Bitcoin and Ukraine war

[Daryl_Dixon]

The bitcoin market has also been affected by growing concerns about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
But Bitcoin has been falling in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at around $ 37,794.
But the oil situation is quite the opposite. Just look at the price of oil and realize that this war has had a huge impact on the price of oil and safe-haven assets like gold.



But what is the reason for this?

In my opinion, because of the war, most people avoid high-risk assets such as bitcoin and other digital currencies!
+How many wars have Bitcoin experienced so far?
-Nothing
So it is natural that most people, because they do not know the reaction of bitcoin, turn to other assets such as gold and oil. The escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will also cause more fear among investors.

[TheNineClub]

Bitcoin (and crypto in general) does not exist in a bubble and is therefore subjected to the ever-changing situations in the economy. In a war situation (especially like this one where a threat of a wider scale conflict is greater) people tend to revert to assets that are easily attainable and easily swapped for things that might be needed like FIAT or gold. In economies where there is not much you can do with crypto besides converting it into FIAT people get worried that their crypto assets will become worthless if they can't get to them (same goes for FIAT held in banks, that's why people are lining up to ATM machines in Russia). Also, in an investment sense, people that are fearing global economic collapse caused by war are really not eager to invest.

[Pmalek]

Russia produces a lot of oil. But because of the war, there are problems with the supply. Russia is being sanctioned by the whole world. There are even reports of Russian ships carrying oil being banned from entering certain ports. The result is less oil on the market but no shortage in demand. Therefore the price of the available reserves are going up.

[PrivacyG]

Russia produces a lot of oil. But because of the war, there are problems with the supply. Russia is being sanctioned by the whole world. There are even reports of Russian ships carrying oil being banned from entering certain ports. The result is less oil on the market but no shortage in demand. Therefore the price of the available reserves are going up.

Maybe it is also that traders are selling Cryptocurrencies to quickly get into Oil investments?  Since Bitcoin's latest drops seem to be in a somewhat correlation with positive Oil changes, it may be a trendy move?

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

[KaliLinux]

The bitcoin market has also been affected by growing concerns about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
But Bitcoin has been falling in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at around $ 37,794.
But the oil situation is quite the opposite. Just look at the price of oil and realize that this war has had a huge impact on the price of oil and safe-haven assets like gold.



But what is the reason for this?

In my opinion, because of the war, most people avoid high-risk assets such as bitcoin and other digital currencies!
+How many wars have Bitcoin experienced so far?
-Nothing
So it is natural that most people, because they do not know the reaction of bitcoin, turn to other assets such as gold and oil. The escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will also cause more fear among investors.

First of all, I will say that Bitcoin is not the same as oil in the sense that, oil is consumed differently than Bitcoin and this is global which is not the same with Bitcoin hence the reason while you will see the price hike like you see because Russia is a major producer and exporter of oil.

Secondly, I don't think that this Russian Invasion of Ukraine is really affecting the price of Bitcoin as most are saying. Please take time to look at the price in a bigger time frame instead of hourly or minutes.

From the SS, since Russia Invaded Ukrain on the 24 Feb 2022, which is highlighted in Yellow square, Can you really see any warlike significant price difference from the past days/weeks before Feb 24 Invasion days to today? Square highlight in green.
Bitcoins price came up to 45K+ around Feb 10, 2022, and did the same on March 02, 2022, so again, is there any significant change as with the war effect?

Now, that is the effect of war on price

[sou-kou]

I think now is a good time to increase the position. Russia is already much stronger than Ukraine, and it is not far from the peaceful manhole cover. The opportunity is slowly emerging, and the rising balance is tilting.

[Lucius]

The bitcoin market has also been affected by growing concerns about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
But Bitcoin has been falling in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at around $ 37,794.

While people think there should always be a reason why the price of Bitcoin rises or falls, then it would be good to learn to look just a little back and try to explain why the same things happen even when there is no war or any significant negative or positive news? A topic was recently launched in which one member wondered why the price of BTC was rising during the war, and I offered him this answer.

If we look at how the price of BTC has been moving since the beginning of the year, we have at least two sharp falls before this one which is happening now. None of them have anything to do with the war because it didn't exist then, but it also has more than obviously something to do with market manipulation, because someone very successfully regulates the price between $35k and $45 and undoubtedly makes a profit.

But what is the reason for this?
In my opinion, because of the war, most people avoid high-risk assets such as bitcoin and other digital currencies!

