Bitcoin Breakout

[VikingMaster]

Bitcoin is in the process of generating a breakout today (Sunday). A close today above 44569 will be the highest close in over 2 months and will break a triple top that has been built during this time in that area. Bitcoin is presently trading at 46667 at 7:00pm Sunday. The next resistance area is at the 50,000 level. Nonetheless, this breakout is a signal that the downtrend is over, meaning that now the bulls can buy with more confidence.

[Alisha-k]

Bitcoin is in the process of generating a breakout today (Sunday). A close today above 44569 will be the highest close in over 2 months and will break a triple top that has been built during this time in that area. Bitcoin is presently trading at 46667 at 7:00pm Sunday. The next resistance area is at the 50,000 level. Nonetheless, this breakout is a signal that the downtrend is over, meaning that now the bulls can buy with more confidence.

There could either be a breakout or a retest but if a breakout then an advantage but else a retest then it will fall a bit lower. But i think there is a higher chance of having a new high of $50k level within the week following the long dip so far. But there is no clear indication showing the down trend is over

[VikingMaster]

Well, let me say that I have been a chartist for 47 years and I was trained by the best (Merrill Lynch and Pru-Bache) and for the past 14 years I have had my own service with subscribers and my chart readings have been proven over and over again to be quite good.

The charts say that this move up does end the recent downtrend. This does not mean that an uptrend is beginning (it could be a sideways trend) but new and negative fundamental news is needed to restart the downtrend. Until that happens (and I don't see anything on the horizon that could be a catalyst for that........in fact, the contrary), the charts say that for now Bitcoin will go sideways or higher.

On a daily closing basis, support will now be found at the 42000 level.

[franky1]

making charts for X years does not make you a bitcoin expert on price.
especially if you think that the only variable in trends is the social drama speculation.
"fundamental news" does not make social drama any more important by putting the word fundamental next to news

social drama is only temporary. and not a good measure of bitcoin value or state of direction which the price might go mid/long term

social drama sometimes impacts the price but only lasts a few hours/days.
but also speculators might see negative news, predict a dip, and thus themselves go on a selling spree to extend the dip, or even buy up coin to reduce the dip, thus you cant always count on how much negative drama will affect the price, if at all, in some cases negative social drama actually raises the price

so try to also find in the most important variables.. some ACTUAL fundamentals
EG the mining cost.

each region of the planet has different mining costs.
you can easily calculate and plot the prices and look at the support and resistance zones.

for instance american mining is more expensive than the asian/slavic regions. and so depending on the price, people in america switch from mining to buying, or buying to mining.
thus creates one of the support/resistance zones

you can also work out the very most expensive mining. the point where no one wants to buy coin any more because even the most smallest hobby miner in the most expensive mining area can mine for profit. thus finding the point of ultimate resistance (EG last years $70k)

you can also work out the very cheapest mining. the point where no one wants to sell coin any more because even the cheapest industrial miners in the cheapest mining area cant mine for less. thus finding the point of ultimate support (EG last years $20k+(~$35k in Q4))  (this summer it will be back down to $27k at current hashrate)

you can also look at the UXTO 'realisation value' and see how much coin last moved at which prices to roughly determine how much people value the coin they hold.
EG if X% last moved above current prices. then those people are strong holders.
EG if X% last moved many years ago. then those people are strong holders/lost coin.
vs
the amount of coin in the last 1-3 years last moved below current price


..
in short having a price chart with just the social drama 'fundamental news' is not a good charting model

[Ale88]

Nonetheless, this breakout is a signal that the downtrend is over, meaning that now the bulls can buy with more confidence.

I'm not 100% sure that the downtrend is over, no one can be sure about that, but what is impressive is that bitcoin is above $45k in this current climate. People complain about the price, they except $100k asap, blah blah blah, for me seeing bitcoin at this value despite the inflation and a war it's just crazy. Crazy good of course.

[mk4]

Nonetheless, this breakout is a signal that the downtrend is over, meaning that now the bulls can buy with more confidence.

When people are already making conclusions such this, I couldn't help but to be a lot more skeptical. 2 weeks of uptrend doesn't guarantee literally anything.

[cabron]

While we all expect the price to suddenly jump to $50K right now, it could possibly be going down for a day or two and then back to run upwards again just liquidating those in the futures. Remember that the market is unpredictable all the time so when the market is very obvious, it really is not normal. Anyone is waiting for a flash crash?

