I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year

[Hydrogen]

At a certain crude oil tipping point, it will become more cost effective to use vegetable oil in flex fuel diesel vehicles, than actual diesel. More affordable to convert vehicles to biogas or electric, than stay on gasoline. As oil prices rise, consumers will seek alternatives. Some might sell cars and trucks to buy electric scooters and attach a trailer to the rear to haul groceries and cargo. Fossil fuel based transportation isn't a global monopoly, although it is a dominant demographic. These price hikes will incentivize competitors to fossil fuel based transportation to expand.

The post industrial age era saw people trade their horses for automobiles.

If oil prices soar high enough, we could perhaps live to see people trade automobiles for horses and ostrich pulled carts.

[Sithara007]

$300 per barrel is too unrealistic. It may go up to $150-$200 in the short term. And most of us are forgetting the fact that the Russo-Ukrainian war is only one of the many factors behind this spike. The main reason for the increase in crude oil prices is the replacement of Trump by Biden as the US president. Even before the war, the prices were close to $100 per barrel, due to energy policies from the Biden administration. For the US, it is not going to be of much concern. They produce most of the oil that they consume. But that is not the case with the EU, Japan, China, India.etc. These countries need to import much of their oil from the OPEC and an increase in prices mean a big hole in their respective budgets.

[Tony116]

$300 per barrel is too unrealistic. It may go up to $150-$200 in the short term. And most of us are forgetting the fact that the Russo-Ukrainian war is only one of the many factors behind this spike. The main reason for the increase in crude oil prices is the replacement of Trump by Biden as the US president. Even before the war, the prices were close to $100 per barrel, due to energy policies from the Biden administration. For the US, it is not going to be of much concern. They produce most of the oil that they consume. But that is not the case with the EU, Japan, China, India.etc. These countries need to import much of their oil from the OPEC and an increase in prices mean a big hole in their respective budgets.

Looks like you're right! You remind me of what former president Trump said during the 2020 presidential campaign. He made accurate predictions about the gas price we would pay if Biden became president. I still prefer the way Trump is president than Biden. If he were still the president of the US perhaps the war between Russia and Ukraine would not have happened.
The US is one of the 10 countries with the largest oil reserves in the world, if the war does not end seems that the EU will be the one to suffer the most.

[fillippone]

Looks like you're right! You remind me of what former president Trump said during the 2020 presidential campaign. He made accurate predictions about the gas price we would pay if Biden became president.

Ah! Trump may have made accurate predictions for gas prices, but for the wrong reasons. I am not from the US, so I don’t dare to say which president I like the most, but I wouldn’t use Trump as a benchmark of fair reasoning while Russia is involved.

[stompix]

If oil goes to 300$, it would mean that gas prices in Europe will hit 4 euros, right now at 2 euros per liter half is tax half is oil (including manufacturing, etc, etc) but let's say 4, just for fun, the exact the same thing will happen in India or Turkey.
Now at 4 euros per liter, how many people will drive around? How many people in India will afford to buy one tank of gas when that will be the average wage worth? Obviously, a lot will cut gas consumption, when the demand goes lower, what will the price do?

When the price goes up, what will some producers who have higher costs do other than increase production, there are thousands of mothballed wells that were losing money even at 100$ per barrel, they will turn them back on, increasing offer, what happens with the price when there is increased offer?

Now, let's assume Russia will cut oil exports, how is China, the biggest oil importer going to react other than invading Manchuria and Siberia?
Let's go with the Russian propaganda, that China will get cheap oil from Russia, then, what are other oil exporters that currently make 85% of Chinese imports going to do other than sell to other countries?



That's a scenario-based n Russian propaganda how hurting Russia will hurt the global economy.
The 1.2 Trillion gas station will ruin the 85 Trillion world if they are not left alone while invading bombing and killing people.


 

[fillippone]

That's a scenario-based n Russian propaganda how hurting Russia will hurt the global economy.
The 1.2 Trillion gas station will ruin the 85 Trillion world if they are not left alone while invading bombing and killing people.

Summarising, we Europeans are in a very bad situation, as we decided to rely on plants and animals dead millions of years ago to power our society, instead of using more modern ways of producing energy (nuclear included).
We are paying the bad choices we made a few decades ago.

[stompix]

~

Summarising, we Europeans are in a very bad situation, as we decided to rely on plants and animals dead millions of years ago to power our society, instead of using more modern ways of producing energy (nuclear included).
We are paying the bad choices we made a few decades ago.

Small correction, we decided to rely on dead animals that died beyond our borders!  Stupid dinos!
Anyhow, although something will absolutely be done, from new power sources to probably and hopefully some much needed castration in the eco-terrorist media and groups, it's going to take a lot of time, I was just going through some numbers, 280 million vehicles in Europe, 1 million BEV sales last year, one decade won't do a thing.

Oh, and part of the stupidity is that the governments have got used to getting billions in gas taxes, imagine we wouldn't have those in place! 

