Can current sanctions Ruble inflation stop Russia?

[Synchronice]

Read the whole post because I don't discuss only about paper money!

It seems that almost the whole world decided to isolate itself from Russia while the economics of Russia is connected with the western world and if we keep in mind its GDP and other factors, then the cons will terribly hit them.

It's expected by some economic experts that SWIFT ban will cause:
1. Up to 10% recession.
2. Up to 50% decline in export.
3. Inflation of Rubble.

The Rubble lost more than 30% of it's value in recent days.
Officially Russia’s Ministry of Finance has ordered businesses that trade abroad to sell 80% of their foreign currency earnings and convert them to rubles.
You may notice at streets that some banks and currency exchange services offer very different rates on buy/sell orders. You have to sell X Rubble to buy 1 USD but when you sell 1 USD, you get half of X.

Ukraine also asks crypto exchanges to ban people from the Russian Federation and there is a chance (slight to my mind) that this will happen.

It looks like, Russia will be left majorly with only Rubble. Paper money has no value if no one wants it, doesn't matter how big reserves you have. Once valid and useful money reserves can turn into totally unuseful papers because none country wants to trade with you with it. And locally Russia isn't a strong country, they can't produce computers, smartphones, high-quality technics. They will have to say no to a comfortable life.

But can that stop Russia? During world wars, they survived with water, vodka and bread.

[KennyR]

With 2% of the global population Russia holds 12-14% of the total cryptocurrency in circulation. This is huge and this means one out of ten bitcoin is owned by Russians. There is continued sanctions from the Western Nations, but Russia is looking for the other way. With the ongoing scenario Russia isn't able to accumulate bitcoin. If this holding goes something above 20% this will turn to be a national security issue. To withstand the situation more ways have been worked out to stop ruble inflation, but looks like nothing gives hand.

[adaseb]

With 2% of the global population Russia holds 12-14% of the total cryptocurrency in circulation. This is huge and this means one out of ten bitcoin is owned by Russians. There is continued sanctions from the Western Nations, but Russia is looking for the other way. With the ongoing scenario Russia isn't able to accumulate bitcoin. If this holding goes something above 20% this will turn to be a national security issue. To withstand the situation more ways have been worked out to stop ruble inflation, but looks like nothing gives hand.

Yes I remember when that report came out and I don’t think it’s actually that high. I think they are over estimating that figure and they didn’t even provide proof that they owned that much. Either way I do think they own large amounts of crypto however.

Before all this started they were pro Bitcoin this and pro Bitcoin that. So most likely they bought it well in advance knowing they would need it in times of sanctions.

Bitcoin rallied almost 20% today and many think it’s because the Russians are selling Rubles to buy Bitcoin. However it’s hard to see if this is true because there is no data to back it up.

[cabron]

It will affect Russia as much as it will affect the West and Europe as trading partners. Bitcoin being rushed to be legalized in Russia I think has been in Putin's mind for years, it must be true that they have lots of crypto considering Russians were the first devs such as Vitalik and Sasha.

China has a fine line to walk while they support Russia when it comes to trades, they also don't want anything that will disrupt the trades in all parts of the world.  Both Russia and China might work together using Digital Yuan only. There is no way China will support the sanctions, they know who needs who.

[Kakmakr]

The question is.... How long will the Russian people support a government (Putin) ..if their living standard are severely affected by these sanctions. I have already seen mayor social media platforms blocking "Russian" media from using their services, so they are feeling it in their pockets.  

The sanctions are not just targeted at Putin and his government, it is targeted at the citizens and services that support them. You already see people on social media that are getting very hostile against Russian streamers and Russian content. (Those who were able to bypass the restrictions that were placed on Twitter / Facebook / TikTok by the Russian government)

Will it stop Putin?..... No, it will not stop him ...he is a dictator and he will use force to stay in power or he will destroy everything around him.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

But can that stop Russia? During world wars, they survived with water, vodka and bread.

OK, so what are you asking here exactly?  If the question is whether any sanctions imposed by the rest of the globe will deter Russia (Putin specifically, is what it seems like) from its aggression towards Ukraine, I'd have to say no.  I can't imagine Putin wouldn't have realized how unpopular this move of his would be with the UN, and yet he went ahead with his plans anyway.  Someone please argue against that if you think I'm wrong, because I don't fully understand what's going on over there.  Never have.

There are a lot of bitcoiners in Russia, and obviously we've all seen its value shoot up in the past day or two.  I wonder how much the price rise has to do with the conflict, i.e., if Russians or Ukrainians are buying it as a hedge against any currency devaluation that might happen--Russians more so than anyone else, I would think.  Or it could be a coincidence....but I doubt it.

