An advice for newbies and plebs

[Etranger]

Simply stop day-trading, or any more active form of trading. Preserve your capital and wait for the market to be in the same situation like 2020 again, when investors were excited to throw their money in crypto. The market narrative has changed, people are not as excited. The market has always followed a bull - bear cycle. Save your money, and wait for the next opportunity.

2022 - It might be a bear market.
2023 - It might be the next opportunity to buy the Bitcoin DIP.
2024 - It might be the new BULL MARKET.

I think it all depends on which strategy is best for a particular person. Your option is more like investing than trading. I agree that it is often more profitable, but this can only be found out after a fairly long period of time. Whereas trading, even in the medium term, within weeks or months, yields faster results (of course, the risks also increase). Therefore, for many people, this option is a more "visual" proof that their method works and gives a faster result.

[Wind_FURY]

Simply stop day-trading, or any more active form of trading. Preserve your capital and wait for the market to be in the same situation like 2020 again, when investors were excited to throw their money in crypto. The market narrative has changed, people are not as excited. The market has always followed a bull - bear cycle. Save your money, and wait for the next opportunity.

2022 - It might be a bear market.
2023 - It might be the next opportunity to buy the Bitcoin DIP.
2024 - It might be the new BULL MARKET.

[n]Do you have any calculations or graphic analyzes that prove what you are trying to say here[/b]? I don't know, but many are still optimistic about 100K USD before the end of this year, and given the current situation, we still have promises of good volatility.

Personally, I see the best opportunity to buy when no one wants to invest, fear prevails, and everyone starts to worry about the price, then it will be a perfect opportunity to buy and sell.

So far we have not seen a correction of 80% and therefore it is difficult to rely on historical data.

No I don't have any "expert" calculations, and "expert" graphic analysis to prove anything. I merely have a pleb's guess based on Bitcoin's market cycles from 2012, which I believe are the same as the "expert" calculations made by the "expert analysts"in the forum.

[Ziskinberg]

Imagine if you were in 2017 now, where it was $3k to $20k in BTC price. If you knew that the price of BTC would exceed that, meaning it would reach the current price now, $39k~$42k, wouldn't you want to buy more? The best way is to accumulate more and more BTC regardless of price. This only works if you believe with BTC or whatever asset you will HODL.

That is very unfortunate that we never know and this implies no one who invests in Bitcoin and holds it forever because of thinking it reach $$$ like to say $100k. And this is the reason why every time the market went down, they are selling off, not even to think about buying.

No one knows what would happen, but it's better to believe in one thing than nothing.

Maybe it was because we realize that Bitcoin will grow and have a brighter future. People have been encouraged to hold for we think about a huge profit in the future.

[TheGreatPython]

2022 - It might be a bear market.
2023 - It might be the next opportunity to buy the Bitcoin DIP.
2024 - It might be the new BULL MARKET.

I just wanted to start from 2021,

2021 - It was not a stronger bullish year as expected like 2017 or 2013 hence we need to change our view on upcoming years.

2022- Might be a bearish year only if we would have had stronger bullish in 2021. We had moderate bulls in 2021 hence 2022 might be having a sideways market or continuation of bullish trend from 2021.

2023 - Will be based on 2022. Can be bearish if we have a new ATH in 2022. Otherwise sideways market possible.

2024 -  Another halving year. Hence, sideways to moderate bullish toward the ATH of 2021 (or 2022).

2025 -  Another highly expected year with full of bullish (if we get $100 in 2022, then 2025 will be the year of hitting $1M levels).

[Sterbens]

Or maybe you can always provide 2 asset options in stable coins and in crypto (if it is already bought at the highest price). Usually beginners are prone to entering when the hype is rising and then being carried away by the current so that they don't pay attention to prices that don't come back. First, let the assets that have been purchased and have not had time to CL, then the second thing is to provide stable coins to take part when the market has really corrected itself.

[justdimin]

I don't have any "expert" calculations, and "expert" graphic analysis to prove anything. I merely have a pleb's guess based on Bitcoin's market cycles from 2012, which I believe are the same as the "expert" calculations made by the "expert analysts"in the forum.

Because, there is no expert that could predict these things with precision. I mean it is quite understandable to expect what you are expecting because that is how it has been in cycles. Could it break that cycle and suddenly be 150k this year, 30k next year and 250k the year after that instead of yours? Why not? There is no technically impossible way for it, it is always possible.

However, if people are expecting what it has done so far to repeat again, then that is exactly what you suggested and it should not be that weird. I personally like to do what you do, and wait for a longer term as well which allows me to gather as much crypto as I can before the increase.

[TheUltraElite]

I have observed that going at long ranges keeps one safe and profitable. Like if I bought at 35k and sold at 45k, I am at profit, but did this thought come to every other trader out there? Maybe no. Otherwise everyone would be profiting and we would not see threads that say the same.

