Impact of a US Digital Dollar on Crypto?

[Abiky]

There's been a lot of talks about the Federal Reserve's plans to develop a Digital Dollar in order to phase out paper money for good. The US is aware that China has launched a CBDC of its own, leading it to act fast in order to maintain its grasp on the global economy. I wonder what would the impact of a Digital Dollar be on crypto itself? Knowing that people prefer convenience on top of security/reliability/decentralization, it's likely the majority will "ditch" crypto in favor of a government-backed digital currency.

By the time all countries have their own digital currencies, it's likely governments will become more oppressive against crypto/Blockchain tech. We're still a few years away from seeing a Digital Dollar in circulation, so there should be nothing to worry about at least in the time being.

Thoughts?

[Hydrogen]

I'm not expecting a US CBDC to offer advantages over crypto. They won't offer lower transaction fees, or a private key based system allowing sole ownership and control over funds to end users. They will not adopt a hard deflationary model, which could qualify their CBDC as an inflation protected asset. They won't implement a gold standard whereby their CBDC can be exchanged for precious metals. There won't be high interest earned by staking CBDCs as there is with crypto.

The approach regulators and the state makes to CBDC rules out every avenue which could allow them to be competitive in global markets. In an era where social credit and state surveillance are concerns, CBDC could be viewed as extensions of these programs, which I think most would prefer to avoid.

CBDC will have a difficult time to overcome the many obstacles and skepticism most will have towards it.

If it is pegged to the dollar, CBDC might be used as a stablecoin in countries like venezuela, turkey and argentina which could help residents to avoid inflation. That might be one area it could have real world application. Although given the preference for regional lockouts where video games made in japan can't be played in the USA, as an industry standard, it is possible that may not be an option outside of forex which already exists.

[Beerwizzard]

As far as I'm aware CBDC is mainly a fancy experiment but not a serious project. At least central banks that  created ones did not demonstrate any significant results.

Hydrogen explained it pretty clearly. In addition I can say that in the best case we will get CBDC that works just like tether but without any scandals and with reputable issuer.  And first, it doesn't seems like central banks are actually willing to make tether-like CBDC. They still want to remain control over it. Second, do we actually need CBDC? What issues would be resolved by using CBDC? It might be that no one just needs it.

[Lucius]

Knowing that people prefer convenience on top of security/reliability/decentralization, it's likely the majority will "ditch" crypto in favor of a government-backed digital currency.

For all those who will not understand the difference between CBDC and Bitcoin until then, it will not be too important anyway, because the only difference between paper and digital fiat is that the government will be able to control us much better than now. Those who value privacy will certainly gravitate even more towards Bitcoin, but I do not mean only those good people, but also criminals who prefer banknotes above all.

By the time all countries have their own digital currencies, it's likely governments will become more oppressive against crypto/Blockchain tech. We're still a few years away from seeing a Digital Dollar in circulation, so there should be nothing to worry about at least in the time being.

It's always a possibility, but the authorities still have very powerful instruments today to do great damage to Bitcoin, only if they want to - all they need to do is follow China's example. In addition, the CBDC will be introduced gradually, so we know from the example of the EU that it has been proposed that each adult resident will be able to have a maximum of 300 digital EUR one day when it becomes available.

[Gyfts]

I'm not expecting a US CBDC to offer advantages over crypto. They won't offer lower transaction fees, or a private key based system allowing sole ownership and control over funds to end users. They will not adopt a hard deflationary model, which could qualify their CBDC as an inflation protected asset. They won't implement a gold standard whereby their CBDC can be exchanged for precious metals. There won't be high interest earned by staking CBDCs as there is with crypto.

The approach regulators and the state makes to CBDC rules out every avenue which could allow them to be competitive in global markets. In an era where social credit and state surveillance are concerns, CBDC could be viewed as extensions of these programs, which I think most would prefer to avoid.

CBDC will have a difficult time to overcome the many obstacles and skepticism most will have towards it.

If it is pegged to the dollar, CBDC might be used as a stablecoin in countries like venezuela, turkey and argentina which could help residents to avoid inflation. That might be one area it could have real world application. Although given the preference for regional lockouts where video games made in japan can't be played in the USA, as an industry standard, it is possible that may not be an option outside of forex which already exists.

If they peg it to the dollar then inflation is still an issue because the money supply is not finite. They can create currency out of thin air, it just becomes digitalized under a CBDC system. If they chose to peg it to something like gold then it might help with inflation. There is no indication the countries floating the idea of a CBDC have aims of doing that though (granted, we're very early).

IMO the goal of a CBDC is to eliminate paper money in an age where everything is digital, and while the government is at it they can use it as a mechanism to control the money supply easier than paper-based currency. They would present CBDC's as a crypto competitor when it is nothing remotely similar.