Ofcourse I could be wrong because I have already bought some at $42K. I wanted it to go straight up while the governments are making some fuzz in regulating it.

[Jating]

Bitcoin is in the process of generating a breakout today (Sunday). A close today above 44569 will be the highest close in over 2 months and will break a triple top that has been built during this time in that area. Bitcoin is presently trading at 46667 at 7:00pm Sunday. The next resistance area is at the 50,000 level. Nonetheless, this breakout is a signal that the downtrend is over, meaning that now the bulls can buy with more confidence.

Just because we have a break out means that the down trend is over. It is too early, and you have to look long term though. We are still in March and many things can happen.

If you are not aware of, Terra project have plans of buying bitcoin, billions of it.

The founder of Terra network, Do Kwon, has announced that they will be purchasing bitcoin to serve as their reserves.

https://bitcoinist.com/terra-luna-will-buy-10-billion-worth-of-bitcoin-heres-why/

So in the next 2 months there will be pumping bitcoin market, it's just the question what the negative effect on the market after they are done.

[fzkto]

Yes, bitcoin made a breakout today and if it proves to be true, it could mean a new up cycle has begun. What I like the most is that it is a good new green week and a new monthly candle should appear very soon. Many people, including me, thought that April would be good for cryptocurrencies. I hope that is true.

[pooya87]

The downtrend has been over for a long time but the things that aren't not over yet are:
1. The FUD that is still going on although at a decreased size about all the "bans", "energy consumption", "PoW bad", "flippening",... fooling the brainwashed people into staying away or selling their valuable bitcoins.
2. The uncertainty is still in the market among the participants who are still wishing for a lower price so that they can make a bigger profit while being uncertain about the rise that is obviously happening.
3. The shorts and the fact that those who are going against the market trend haven't yet reached their loss threshold despite huge losses they've sustained.

I think there is a good chance that we see a big green bar very soon as the FOMO buying begins.

[Uang_kartal]

about the break out, hopefully it's not false and can penetrate the ath you mentioned, the technical side of the analyst makes a lot of perceptions and assumptions that make these faults produce several methods. I'm sure it will be exciting in q2 (april) the green trend will sparkle.
if friends are discussing halving as for post, power and quality that will be repaired by the network, I agree and support it. I am not the only bitcoin keeper, I believe in the future and all developments in cruptocurency I have witnessed, I read there are more from 40 million confirmed bitcoin addresses and potentially more

[Ale88]

1. The FUD that is still going on although at a decreased size about all the "bans", "energy consumption", "PoW bad", "flippening",... fooling the brainwashed people into staying away or selling their valuable bitcoins.

If there is one sure thing is that FUD won't stop anytime soon, especially "organized FUD" because too many times I've seen a lot of bad news against bitcoin coming out all together, sometimes even using old news mixed with new ones just to create more confusion and fear. Honestly, I don't even care anymore, but for the new ones, well, it's not easy dealing with that.

[STT]

Weekly bars matter most and we've had one single weekly bar above the 50 day average and we are running right into the 200 day and the 50 week.   There is no absolute certainties but these two measures show why it will take more then a week above a positive momentum indicator to be sure BTC is now bullish.
   The most likely outcome as always is there exists a mix of buyers and sellers and we have to develop for a longer period to gain enough energy to break upwards especially.   For large movements upwards we are basically talking about an imbalance for whatever reason why buyers outweigh any doubts, any forced sales and retraction in leveraged money.   Normally traders must sell, they borrow the money and the trade must be closed so a constant cycle is normal and we first likely to see this occur.   We'll retract and I hope rise back higher.

[NeuroticFish]

Nonetheless, this breakout is a signal that the downtrend is over, meaning that now the bulls can buy with more confidence.

When people are already making conclusions such this, I couldn't help but to be a lot more skeptical. 2 weeks of uptrend doesn't guarantee literally anything.

The fear and greed index is accurately showing that people are leaning towards greed again.
So I'd expect more such "deep analysis" come out as long as the price looks good.
But we're in speculation area. Don't be too harsh, I've seen worse and I guess that you too.


All in all, shouldn't the fiesta start much closer to the last ATH? I fear we're rushing it a little and we'll get out Margaritas before we have the real party...

