ㅤ

[Symmetrick]

ㅤ

[NeuroticFish]

Historically, compared to the moment of the last halving, this should be a period when the price goes down without hopes for recovery.
One guess would be that traders are aware and afraid of that possibility, hence overly cautious, no matter how many news-that-should-pump are coming out.
It may be one of the moments when the price can break the known cycle... or not.

The hash rate keeps going upwards and I expect pretty soon the miners look more carefully to the price they sell at and maybe decide to risk and hold.
The currently grim geo-political status is also one of the the moments people distrust fiat the most.

Still, I can't tell what's going to happen next. I agree: everybody seems to look around cautiously and wait to see what's going to happen next so they can just follow the trend.

[davis196]

It seems that the stars are aligned for a Bitcoin price pump,but there's isn't any event,that could cause the beginning of a FOMO wave.Such event would be another Bitcoin ETF or maybe some major corporation adopting Bitcoin(just like Tesla,Paypal,Microstrategy,etc.).
A FOMO wave is a situation,in which the BTC sellers stop selling their Bitcoins and start buying and the BTC buyers start buying even more BTC.There is a "snowball" effect in this process,but there's no event,that can trigger this "snowball" effect right now.Greed should dominate over fear in the "Fear vs.Greed" index,which isn't happening right now.
The global inflation and the war in Ukraine created some kind of uncertainty and many traders are still afraid to take risks.

[el kaka22]

I believe that people are not sure if this war should impact it the good way or the bad way for bitcoin and that is the problem people are having. I mean it should be looking not so bad, but it should also have some sanction passing methods as well. So, people do not know how to approach it.

Maybe west will hate crypto next, who knows? Or maybe people will love it because of Ukraine donations?

Basically, we are stuck between few thousand dollars and go up and down and there is nothing serious and obvious that would make it go one direction. If it was just one deal, then we would have gone that way but we all know that it is multiple options available right now.

[adaseb]

What is holding Bitcoin back is the high inflation, end of tapering and beginning of fed rate increases. Even today JPow hinted that they might do 50bps rate hikes if required and the stock market took a huge dump and at the same time Bitcoin followed.

Right now it’s highly correlated with stocks. So with more rate increases it will have a hard time going up. Especially with how bad it is with inflation right now. The last rate increase was only 25bps due to the war in Ukraine. If that war never started then the last weeks rate hike would be 50 bps instead of 25.

[stompix]

Quite an interesting situation. I constantly monitor various on-chain metrics and analytics from major data providers. They have been reporting for months that the circulating supply is declining and that there are fewer and fewer bitcoins on the exchanges. Recently, Glassnote published fresh data that clearly shows that the bitcoin's exchange balance has fallen to record lows in the last 3 years.

I would take the data coming from Glassnode with a ton of salt, they have a long history of really screwing statistics up simply because they want to show you something that they have uncovered, like that time I will never forget where they claimed the Paypal news was the reason for an increase in volume when if you zoom out it was just the usual Sunday-Monday difference at that time.
Second, it might be possible that some exchanges have moved a lot of coins from their addresses to new and smaller more manageable cold storage wallets, for example, Coinbase had,  according to some pretty reliable news exceeded 1 million coins in storage, yet there was no label anywhere on those addresses, nobody knew them, not glassnode not chainanalysis.

But this does not affect the price. She doesn't seem to be affected by any news at all. Reductions in the circulating supply, the adoption of bitcoin in the Swiss city of Lugano also went unnoticed by the market. Also, the tweets of Elon Musk and Michael Saylor that they are not going to sell bitcoin and that now is the time to invest have no effect either.

This indeed is a bit weird, I honestly thought that the Lugano news would fuel up the price a bit more, we were on a trend to erase losses from that crash, there were positive bits here and there that should have succeeded in moving the market. Looking back, the fake amazon news, even with the consequent retracement did push the price higher than all these combined.

I think we're in for a long period of nothing when something really major must happen! But since I'm also more wrong than right on prediction one can get ready for a rollercoaster too.

The global inflation and the war in Ukraine created some kind of uncertainty and many traders are still afraid to take risks.