[dbc23]

Even if  the entire countries have their own CBDC it can't pose a threat against Bitcoin. We have had many countries adopt Bitcoin lately and the highest that can be done in regards to Bitcoin if CBDC takes over the world is that Bitcoin will be a store of value other than a legal tender.

CBDC is only a digital version of the normal fiat and it will still retain the intial value the paper currency have

[titular]

I think they will have their own respective uses in the financial system.

I could see a digital dollar being what we use in stores for everyday transactions, while bitcoin being a strong reserve asset/SOV.

I would love to see the LN take the load of everyday transactions, but in all honesty, the government use various legal means to ensure their currency is what is used in stores.

[bitgolden]

In my perspective, it will be good. Anyone who thinks that it will not be good, did not really understood the assignment at all.

If you do not need BUSD, USDT, USDC and GUSD, but you can use whatever government calls their digital currency, DUSD? Then you know that it is not binance, it is not Winklevii twins or some bitfinex hackoff tether company in Bahamas.

It is the USA government that guarantees you that this money has dollar value. That would be awesome for crypto and for trading, ALL of the pairings will become that, we won't have all those USDT and so forth pairings anymore, we will have this new one and I believe it will certainly be great than what we have currently having (not sure how many of you are making use of stablecoins with cautions but I always do have a secondary thought like it may end up similar to Liberty Reserve).

[Tony116]

CBDC is no different from fiat money, all provided and controlled by the government, it will even be more strictly regulated than the current way of circulating fiat.
We love cryptocurrencies not because they are convenient but because of their decentralization. I don't think people will give up crypto because of CBDC.
Crypto have opened up a convenient digital world, certainly countries are working to come up with their own CBDCs for each country.
Until they come up with regulations to crackdown on crypto to force people to accept CBDC, but it is not possible to completely ban cryptocurrencies.

[Fortify]

There's been a lot of talks about the Federal Reserve's plans to develop a Digital Dollar in order to phase out paper money for good. The US is aware that China has launched a CBDC of its own, leading it to act fast in order to maintain its grasp on the global economy. I wonder what would the impact of a Digital Dollar be on crypto itself? Knowing that people prefer convenience on top of security/reliability/decentralization, it's likely the majority will "ditch" crypto in favor of a government-backed digital currency.

By the time all countries have their own digital currencies, it's likely governments will become more oppressive against crypto/Blockchain tech. We're still a few years away from seeing a Digital Dollar in circulation, so there should be nothing to worry about at least in the time being.

Thoughts?

Any financial instruments that are built by the government are bound to get more support in future with integration into things like the tax system. Ultimately we have to accept that Bitcoin was simply a very successful test model, it might hold it's novelty for a long time especially with so many richer people invested in it now but for practicality it's highly likely other cryptocurrencies will end up taking up the role of digital cash. You might argue that having government backing, with all the funding the goes into creating physical cash right now, would give better stability and less outside interference - as long as people were confident that the system could not be inflated without solid justification.

[PrivacyG]

Knowing that people prefer convenience on top of security/reliability/decentralization, it's likely the majority will "ditch" crypto in favor of a government-backed digital currency.

I disagree.  Even with oppression, Bitcoin and some of the Altcoins will still find their way into the world.  Digital USD is fun until it is not.  It is fun until they start seizing your rights and until you find out they can cut off your finance by just flipping a switch on their side.

To me, Cryptocurrencies are not going anywhere even with CBDC's up and running.  Sure, some will leave our community but if they leave Bitcoin for Digital USD, then I am actually happy about it because they were not here for the technology and what features Bitcoin brings anyway.  Whoever chooses dirty digital USD over Bitcoin is definitely not here for decentralization or freedom of finance.

They can try, and they probably will try to make Bitcoin obsolete but they will not be able to do so.  I have even seen them promise CBDC's are going to combine digital finance with privacy which is just deceiving.  Nobody can tell me a government is happily releasing a version of fiat that has privacy built in with no backdoors for it.  And if there are backdoors, there is no privacy.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

[crwth]

The majority of people are still inclined to use Fiat currencies in which the government issues it, and that is the current setup, and right now and they are just trying to digitize it.

I’m looking at it in different ways; one is that they will make it easier to print more cash. I hope that it will be transparent in how much there is, and probably the Blockchain can do something with it.

The other thing that I see is that they are too late in the digitization in which that bitcoin has already filled the role of that as the digital currency or something.

Better be careful and hedge.

[The Great Kardoko]

It probably won't be as dramatic as anyone thinks. It's already a digital affair. Physical printing of paper money is a very small part of money creation in the US, most of it is done by someone going into a computer and changing a number.