The question is.... How long will the Russian people support a government (Putin) ..if their living standard are severely affected by these sanctions.

I'm not Russian, but I grew up in the later years of the Cold War and Russians back then were living under a repressive regime and had been for many years.  Your question is valid, but it's also valid for countries like N. Korea.  My response would be that people can and do live with governments that treat them like shit all the time.  I don't know where the breaking point is for Russians, but I am hoping there's some sort of rebellion in the works.  I don't know what else will stop this madness.

[hatshepsut93]

One of the goals of sanctions is to weaken Russian military, so in the long run it could force Russia to stop this war. But this process could take years, like the Afghan war.

[Synchronice]

But can that stop Russia? During world wars, they survived with water, vodka and bread.

OK, so what are you asking here exactly?  If the question is whether any sanctions imposed by the rest of the globe will deter Russia (Putin specifically, is what it seems like) from its aggression towards Ukraine, I'd have to say no.  I can't imagine Putin wouldn't have realized how unpopular this move of his would be with the UN, and yet he went ahead with his plans anyway.  Someone please argue against that if you think I'm wrong, because I don't fully understand what's going on over there.  Never have.

Okay, I'll be clear!

The only developed area in Russia is a city called Moscow and probably St. Peterburg. Other than that, there is no normal life in Russia and I can confirm that myself after spending some time here. There is a widely accepted opinion that Russians will do everything if you give them vodka and some meal. I have seen myself how some people in Moscow were living by drinking Vodka and eating a very cheap meal called Doshirak.
Yeah, I am serious, I am afraid, the majority of the population can't be stopped by these sanctions if they support their president Putin because they didn't have comfortable life before and beggary is a normal thing for them and even comfort zone if you give them Vodka.

Russia is a western analog of North Korea, with some more freedom and openness.

One of the goals of sanctions is to weaken Russian military, so in the long run it could force Russia to stop this war. But this process could take years, like the Afghan war.

Russia has an arsenal of nuclear weapons. Do you really think that Putin hasn't thought about that? This man can easily go on nuclear war.
Hey, there are two scenarios for Putin:
1. He stops war and his reputation falls in Russia, which means his career and life will end, Russia will be a very poor country after sanctions and they will no longer be considered as a strong country, no longer in any way.
2. He goes full force, Ukraine & US/EU give up and war ends. But Putin will make everyone do what he and Russia want because the whole world is afraid of them and at the same time whole world can do nothing against them.
3. Russia goes full force, including nuclear war. Ukraine, US and EU go full force and the whole world ends up there.

Sanctions doesn't need years in this case, military, people, everything needs money to keep. Almost whole world stopped trading with them, it's a big shot even in a short time frame. There is a panic in Russia and Rubble is losing value. Russia loses any way! If they stop, everything ends for them and if they don't stop, everything ends for the world.

[Leviathan.007]

I don't this it can because as far as I know Russia was saving a huge amount of gold to back their own fiat currency so they still have so much savings its look like they are actually waiting for the economic sanctions to happen and they are not surprised about that the sanctions can be effective and stop then when the sanctions are pointing to all the ways the trades but currency they can have trade with many other countries like China which is another strong economic power in the power hand since sanctioning crypto and bitcoin is is kinda impossible to be done they can use these payment systems for their international deals, generally I leave when Putin started he knew the sanctions will happen and he was ready for it before it happens to them.

[The Cryptovator]

The sanctions won't make weak Russia quickly. I am pretty sure Putin knew very well the sanctions will come when he will begin the war. So I think he already thinks of some alternatives for that though we don't know what is that. Rubble value dropped because of more cash out and panic. Citizens need safety if the situation becomes more worst. That's the reason citizens withdraw Rubble from the Bank and ATM. Russia would create an alternative to SWIFT, he would create new things with his supportive countries or choose cryptocurrency. And I don't think exchanges will ban Russians from using them. They will lose revenue and users will be in fear. Because any country would be in this situation in near future. So banning citizens from trading wouldn't be helpful to prevent Putin. They have the capability of creating such exchanges.

[avikz]

We can already see the effect of the western countries on Russia. But considering the fact that Russia supplies almost 30% of Europe's natural gas, it won't be easy to break them. Also you will have to consider that Russia is a big exporter of weapons. So no matter whatever sanctions are imposed on them, Russia will find its way out! May not be quick but definitely possible in long term.

A war is unacceptable in 21st century but there are some open questions,

1. Why NATO is interested in including Ukraine into their alliance where Ukraine doesn't meet the eligibility criteria?
2. Wht Ukraine suddenly started demanding 3 billion dollar as rent to gas pipelines going through their country?
3. Why Ukraine suddenly became interested in becoming a EU member after Russia started invading their country?