Instead of this safer and profitable method, some users have to go with day-trading. They can put off the risk and want to rather bask in the risk. These people will get burnt and they will not change even after reading this thread. In fact, it is good that they dont change so the ones who can get profit can get it easily and keep quiet while they go on raging on exchange trollboxes

Those who have nerves of steel will always survive, making profit from trading is not for the other group.

[Reid]

Are new investors patient enough to wait that long? I doubt that. That's why they are mostly in the meme section.
They are mostly in a hurry to make that big profit like they are being chased by whoever they took the loan from. Banks or their friend.
I like the idea of that long term thing but there could be changes in the strategy midway or even as early as possible if the bull market starts showing.
Selling to accumulate more.

[stomachgrowls]

Are new investors patient enough to wait that long? I doubt that. That's why they are mostly in the meme section.
They are mostly in a hurry to make that big profit like they are being chased by whoever they took the loan from. Banks or their friend.
I like the idea of that long term thing but there could be changes in the strategy midway or even as early as possible if the bull market starts showing.
Selling to accumulate more.

People are entirely different when it comes to various things from the way they do think until into their own personal perception and views towards things and on how they would make out some approach

to it thats why you couldnt really stop people on making out step even though it doesnt agree on our own principle and just giving out some advices isnt bad whether these fella's would
would tend to follow or would basically be still be going on what they do have in mind on the first place.

[Etranger]

Are new investors patient enough to wait that long? I doubt that. That's why they are mostly in the meme section.
They are mostly in a hurry to make that big profit like they are being chased by whoever they took the loan from. Banks or their friend.
I like the idea of that long term thing but there could be changes in the strategy midway or even as early as possible if the bull market starts showing.
Selling to accumulate more.

I doubt that patience is what you can attribute only to new investors. There are a lot of experienced ones, who are not patient at all, who are in rush for fast profits. In my opinion, a lot of newbies on the contrary, tend to listen to advice of those who have been in the market for a long time. They are new to this, whey are often mere afraid to loose money, because not everyone can recover after losses. That is why they tend to invest more accurately and safely, thinking about having some guaranties, even if the profit is smaller.

[LastKiss]

Are new investors patient enough to wait that long? I doubt that. That's why they are mostly in the meme section.
They are mostly in a hurry to make that big profit like they are being chased by whoever they took the loan from. Banks or their friend.
I like the idea of that long term thing but there could be changes in the strategy midway or even as early as possible if the bull market starts showing.
Selling to accumulate more.

I can't say every new investor doesn't have the patience to wait that long because one of my friends just invested a lot using his cold money to BNB one month ago and he said he will hold it for around five years. But yeah most of them just want quick profit or quick big return, I have a brother who wants to learn how to trade but when I ask him why he want to trade he answered me because he want to earn quickly in a month. In the end, I won't guide him from trading because of his bad reason.

[Taskford]

Are new investors patient enough to wait that long? I doubt that. That's why they are mostly in the meme section.
They are mostly in a hurry to make that big profit like they are being chased by whoever they took the loan from. Banks or their friend.
I like the idea of that long term thing but there could be changes in the strategy midway or even as early as possible if the bull market starts showing.
Selling to accumulate more.

I can't say every new investor doesn't have the patience to wait that long because one of my friends just invested a lot using his cold money to BNB one month ago and he said he will hold it for around five years. But yeah most of them just want quick profit or quick big return, I have a brother who wants to learn how to trade but when I ask him why he want to trade he answered me because he want to earn quickly in a month. In the end, I won't guide him from trading because of his bad reason.

If we base it on our own experience as a new trader we cannot really say that we can wait for long especially when we see the market is having a bad run which affect the whole cryptocurrency and for sure we will also get drag by the emotions spreading on the market. But if we experience the major high and lows then most provably we can take those challenges then can able to wait for our set timeframe for our investment son some coins out there.

[henmark]

I doubt that patience is what you can attribute only to new investors. There are a lot of experienced ones, who are not patient at all, who are in rush for fast profits. In my opinion, a lot of newbies on the contrary, tend to listen to advice of those who have been in the market for a long time. They are new to this, whey are often mere afraid to loose money, because not everyone can recover after losses. That is why they tend to invest more accurately and safely, thinking about having some guaranties, even if the profit is smaller.

I would guess that there are more newbies who end up making bad decisions based on emotional trading versus the number on veterans. Doesn't mean that patience is something only lacking in newbies, but it is certainly a higher percentage in newbies than in veterans.

You do not have to always explain yourself in a sense on what the difference is each time, just generalization because you are just posting it on bitcointalk is fine. Veterans know that even though there is a chance of getting rich overnight, the bigger play is long term and you could make more money in crypto than anywhere else and get richer. That is the key point here as well.

