Bitcoin - Projected Bottom and Halving

[ImThour]

Hey Everyone,

Drawings on Chart:
Bottom - Green Line
Peak - Red Line
Halving - Yellow Line
200 MA and 50 MA are being used.



Does anyone notice the halving occurs in the center of where Bottom Starts and Peak Ends?

2011 to 2013, Halving happened in 2012 which was the center of that period.
2015 to 2017, Halving happened in 2016 which was the center of that period.
2018 to 2021, Halving happened in 2020 and if we consider the 69k ATH as a Peak, we see the halving is in the center once again.

Projected Bottom -
It is calculated on the basis of average number of days it previously took to reach Bottom from the Peak.

4th Halving Projection -
The date is from this source: https://www.deltecbank.com/2022/02/28/bitcoin-halving-2024/

Let me know what you think about this.
Thanks!

[1715311910]

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[pooya87]

Did you also notice that the second cycle was 43% longer than the first cycle and the third cycle has been shorter (incomplete)?

What I think is that this cycle was incomplete. For example if we go on based on the duration this cycle should end (the bubble) at least by the end of this year. If we go by size, the bubble should be $450k at least.

so the only conclusion I have made is that the 4-year cycle trend is either broken and we are seeing an entirely new trend ahead of us or there are still some months left (maybe 6+ months) in it to reach that bubble and burst final stage.

[ImThour]

Did you also notice that the second cycle was 43% longer than the first cycle and the third cycle has been shorter (incomplete)?

Yes, that's also a thing to notice.

According to some people on TradingView, this might be in this order: 750, 1050, 1350 as the market is never Linear.
Let's see how this executes but whatever the case, we are real close to the peak.

For example if we go on based on the duration this cycle should end (the bubble) at least by the end of this year. If we go by size, the bubble should be $450k at least.

Didn't you noticed that the growth rate has declined a lot?

1st Phase: 349x
2nd Phase: 82x
3rd Phase (Current): 18x

[Lucius]

Didn't you noticed that the growth rate has declined a lot?

1st Phase: 349x
2nd Phase: 82x
3rd Phase (Current): 18x

It is quite expected to me that this growth has decreased, it would be quite unrealistic to expect that phase 3 has, say, 50x growth. Some may disagree, but making 5x when the price was $500 was far easier than it is at the moment given that we have been above $20k for a very long time, and $100k seems pretty far at the moment.

so the only conclusion I have made is that the 4-year cycle trend is either broken and we are seeing an entirely new trend ahead of us or there are still some months left (maybe 6+ months) in it to reach that bubble and burst final stage.

It seems to me that it is broken, because if we look at the beginning of 2018 and the starting price of about $14 000 and the fact that by the end of March 2018 it decreased by 50% - the current situation is different and suggests that we may not have a long crypto winter. It seems that breaking the wall at $45k, which lasted as long as 3 months, completely opened the way up - now the only question is where is the next obstacle?

[crwth]

I can't wait to have a complete chart of this with the green line finding its base. The rightmost green line should have its base again and then determine how long and how much it could raise in price when it's nearing halving.

Also, there is no valid movement with the two moving averages, so maybe when it crosses one another, it would be a bullish sign.

Let's wait until October, then??

[bitgolden]

I can't wait to have a complete chart of this with the green line finding its base. The rightmost green line should have its base again and then determine how long and how much it could raise in price when it's nearing halving.

Also, there is no valid movement with the two moving averages, so maybe when it crosses one another, it would be a bullish sign.

Let's wait until October, then??

I do not think that it will go on until October, it will probably happen a lot earlier than that. Doesn't mean that it "will" happen before or during or after October (well technically sometime after October for sure). But that usually means that we should not be expecting something that is certain on a certain date, but it could probably not happen that quickly.

I just assume that it would have a great increase during this spring, it looks like we are already going high, 50k+ is right there and it could happen and after that we should be seeing something a lot better and faster. That is usually a big increase for the time being, but if it breaks 50k then 60k can come quicker.

[adaseb]

I don’t know if the top was in November or if this cycle will extend itself by perhaps going to $75-80K before dropping. However I do think that the 200 WMA which is what you have on your chart is a good area for a generational long.