We are only seeing the one side of the coin. We need to see the other side as well.

[Ahmani O makyla]

Finance ministers and central bank governors from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States held a virtual meeting with Ukraine's Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said it was about maximum isolation of Russia at all levels and having maximum sanctions capacity, which he said included cryptocurrencies.

[Gyfts]

It won't stop Russia, it will only make Putin more desperate which means more Ukrainian civilians will die. Sanctions don't target government, they target the people the government are supposed to represent. Russia's economy wasn't in great shape before so he really can't afford to start a war with Ukraine and not finish it, he's too far committed. Sanctions will go on and hurt both the Russian and Western economy while the war lasts a decade plus.

[gantez]

Sanctions will go on and hurt both the Russian and Western economy while the war lasts a decade plus.

Na I doubt this is going to take longer than soon because Putin is already taking over the region of Ukraine. 10 years is a decade and the war doesn't have to get to that. The situation of the war may come to an end if they find a spot of settlement in Belarus. NATO countries too are making sure that things come to normal in Ukraine.

[Cling18]

One of the goals of sanctions is to weaken the Russian military, so in the long run, it could force Russia to stop this war. But this process could take years, as the Afghan war.

Puttin is truly decided to invade Ukraine and the current sanctions might worsen the conflict between these two countries. However, sanctions could affect Russia but it will take time because they have independent economy which is strong enough to resist these sanctions. I'm sure that Russia has reserved so much as a preparation for this war.

[istiak2277]

Sanction from the west is not new for Russia. Their economy survived these type of sanctions before. Russia officials said that they have built a system for these type of situation. They even prepared for SWIFT banning and announce that a system will be triggered if west ban Russia from SWIFT. They knew there will be a clash with the west so they planed everything accordingly.

[Japinat]

Russia made their decision knowing the consequences already, therefore I expect them to fully understand what they are doing and they know they can survive despite the sanctions. I just know from the post above that Russia at least owns 10% of the total bitcoin circulation in the market, therefore it's a huge advantage for them because their fiat might inflate in value but bitcoin could be one of their life savers.

[kryptqnick]

But can that stop Russia? During world wars, they survived with water, vodka and bread.

All that stuff can cripple it, but it can't stop it, of course. That's why sanctions aren't enough, even though a big economic hit isn't nothing. But focusing on sanctions and economy, it can help make the war shorter in a few ways:
- Russia running out of weapons and out of money to buy them and to continue the war
- regular people in Russia taking a huge hit on their budgets as well as on what they can afford (and it's not North Korea, people in Russia are very used to Western goods and services!), and this incites protests, strikes etc, so Russia has to pull its forces out of the war against Ukraine because it needs to deal with the civil war
- Russian businesses and oligarchs taking a hit, and using the influence and resources at their possessions to put internal political pressure to stop the war

Sanction from the west is not new for Russia. Their economy survived these type of sanctions before. Russia officials said that they have built a system for these type of situation. They even prepared for SWIFT banning and announce that a system will be triggered if west ban Russia from SWIFT. They knew there will be a clash with the west so they planed everything accordingly.

They have never faced similar sanctions, actually. Also, there's a good video of another country that had propaganda that it's very strong and can deal with any Western sanctions, and that the West is hit harder by them than this country. That country's name is Soviet Union.

[uneng]

Despite sanctions, Russia still has powerful allies who can support them economically. Besides that, crypto universe if free for all, and russians can always rely on it to protect their money against ruble devaluation.

If those sanctions really work as expected, they are going to work on long run only, what means Putin still has a lot of time to create strategies to avoid the negative consequences of the western economical measures.

And actually, don't you think some people who are blaming and cancelling Russia right now wouldn't trade with them in secret, behind the curtains, if possible?

[jc12345]

In the end this will come down to who can last the longest, hunger and famine in Russia or the energy shortages in the West. The economic sanctions will cause unprecedented hardships in Russia and energy prices in the West is going to skyrocket. You mention that Russia has survived previously on Vodka and bread, but even that can only go so far. A lot of the Russian hard currency has been frozen so it cannot be used by Russia. All being equal, Russia will not be able to sustain the war if the resistance continue and by the looks of things Ukraine is putting up a lot of resistance. At some point something has got to give and one of the pillars that would give in is the Russian economy. Another factor that is going to impact a lot is that VISA, Master Card and American Express ahs stopped operating in Russia, and I am not even referring to SWIFT. This basically means that the population's cards will not work and people will have to stand in lines at the banks to withdraw cash to buy food.