Until just a few days ago, all the media said that the crypto market in Ukraine and Russia had exploded and that everyone was buying Bitcoin, and that because of that the price was going up. I wonder what has changed in just a few days - although the answer is more than clear, someone has fallen into the bull trap again, for the third time this year.

[tomahawk9]

But what is the reason for this?

In my opinion, because of the war, most people avoid high-risk assets such as bitcoin and other digital currencies!
+How many wars have Bitcoin experienced so far?
-Nothing
So it is natural that most people, because they do not know the reaction of bitcoin, turn to other assets such as gold and oil. The escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will also cause more fear among investors.

As @Pmalek said above, Russia is a big player in the crude oil market, they are the 2nd largest crude-oil exporter in the world. If one the biggest players in a global market is on its way out of the market because of sanctions, demand of this global commodity will naturally go up. Look at Natural Gas and Wheat prices, exact same story as the crude oil because of Russia and the sanctions.

Maybe it is also that traders are selling Cryptocurrencies to quickly get into Oil investments?

a smart trader doesn't go jumping around from one asset to another asset selling them left and right because of price crashes or sudden spikes.

[darkangel11]

Secondly, I don't think that this Russian Invasion of Ukraine is really affecting the price of Bitcoin as most are saying. Please take time to look at the price in a bigger time frame instead of hourly or minutes.

It is affecting it in daily moves and volume, but not if you look at the last 3 months as a whole. What is affecting it more is anti inflation policies of various countries (mainly the US) that make the stocks fall. Stock traders balance their portfolios by selling the assets they consider most risky which are cryptocurrencies and this creates some bearish sentiment on the market.
The invasion is also creating some risk for the markets because the price fell when Russians attacked a nuclear power plant. People are afraid of a nuclear catastrophe and such event would be a big hit for all financial markets.

[PrivacyG]

a smart trader doesn't go jumping around from one asset to another asset selling them left and right because of price crashes or sudden spikes.

I definitely agree.  But look at Shiba, Dogecoin and GameStop for a minute.  See what NFT's did.  With enough sheep, you can move a freaking mountain.  Apparently even if it's made of crap.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

[pooya87]

But the oil situation is quite the opposite. Just look at the price of oil and realize that this war has had a huge impact on the price of oil and safe-haven assets like gold.
But what is the reason for this?
In my opinion, because of the war, most people avoid high-risk assets such as bitcoin and other digital currencies!

I don't think so.
The situation with oil is so much more complicated than that, same with natural gases both of which are rising fast. It is mainly because of the supply shortage while the demand is still high and slightly increasing too.

+How many wars have Bitcoin experienced so far?
-Nothing

Wrong. There has been many wars in the past 13 years that bitcoin has been around, some of which were so much bigger than the Ukraine conflict and involved a lot more countries. In fact the war in Syria for example is referred to world war sometimes as it involved about 80 countries.

So it is natural that most people, because they do not know the reaction of bitcoin, turn to other assets such as gold and oil.

I already explained oil situation and for gold you should have looked at the charts before making a statement. Gold got dumped when Russian operation began.

[dkbit98]

+How many wars have Bitcoin experienced so far?
-Nothing

Wrong. There are many wars happening around the world all the time, just start counting ones that United States started, last one is still ongoing  in Yemen but nobody talks about it, than you have four years in Libya, than war in Syria (Russia and US involved), war in Iraq, and maybe some other I don't know.
Israel is in state of war war all the time with surrounding countries and within, and many other local wars happened since bitcoin was created.
I am sure I heard African continent having some conflicts in last few decades.

So it is natural that most people, because they do not know the reaction of bitcoin, turn to other assets such as gold and oil. The escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will also cause more fear among investors.

It's not only prices of oil that is going up, but food, grain, rice and everything else, including metals like Palladium that are used for manufacturing of microchips (expect new wave of chip shortage).
China stocked up a lot of rice and all other food, so it seems to me they are preparing for next big world war, and I am not sure bitcoin will save us from that.

[fiulpro]

People don't have access to things like visa and master card, even the Google pay is not working in Russia, the sanctions are coming really hard and at the end of the day this is not looking good, therefore people are now switching onto bitcoins since bitcoins as a whole cannot be sanctioned!
Both ukranians and Russians are using bitcoins to tackle the economic probelms therefore I do think that this is going to be a great place for people who are already used to bitcoins and cryptocurrencies. The banks in Ukraine are not giving enough cash out and the only reason I escaped from there was because I had some money in Bitcoins!!! It's great!! Honestly! Leave oil and other safe assets, nothing is safe right now we are in a war.

