Understanding S2F Current Situation (Stock To Flow Model)

[ImThour]

Hey everyone,

I am sure most of you don't love predictions by any price model however this board is called Speculation for a reason, let's do it then.

Stock To Flow Model - 5th April, 2022 -

- Current S/F: 55.1
- Current Model Price Prediction: $112,322
- Next Halving Estimate: 758 Days




Alright, I hope I am not colorblind (Which I am surely not), I can see we are currently in this phase:


What generally happens when we enter this color band on the S2F?
I would say, a correction to get ready for the next bull run as Bitcoin will remain bullish forever in the long run.

Let me know what you think about this **speculation** in the post replies.  

[Wilhelm]

With S2F peaks happen in different color bands but the S2F line is the median.
The 100k is the median but I'm anticipating a surge above the line before we get to the next step.
So expect to get close or past 200k...

[ImThour]

With S2F peaks happen in different color bands but the S2F line is the median.
The 100k is the median but I'm anticipating a surge above the line before we get to the next step.
So expect to get close or past 200k...

Something to look at to confirm that we have peaked this bull run:


https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/miner-capitulation/

[mk4]

Something to look at to confirm that we have peaked this bull run:

https://i.imgur.com/SqFX2Lr.png
https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/miner-capitulation/

Not sure if it's a great idea to make conclusions based on that.

1. We didn't have a huge blow-off top like what we had the last 2 cycles
2. Something something past performance does not guarantee future results
3. We're in uncharted territory when it comes to markets in general

^Definitely not saying that we haven't topped though, because it's definitely possible that we already did. We just don't really know for sure. 🤷‍♂️

[ImThour]

Something to look at to confirm that we have peaked this bull run:

https://i.imgur.com/SqFX2Lr.png
https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/miner-capitulation/

Not sure if it's a great idea to make conclusions based on that.

1. We didn't have a huge blow-off top like what we had the last 2 cycles
2. Something something past performance does not guarantee future results
3. We're in uncharted territory when it comes to markets in general

^Definitely not saying that we haven't topped though, because it's definitely possible that we already did. We just don't really know for sure. 🤷‍♂️

Indeed but the whole point of TA is to predict future from the past.
And as the first line says of the post, it's a speculation not a fact.

[Wilhelm]

With S2F peaks happen in different color bands but the S2F line is the median.
The 100k is the median but I'm anticipating a surge above the line before we get to the next step.
So expect to get close or past 200k...

Something to look at to confirm that we have peaked this bull run:


https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/miner-capitulation/

We've had no FOMO. FOMO and dispair are the best indicators for the bull and bear markets.
So I firmly believe that due to all the shit in the last 4 years the ATH is still in the make...

[ImThour]

We've had no FOMO. FOMO and dispair are the best indicators for the bull and bear markets.
So I firmly believe that due to all the shit in the last 4 years the ATH is still in the make...

You really have a strong point which can't be ignored but what *If*, market is getting ready to compensate this run's FOMO in the next leg?
I find it a bit difficult to have a new ATH when it's just 750 days left for Bitcoin Halving.

[NeuroticFish]

I find it a bit difficult to have a new ATH when it's just 750 days left for Bitcoin Halving.

I'm not sure if this chart can correctly take into account the billions the institutional investors did pump and keep pumping into bitcoin.
I'm sure that this chart didn't take into account the special case of $10 billions that's flowing in more or less as we speak.

So while a new ATH may not happen (although that may also be debatable), at least the chances for a new capitulation/crypto winter may be smaller than in the previous cycles.
What you think? Am I so badly wrong?



Still, I appreciate the heads up, since we should hope for the best, yet, be prepared for the worse.

[ImThour]

I find it a bit difficult to have a new ATH when it's just 750 days left for Bitcoin Halving.

I'm not sure if this chart can correctly take into account the billions the institutional investors did pump and keep pumping into bitcoin.
I'm sure that this chart didn't take into account the special case of $10 billions that's flowing in more or less as we speak.

So while a new ATH may not happen (although that may also be debatable), at least the chances for a new capitulation/crypto winter may be smaller than in the previous cycles.
What you think? Am I so badly wrong?



Still, I appreciate the heads up, since we should hope for the best, yet, be prepared for the worse.

I agree that this chart doesn't take the current special case which you mentioned, Luna Foundation investing $10bn in BTC into the account.
The thing I am saying is, that ATH for this cycle is done already which was $69k. (Once again, a speculation of my own).