I think we're looking at the wrong indicator by looking at volume and traders, traders are not long terms holders, they make their profits and they dump it, looking for something else, a better indicator would be the amount of $ flowing into changes, but that's one thing we will never know unless some major one gets hacked.
It might be that the lack of coins on exchanges is actually balancing a low demand too.
Or that simple some traders who were doing arbitrage or scalping are simply giving up and moving to more volatile markets.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I guess it's a waiting game for investors now, sort of feeling it out, if they see that there is buying around then they will jump on the gun and doesn't want to miss out things. But if the market is what we are seeing right now, then obviously not much is going tot happen. There should be some kind of catalyst that needs to surface to make the investors pour their money again and push the price to maybe $50k at least.

[dbc23]

At the moment investors are on the waiting end to see the next move of the trend. There have been no significant recovery after the last dip. We only had a shallow pump in match. For now no speculation on the next move is accurate until a new trend is formed and maintained. All the bullish news trend that was expected to cause a spike made no difference which is an indication the bears aren't exhausted yet.

[Silberman]

I believe that people are not sure if this war should impact it the good way or the bad way for bitcoin and that is the problem people are having. I mean it should be looking not so bad, but it should also have some sanction passing methods as well. So, people do not know how to approach it.

Maybe west will hate crypto next, who knows? Or maybe people will love it because of Ukraine donations?

Basically, we are stuck between few thousand dollars and go up and down and there is nothing serious and obvious that would make it go one direction. If it was just one deal, then we would have gone that way but we all know that it is multiple options available right now.

I think this is creating uncertainty in the markets, the possibility of Russia using bitcoin to at least lower a little bit the strength of the sanctions imposed against it represent a risk for bitcoin, as the US and other European countries may use this as a way to attack bitcoin once again and try to destroy it once and for all, so people are nervous about the future of bitcoin and are taking a wait and see policy, which is not very conductive to massive growth.

[Johnyz]

At the moment investors are on the waiting end to see the next move of the trend. There have been no significant recovery after the last dip. We only had a shallow pump in match. For now no speculation on the next move is accurate until a new trend is formed and maintained. All the bullish news trend that was expected to cause a spike made no difference which is an indication the bears aren't exhausted yet.

Bull trend are more possible now, investors are just waiting for the right signal and if the price reach $43k, I can assume that bull is here and the price will start to fly high again. The war is still the reason for holding back, but since peace talk are possible happen and many adoption happened, bull will happen as well.

[DOH!]

I see it not as a restraint but a sustained bullish momentum in the long term... bitcoin has rallied from $34,000, but has yet to see a short term macro rally due to many  intermediate market management measures such as war, Fed interest rates, etc.  Bitcoin has already started to react from demand at $42k - assuming bitcoin now breaks out of the winter bear market and begins its bull cycle again, that's no surprise

[KennyR]

Since 2021 there is good volume of bitcoin being accumulated. Around the range of $20k institutional investors like MicroStrategy, block, made big accumulation even earlier. Those volumes were still under the accumulation status. Those outflown bitcoin being under the status of hold until now there is parabolic curve formation. Similar parabolic curve formation took place when the price of bitcoin was around $8000. By then there happened bitcoin reaching its ATH. For now this can be a beginning point for a new ATH in comparison to the previous similar incident.

For now it is the institutional investors, small scale investors and the ongoing acceptance and increasing usage is the one that holding back the price.

[STT]

The recent highs for BTC are near to the 50 week average which is not resistance but indicative of a full price recovery from the lows.   We are bullish I think, we had a good reaction previously to the 50 day average as on this chart and its risen since passing that:


So long as we maintain above the 50 day average it should mark general bullish action.   I would not state price action as being held back but developing over time.

[lornadane]

Since 2021 there is good volume of bitcoin being accumulated. Around the range of $20k institutional investors like MicroStrategy, block, made big accumulation even earlier. Those volumes were still under the accumulation status. Those outflown bitcoin being under the status of hold until now there is parabolic curve formation. Similar parabolic curve formation took place when the price of bitcoin was around $8000. By then there happened bitcoin reaching its ATH. For now this can be a beginning point for a new ATH in comparison to the previous similar incident.