[fiulpro]

I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year ,what do you think ?

Russia produces 11,262,746 barrels per day of oil (as of 2016) ranking 3rd in the world, which represents about one eighth of the amount of barrels of oil produced globally, which is estimated at about 88.4 million barrels per day in 2020.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/265203/global-oil-production-since-in-barrels-per-day/#:~:text=Global%20oil%20production%20amounted%20to,at%20around%2095%20million%20barrels.
https://www.worldometers.info/oil/russia-oil/#:~:text=Oil%20Production%20in%20Russia&text=Russia%20produces%2011%2C262%2C746%20barrels%20per,reserves%20(as%20of%202016).

We know that even if Russian oil is banned, the country may continue to export it to some countries, most notably China. Therefore, it is unlikely, at the present time, that we will witness prices above 200 dollars per barrel.

This rumor might be true if Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to stop exporting, which is almost impossible.

Additional to that Russia will continue to export to at least 5 countries considering their proposal to India as well where they offered to provide them oil/ Gas at a really reasonably low prices which does mean that they would be willing to provide such offer to other countries as well who will be willing to go forth with it.
Therefore 300 is definately going to be an over exaggerated estimate, at the same time there are other countries as well who would be willing to take over this export opportunity since the inflation is already on the floor due to the pandemic as well, which does mean that government would have numerous opportunities to take over this through the renewable sources pulling the price down also it's not that hard there are certain trees as well which can produce fully functional oil even diesel for cars, there ofc not going to take over the production but it just extends to the fact that there is so little rescarch regarding the non conservative sources of energy and this can provide a fast response on that section making it better for the whole community in the long run..

[Ultegra134]

I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year ,what do you think ?

Highly unlikely. The only scenario where I see this happening is in case of an European ban from Russia Oil.
This would send the Brent/WTI barrel to the moon because of Europe should anyway buy the displaced Russian oli elsewhere.

As an European, I do hope this scenario will never materialize.

I'm also afraid of this scenario, there are rumors of that Europe was having discussion in order to ban Russian imports. It would be the worst case scenario, it would send oil to the moon. Europe is importing 3 million barrels per day, that's a huge number that can't be replaced if lost.

[Gozie51]

I'm also afraid of this scenario, there are rumors of that Europe was having discussion in order to ban Russian imports. It would be the worst case scenario, it would send oil to the moon. Europe is importing 3 million barrels per day, that's a huge number that can't be replaced if lost.

It won't send Oil price to the moon if Russia is cut off from selling to EU if OPEC do a proper arrangement to members for them to increase supply and moreover Russia will still continue to sell to Asian countries which will reduce the demand from Asian countries. So I think it will still be a win and lose situation for EU/NATO and Russia consecutively. All the effort is to stop Russia from continuous invasion. The Ukraine president still asking for more sanctions and that is the reason for this Oil embargo on Russia.

[||bit]

I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year ,what do you think ?

You had said it’s the rumour,so you need to worry then. The trade of barrels was already increased.But the price which you had mentioned was not the real one.So the trade of barrels happened with different price in different  country.The county which was silent for the war and neutrality.The getting barrels at less then a old price,this is the move to increase the support towards them.

[Sithara007]

Russian crude has once again hit triple digits, which means that they have found sufficient number of buyers from China, India and some of the other countries. Brent Crude is currently trading at $121 per barrel. The Russian crudes are trading at the following levels right now: Sokol at $104 per barrel, ESPO at $91 per barrel and Urals at $93 per barrel. There is still a discount of around 20% to 30% for the Russian crude, but there seems to be sufficient demand to keep the Russian treasury full. And even at a discount, the price of Russian crude is more than what it was before the invasion.

[Lizzylove1]

I don't think crude oil will go as high as $300/barrel. Some nations that are friendly with Russia will start buying their energy at a discounted rate and this create some kind of price crisis in the market, ensuring it's not over priced.

[Tahsin Kabir Kollol]

We all know that this kind of news is mainly the result of various sanctions centering on the war in Russia and Ukraine. Russia's oil embargo would significantly reduce global oil production and supply, leading to a sharp rise in oil demand. On the other hand, oil production is being disrupted due to the attacks of Huthi rebels on Saudi Arabia, one of the richest countries in the world. Such oil crises are also exacerbated by Western sanctions, including the United States, on a number of oil-rich countries, including Iran and Venezuela. On the other hand, since the modern world cannot be imagined without oil, such false information can be implemented as accurate.

[Ultegra134]

Russian crude has once again hit triple digits, which means that they have found sufficient number of buyers from China, India and some of the other countries. Brent Crude is currently trading at $121 per barrel. The Russian crudes are trading at the following levels right now: Sokol at $104 per barrel, ESPO at $91 per barrel and Urals at $93 per barrel. There is still a discount of around 20% to 30% for the Russian crude, but there seems to be sufficient demand to keep the Russian treasury full. And even at a discount, the price of Russian crude is more than what it was before the invasion.