It has never closed below it and did wick under it during the covid scare. It is also trending upwards so depending on how long we stay in this area the 200 WMA might be in the $20-25K which is a great area for a long term cold storage position play.

[TheBeardedBaby]

I think we need more time to determent whether we are heading to the bottom, but my feeling is that the bottom is not anywhere near yet. There's still momentum to go up.

After the big money came to play with all those institutional investors the previously working good indicators now does not trigger the same events as before.

The last check was the Bitcoin dominance over alts failed to play as expected and we went in the downmarket even tho we had a high volume to sustain it.

I have doubts now that after China is out of the mining picture that the halving will have the same effect on the price and bull runs as it used to have before.

I just Hodl, seems the best practice for now.

[buwaytress]

If we consider 69k as the peak yeah, but the more weeks pass in this year without dipping below 50% of ATH (to me, psychologically), the less likely it seems we won't rally near or above 69k.

Supercycle repeat likelihood also lowers every day now approaching March 2024 (estimated halving). Bitcoin's not used to being so bullish this far away from previous halving (or this close to the next).

[hugeblack]

Personally, I prefer to see things in reverse.

 - The price goes contrary to expectations. When optimism prevails, the price decreases and vice versa.
 - Now, most of us are not optimistic about the price, so I expect an increase to occur.
 - The downside trend for all sessions was that the price did not drop from the previous top, and therefore the price of 20K was the bottom and still is.
 - We still have some time, which is the tallest 4 months, to make sure that the price will reach 100,000 or not.

It will be almost impossible for the bitcoin to reach the price of one million dollars within 4-7 years, and therefore the current cycle is the last, and then we will witness growth and reach stability if the price of the bitcoin reaches 10 trillion dollars.

[STT]

Almost impossible but quite probable on balance vs actions taken in US dollar which have greatly weakened it and will continue to further based on bond issuance and repayment schedule in future. 
   100 dollar used to buy a car, now its barely anything so the fixed values we view for pricing will change considerably by the time of future BTC cycles; it is possible when considering that entire picture.
Im more bearish then most but I did not think the ATH was the last high price we will see.  Some say it will occur this year, I do not but I would not say thats all in the past till block reward changes again.   The chart is useful for laying out waves and tides to price action and it is transforming not repeating exactly, anyhow the pattern is useful to observe.

[Beerwizzard]

Did you also notice that the second cycle was 43% longer than the first cycle and the third cycle has been shorter (incomplete)?

What I think is that this cycle was incomplete. For example if we go on based on the duration this cycle should end (the bubble) at least by the end of this year. If we go by size, the bubble should be $450k at least.

so the only conclusion I have made is that the 4-year cycle trend is either broken and we are seeing an entirely new trend ahead of us or there are still some months left (maybe 6+ months) in it to reach that bubble and burst final stage.

These cycles are different each time. Previously we had lots of ICOs that created a huge bubble. However, the latest growth was partly due to increased adoption and increased amount of institutional investors.
No one knows if we are currently in the bubble or if we should expect correction anytime soon but hopefully, during the last bull run we got more of "legit money" and this time we might not get a miltiple-year downtrend.

[Dhaniii]

I noticed the chart describes the moving parts in the next halving period. The case we see is the reduction of reward subsidies for bitcoin miners for the current year. In my opinion, the halving must be careful and pay attention to the prizes obtained with the operational costs incurred, because the transactions are still the same and have not been reduced at this time.

[pooya87]

Didn't you noticed that the growth rate has declined a lot?

1st Phase: 349x
2nd Phase: 82x
3rd Phase (Current): 18x

The problem here is that the first "cycle" wasn't fully formed and the market was very weird. The other problem is that the first one was accompanied with the biggest market manipulation that bitcoin has ever seen to its market (willy bot in Mt Gox that controlled more than 85% of the market share). I don't think the size of the first cycle is a reliable value.

I also like using the bottom to top for comparison, not the peak to peak. That makes the second cycle be a 133x rise (from $150 to about $20000) and this one a 21x rise (from $3200 to $69000). And that is a significant decrease.

