Do you agree market behavior has changed?

[ariinv]

There are many tools and indicators all traders use to predict the market and buy and sell assets! When most people use the same tools , there is no more competitive advantage between them and everyone one will act the same! They receive the same signal and same prediction! Thus there is no contrast in the market technically , we believe the market is not running technically like before and we are expecting major changes , What do you Think?

[mk4]

There are just so much indicators that we really can't make a conclusion entirely. But in general — if a certain indicator gets too crowded and traders end up trying to frontrun each other both(or either) at the buy/sell side, then the sort of "expected" market movement gets a lot less dramatic than anticipated, or it could move totally against them. A perfect example for the latter being a short squeeze[1].

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp

[mindrust]

There are many tools and indicators all traders use to predict the market and buy and sell assets! When most people use the same tools , there is no more competitive advantage between them and everyone one will act the same! They receive the same signal and same prediction! Thus there is no contrast in the market technically , we believe the market is not running technically like before and we are expecting major changes , What do you Think?

Market behavior is the same as it always was. It goes up, down, sideways... Some people claim that it sometimes go backwards but I haven't experienced this so far. Maybe they are high on something I don't know.

This discussion is very old but if every was making the same trades, nobody would buy the other side of the trade. As you realize, there are always some people who stay on the opposite side of your position.

So no matter how advanced the new indicators are nowadays, the game is still unchanged. Up, down, sideways...

[ariinv]

Thank you So Much for your kind attention and reply! I am talking about trading, for example daily trading. I agree there are gamblers in the market as well that just buy and sell sentimentally , but if you monitor the market since November again you will see there is not any clear trend and technically most of the indicators do not work properly! Maybe it is a war signal and the market predicted that , but it is an event not a trend, right?

[ariinv]

There are just so much indicators that we really can't make a conclusion entirely. But in general — if a certain indicator gets too crowded and traders end up trying to frontrun each other both(or either) at the buy/sell side, then the sort of "expected" market movement gets a lot less dramatic than anticipated, or it could move totally against them. A perfect example for the latter being a short squeeze[1].

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp

Dear MK

As you mentioned short squeeze is an unusual fact , I agree with you market behaving unusual! What do you suggest for such an unusual market!

[GreatArkansas]

This is still difficult to identify and can't be guaranteed 100% as most of the traders use multiple indicators or tools.
Another thing to consider is why we have stop-losses, which will be our savior if ever our technical analysis will invalidate.
Also, the fundamental part, is that such news or natural events can cause some market behavior, especially in just a short period of time.

[mk4]

Dear MK

As you mentioned short squeeze is an unusual fact , I agree with you market behaving unusual! What do you suggest for such an unusual market!

Short squeezes are an "unusual" market behavior but it doesn't automatically mean that it only happens in "unusual" markets. Short squeezes also occur on more sort of "established" markets like the U.S. stock markets.

An example, GameStop(GME): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GameStop_short_squeeze

[The Cryptovator]

Not all traders work the same way, that's the reason why all traders aren't profitable always. Every trader has different strategies to make money. And not many traders use tools for trading as well. So I don't think market behavior changed. A lot of things related to the market, a lot of psychology works on the cryptocurrency market. So nothing changing except using the latest tools. Some traders just see the candles like me those don't use any tools. However, I can't say market behavior changed just for a few tools. There will be always losses and gainer.

[taufik123]

Do not assume that traders use the same indicator, there are many indicators even hundreds of indicators and some indicators combined with other indicators will not be the same. there will be a lot of technical analysis development, looking at the strategies used and also combined with fundamental analysis.
Market behavior remains on the corridor, up and down and a lot of FUD and FOMO will affect the market.

If some indicators do not work well, you need to study them again and of course other indicators you should also understand. Trading Trends are not only on indicators, but on market conditions, the state of the world economy and many other factors that can influence them.

[Woodie]

There are many tools and indicators all traders use to predict the market and buy and sell assets! When most people use the same tools , there is no more competitive advantage between them and everyone one will act the same!

If everyone is using the same trading tools it actually shifts the advantage to the market makers who can easily manipulate the markets in such a way that will give these tools a buy or sell signal when in reality it's all manipulation to gift the whales/market makers cheap coins.

They receive the same signal and same prediction! Thus there is no contrast in the market technically , we believe the market is not running technically like before and we are expecting major changes , What do you Think?

Btw use of same trading tools by traders has no connection with competitive advantage as this race isn't among traders themselves but the markets.