[fuguebtc]

snip

[n]Do you have any calculations or graphic analyzes that prove what you are trying to say here[/b]? I don't know, but many are still optimistic about 100K USD before the end of this year, and given the current situation, we still have promises of good volatility.

Personally, I see the best opportunity to buy when no one wants to invest, fear prevails, and everyone starts to worry about the price, then it will be a perfect opportunity to buy and sell.

So far we have not seen a correction of 80% and therefore it is difficult to rely on historical data.

No I don't have any "expert" calculations, and "expert" graphic analysis to prove anything. I merely have a pleb's guess based on Bitcoin's market cycles from 2012, which I believe are the same as the "expert" calculations made by the "expert analysts"in the forum.

Everyone will have their own opinion, no one is the same and this is your prediction. But what's different here is that bitcoin's past is different from its present. In 2017, most investors in bitcoin were retail traders like us. In 2021, bitcoin is invested by organizations and billionaires, becomes a payment method of many companies, is legally recognized in many countries, even legal tender.
This has not happened in the past, so it is highly unlikely that we will ever return to the long-term bearish of the market. But nothing is impossible.

[adaseb]

I don’t think anyone got rich buying Bitcoin last cycle. Let’s say they bought at $19.5K because they were anticipating a break out from the old $20K ATH. Unless they sold at 3x where they would of made 200% it’s not going to make anyone a millionaire.

Last cycle was all about the Defi, airdrops, NFTs, Meta, etc. Those were the real money makers. There were some many airdrops, many in the 4-5 figures that they were pretty much giving money away. Bitcoin never gave that. The time when Bitcoin made millionaires was during 2016-2017 before it broke $1K ATH.

[traderethereum]

Anyway, I agree with @OP's suggestion to save money and wait for the next opportunity because if we keep trying to day trade or something else, while we don't have better skills, we will find it hard to make a profit.
But it is a free choice for everyone, especially beginners who want to keep a feel for trading in today's times but still be careful because the market is constantly changing and volatile.
If you decide to keep trading, don't spend too much money if you're unsure of the move and avoid hoping to make a big profit if the market doesn't look like it's moving upwards.

[tbterryboy]

Some simple and very basic tips I can give to newbie traders are:

1- Don't fall for the hype and don't panic for NO reason
2- Don't invest in memes and if you do, make sure to cash them asap
3-Avoid following the so-called Influencers, everyone is paid!

Another very important thing is, around the halving time, the price will normally go upwards. So what you can do is, buy some good amount of BTC right before halving and then sell it after the price has pumped.

[Inspiron14]

Some simple and very basic tips I can give to newbie traders are:

1- Don't fall for the hype and don't panic for NO reason
2- Don't invest in memes and if you do, make sure to cash them asap
3-Avoid following the so-called Influencers, everyone is paid!

Another very important thing is, around the halving time, the price will normally go upwards. So what you can do is, buy some good amount of BTC right before halving and then sell it after the price has pumped.

Yes I quite agree with the tips you gave and the most important thing for newbie traders is that they need to understand first about trading,
because with the lack of experience it is too risky to start trading and there is much to learn,
Besides that, finding the right strategy for yourself is also important

[FairUser]

Simply stop day-trading, or any more active form of trading. Preserve your capital and wait for the market to be in the same situation like 2020 again, when investors were excited to throw their money in crypto. The market narrative has changed, people are not as excited. The market has always followed a bull - bear cycle. Save your money, and wait for the next opportunity.

2022 - It might be a bear market.
2023 - It might be the next opportunity to buy the Bitcoin DIP.
2024 - It might be the new BULL MARKET.

Simply suitable for a newbie

Perhaps each of us has our own approaches, I am not a savvy person in this market, and I know that predictions are relative and we all have arguments for what we do when we search. I like DCA to increase the number of cryptos and then there will come a time when it will be necessary to rotate them with other assets. It will be more beneficial to keep abreast of market movements.

[Mpamaegbu]

2022 - It might be a bear market.

Your choice of expression in, "Might be" is accurately suggestive of the truism that in cryptos there's nothing certain. Everything is based on speculation. I, for one, believe that Bitcoin will remain bearish in this first quarters of 2022. After this quarter, I expect it to resurge and go on a high once again. Then we repeat the circle as we have had in the past circles towards the end for the year. However, let me quickly point out here that times and tides have changed as we've seen a lot of mix in the industry. Institutions and whales putting their money in Bitcoin. Even this ongoing Russia/Ukraine war can trigger a different dynamics, either in favour of Bitcoin or against it. Personally, I expect it to be in favour of Bitcoin; knowing how both countries have favoured it before going into this senseless war.