[amishmanish]

Demand and Supply in case of Oil. Wars need oil to run. Lots of it. There was a several miles long convoy of Russian millitary trucks stuck in Ukraine due to lack of oil. Every piece of armor and aircraft needs it. On the other hand, the supply gets severely restrained due to obvious geopolitical reasons and everyone trying to hoard more of it.

The world knows that when war hits, you conserve fuel.

In case of Bitcoin, there hasn't really been any defined trend. Crypto rose overall after traders longed on the speculation that Russia may use Bitcoin to circumvent the bans on its banks. It again got a lot of positive press as crypto donations kept pouring in.

This suddenly changed when people realized that a lot of people are in there just for the "airdrops", lol. After an announcement to this effect, lots of spam and small transactions came flooding in. I guess that says something about the space and the subsequent dip.

[hatshepsut93]

I think the biggest problem is that Bitcoin is in a bear market, and people  dump it because there are more lucrative opportunities at the times of this war, like oil or gold. If Bitcoin was in a bull market, the safe haven narrative would have been much stronger.

[Henrobakkara]

Demand and Supply in case of Oil. Wars need oil to run. Lots of it. There was a several miles long convoy of Russian millitary trucks stuck in Ukraine due to lack of oil. Every piece of armor and aircraft needs it.

I believe it wasn't just all about their fuelling which I think Russian would have been able to handle because I think they have abundant of it, I believe it is largely because the Ukrainian army has destroyed the Bridge that those Russian military convoys ought to have used to advance and now they are stuck at the main time. I do however believe that bitcoin did have some more publicity during this time and that's good too.

[usekevin]

People don't have access to things like visa and master card, even the Google pay is not working in Russia, the sanctions are coming really hard and at the end of the day this is not looking good, therefore people are now switching onto bitcoins since bitcoins as a whole cannot be sanctioned!
Both ukranians and Russians are using bitcoins to tackle the economic probelms therefore I do think that this is going to be a great place for people who are already used to bitcoins and cryptocurrencies. The banks in Ukraine are not giving enough cash out and the only reason I escaped from there was because I had some money in Bitcoins!!! It's great!! Honestly! Leave oil and other safe assets, nothing is safe right now we are in a war.

If the oil price is increased, it mean the Russia playing a game behind it. Because Russia want money for the war. Only if they sell oil with increased price, they can win some good money. Instead of pulling on gold and oil. It's better to inverse in digital currency. Now bitcoin price is very low and can't get this value in future. So buy huge amount of bitcoin and hold for longer to get good profit.

[BlackHatCoiner]

TLDR; you can't explain the fluctuations.

I definitely agree.  But look at Shiba, Dogecoin and GameStop for a minute.  See what NFT's did.  With enough sheep, you can move a freaking mountain.  Apparently even if it's made of crap.

There are hundreds of these "mountains" waiting to be moved, but they never do. Only one lucky achieves it once in a while for an irrelevant reason. You can't know what the hell is gonna catch your fishing rod, but you should definitely not expect to catch a big fish. Pretty much the opposite; if you invest in the next dog coin, be prepared to even lose your boat.

I don't know what a trader should do, but if I did the job, I honestly wouldn't get involved with cryptocurrencies at all. I presume trading requires low risk orders, which will increase your income if you do it for a living.

[verita1]

It is evident that the Russian sanctions are related to the occurrence of an increase in the price of oil and gas. There is fear of a possible embargo of Russian oil by the United States.

There are those who are investing to take advantage of the rise in oil and are probably selling bitcoin to make these investments.

The impact of the Ukraine-Russia war that will have serious consequences in one way or another we will be affected.

Elon Musk in a tweet said:

Hate to say it, but we need to increase oil & gas output immediately.

Extraordinary times demand extraordinary measures.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1499907549746937860?t=DV7DIyLbeSK7rpTOmmkchQ&s=19

[sunsilk]

For bitcoin, whether there is war or no war, the price of it is going to fluctuate no matter what and it's an unknown movement that we're going to see at most times.

As for oil, there's the same factor with bitcoin that they move together and that is with the supply and demand. As supply becomes cut as most exporters AFAIK, they're getting crude oil in European part/Russian part and we all know what's with the heat there.

It's a domino effect.