Despite the sanctions, Russia won't be affected the slightest bit, even if there's an embargo against their oil exports. There are plenty of other markets to channel their trades, hurting Europe in the long-term. India and China, being their largest importers, are also two superpowers in terms of financial strength, keeping Russia's economy intact.

Even if Europe imports oil from Venezuela or Iran, it will be more expensive and I said earlier, will hurt Europe (and its citizens) in the long-term.

[STT]

I've thought 200 dollars a barrel was going to happen sometime sooner or later anyway but removing Russia supply makes it quite reasonable.   I dont know 300 is especially realistic beyond a spike but in any case the Russia oil will leak out somewhere just like Iraq oil did similar a long time ago, its not likely that we do not see the oil at all just that supply is restricted and done with reduced price for type probably.   Certainly we are in a period of extended high price oil, not sure these higher price targets happen exactly eg. usa has alot of spare capacity etc.

[Sithara007]

Despite the sanctions, Russia won't be affected the slightest bit, even if there's an embargo against their oil exports. There are plenty of other markets to channel their trades, hurting Europe in the long-term. India and China, being their largest importers, are also two superpowers in terms of financial strength, keeping Russia's economy intact.

Even if Europe imports oil from Venezuela or Iran, it will be more expensive and I said earlier, will hurt Europe (and its citizens) in the long-term.

I have said this before. It is stupid for the Europeans to boycott petroleum products from Russia. Russia is the closest source for crude oil and natural gas, as far as Europe is concerned. If they want to source these products from anywhere else, freight charges involved will be very significant. And honestly, Iran and Venezuela don't have spare capacity to replace Russian oil production. On top of that, the production in these two countries have been impacted by many years of sanctions and embargoes from the United States.

[Mauser]

I heard a rumor that OPEC will go 300 USD / barrel this year ,what do you think ?

Not an expert on oil pricing, but to me 300 USD per barrel seems too much. Consumer would go crazy with such prices at the gas station. The oil price went from 70 USD in January to around 120 USD now, so it wasn't even a 100% increase yet. Going to 300 would mean 300% from January, it's too much. The problem I see the higher the price will go, the more pressure will be put on Opec to increase production which will bring prices down again. Also if the oil price will be long time above 200 USD it's very lucrative to go back and trade with Russia cheaply.

[Tony116]

Despite the sanctions, Russia won't be affected the slightest bit, even if there's an embargo against their oil exports. There are plenty of other markets to channel their trades, hurting Europe in the long-term. India and China, being their largest importers, are also two superpowers in terms of financial strength, keeping Russia's economy intact.

Even if Europe imports oil from Venezuela or Iran, it will be more expensive and I said earlier, will hurt Europe (and its citizens) in the long-term.

I have said this before. It is stupid for the Europeans to boycott petroleum products from Russia. Russia is the closest source for crude oil and natural gas, as far as Europe is concerned. If they want to source these products from anywhere else, freight charges involved will be very significant. And honestly, Iran and Venezuela don't have spare capacity to replace Russian oil production. On top of that, the production in these two countries have been impacted by many years of sanctions and embargoes from the United States.

Yes, even if Iran and Venezuela accept to return to increase oil production to replace Russian supply, it will be very difficult to do. Their oil industry was frozen and forgotten for many years due to the embargo from the US, it took Venezuela several years to restore the plants and proper management to restore their oil industry. This is clearly the wrong decision of the European government and the people of these countries will have to bear it all.

[Ultegra134]

Despite the sanctions, Russia won't be affected the slightest bit, even if there's an embargo against their oil exports. There are plenty of other markets to channel their trades, hurting Europe in the long-term. India and China, being their largest importers, are also two superpowers in terms of financial strength, keeping Russia's economy intact.

Even if Europe imports oil from Venezuela or Iran, it will be more expensive and I said earlier, will hurt Europe (and its citizens) in the long-term.

I have said this before. It is stupid for the Europeans to boycott petroleum products from Russia. Russia is the closest source for crude oil and natural gas, as far as Europe is concerned. If they want to source these products from anywhere else, freight charges involved will be very significant. And honestly, Iran and Venezuela don't have spare capacity to replace Russian oil production. On top of that, the production in these two countries have been impacted by many years of sanctions and embargoes from the United States.

Yes, even if Iran and Venezuela accept to return to increase oil production to replace Russian supply, it will be very difficult to do. Their oil industry was frozen and forgotten for many years due to the embargo from the US, it took Venezuela several years to restore the plants and proper management to restore their oil industry. This is clearly the wrong decision of the European government and the people of these countries will have to bear it all.

Only time will tell, I believe that chances of a Russian embargo are extremely high, governments want to act like they're taking action against Russia, that's why they imposed sanctions, just for show. Even if the Russian production is eventually replaced by other countries such as Venezuela, it will cost higher than it was to import from Russia