How long Putin can continue this nonsense war?!

[ariinv]

War is the last chance for a politician to stay in power, how bad was the Russian economy that caused Putin political suiside? How long is it going to take to step down from power or do Russians underestand he is just a paper tiger?! I believe in less than three months Putin's kingdom is over , what do  you think?

[af_newbie]

War is the last chance for a politician to stay in power, how bad was the Russian economy that caused Putin political suiside? How long is it going to take to step down from power or do Russians underestand he is just a paper tiger?! I believe in less than three months Putin's kingdom is over , what do  you think?

He can easily continue for another 1-5 years. He will completely destroy the Russian army and economy, but I think it could be physically
possible to continue for while.
Provided he will sell it as an existential threat to Russia so that Russians will go along with the 18-60 military draft.

They have lost about 15,000 soldiers and probably 60,000 wounded in the first month.

But, I think they will progress a bit more carefully, so I expect the losses will be smaller, maybe 7,500 dead/month, and 30,000 wounded/month.

They lost about 600 tanks/month, so assuming they will continue losing 300/month for the remainder of the campaign, they can easily
continue for a few more years tankwise. Fighter jets might be an issue as they have lost over 100/month.

I think their critical resource is warm bodies.
So the success or failure of Putin's adventure will depend on how fast Ukrainians can kill Russians.

86% of the Russian public supports Putin's war, so he will not have any political issues for a while, IMHO.

Economically, I think he can bypass sanctions, with third-party countries, Kazakhstan, India, Afghanistan, African countries, and China.
Sanctions will lower his revenues, but for critical components, I think he will find suppliers that
will be willing to supply him with whatever he needs for the right price ($$$).

So, the bottom line is that his revenue will decrease, his expenses will increase, and his manpower will decrease long-term.

As for ordinary Russians, well, they will go back to the Soviet times. The older generation will be able to cope with it with no problem.
The younger generation will be shocked but will keep their mouth shut, and will be afraid to speak out.

Their standard of living will be that of Indians, Africans, or Chinese.

[laurenB7742]

86% of the Russian public supports Putin's war, so he will not have any political issues for a while, IMHO.

They support it because it is their fight for survival.

They may be exhausted by fighting and lose strength but if they do not fight then NATO will destroy them in the future.

NATO and the Western media are playing a major role in fueling this war. NATO and the United Nations can stop this war if they want but they do not want. The United Nations wants to gradually cripple Russia by creating economic pressure. Russia alone is not responsible for this war

[AmoreJaz]

86% of the Russian public supports Putin's war, so he will not have any political issues for a while, IMHO.

They support it because it is their fight for survival.

They may be exhausted by fighting and lose strength but if they do not fight then NATO will destroy them in the future.

NATO and the Western media are playing a major role in fueling this war. NATO and the United Nations can stop this war if they want but they do not want. The United Nations wants to gradually cripple Russia by creating economic pressure. Russia alone is not responsible for this war

both sides have their shortcomings, but seems that no one wants to give up their respective causes. unless, one of them will lower down their head, this can indeed go for months and months. and the most affected here are their respective people. don't know to what extent can putin sacrifice the future of his people. but if his people will unite to overthrow him, they possibly can.

[af_newbie]

86% of the Russian public supports Putin's war, so he will not have any political issues for a while, IMHO.

They support it because it is their fight for survival.

They may be exhausted by fighting and lose strength but if they do not fight then NATO will destroy them in the future.

NATO and the Western media are playing a major role in fueling this war. NATO and the United Nations can stop this war if they want but they do not want. The United Nations wants to gradually cripple Russia by creating economic pressure. Russia alone is not responsible for this war

If NATO is what endangers Russia, then go fight NATO or the US.

Why are you wasting your resources in Ukraine? Do you think you will be in a better position after you exhaust yourself in Ukraine?
What kind of logic is that? Your losses in Ukraine are $200-300M/day, 200-300 men/day.

"Po plan-oo" I guess, lol.

[Ultegra134]

86% of the Russian public supports Putin's war, so he will not have any political issues for a while, IMHO.

While I don't doubt you, I'd like to see the source for this number, it looks exceedingly high. During the first days of the invasion, Putin's actions were discouraged and sparked a few protests, which were quickly dealt with force.

