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[Symmetrick]

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[1715599396]

1715599396

[Poker Player]

Nice thread. The only thing I think it is missing would be a column with the total.

The good thing is that it can keep being updated for months and years and see the evolution. I think that as the years go by the returns will be less spectacular.

[DaveF]

Interesting. I have a few issues with it as some things are a bit general. 'Real Estate' is it commercial? Or residential? Or all? Same with 'Energy' it's a bit vague. Can't dig into it from where I am at the moment to see where the data comes from so it may be buried in the tweet.

There are a few other things that are not there that I wonder why, did it not fit the narrative or are they buried in some other category. Rare earth metals comes to mind (not just gold), heavy manufacturing industry also.

-Dave

[Ararbermas]

Nice one OP and to be honest that picture above can really tell why bitcoin is more interesting compared to other assets especially when it comes investment.
Because those green percentage itself is a strong proof that after the downturn bitcoin will make good improvement again and there's always another ATH value in the future.

And what i noticed only bitcoin has big percentage during bullish since 2012? Wow

[Dunamisx]

With this statistics, it is doubtlessly believed that bitcoin has not only come to stay but as a good available store for asset value, if bitcoin can marginalize profit rate with gold on several occasions then I think it worth investing on. And also, i want to appreciate the effort and commitment of yours @Ratimov in bringing up this together, it serve as a reference point to those still in doubts about bitcoin.

[bitmover]

Nice thread. The only thing I think it is missing would be a column with the total.

I just did that here:

Code:

Bitcoin					1,070,386.07%
Gold					17.28%
US Dollar				17.01%
Real Estate				121.68%
Energy					-70.28%
Commodities				-30.75%
Global Aggregate Debt			18.32%
US Treasuries				23.64%
US Small Equities			204.02%
US Large Equities			277.48%
US High Yield				92.76%
US Investment Grade			55.86%
US Government TIPS			37.50%
International Desktop Metal Equities	65.99%
Emerging Markets Currency		9.07%
Emerging Markets Equities		32.35%
Emerging Markets HC Dept		65.73%

I believe bitcoin valorization here is very high because early years was specially high.

I make now a table with the last 5Y only, and the results  were quiet different:

Code:

Bitcoin					4745,91%
Gold					58,20%
US Dollar				-7,73%
Real Estate				50,98%
Energy					--18,95%
Commodities				12,49%
Global Aggregate Debt			17,37%
US Treasuries				16,67%
US Small Equities			65,87%
US Large Equities			112,58%
US High Yield				35,56%
US Investment Grade			28,77%
US Government TIPS			31,95%
International Desktop Metal Equities	38,40%
Emerging Markets Currency		14,18%
Emerging Markets Equities		40,95%
Emerging Markets HC Dept		25,41%

[odolvlobo]

The biggest yearly declines of any asset were Bitcoin's 74% decline in 2018 and 58% decline in 2015. You can't ignore that.

[pooya87]

Interesting table but some rows make no sense to me. For example what is USD being compared to? Other fiat currencies or goods? Or is it just inflation? I think the only viable comparison is to price of goods (groceries, rent, bills) which is all increasing.
The rest are also too local which makes comparing it with global markets (bitcoin, gold, oil) a bit odd. For example even something like "Energy" differs from country to country. I can think of a dozen countries that have been facing an energy crisis over the past couple of years where prices keep rising.

The biggest yearly declines of any asset were Bitcoin's 74% decline in 2018 and 58% decline in 2015. You can't ignore that.

This is why bitcoin market has never been following any other market and is doing its own thing regardless of what is going on elsewhere.

[smartaction]

Asset	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
___________________________________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________
Bitcoin	218%	5428%	-58%	36%	120%	1375%	-74%	95%	305%	60%
Gold	7%	-28%	-1%	-10%	8%	14%	-2%	18%	25%	-4%

Very interesting topic. Great work OP. It is very interesting that Bitcoin has grown so much in less time. And that's why people are becoming more and more interested in Bitcoin. In the days to come, Bitcoin will become more popular and everyone will choose Bitcoin as a trusted and profitable asset like gold.

