The paradox of arbitrage betting (and how to make money on it)

[timerland]

I think that there are two problems with this:

1. You are not going to find a lot of profitable arbitrage opportunities. Even if you sign up to a subscription service, by the time that you see a recommendation/tip it's probably already too late and the opportunity has been taken advantage of.

2. A lot of the people here don't have the bankroll management that is necessary for this, and it's not a "surebet" in the sense that you are only making paper profits (in terms of EV) and not necessarily booking it in reality. There is a huge difference in risk.

1. The theoretical possibility is one thing, the practical implementation is another. I showed a theoretical possibility. And in fact, arbitrage opportunities are not fleeting phenomena at all - for example, if you bet a week before the event, then you will most likely have the opportunity (long in time) to make an arbitrage counter-bet. If this opportunity does not appear, then you can wait for the start of a sporting event and catch such a bet in live mode.

2. The problem of the presence or absence of the necessary bankroll does not cancel the fact that there is an opportunity to make arbitrage bets.
I do not see a fundamental difference in risk, since at a distance (as I showed in the calculations in the first post), from the point of view of mathematics, such bets are equivalent to classical arbitrage.

You're right for 1. Theoretically, there is nothing different when it comes to EV and yes I do agree that some arbitrage opportunities can be long-lasting, but these are definitely rarer to come by.

I disagree with your second point however.

There is an inherent difference between a surebet (which returns you a profit, without risk) and what you've shown. Yes, EV is positive but you have significant variance in your outcomes. You always have a non-zero risk of losing all your bankroll with this.

[Boristhecat]

1. The theoretical possibility is one thing, the practical implementation is another. I showed a theoretical possibility. And in fact, arbitrage opportunities are not fleeting phenomena at all - for example, if you bet a week before the event, then you will most likely have the opportunity (long in time) to make an arbitrage counter-bet. If this opportunity does not appear, then you can wait for the start of a sporting event and catch such a bet in live mode.

2. The problem of the presence or absence of the necessary bankroll does not cancel the fact that there is an opportunity to make arbitrage bets.
I do not see a fundamental difference in risk, since at a distance (as I showed in the calculations in the first post), from the point of view of mathematics, such bets are equivalent to classical arbitrage.

You're right for 1. Theoretically, there is nothing different when it comes to EV and yes I do agree that some arbitrage opportunities can be long-lasting, but these are definitely rarer to come by.

I disagree with your second point however.

There is an inherent difference between a surebet (which returns you a profit, without risk) and what you've shown. Yes, EV is positive but you have significant variance in your outcomes. You always have a non-zero risk of losing all your bankroll with this.

In the second point, a significant difference from arbitrage betting can be recognized that in certain segments the deposit will decrease, this is a fact. But I do not agree that there is a risk of losing the entire deposit - the minimum bankroll management (such as allocating no more than 10% of the deposit to the bet and adjusting the size of the bets depending on the remaining balance) protects you from this, and a positive EV ensures its growth over a distance.

[LUCKMCFLY]

This is an interesting topic to discuss. The concept of arbitrage betting has taken on a completely different dimension in the gambling world in recent years. A true classic arbitrage bet should be one that you always win 100%. I have read that such players are often quickly banned from gambling sites. What you see more nowadays is that they place a value bet, you don't need 2 bookmakers for that. That's the big problem with an arbitrage bet, you have to play at 2 bookmakers and the limits shouldn't be a problem. The terms and conditions may also work against you.

If you are very right in what you say, but also on occasions they are usually seen on gaming sites that mostly have many bots making bets, I do not know if the platforms have these bots as decoys so that when normal users enter and try their luck they can give account and apply something like that, the arbitration already in these sites is something that turns out to be very different, what we mostly know as arbitration is in the exchanges and the way to make small amounts taking advantage of some normal bugs that there are delays between them, delays that we could not do at human speed, but only a machine or bot could do it, but in games I see it as very difficult.

[dimonstration]

I'm not aware that there's a scenario that 2 book maker offer an exact opposite odds on each outcome. Can you provide a sample bet pick from different Casino that this kind of arbitrage betting can be applied? This will only happened if one of the bookmaker commit an error on placing odds but as I remember most of the bookmaker has a centralized data on all of there odds so it's very hard to spot a match that contains this scenario. Or I'm understanding your point in the wrong way.