About the duration of capitulation, that is going to depend on the market itself.
What If we get a company like Apple sharing their Balance sheet of BTC purchase? that will change the whole story right.

Cheers!

[NeuroticFish]

What If we get a company like Apple sharing their Balance sheet of BTC purchase? that will change the whole story right.

Such a move might have only a short term speculative effect. What's done is done.
What may matter more is whether they  - no matter who "they" is, as long as it sits on a fat fiat balance - keep buying or not. If not, the current position in the 4-year cycle may matter more. For now, as we can see, at least Terra and Saylor keep buying.

[pooya87]

What generally happens when we enter this color band on the S2F?
I would say, a correction to get ready for the next bull run as Bitcoin will remain bullish forever in the long run.

I don't like S2F myself but you are ignoring 2 facts here.
1. You are ignoring the fact that price is below the main line representing the price that we should be at. And looking at the whole chart every time we are below it, there should be a big jump up not more drops!
2. You are ignoring the fact that we already had the "correction" when price dropped from $69k down to $33k meaning a 52% drop. That is not just a correction, it is a crash. Expecting more doesn't make any sense!

[Wind_FURY]

I personally was a doubter of S2F, then a believer, then after talking to some smart people, I have become a doubter again. The model assumes that scarcity alone will drive the price up, ignoring demand/or assumes that it will be the same forever. It's not very easy to accept in a practical sense.

[buwaytress]

Everything mk4 said is my feelings summed up since December: no blow off, no historic precedent. For me, the era of supercycle is over and that possible means the superwinter is also not likely. Just a meandering climb towards the top, somewhere, possibly with only halvings a predictable force for momentum jerks.

S2F(x?) had merits up until November and it's too soon to toss it away but might be some time before we meet the mean line again.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

S2F is in the bin if we’re honest. Plan B was predicting all kinds of bullish prices which we got nowhere near. I followed him like a disciple for years but I don’t listen to anything he says now. He blocked me on Twitter also, for suggesting it’s time to retire S2F

Don’t get me wrong, we will reach $100,000 but it’ll be in 2024 or 2025 after the next halving.

[ImThour]

S2F is in the bin if we’re honest. Plan B was predicting all kinds of bullish prices which we got nowhere near. I followed him like a disciple for years but I don’t listen to anything he says now. He blocked me on Twitter also, for suggesting it’s time to retire S2F

Don’t get me wrong, we will reach $100,000 but it’ll be in 2024 or 2025 after the next halving.

Thanks for being intelligent and optimistic at the same time.
And yes, S2F is no longer a metric to rely on. Lookintobitcoin.com has many more charts which are derived from on-chain data rather than predictions.

[adaseb]

Back in November people were expecting $100K Bitcoin and $250K by year end based on that model. So they didn’t sell because they believed it would come true and the peak happened at $69K. All the smart money sold while all the new adopters were holding for year end.

This is why you can’t trust the s2f model completely. It worked in the past but it doesn’t accurately predict future prices. If it was true Bitcoin would go to infinity pretty much and that obviously won’t happen. There needs to be a top somewhere.

[ImThour]

Back in November people were expecting $100K Bitcoin and $250K by year end based on that model. So they didn’t sell because they believed it would come true and the peak happened at $69K. All the smart money sold while all the new adopters were holding for year end.

This is why you can’t trust the s2f model completely. It worked in the past but it doesn’t accurately predict future prices. If it was true Bitcoin would go to infinity pretty much and that obviously won’t happen. There needs to be a top somewhere.

Correct, what I am using S2F is to make people realize that we are already done with ATH for this cycle and now, we are cooling off before starting another leg up.

[Wind_FURY]

S2F is in the bin if we’re honest. Plan B was predicting all kinds of bullish prices which we got nowhere near. I followed him like a disciple for years but I don’t listen to anything he says now. He blocked me on Twitter also, for suggesting it’s time to retire S2F

It's not that the model is flawed because the surge to $100,000 didn't happen. It's that the model was made under the wrong assumption that makes it flawed. It's also like saying BCash SV too will surge to $100,000 because of the halving of block rewards every four years.

Don’t get me wrong, we will reach $100,000 but it’ll be in 2024 or 2025 after the next halving.

$100,000 by 2024 is "on schedule" according to "the model", but it doesn't make it right because it's based on a wrong assumption.