines it such as market cap, market vol. demand and supply rates, liquidity pool and the likes. The role of whales is mildly felt on the market to either fall or rise in this regard.

[franky1]

according to silly people. silly things can be said...

but lets deal with this topics sentiment
if you look at the bitcoin rich list

                                                                                 total coins           total % coins
coin per address         addresses   % of addresses         per allotment      per allotment
(0 - 0.00001)             3145471     7.73% (100%)         14.89 BTC           0% (100%)
[0.00001 - 0.0001)     7688153    18.91% (92.27%)     335.80 BTC         0% (100%)
[0.0001 - 0.001)        10265767   25.24% (73.36%)     3,957 BTC          0.02% (100%)
[0.001 - 0.01)            10012480   24.62% (48.12%)    38,049 BTC         0.2% (99.98%)
[0.01 - 0.1)               6204172     15.26% (23.5%)      200,671 BTC       1.06% (99.78%)
[0.1 - 1)                    2532879     6.23% (8.24%)        784,850 BTC       4.14% (98.72%)
[1 - 10)                     671964      1.65% (2.01%)         1,707,922 BTC    9% (94.58%)
[10 - 100)                 130095      0.32% (0.36%)         4,253,747 BTC    22.43% (85.58%)
[100 - 1,000)             13638       0.03% (0.04%)         3,894,554 BTC    20.53% (63.15%)
[1,000 - 10,000)        2041         0.01% (0.01%)         5,270,202 BTC    27.78% (42.62%)
[10,000 - 100,000)    80             0% (0%)                  2,149,201 BTC    11.33% (14.83%)
[100,000 - 1,000,000)4              0% (0%)                  664,320 BTC       3.5% (3.5%)



it appears that 84 top addresses has 2.6mill (18.33%) of coin
but this is not 84 PEOPLE out of 40million
its 84 addresses out of 40mil addresses
where by those 84addresses themselves represent millions of customers using an exchange as custody
infact these 84 addresses are exchange coldwallets
infact most of these addresses are majority exchange hotwallets where each address
represents more then 1 person

as for the 21million addresses that combined have just 4.3k (0.02%) of coins
again these are not 21million people. its 21mill addresses
where by those 21mill addresses maybe several addresses owned by single people. not 1 address per person and not several people per address

topic creators "2% own 92%" is a fudged number that currently today sits at "2.01% of 94.58%" but is not 2% of PEOPLE
its 2% of addresses(or as he says 'accounts') but those 2% of addresses represent MILLIONS of people using custodial services
where by addresses do not equal number of customer accounts

fun fact
                                                                                 total coins           total % coins
coin per address         addresses   % of addresses         per allotment      per allotment
[10 - 100)                 130095      0.32% (0.36%)         4,253,747 BTC    22.43% (85.58%)

did you know that there is one known person that owns over 1million btc of this 4.25million allotment. where by he has lots of 50btc coins spread over many thousands of addresses. his name is satoshi. he is the biggest sole owner whale of all...
custodian services are not whales. they are fisherman. capturing lots of whales and sharks and minnows

anyway.. as for predicting things..
the only thing you can predict is this
when the is a bubble (large 2x-3x) sudden rise in a short period that cant be explained by any sustainable hashrate cost increase.. then expect those looking to profit to take that opportunity and sell at the rise. meaning expect all sudden and large rises to correct back down

[Wiwo]

Let's say we have a percentage of wallet users who constantly move the money to and fro as pos or exchanges and the other set of people are just holders who handily move they coins and the percentage of people make up the whales, one of the factors that affect the price of a commodity is the level of demand of such commodity. I feel traders make up a large percentage of the outcome of the market price because most of the institutional holders handily move their coins around. Exchange services and outlets are the major Shakers of the market, not the whales.

[TeslaWatt.com]

As we have seen BTC skyrocketing past $41k per token as trading volumes between the Russian ruble and BTC jump to a nine-month high, what do you expect to happen as soon as currency markets stabilize after the initial shock?

[franky1]

one of the factors that affect the price of a commodity is the level of demand of such commodity.

a commodity is a raw material used to make other products.
gold sits on 2 markets. commodity because of its material features. and asset because of its investment features
bitcoin is only an asset. but shares the same investment features as gold

I feel traders make up a large percentage of the outcome of the market price because most of the institutional holders handily move their coins around. Exchange services and outlets are the major Shakers of the market, not the whales.

traders are the shakers of a market.
a market price is only set/changed by only those in the market making orders. holders/hoarders do not affect the price at all because they are not trading to make market order to affect the price.
coins being moved around addresses (circulating the network) are not even part of the 'supply' of the market
neither are the institutional holders just using coin in custody as a savings account
the only market shakers are those with coin active on market orderbook

as for demand
if say in 2012 an average buyer only wants to buy in $600 a month. he in 2012 would get 100coins. even if there are only 10.5mill coins in circulation
if say in 2022 an average buyer only wants to buy in $600 a month. he in 2022 would get 0.015coins. even if there are 19mill coins in circulation

in this instance the demand is the same. the circulation supply has grown. but the market orderbook supply is now smaller supply per orderline

what you find is most traders only do orders for amounts that average ~$600 because orders of over $1k usually pop a red flag of limits that generate reports.
yep its the tax office criteria of red flagging trades of certain amounts that actually cause more of an impact to how much 'demand' a market order row has.