Anyway, Putin isn't going to step down from his presidency, he won't stop till he gets what he wants, or lose everything in the process. It's surprising that an army like Russia's is having such a hard time against Ukraine, they're supposedly a superpower.

[Findingnemo]

Until he realize that what he did is enough because no one is going to fight against Russia for invading the Ukraine because every country only deals with sanctions against them but it didn't made the Russia to pull back and surprisingly he also made a tactical move that unfriendly countries has to pay in Rubles to buy oil from them so Russian economy will fall only if their oil exports stops but in reality China and India is enjoying the benefits now.

[aoluain]

86% of the Russian public supports Putin's war, so he will not have any political issues for a while, IMHO.

They support it because it is their fight for survival.

They may be exhausted by fighting and lose strength but if they do not fight then NATO will destroy them in the future.

NATO and the Western media are playing a major role in fueling this war. NATO and the United Nations can stop this war if they want but they do not want. The United Nations wants to gradually cripple Russia by creating economic pressure. Russia alone is not responsible for this war

If NATO is what endangers Russia, then go fight NATO or the US.

Why are you wasting your resources in Ukraine? Do you think you will be in a better position after you exhaust yourself in Ukraine?
What kind of logic is that? Your losses in Ukraine are $200-300M/day, 200-300 men/day.

"Po plan-oo" I guess, lol.

I think its fair to say NATO had just cause to have so many bases on the border with
Russia. If Russias leader can do so much damage to a non NATO country imagine
what would happen without those NATO bases.

How long will this Ukraine invasion last? IMO as long as Ukraine gets military support
it can resist so this coupled with the economic sanctions which wont be felt in Russia
fully for a number of weeks yet could determine how long it lasts, it could be months.

[Cryptmuster]

both sides have their shortcomings, but seems that no one wants to give up their respective causes. unless, one of them will lower down their head, this can indeed go for months and months. and the most affected here are their respective people. don't know to what extent can putin sacrifice the future of his people. but if his people will unite to overthrow him, they possibly can.

People will never be able to overthrow him, they are too much afraid of him, they are afraid to even say the word war, because for this they can be arrested. Now, when there is a rotation of russian troops and the cities of the Kiev region are being liberated, it is clear what atrocities russia arranges. On the streets there are dead civilians with their hands tied and shot in the back of the head, this is genocide. And this can go on for a very long time, russia has great resources.

[Makkara]

86% of the Russian public supports Putin's war, so he will not have any political issues for a while, IMHO.

They support it because it is their fight for survival.

They may be exhausted by fighting and lose strength but if they do not fight then NATO will destroy them in the future.

NATO and the Western media are playing a major role in fueling this war. NATO and the United Nations can stop this war if they want but they do not want. The United Nations wants to gradually cripple Russia by creating economic pressure. Russia alone is not responsible for this war

This is straight up Russian propaganda.

[coolcoinz]

NATO and the United Nations can stop this war if they want but they do not want.

Please explain how they'd do it.

Russia and Belarus stated that marching into Ukraine would be a declaration of war. It would be a much easier decision if there were no nuclear weapons because Russia cannot match NATO in conventional warfare, but nobody wants those idiots to start using bio weapons and nukes and render whole Europe uninhabitable.

He can easily continue for another 1-5 years. He will completely destroy the Russian army and economy, but I think it could be physically
possible to continue for while.

That's too long. Russia would run out of juice long before that. You have to remember that the economy is one thing, but there's also fighting spirit, which Russians always had when defending, but rarely when attacking. Many people in Russia think it's not their war and as time goes by and life gets harder there's going to be more and more of them, until finally all who wanted to fight will be dead and the rest will rather migrate than die fighting abroad for nothing.

[BADecker]

Better be careful. Putin's nonsense is setting him up to take over the world for a time. It's starting with the collapse of the USD.

Ruble on the gold standard might = $10,000 Gold & $370 Silver, Plus Some Really Shocking Numbers! - http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/News/323291-2022-04-02-10-000-gold-370-silver-plus-some-really-shocking-numbers.htm

[suchmoon]

That's too long. Russia would run out of juice long before that. You have to remember that the economy is one thing, but there's also fighting spirit, which Russians always had when defending, but rarely when attacking. Many people in Russia think it's not their war and as time goes by and life gets harder there's going to be more and more of them, until finally all who wanted to fight will be dead and the rest will rather migrate than die fighting abroad for nothing.