[btc_angela]

Nonetheless, this breakout is a signal that the downtrend is over, meaning that now the bulls can buy with more confidence.

When people are already making conclusions such this, I couldn't help but to be a lot more skeptical. 2 weeks of uptrend doesn't guarantee literally anything.

The fear and greed index is accurately showing that people are leaning towards greed again.
So I'd expect more such "deep analysis" come out as long as the price looks good.
But we're in speculation area. Don't be too harsh, I've seen worse and I guess that you too.


All in all, shouldn't the fiesta start much closer to the last ATH? I fear we're rushing it a little and we'll get out Margaritas before we have the real party...

Yeah, fiesta should be around $60k'ish before we can all celebrate again and get out our Margaritas and have some fun.

So it's a long way to go before we can see that price again, so the best thing to do is a wait and see attitude again. Who knows, maybe after a break out run of $50k the market suddenly goes bearish as speculators are selling again because they know that the price will have a hard time going up and thinks that we are still in the bears territory despite this initial break out run this year.

[davis196]

A 50K BTC price at the beginning of April would be great.During the entire winter season,I've had a positive feeling about the Bitcoin price in the upcoming spring and my gut feeling might be right.Of course,a Bitcoin price level of 45-50K USD might be temporary and the price might drop back to 40K,if major FUD news appear out of nowhere(probably USA or Russia).
I'm not one of bullish maximalists,who are expecting 100K,250K or a million dollar Bitcoin price.We should be happy with a 50K price.Greed is always a bad advisor,just like fear.
 

[GreatArkansas]

What a coincidence. If you can observe too, the monthly candle close is fast approaching too. I am thinking if this is a bull trap or a breakout indeed, but I am more confident with the latter.
The month of April is a very good month for the bulls for sure especially if we will breakout the $50,000 this month.

[Poker Player]

I'm not one of bullish maximalists,who are expecting 100K,250K or a million dollar Bitcoin price.We should be happy with a 50K price.Greed is always a bad advisor,just like fear.

LOL. I expect those prices, what happens is that I do not expect $1M in 6 months, but we will gradually reach those prices, I am sure of it, and it is not a matter of greed or fear. It is a matter of fundamental analysis. Today there is nothing better than Bitcoin to store and transfer wealth, especially in large quantities. And bitcoin is even more useful in the environment we find ourselves in, with rising inflation, tax hikes and governments with a tax collection drive that borders on confiscatory.

Regarding the OP, I hope to see more of his predictions around here to see if he gets it right more times, showing that it is true that he is a good chartist.

[maydna]

Finally, bitcoin is back at $47k today, and this is a great moment as many of us are already buying bitcoins at low prices. Many of them sold bitcoins at a price now and made a profit. But I think some are still holding their bitcoins because their target has not been achieved.

Those who haven't bought bitcoins at the last low price can buy them now or wait until the price corrects. But don't be sad if the price can't get back below $45k because it probably won't get back there. But if the price is back there again, it's a good time for them to buy it.

[VikingMaster]

For many, many years I have this conversation/debate about charts vs fundamentals but since I have not had that conversation here, let me give you the salient points.

Charts do not analyze or predict anything. What charts do is show what the "people-in-the-know-with-the-big-money" are doing. These are the people that know more than you or I know and their buying (or selling) is showing what they think and more importantly "where they are putting their money and at what price"

Fundamentals are always the basis for everything but fundamentals are only "in play" a few times a year. Computers, algorithms, traders and even investors are checking the charts as to where the big buying and selling is found and they are buying and selling "daily" and that is what makes Bitcoin go from support to resistance and back.

By reading the charts, I can see what those people in the know are doing and given they know more than I do about the fundamentals, I would rather "follow the knowledgeable money" than try to evaluate the fundamentals myself.

In that respect, charts are very dependable given that Computers, algorithm, and chart traders are all going to be buying at X point and selling at Y point, unless fundamentals change (perhaps a few times a year). No one person can move any market but when you have a big money group "all" buying and selling at certain levels, the chances of success are much higher. In simple words, by reading the charts, I know where these big traders will be buying and will be selling "automatically.

Reading charts is not easy but when you have done it for 47 years and have seen hundreds of thousands of charts, you would be amazed at how things get cleared up substantially, and the important thing is that the product does not matter (it could be stocks, indexes, commodities or crypto). Human nature is the same everywhere.