[Gozie51]

About the digital dollar. We see dollar as a highly influential currency that almost all country require in intertional transaction and the US has control over it. Now that the digital version is going to go in the air, will that amount of control go under it? For example with the Ukraine and Russia war that dollar is in scarce quantity in the soil of Russia, can the digital version also be controlled to be limited in a particular area/country just as in the situation of war or invasion as the precent situation?

[Despairo]

They won't offer lower transaction fees

CBDC will have a difficult time to overcome the many obstacles and skepticism most will have towards it.

CBDC is centralized, so the fees should much lower than the decentralized one since they can control it. Perhaps, they charge some additional fees on such requirements e.g. fees for inactive accounts, fee to convert etc.

Nope, if government officially announce on television and news about CBDC, citizens will automatically trust it. Moreover if they got forced to use CBDC and they forbid of using cash.

Knowing that people prefer convenience on top of security/reliability/decentralization

Who said this? I disagree. People don't care with those you mentioned above, all shitcoins have low security/not reliable/centralized but people tend to choose shitcoins because they're looking for pump and dump. How I can say this? because shitcoins won over Bitcoin, Bitcoin dominance is 41,9% while the rest percentage (58,1%) is shitcoins. If they care with those stuffs, they will buy Bitcoin, not shitcoins.

IMO CBDC wouldn't have any impact with Bitcoin since the value is $1=$1 pegged with dollar.

[Wexnident]

I don't think it's going to make any difference at all tbh, maybe set up global payments or something to make it easier and some other niche qol improvements, but that's about it. Its core idea isn't really any different from fiat, so it shouldn't be a threat to crypto. Heck, it even actually improves the tracing of what and where funds go (that uses it), so basically the government is improving it's ways to track how our money is spent and where it actually goes.

It's just fiat put into a computer, not much is gonna changer.

[kidbounty]

the impact is almost non-existent. after all digital dollars will not enter the crypto market. it will only be used as a means of payment, maybe in the end it will only be like E-money and cannot be used to buy crypto. and one thing i know, it is not a crypto coin and will not be called an altcoin/stablecoin.

[sana54210]

CBDC is no different from fiat money, all provided and controlled by the government, it will even be more strictly regulated than the current way of circulating fiat.
We love cryptocurrencies not because they are convenient but because of their decentralization. I don't think people will give up crypto because of CBDC.
Crypto have opened up a convenient digital world, certainly countries are working to come up with their own CBDCs for each country.
Until they come up with regulations to crackdown on crypto to force people to accept CBDC, but it is not possible to completely ban cryptocurrencies.

It is wildly different from fiat money. Of course it is centralized, but which stablecoin are you using that is decentralized. Sure maybe there are few like DAI, but the reality is that we have plenty like USDT that are mainly centralized.

This is why it is not same as fiat, if you could put CBDC into an exchange and make profit from that, then it means that we are talking about something decent and profitable for the traders to use CBDC instead of tether. I am not saying that we will all do that, all I am saying is that there is a chance we may end up doing this. This is why I believe that we should not be really upset over it right away without seeing it first.

[PhoenixZephyrus]

I really doubt it would affect anything related to bitcoin a lot in the long run. Sure, in the short term people might prefer its conveniences, but hell - use cash/netbanking stuff at that point? Because US Digital Dollar - whatever that may be - it sure as hell wont be decentralized. It probably also won't offer the same benefits as bitcoin - for which people actually choose bitcoin. I'd say the general mass that has already adopted bitcoin will stick with it, and most other people would be indifferent?

I guess one of the factors coming into play here is that it would probably be much more stable, realistically speaking compared to bitcoin, so it might find more use in the day-to-day life of people - for buying goods, products, just general shopping. Fixing prices in bitcoin is still a hassle at the moment, its been fluctuating quite wildly. A digital US dollar might help in that aspect, and maybe bitcoin is pushed a bit more towards being an asset for speculation?

[darewaller]

I don't think it's going to make any difference at all tbh, maybe set up global payments or something to make it easier and some other niche qol improvements, but that's about it. Its core idea isn't really any different from fiat, so it shouldn't be a threat to crypto. Heck, it even actually improves the tracing of what and where funds go (that uses it), so basically the government is improving it's ways to track how our money is spent and where it actually goes.

It's just fiat put into a computer, not much is gonna changer.

You are thinking about it like it's paypal, think about it like it's currency and you will see a lot more options. First of all there could be some payment accepting of it a lot easier than crypto, so instead of considering it as payment processor, think of it as payment. It is officially governments money right? So, it has absolutely no difference between regular dollar you hold in your hands in that case, which means you can pay with it to any place you go.

Now imagine someone makes a connection of automatically turning bitcoin to this digital dollar, in that case you can carry just crypto in your pockets and when you want to pay, it will automatically be accepted everywhere around the nation.