Or the tanking economy could push more people to sign up to fight because there is nothing else to do and it's the fault of the Ukrainians...

There is no logic to things happening in Russia now. People get arrested for holding flowers. State media is bleating incessantly about bird flu biolabs of the big bad West. A sizeable part of the population genuinely believes that they are defending. 140 million people, there could be enough idiots to feed this war for a long time.

Although the looting "armed forces" don't display much fighting spirit, that's true.

[be.open]

That's too long. Russia would run out of juice long before that. You have to remember that the economy is one thing, but there's also fighting spirit, which Russians always had when defending, but rarely when attacking. Many people in Russia think it's not their war and as time goes by and life gets harder there's going to be more and more of them, until finally all who wanted to fight will be dead and the rest will rather migrate than die fighting abroad for nothing.

Or the tanking economy could push more people to sign up to fight because there is nothing else to do and it's the fault of the Ukrainians...

There is no logic to things happening in Russia now. People get arrested for holding flowers. State media is bleating incessantly about bird flu biolabs of the big bad West. A sizeable part of the population genuinely believes that they are defending. 140 million people, there could be enough idiots to feed this war for a long time.

Although the looting "armed forces" don't display much fighting spirit, that's true.

Your problem is that although you understand the Russian language, you are extremely far from understanding the Russian mentality. The Russians need an external enemy, preferably a stronger one. Ukraine? "It's petty, Hobotov." But let's bring here the entire Western world united in a single anti-Russian impulse - this is already something to awaken Russia from its eternal procrastination and laziness, you can already work with this. And the louder the cry of anti-Russian rhetoric, the stronger and more effective Russia becomes. People in Russia do not believe in the lifting of sanctions if the aggression in Ukraine stops, so they say "okay, let there be sanctions, we will live with this." They do not take to the streets to protest like the inhabitants of Europe and do not try to overthrow Putin - on the contrary, his support is growing. Putin gave the people in Russia what was expected of him for a long time - he declared Russia's right to its own sovereignty in order to stop being a raw materials appendage and a gas station of the West. For the sanctions against the oligarchs in Europe, a special thank you from the Russians, they are not very loved here, ordinary people believe that the oligarchs have been robbing the country for decades and exporting the loot to the West. Well, now all the huge natural wealth of Russia belongs to Russia itself. Why would the Russian people berate Putin here? In Russia, Putin is now a folk hero, the "collector of Russian lands".

He can easily continue for another 1-5 years.

Lukashenko said that by the end of this year the world will forget about Ukraine. I'm not sure what exactly he meant, whether there will be a more serious problem in the world that will make Ukraine forget (as the operation in Ukraine almost made the whole world forget about covid-19), or just the problem in Ukraine will be resolved and cease to be such sharp and exciting the whole world, as now.

Let me tell you something else, it seems that in July the anniversary economic forum will be held in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Representatives from 69 countries and territories have already confirmed their participation in the SPIEF-2022 events: Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belize, Belgium, Benin, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Great Britain, Hungary, Venezuela, Ghana, Germany, Hong Kong (China) , Greece, Denmark, Egypt, Israel, India, Jordan, Iran, Italy, Yemen, Kazakhstan, Cameroon, Canada, Qatar, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, China, Colombia, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Mauritania, Malta, Morocco, Mexico, Moldova , Monaco, Mongolia, Namibia, Nigeria, Netherlands, Norway, UAE, Palestine, Republic of Belarus, Republic of Cyprus, Romania, USA, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Syria, Slovenia, Sierra Leone, Thailand, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Uruguay, Finland, France, Central African Republic, Switzerland, Sweden, Sri Lanka, Japan.

Everyone has the right to draw their own conclusions.

