What will happen to the Bitcoin network if Russia blocks access to the internet?

[PrivacyG]

imagine it this way
if there are 10 olympic runners each averaging a time of 9.5-10.5 seconds in a 100metre run.. only 1 can win
take one person off the track does not make the other runners run slower. it just means the chances of the 9 remaining runners winning increases. the average win is still the same average. but now 9 people get more wins when they run regularly

what does cause a speed up or slowdown. is if each of the runners are using more or less muscle(asics) then previous fortnight. meaning the average time over a fortnight has changed to be more or less then the needed average.

taking one competitor out of the race does not impact the speed of the other runners.
if one runner doesnt turn up. the other runners dont suddenly walk the 100m out of compassion for a lost competitor. the other runners still run at their same average speed. and now get a higher chance of winning per race

If Russian miners can not see blocks coming from the rest of the world and the world does not see Russia's, then does it not lead to forking?

I believe o_e_l_e_o meant something else.  If you have 75% of the hashrate and I have 25% and suddenly we lose connection, the blocks continue on my side as if you disconnected and on your side as if I did.  You still have a significantly higher hashrate than I do, which makes it easier to solve blocks for you than it is for me.  Since to me it is way more difficult to solve blocks, by the time difficulty changes you will have mined more blocks than I did.  The difficulty changes, so now your chain continues to be first although I do not see it yet.  Now the question remains, do we continue sideways until we connect and my progress vanishes in front of your chain or do we fork?  The safest and most logical way is the latter, unless the Russians want to play a Bitcoin Russian roulette.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

[franky1]

Even if Putin blocked all ISPs in the country, there would still be other ways to communicate with the Internet, right? I mean, I don't know exactly how it works technically, but unless all the phone connections to the rest of the world are cut off, people could still use other ISPs from neighboring countries? And how about satellites, or other forms of radiowave communication?

ADSL and fibre routers dont 'dial out' to a ISP telephone number, so its not like you can dial-up to a new ISP .. well unless you want to use old dial-up speeds with a 56k modem

they work by 'switches' which direct certain data along the cable going to certain places. when you sign up to an ISP, THEY switch the switches to the particular provider. its not something you can control at your wall socket end

yes you can use satalite tech. EG Elon musk has redirected his starlink to move on a path that allows ukraine to be inline, but then there is the issue of elon getting 'base station' dishes into ukraine for them to communicate with starlink. same would apply to russia. having the orbital satalites on a path and having the base station dishes to communicate with it.

as for radio waves.. well thats like dialup speed stuff.. ok for short messages like a sms or tweet. but not for live streaming or bitcoin mining/block downloading

[Accardo]

Even if Putin blocked all ISPs in the country, there would still be other ways to communicate with the Internet, right? I mean, I don't know exactly how it works technically, but unless all the phone connections to the rest of the world are cut off, people could still use other ISPs from neighboring countries? And how about satellites, or other forms of radiowave communication?

Every kind of network LAN or WAN to communicate internationally with other computers in different countries needs an ISP to achieve this goal. It is possible for Russia to create a network that can communicate with computers in Russia which nobody can penetrate depending on the model they implemented.

[24Kt]

Nothing serious would happening, except that Russia would be left in the dark. Yeah, I know that some people would be expecting Bitcoin and whatever they are thinking, but man, Bitcoin has survived so many tough times in the past, so what would make this one any different?

Yes, there are lots of miners there as of lately, that’s true, and we do know that it would affect the hashrate of course. But, these are not going to be some kind of permanent issue to the Bitcoin network. Within a short time things are still going to change, and even if the price should drop (which would be just a bit) because of that, it would still pick up quickly for sure.

Just remember that even if China totally banned mining, which was known to be the home of large percentage of miners, still bitcoin survives. So in case ,Russia will cut-off its bitcoin miners from the rest of the world, they are just small percentage in the hashrate or can we say, they are not controlling the majority of hash rate. It may have an immediate impact but bitcoin will continue to move forward just like when bitcoin went down when China announced its banning policy. But in few days, it recovered. This is the good thing about bitcoin, no country can control its existence. If one door closes, there will be more windows that will open for bitcoin.