[JunkieMiner]

In the case if traders are in a same way that they are predicting many of the coins that they will rise to a certain price and they also predict the price will fall to a certain price then they had already got some analyzing or critical point about that coin or whatever the coin they are predicting about may or may not be according to their prediction, so that is the point in these prediction strategies.

[ariinv]

This is still difficult to identify and can't be guaranteed 100% as most of the traders use multiple indicators or tools.
Another thing to consider is why we have stop-losses, which will be our savior if ever our technical analysis will invalidate.
Also, the fundamental part, is that such news or natural events can cause some market behavior, especially in just a short period of time.

Very good Point ! Stop-losses are our savior's ! When algorithms and robots trade for us we should always expect a flash crash!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_flash_crash

Not all traders work the same way, that's the reason why all traders aren't profitable always. Every trader has different strategies to make money. And not many traders use tools for trading as well. So I don't think market behavior changed. A lot of things related to the market, a lot of psychology works on the cryptocurrency market. So nothing changing except using the latest tools. Some traders just see the candles like me those don't use any tools. However, I can't say market behavior changed just for a few tools. There will be always losses and gainer.

Thank you but Consider a Navigation application , if most of the drivers use same navigation application , that application can cause traffic jams anytime.
If Most of the market, in particular robots and algorithms traders, use same sources for importing data and use same metrics to evaluate the market then the same will happen, we can not deny that , I am talking about majority of people , if it was not the reason how flash crash and short squeezes should happen?
it is true stop-losses are always our saviors but even stop-losses are not 100% secure! based on my experience.

[palle11]

we believe the market is not running technically like before and we are expecting major changes , What do you Think?

Nothing has changed in the market itself . The only thing that has changed is the way you view the market from your perspective. Usually when we start making errors or mistakes in market or trade then we think that the market has changed but it has not. The indicators are still what they are, the charts still doing what they are doing. Rather we need some break to restrategize and make a come back.

[ariinv]

Exactly , I am talking about same issue. Artificial Intelligence and algorithm trading make a same perspective for every one, this is what I am afraid of

[Hamphser]

There are many tools and indicators all traders use to predict the market and buy and sell assets! When most people use the same tools , there is no more competitive advantage between them and everyone one will act the same! They receive the same signal and same prediction! Thus there is no contrast in the market technically , we believe the market is not running technically like before and we are expecting major changes , What do you Think?

It was never been competitively advantage since from the start because market is really just totally unpredictable but somewhat i do have able to notice it out that technical indicators are gradually able

to bite unlike before where price could easily fucked up technical analysis no matter how good it is but now when years do pass by then it is really somewhat on the point that it do really follows
or it is really relevant on making out and you would able to notice that when you are an old trader which do make out some technicals comparing back into the past to the present.

[ariinv]

Thank you so much !

Agree with you totally, We are spending lots of time coding pine script and python then evaluate different metrics and evaluate the market , our robots decide to sell or buy and then a false signal changes the game. Since there is no predictable trend , it was not like that before from 2017 till last November we had a predictable market but since November everything has changed, I just would like to know where we are going now?

[boyptc]

About the "competitive advantage".

Is there really a need to think that there's a competition in trading? Whether you and everyone uses the same techniques and indicators, it doesn't make sense to think that you're all competing. There's the advantage because you know what to do when you have those indicators but it's not needing to think about competitive advantage or whatsoever.

It doesn't really matter whether all of you uses the same style or not because there will always be the difference in trading indicators for all traders.

[royalfestus]

According to onchain analysis, a lot had changed and there may be a little divergence from previous cycle movement. Since 2019 the price movement had been different. we have series of accumulation and no end of the cycle accumulation like in 2018, and this follow with capitulation in short period from the accumulation. More than 60% bitcoin had been unmoved in the last 15 months which is unprecented after a bull market, also bitcoin on exchanges keep reducing and more tools in market analysis are failing.

[henmark]

If you say market behavior, then there isn’t really anything that is changing about the market behavior, because it is always going to be the same movement that it has been making right from the beginning which is to go up and down or stay stable at some point. Unless what you are trying to talk about is the strategies that people are using to predict the movement of the market.

Strategies do change, sometimes the strategy that you are using to predict the market can sometimes not work as you expected to have worked out for you. Which is why you have to keep on updating yourself. That’s why you are being taught that there is no perfect strategy, you just have to keep working on yourself every time and knowing what is up to date.

[Franctoshi]

The market behavior is still the same but does behaves with a different historical data so it's left you to go back in time to determine which past years historical data it's trying to mimic or behave like because in Technical analysis history does not only repeat itself but it rhymes.