[Mr.right85]

The fight in the defence of one's nation cannot be seen as a nonsense war. It might seem so to you for Putin to have openly thrown the first punch but, its most likely that the first punch had been thrown long before Russia ever attacked Ukraine. Only a madman will attack a nation or animal without provocation and I don't consider Putin one. NATO's invite and Ukraine's willingness to make an alians with them is the provocation that hung unseen by most persons because they've refused to see it.
Unfortunately, Putin and the Ukrainians are ready to push this war as far as it could get but, I can only hope it ends soon and peace again be restored between both countries. War is not good for anyone and I am largely not in support of this one.

[KingScorpio]

this war is not just russia vs. west,

its much deeper its the same as syria vs. the west lybia vs. the west

in its core its about western officials creating hateful mobs in capital cities and using them to storm parliaments to change the regime instead of talking with the current regime

this prevents democracy in many parts of the world as those states cannot for financial reasons allow democracy

[blackened515]

Anyway, Putin isn't going to step down from his presidency, he won't stop till he gets what he wants, or lose everything in the process. It's surprising that an army like Russia's is having such a hard time against Ukraine, they're supposedly a superpower.

Why do we all put the whole blame on Putin. We must Firstly understand why Putin is going into war against their neighbor Ukraine. Ukraine are building strong relationship with US, they also wants to be part of NATO. Which Russia consider to be a dangerous step, because they don't trust the US. Putin thinks he is probably protecting his country. Although, Ukraine is an independent country, and they have the right to join NATO.  Putin just want the US to stay far from Ukraine, and the war won't end until his had achieved that.

[Majestic-milf]

War is the last chance for a politician to stay in power, how bad was the Russian economy that caused Putin political suiside? How long is it going to take to step down from power or do Russians underestand he is just a paper tiger?! I believe in less than three months Putin's kingdom is over , what do  you think?

He can easily continue for another 1-5 years. He will completely destroy the Russian army and economy, but I think it could be physically
possible to continue for while.
Provided he will sell it as an existential threat to Russia so that Russians will go along with the 18-60 military draft.

They have lost about 15,000 soldiers and probably 60,000 wounded in the first month.

But, I think they will progress a bit more carefully, so I expect the losses will be smaller, maybe 7,500 dead/month, and 30,000 wounded/month.

They lost about 600 tanks/month, so assuming they will continue losing 300/month for the remainder of the campaign, they can easily
continue for a few more years tankwise. Fighter jets might be an issue as they have lost over 100/month.

I think their critical resource is warm bodies.
So the success or failure of Putin's adventure will depend on how fast Ukrainians can kill Russians.

86% of the Russian public supports Putin's war, so he will not have any political issues for a while, IMHO.

Economically, I think he can bypass sanctions, with third-party countries, Kazakhstan, India, Afghanistan, African countries, and China.
Sanctions will lower his revenues, but for critical components, I think he will find suppliers that
will be willing to supply him with whatever he needs for the right price ($$$).

So, the bottom line is that his revenue will decrease, his expenses will increase, and his manpower will decrease long-term.

As for ordinary Russians, well, they will go back to the Soviet times. The older generation will be able to cope with it with no problem.
The younger generation will be shocked but will keep their mouth shut, and will be afraid to speak out.

Their standard of living will be that of Indians, Africans, or Chinese.

As far as his reign is concerned, I'm feeling he's nearing his end, but if it comes to the war, it will only lie on the ability of the Ukrainians and their ability to deplete the army of the Russians.
 Russia has the resources to continue this war if care is not taken to the next ten years or more but notwithstanding, their economy will be affected and as it is, over $600billion worth of shares has been seized by the US govt and what with sanctions being placed on them.

[PrimeNumber7]

Russia currently has ~75% of its military capacity committed to Ukraine. Russia maintains its nukes, however, committing that much of its military is risky and will leave it vulnerable to invasion and/or military action from elsewhere.

Those that are fighting do not believe in this war. I don't think many will believe in fighting for their homeland in the event of an invasion if that were to happen.

[KingScorpio]

putin simply things ukranians are being run by nazis and fasists and he has to help the russians there,

this didn't developed after putin got drunk in a bar in moscow, no putin was talking with western leaders about the surpression of russian autonomy in eastern ukraine over years.

russians will develop a very strong distrust between themselves and eastern europeans as they threat them like second class citizens in lands where they live since 1000 years.

its in principle the same conflict like the financial discrimination of black americans.