[Kelvinid]

Russia is considering shutting down the internet connection to the rest of the globe. What will occur? Is the hash rate decreasing? What will happen if the connection is re-established in a few years?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/technology/russia-ukraine-internet-isolation.html

It gives an impact on the crypto transaction but not that much. I could assume that they will turn back open to the other countries once the conflict is over. But for now, as they are taking control of their internet. This obviously stops the people in Russia to trade, perhaps there is no such confirmation yet of not allowing them but as Putin said to block internet access, that really be possible. Maybe we can't just see it now but in the coming days, there we can see changes as we know that there are huge crypto users in Russia.

[LegendaryK]

Russia is considering shutting down the internet connection to the rest of the globe. What will occur? Is the hash rate decreasing? What will happen if the connection is re-established in a few years?

Russia will separate from the normal internet on March 11, 2022.  

Russian bitcoin wallets and Russian bitcoin miners will be disconnected from the bitcoin network and all altcoin networks also.
Meaning they will be unable to use their bitcoins, unless they can circumvent the ban by accessing the normal internet,
which would mean having a satellite internet linkup not affected by the disconnect.

What could happen is bitcoin miners in Russia could split off from the main bitcoin network and continue their chain in a Russia only version.

If the nets were ever connected , then the Russia chain would battle the normal internet chain for dominance wiping out the weaker chain transactions,
however odds are the group running the weaker chain at that time, would update their code with a program coded checkpoint to prevent their chain from being wiped out.
Many would think the Russia chain would be weaker, but if the other countries keep banning bitcoin mining and Russia supported it,
the Russian chain could potentially become the stronger chain in time.

The real issue , is it proves that bitcoin is not as resistant to government censorship as some in these forums believe,
as by having a mere ISP backbone supporter disconnect from a segment, disables an entire country access to bitcoin, wallet transactions and mining.
Outlaw internet satellite access and across border travel, and you would not be able to cash out a single satoshi of btc from your wallet.

[acener]

Russia is considering shutting down the internet connection to the rest of the globe. What will occur? Is the hash rate decreasing? What will happen if the connection is re-established in a few years?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/technology/russia-ukraine-internet-isolation.html

It gives an impact on the crypto transaction but not that much. I could assume that they will turn back open to the other countries once the conflict is over. But for now, as they are taking control of their internet. This obviously stops the people in Russia to trade, perhaps there is no such confirmation yet of not allowing them but as Putin said to block internet access, that really be possible. Maybe we can't just see it now but in the coming days, there we can see changes as we know that there are huge crypto users in Russia.

I also think that it wouldn't affect much this is almost same as China banning Bitcoin,
The price could decline but I believe that it would still stay strong and once they get back we could see the price go up again.

[m2017]

2% of nodes/ maybe 20% of miners..(if a russian internet ban includes kazahkstan)
 that is all..

Add to this the reduction in russian bitcoin user base. I don't know what share they occupy in the world, but I assume that a tangible part. If people cann't use bitcoin network due to lack of technical capability, then some of these BTC will fall out of the general circulation for an unknown time. The effect on bitcoin network will definitely not be positive.

[o_e_l_e_o]

imagine it this way
if there are 10 olympic runners each averaging a time of 9.5-10.5 seconds in a 100metre run.. only 1 can win
take one person off the track does not make the other runners run slower. it just means the chances of the 9 remaining runners winning increases. the average win is still the same average. but now 9 people get more wins when they run regularly

what does cause a speed up or slowdown. is if each of the runners are using more or less muscle(asics) then previous fortnight. meaning the average time over a fortnight has changed to be more or less then the needed average.

taking one competitor out of the race does not impact the speed of the other runners.
if one runner doesnt turn up. the other runners dont suddenly walk the 100m out of compassion for a lost competitor. the other runners still run at their same average speed. and now get a higher chance of winning per race

If Russian miners can not see blocks coming from the rest of the world and the world does not see Russia's, then does it not lead to forking?

I believe o_e_l_e_o meant something else.  If you have 75% of the hashrate and I have 25% and suddenly we lose connection, the blocks continue on my side as if you disconnected and on your side as if I did.  You still have a significantly higher hashrate than I do, which makes it easier to solve blocks for you than it is for me.  Since to me it is way more difficult to solve blocks, by the time difficulty changes you will have mined more blocks than I did.  The difficulty changes, so now your chain continues to be first although I do not see it yet.  Now the question remains, do we continue sideways until we connect and my progress vanishes in front of your chain or do we fork?  The safest and most logical way is the latter, unless the Russians want to play a Bitcoin Russian roulette.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

franky1 is referring to my statement that the main chain will take longer to mine blocks if it loses all the Russian hashrate. He is incorrect, and his analogy is flawed. Let's assume that there is 100 EH/s, and Russian miners control 10 EH/s. The difficulty is set so that with 100 EH/s, blocks take on average 10 minutes. If we then lose all the Russian hashrate, we will drop to 90 EH/s, whereas the difficulty will still be set to target 10 minute block times for 100 EH/s. Until the next difficulty retarget, which will be a maximum of 2016 blocks away, then the average block time will be prolonged.