[lixer]

Almost impossible but quite probable on balance vs actions taken in US dollar which have greatly weakened it and will continue to further based on bond issuance and repayment schedule in future. 
   100 dollar used to buy a car, now its barely anything so the fixed values we view for pricing will change considerably by the time of future BTC cycles; it is possible when considering that entire picture.
Im more bearish then most but I did not think the ATH was the last high price we will see.  Some say it will occur this year, I do not but I would not say thats all in the past till block reward changes again.   The chart is useful for laying out waves and tides to price action and it is transforming not repeating exactly, anyhow the pattern is useful to observe.

Unfortunately the us dollar is not the only currency that would be going down, it is basically the whole fiat world right now. If you think that 68k was not the last ATH we will see, then you are not bearish than most. People keep talking about death of bitcoin eventually, those are the real bearish people, there are idiots out there who are given a microphone in conferences and say that they know who satoshi is and bitcoin will be zero when that comes out.

We all know that he doesn't know but he is just bearish. The price reaching 100k is inevitable to me, maybe not this year, maybe not next year but "some day" it will be 100k, and that makes me feel bullish enough.

[suzanne5223]

The chart provided shows how Bitcoin replicates the same momentum which I believe may change in the next halving cause the market is experiencing significant growth and change in trend.

Unfortunately the us dollar is not the only currency that would be going down, it is basically the whole fiat world right now

I believe he/she uses US dollars cause it's the World's reserve currency and for those that said they know who Satoshi is. I wish it was that simple cause if the CIA, NSA, etc can't why would a single individual get Satoshi's identity.

[cryptoperkele]

I don't know. Last cycle behaved diffferently already and this pattern repeating once more would just be too easy. I see more likely that we would move more or less sideways for a while if not even mooning soon. People are too eager to wait for bottom again and bitcoin rarely does what anyone thinks of it. One interesting scenario would be mooning from here because that would crash so many ta:s out there.

[aoluain]

Didn't you noticed that the growth rate has declined a lot?

1st Phase: 349x
2nd Phase: 82x
3rd Phase (Current): 18x

It is quite expected to me that this growth has decreased, it would be quite unrealistic to expect that phase 3 has, say, 50x growth. Some may disagree, but making 5x when the price was $500 was far easier than it is at the moment given that we have been above $20k for a very long time, and $100k seems pretty far at the moment.

so the only conclusion I have made is that the 4-year cycle trend is either broken and we are seeing an entirely new trend ahead of us or there are still some months left (maybe 6+ months) in it to reach that bubble and burst final stage.

It seems to me that it is broken, because if we look at the beginning of 2018 and the starting price of about $14 000 and the fact that by the end of March 2018 it decreased by 50% - the current situation is different and suggests that we may not have a long crypto winter. It seems that breaking the wall at $45k, which lasted as long as 3 months, completely opened the way up - now the only question is where is the next obstacle?

Its interesting indeed to notice that the growth is decreasing kind of in line with an
increase in interest towards Bitcoin and a decrease in supply and this feeds into the
theory that this 4 year cycle trend is changing and adopting to other trends like supply
and demand.

The chart is very interesting and is a great visual on how the halving has fallen between
the previous bottom and the following top. If the incoming bottom lands around October
this year and the top happens sometime around September/October 2025 that will be
truly remarkable.

[GreatArkansas]

I love the chart. This is also what I really saw before, especially when I took a deep dive into learning the past historical prices of Bitcoin with of course special events like Bitcoin block halving. What most people mistake here is always exciting when there is a Bitcoin block halving, they always think that the effect will always come on the day or days near or after the Bitcoin block halving.  This chart clearly shows how the price of Bitcoin moves after a few months after/before the Bitcoin block halving.

[ImThour]

I love the chart. This is also what I really saw before, especially when I took a deep dive into learning the past historical prices of Bitcoin with of course special events like Bitcoin block halving. What most people mistake here is always exciting when there is a Bitcoin block halving, they always think that the effect will always come on the day or days near or after the Bitcoin block halving.  This chart clearly shows how the price of Bitcoin moves after a few months after/before the Bitcoin block halving.

Hey GreatArkansas,

If you liked the above chart, you will surely like this one too:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5392908.msg59748131#msg59748131

Let me know what do you think