For now it is the institutional investors, small scale investors and the ongoing acceptance and increasing usage is the one that holding back the price.

It's most likely true as you said that this is the beginning of a new ATH for bitcoin price rising back to $55k price.
And now there is also a lot of other growth for bitcoin to rise again like bitcoin adopters in several countries and this is also a sign that bitcoin is increasingly needed.

[Ararbermas]

So long as we maintain above the 50 day average it should mark general bullish action. 

yep, as long as it respecting the 50 day average it will always maintain the bullish trend. But of course since there's no enough demand in the market on this current situation, fluctuation is always expected after making higher highs.

And if this isn't fake news for sure it a big help for the growth rate of bitcoin aside the adoption in other countries. Terra (LUNA) Co-Founder Reveals Massive $3,000,000,000 Bitcoin (BTC) .

[buwaytress]

Which only strengthens my opinion that it's still retail strength, not institutional, that moves the market, at least in shorter or medium term instances that are more noticeable. These are fundamentals, ever increasing, ever growing, regardless of market situations. The last crash we had, for example, or the last ATH for that matter -- all happened regardless of use, security (hashrate and difficulty), upgrades, adoption, which continue to strengthen Bitcoin with every passing day.

Price support, market floors, I guess are what benefit the most from fundamentals. Whether or not price fulfills potential is still down to average Joe in numbers as he either ignores or is ignorant of fundamentals (altcoin markets also prove this).

[Untomabur]

If according to technical analysis, the price of bitcoin is currently still in a safe zone to enter the bullrun again,
it is currently experiencing a decline because at the price of $45000 it is a heavy resistance from Bitcoin,
3 times the price of $45000 has failed to penetrate, I hope this decline is a healthy correction , and Bitcoin can break through $45000 again.

[aruldaroy]

If according to technical analysis, the price of bitcoin is currently still in a safe zone to enter the bullrun again,
it is currently experiencing a decline because at the price of $45000 it is a heavy resistance from Bitcoin,
3 times the price of $45000 has failed to penetrate, I hope this decline is a healthy correction , and Bitcoin can break through $45000 again.

For sure it will happen $45000 will still be reachable by bitcoin price for this month or next month.
Every decline that occurs there will be a reciprocal correction in the future.

[GreatArkansas]

(.....)
Bitcoin seems to be stuck in some kind of weightlessness, in uncertainty, or it is deliberately restrained and strong price movements are being prepared for some specific news or event that should happen soon. Who thinks about this?

For me, these past few weeks and now, the price of Bitcoin is normal. Because I can also relate this even on the stock market, even if you will see, most of the markets now are neutral, no huge dumps or pumps same with Bitcoin.
Volumes of Bitcoin to exchanges decreasing is a positive for me, less inflows of Bitcoin to exchange is good for me and more outflows.

Since February I have really expected these kinds of price movements for Bitcoin, more sideways are expected for the coming months.

[pooya87]

They have been reporting for months that the circulating supply is declining and that there are fewer and fewer bitcoins on the exchanges.
But this does not affect the price.

That's because similar to hashrate, the relationship with price is in the opposite direction. Meaning when price stabilizes and/or market becomes risky and unpredictable (like these days) there will be less incentive for day trades to trade bitcoin ergo they pull their bitcoins from exchanges.

Also, the tweets of Elon Musk and Michael Saylor that they are not going to sell bitcoin and that now is the time to invest have no effect either.

Evidence has been suggesting that the community no longer pays attention to "celebrities" who make statements about bitcoin specially if this is not their first attempt.

if there is some kind of impulse, then the selling pressure very quickly nullifies the entire bullish impulse and returns the price back to the values ​​that were before the impulse.

This is one of the main issues preventing the rise back to normal. This is fueled by the increased number of shorts, where essentially market manipulators borrow bitcoin to dump and prevent the rise from happening. It will only stop when their losses surpass their incentive to manipulate. That can take time.

The other big reason is the uncertainty of people who are too afraid to buy bitcoin because of the drop it had and the large amount of FUD they've been fed over the past months.