In the scenario you are talking about, there would initially be a chain split, but not a fork. The rest of the world would mine a chain of blocks, and Russian miners would mine a different chain of blocks. If nothing changed about the two protocols by the time communication was reestablished, then the Russian chain would simply be discarded in favor of the main chain. The other possibility is that one or both chains implement a fork which is not compatible with the other chain, and so they stay as separate coins after communication is reestablished. This could be an adjustment to the difficulty algorithm on the Russian chain, or perhaps some new upgrade on the main chain which is not reflected on the Russian chain.

Note also that it is not the length of the chains which decides which one is the main chain, but rather which one contains more work. Even if the Russians drop the difficulty massively and suddenly mine tens of thousands of blocks, the rest of the world's shorter chain would still be the main chain because it contains more work due to the higher difficulty and higher cumulative hashrate.

[cheezcarls]

I am pretty sure that there will be panic selloffs from the Russian crypto community if that happens, thus seeing another market decline temporarily before it can recover once again in the future. Putin has completely destroyed the reputation of his own country. The ones who really suffer are the innocent citizens of Russia (especially those who are into crypto). I’ve got beautiful and amazing friends there that I’ve met both physical (in other countries) and virtual.

[Questat]

I am pretty sure that there will be panic selloffs from the Russian crypto community if that happens, thus seeing another market decline temporarily before it can recover once again in the future.

That really be going to expect from them. Major sell-off coming from Russia triggers a huge dump in major exchanges. Well, on the other side, investors from other countries have the chance to buy more and this is an advantage for us.

Putin has completely destroyed the reputation of his own country. The ones who really suffer are the innocent citizens of Russia (especially those who are into crypto).

He'd never realized it for now but sooner or later, he could think about what he's done. It ruins not only for his reputation but he brings the entire country to suffer.

[fiulpro]

Russia is considering shutting down the internet connection to the rest of the globe. What will occur? Is the hash rate decreasing? What will happen if the connection is re-established in a few years?

You you really think they can do that? The Russians cannot be the next North Korea, their people would honestly wage a war against everyone and the whole nation. This is not something that people would take care of since they have to sell their bitcoins as well and what would their recieve ?? Rubles?? The value of a ruble is nothing now, which does mean that, they have to hold onto something more important, like bitcoins..the government is going to collapse soon.

If they sell everything off they won't be able to ward off the inevitable governance, inflation? Their ties are already cut off and US is banning the oil supplies now, what do you think people will hold onto?

I think all of this is going to end soon, the world cannot afford another North Korea right now. Let the people have their rights, don't make them sell the only thing protecting them right now.

[Ozero]

Russia is considering shutting down the internet connection to the rest of the globe. What will occur? Is the hash rate decreasing? What will happen if the connection is re-established in a few years?

All these are part of the effect of the SWIFT ban place on Russia and the whole economy there is downsizing and even users of centralized crypto exchanges account are experiencing ban as about 25000 coinbase user accounts were placed on ban, all international connections Russia has build in the past were been nullified, Russia war given a sound and clear warning before looming into fight against Ukraine. The thing is that those suffering it are the masses who has nothing to do with war, all their businesses have been affected and halted, with or without Russia cryptocurrency still move on steadily just that the innocent citizens who are into crypto will bear the cost after being affected.

I have not heard such news yet. Disconnecting Russia from the general Internet, apparently, is a purely political decision and it is associated with failures in the war with Ukraine and tough international sanctions for this aggression. It seems that the citizens of Russia are going to continue to be kept away from objective information and continue to feed them with their propaganda in order to prolong the agony of the Putin regime. Very quickly, Russia is turning into a pariah country like North Korea.
Together with the sanctions, which are destroying the Russian economy rather quickly, the shutdown of the general Internet will set this country back many decades in development. Well, you have to pay for everything, and for the aggression against Ukraine as well.