I will really appreciate if you can provide actual sample even if you don't actually place a bet. Just a comparison sample. Nice thread by the way boris!

[Mauser]

I'm not aware that there's a scenario that 2 book maker offer an exact opposite odds on each outcome. Can you provide a sample bet pick from different Casino that this kind of arbitrage betting can be applied? This will only happened if one of the bookmaker commit an error on placing odds but as I remember most of the bookmaker has a centralized data on all of there odds so it's very hard to spot a match that contains this scenario. Or I'm understanding your point in the wrong way.

I will really appreciate if you can provide actual sample even if you don't actually place a bet. Just a comparison sample. Nice thread by the way boris!

It might be hard to provide data for such arbitrage opportunities because the market is moving so fast. There are probably hundreds of people looking for the opportunity to make some free money. So I would expect as soon as there is an arbitrage the first few people will get money quickly and the opportunity disappears quickly. The bookmakers try to no have risk for themselves, so they will adjust quotes quicky. The more people buy one leg of the bet, the faster the odds will adjust.

[dimonstration]

I'm not aware that there's a scenario that 2 book maker offer an exact opposite odds on each outcome. Can you provide a sample bet pick from different Casino that this kind of arbitrage betting can be applied? This will only happened if one of the bookmaker commit an error on placing odds but as I remember most of the bookmaker has a centralized data on all of there odds so it's very hard to spot a match that contains this scenario. Or I'm understanding your point in the wrong way.

I will really appreciate if you can provide actual sample even if you don't actually place a bet. Just a comparison sample. Nice thread by the way boris!

It might be hard to provide data for such arbitrage opportunities because the market is moving so fast. There are probably hundreds of people looking for the opportunity to make some free money. So I would expect as soon as there is an arbitrage the first few people will get money quickly and the opportunity disappears quickly. The bookmakers try to no have risk for themselves, so they will adjust quotes quicky. The more people buy one leg of the bet, the faster the odds will adjust.

You’re referring to live betting which is really impossible to do this because book maker change there odds every seconds. I believe this arbitrage betting is applicable on prematch games since you will need to compare all the odds in different sportsbook. I’m familiar with bookmaker error but I never encounter one of it in my years of placing bet on sportsbook. If anyone already done this theoretical strategy, Maybe giving feedback here will give motivation to pursue on this strategy.

[ralle14]

You’re referring to live betting which is really impossible to do this because book maker change there odds every seconds. I believe this arbitrage betting is applicable on prematch games since you will need to compare all the odds in different sportsbook. I’m familiar with bookmaker error but I never encounter one of it in my years of placing bet on sportsbook. If anyone already done this theoretical strategy, Maybe giving feedback here will give motivation to pursue on this strategy.

It's possible as i've done it a couple of times before whenever the underdog gets a good start you can get decent odds on the huge favorites then you have to pray that the favs recover midway through the game in order to catch the underdog at plus odds. In the end, there's still a bit of risk involved as you need to catch both teams whenever they're at a disadvantage in order to get their odds above even.

Also, it's tough to bet on live odds as it's more juiced compared to pre-live but there's always an opportunity knowing you just have to catch them at the right time.

[AicecreaME]

The problem is that bookmakers (at least in my country) fight successful bettors not only on formal grounds (prohibition of arbitrage bets, multi-accounts for receiving bonuses, etc.) but also simply because such bettors are profitable. It can be called differently, like a ban on "value betting", but basically, for no reason, successful bettors have their betting limit reduced and they are practically deprived of the opportunity to bet at least some significant amounts.

I noticed this too. Most bettors that frequently play and win a bet are usually the ones who have decreased in limits as well as odds. Sometimes, these situations aren't even given into the sight of the bettor. There's no notification or alert given that they have decreased the limit and odds due to their playstyle and frequency of playing which is unfair on the side of the player because they've been a patronage.

I guess the casinos do this to balance the system. Perhaps this is their way to make someone deliberately play over and over again due to some adjustments. Or maybe this is their way so that they won't lose much money in a player who knows how to top up his game.