[_BlackStar]

The biggest yearly declines of any asset were Bitcoin's 74% decline in 2018 and 58% decline in 2015. You can't ignore that.

The decline occurred after ATH and halving, right?
If that's true then I wouldn't rule out a possible declines after ATH $69K in November 2021. Right now the post ATH drop has hit 44% and I would consider a declines of more than 70% this year. Low point for bitcoin price if based on biggest annual decline in 2018 ^[74%] then this year bitcoin could decline to as low as $17K to $20K. It's still possible, but there's never a guarantee that it's true.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

The biggest yearly declines of any asset were Bitcoin's 74% decline in 2018 and 58% decline in 2015. You can't ignore that.

The decline occurred after ATH and halving, right?

The first having took place on 28 Nov 2012, second one was on 9 July 2016 and the latest was on 11 May 2020. The next will be in 2024. So as a matter of fact, bull highest gains have been realized right from the year the halving takes place

If that's true then I wouldn't rule out a possible declines after ATH $69K in November 2021. Right now the post ATH drop has hit 44% and I would consider a declines of more than 70% this year.

It's possible, but the gains of 2021 are not as high as those in 2017 and 2013.

Low point for bitcoin price if based on biggest annual decline in 2018 ^[74%] then this year bitcoin could decline to as low as $17K to $20K. It's still possible, but there's never a guarantee that it's true.

I am expecting 10k to 8K before another bully run post 2024, but anything could happen.

[pooya87]

I am expecting 10k to 8K before another bully run post 2024, but anything could happen.

Your expectations are unreasonable and unprecedented. Price has never gone below the previous ATH after reaching the new ATH. For example when the 2013 bubble at $1200 popped price went down to $200 (previous cycle ATH was about $20).
Again in 2018 when the $20000 bubble popped it went down to $3200 (previous cycle ATH was $1200).

We didn't have any bubble this cycle (bubble of same size would have been $400k+, see my current avatar) so there is no reason to see a big bubble pop in first place. Additionally expecting a dump below the previous ATH (ie. $20000) makes no sense at all either.

based on biggest annual decline in 2018

You see the biggest mistake people make these days is that they keep comparing the drop part without comparing the rise part first.
The big drop in 2018 happened because price had gone up 13000% but the price in this cycle only went up 1700% so you can't possibly begin to compare the two cycles because this one is incomplete.

[_BlackStar]

I am expecting 10k to 8K before another bully run post 2024, but anything could happen.

I agree with pooya87 about the possibility that bitcoin won't decline below its previous ATH once it hits a new ATH. The new ATH is $69K and the previous ATH was around $20K, so if this is a recurring habit then bitcoin won't decline below $20K in the event of a dump and the decline can be considered to be around 50% to 70% or lower. But what is clear is that $8K to $10K is not impossible because something can always change at any time and vice versa.

[slaman29]

I believe bitcoin valorization here is very high because early years was specially high.

I make now a table with the last 5Y only, and the results  were quiet different:

That's really cool, almost 10x more than the closest "competitor" asset. But this last 5 years I guess means it includes the period from March 2017. Bitcoin jumped 20x in the next 9 months from that year. I wonder in another cycle if 5 years will still make Bitcoin the "best" asset to gain in value. I somehow feel it might not be, but let's see how this year looks first, I sort of like it when we are in the dumps because that's usually when things can get extremely exciting!

[kryptqnick]

Yeah, Bitcoin is a very well-performing asset, and data like that show it very clearly. Even though 2020 and 2021 have been economically hard because of the pandemic, and 2022 is getting economically hard because of the war, Bitcoin is still profitable overall because its digital nature makes it less prone to being hit negatively by events like wars and pandemics. Because the only thing that gets disrupted with Bitcoin is mining, and even mining can get readjusted (companies can relocate, and if some stop operating, the difficulty rate that change), while traditional markets are affected by things like global logistics, security, transportation etc.

[Beerwizzard]

I recently came across an interesting picture of various asset classes with annualized returns over the past 10 years. Another proof that bitcoin as an investment has no competitors:

It is pretty stupid make such serious announcement by analyzing Bitcoin just from one side. Absolutely the same material quality like you can see in shitcoin articles saying Shiba Inu is an ultimate investment.
Checking if numbers go up or down doesn't tell if the asset is good.