[coupable]

Russia is considering shutting down the internet connection to the rest of the globe. What will occur? Is the hash rate decreasing? What will happen if the connection is re-established in a few years?

Can you provide the source please ?
I search about the news but found nothing. I don't really think that Russia will talke this way besides the occident sanctions. I wish not meanwhile.
At worst cases, miners can migrate to to other alternative countries like Georgia or Khazakhestan.

[pawanjain]

I don't think Russia would be doing that anytime soon because a large amount of the population uses internet on daily basis.
Many of their businesses run on internet as well. So may be they won't do such a thing that will cause themselves a harm.
Even if they decide to block internet for some period of time then it won't effect the Bitcoin network majorly.
Since Bitcoin is a decentralized network, the other nodes will be able to validate the blocks and miners from other countries will be able to mine the blocks.
So there's no harm particularly for Bitcoin.

[kryptqnick]

Russia is considering shutting down the internet connection to the rest of the globe. What will occur? Is the hash rate decreasing? What will happen if the connection is re-established in a few years?

So far, Russia claims it's not planning to get out of the Internet. I think that realistically Russia is heading to a semi-closed Internet, similar to what's the case in China (lots of banned websites, basically, but not completely inaccessible). China has worked on their version for a long time, but Russia might still be able to pull this off. They're blocking some major social networks already, and considering banning Wikipedia, of all things. But this doesn't mean that there's literally zero access to Facebook in Russia right now, for example, as people know how to use VPNs and can do so successfully. As for mining, I do think that it can be disrupted, but just like when something like this always happens, relocation is possible, and the overall impact on the price should not be high.

[jaberwock]

All these are part of the effect of the SWIFT ban place on Russia and the whole economy there is downsizing and even users of centralized crypto exchanges account are experiencing ban as about 25000 coinbase user accounts were placed on ban, all international connections Russia has build in the past were been nullified, Russia war given a sound and clear warning before looming into fight against Ukraine. The thing is that those suffering it are the masses who has nothing to do with war, all their businesses have been affected and halted, with or without Russia cryptocurrency still move on steadily just that the innocent citizens who are into crypto will bear the cost after being affected.

Yeah, mainly the innocent poor citizens in the country will be the ones who are going to be suffering from this. Now they are planning to shut down their internet from the rest of the world? Well, in this case I think things are really going to be getting worse in their country, and like said, the poor ones will suffer it the most, but it would also get to the people at the top, it’s just with time.

But, by the time it gets to those at the top, the poor innocent citizens would have suffered too much from it. Their economy is falling, and they have been banned from a lot of things, and now they want to disconnect their internet, the situation is really messed up for them. I was even thinking that by now that they would have ended this madness.

[JayTrain]

I don't think this will happen, but still, if you imagine it, it won't be good, there are a lot of people involved in cryptocurrency in this country and also a lot of miners, but the cryptocurrency as a whole will survive this, because after the ban in China of bitcoin, everything eventually fell into place.

[Webetcoins]

I also think that it wouldn't affect much this is almost same as China banning Bitcoin,
The price could decline but I believe that it would still stay strong and once they get back we could see the price go up again.

Russia is larger than china so the impact is going to be a little stronger than what china experienced. Another thing is that China has only banned bitcoin mining I think? and not totally bitcoin. They also didn't ban the internet, that is why people can still trade and invest in bitcoin.

I am not sure that if the news was true, why would they ban the internet? I thought they are already planning to use bitcoin as an alternative to banks. Did they change their minds or what? internet is too useful to be banned as lots of people now are relying on it. Not only this can bring damage to the price of bitcoin but it can also bring lots of damage to their economy.

[coolcoinz]

here is the thing.
if putin wanted to, he could stop the citizen serving ISP's, meaning even if you have a VPN its useless if your router cant even connect to your ISP
whilst still allowing a public sector ISP to service the inner government routers

its not about IP banning certain sites. its about turning off ISP's that citizens subscribe to and have a landline/cellular network connection to that can be switched off.

i doubt putin would stretch that far to P!55 off all his citizens, but then again other countries have(kazahkstan fuel riots). so i wouldnt put it past him

That would mean a million more people on welfare, at least!

All the freelancers like journalists, coders, translators, all youtubers, streamers, content creators of various types, moderators, game designers, small online stores, everything would go to shit. That would mean serious drop in taxes and gigantic unemployment and migration. Sure, he can do it, but that's going to be the last nail in his coffin.