This is why bitcoin market has never been following any other market and is doing its own thing regardless of what is going on elsewhere.

BTC is actually following the stock market. Investors are happy to get profits during the bull run, but it is still a risky investment. Once a serious crisis happens, people will cash out their bitcoins right away.

[teosanru]

I recently came across an interesting picture of various asset classes with annualized returns over the past 10 years. Another proof that bitcoin as an investment has no competitors:

Asset	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
___________________________________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________	________
Bitcoin	218%	5428%	-58%	36%	120%	1375%	-74%	95%	305%	60%
Gold	7%	-28%	-1%	-10%	8%	14%	-2%	18%	25%	-4%
US Dollar	-1%	0%	13%	9%	4%	-10%	4%	0%	-7%	6%
Real Estate	16%	-1%	23%	-1%	5%	5%	-8%	24%	-8%	37%
Energy	-9%	-5%	-39%	-39%	14%	-4%	-13%	12%	-43%	52%
Commodities	-1%	-10%	-17%	-25%	11%	1%	-13 %	5%	-4%	27%
Global Aggregate Debt	4%	-3%	1%	-3%	2%	7%	-1%	7%	9%	-5%
US Treasuries	2%	-3%	5%	1%	1%	2%	1%	7%	8%	-2%
US Small Equities	15%	37%	4%	-6%	19%	13%	-12%	24%	18%	14%
US Large Equities	13%	30%	11%	-1%	10%	19%	-6%	29%	16%	27%
US High Yield	16%	7%	2%	-4%	17%	8%	-2%	14%	7%	5%
US Investment Grade	10%	-2%	7%	-1%	6%	6%	-3%	15%	10%	-1%
US Government TIPS	7%	-9%	4%	-2%	5%	3%	-1%	9%	12%	6%
International Desktop Metal Equities	14%	19%	-7%	-3%	-2%	22%	-16%	18%	5%	9%
Emerging Markets Currency	6%	-2%	-4%	-7%	3%	11%	-4%	3%	3%	1%
Emerging Markets Equities	15%	-5%	-5%	-17%	9%	34%	-17%	15%	16%	-5%
Emerging Markets HC Dept	18%	-4%	5%	1%	10%	8%	-2%	13%	7%	-2%

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1499482167231062025/photo/1

Table of monthly profitability of bitcoin for the last 10 years:

No offense but if you keep some other altcoins along with bitcoin here it might prove to be an even better investment say for instance Shiba Inu, an Investment isn't only decided by its historic returns but also the volatility, future prospects and utility. Volatility is important because what will you do if you invested in 2017 and want to take out money in 2018? Will you take your money out at a 70% loss? Absolutely no! Moreover if everyone decides to treat bitcoin as an investment option then what utility is it actually left with?

[bitgolden]

Obviously when you zoom out and see what bitcoin did for the past 10 years, you are going to see it being awesome. Not many things could go up the way it did. However, you have to realize that it was basically the early days of bitcoin and that is why when something great starts, and goes up for the first 10 years, it will be a bit unfair for the other things.

If we look at the next 10 years, it will be closer, bitcoin will probably still win but it will be closer, if we look 10 years after that, even closer. So, this wasn't a fair calculation, there weren't many people here, and there wasn't much market to make from crypto at the time neither.

[Distinctin]

I think I would just look at the yearly comparison as it gives a clearer picture.

In the picture, I focused on bitcoin and I can clearly see how volatile Bitcoin is since at some point it dumps -74% as its highest but it only pumped in a whooping and unbelievable increase of 5428% which is the highest.

This only tells that investing in bitcoin as long as you know how to hold and sell at the right time could mean a fortune to you, and the trend just continues since bitcoin has no ceiling price as long as the demand continues to increase.

[worle1bm]

Really interesting chart with nice comparisons among gold and USD to determine how much potential bitcoin have and grown in the past years.The only major fall was in 2018 after that ICO bubble burst in 2017 which caused the red graphs printing highly in the market while making regular growth each year.These big picture proves that how much returns holders have got through holding bitcoin.All other are mostly depleting similar to gold and not having much left to give to hodlers.