Bitcoin Major Support Trend Lines

[ImThour]

Bitcoin Major Support Trend Lines

Bitcoin has always considered the previous ATH as the major support level in the next bull run.
We are currently below the support zone and this is a great buying opportunity if we look at the previous cycles.

If Bitcoin gives the next month candle closing (May Candle) below the major support, it will be the first time in the history of Bitcoin that two candles closed below the major support.
Not sure what the consequences will be.

[jackg]

2 consecutive candles closed below support in the 2015-2016 region though didn't they?

I'm not sure time (like months) is too useful of an indicator to use as cycles could be out of phase and what lasted 2.5 months last time could look like 3 months on current candles this time so they're not necessarily that helpful in spotting the difference in ONE - I think it's more reasonable to use at least 8-12 candles.

[NeuroticFish]

This looks halfway into the crypto winter we had in 2015-2016. And it doesn't feel even 10% as depressing as that one was for me (maybe also because it was my first crypto winter, I know).
On the other hand, in 2015-2016 crypto winter the price has dropped to ~13% of the ATH, in 2019-2020 the price has dropped to ~16% of the ATH, now we're only at 48% of the ATH... (of course, there's still time for getting lower, .. but not too much time actually...)

[pooya87]

This looks halfway into the crypto winter we had in 2015-2016. And it doesn't feel even 10% as depressing as that one was for me (maybe also because it was my first crypto winter, I know).

If this is indeed the "crypto winter" then we should already be at the bottom of it since considering the rise part leading to the "winter" was tiny compared to previous rises leading to previous "winters".
Which is probably why you don't find it as depressing.

On the other hand, in 2015-2016 crypto winter the price has dropped to ~13% of the ATH, in 2019-2020 the price has dropped to ~16% of the ATH, now we're only at 48% of the ATH... (of course, there's still time for getting lower, .. but not too much time actually...)

It is also worth noting that 2013 ended with a total of 7100% rise and 2017 ended with 13000% rise while 2021 ended with a total of 2000% rise.
Expecting same percentage drop makes no sense whatsoever! In fact 48% is already too much if we are comparing things.

[NeuroticFish]

If this is indeed the "crypto winter" then we should already be at the bottom of it since considering the rise part leading to the "winter" was tiny compared to previous rises leading to previous "winters".
Which is probably why you don't find it as depressing.

Indeed, it's also a valid point. The variation, at least in counted in percentages, is expected to decrease. (Would this mean we will no longer have actual crypto winters? Maybe..)

It is also worth noting that 2013 ended with a total of 7100% rise and 2017 ended with 13000% rise while 2021 ended with a total of 2000% rise.
Expecting same percentage drop makes no sense whatsoever! In fact 48% is already too much if we are comparing things.

I don't expect 8x like falls, still, 2x is far from those numbers and I'm happy it's that far, no matter where next ATH will be (or if it'll ever be another one).



My point was that although in the charts might look like a crypto winter, it seems/feels more "just a" drop, sorry (and yes, I do understand that it still hurts). And yes, the rise too was different (and smaller).

[ImThour]

2 consecutive candles closed below support in the 2015-2016 region though didn't they?

Yes they did however the second candle is literally a doji candle, I am talking about a momentum candle with some action.
Nice catch though

[yhiaali3]

Bitcoin negative weekly close below $46,600 so a rapid drop to 35,000-30,000$ may occur, this is one of the possible scenarios but no one knows exactly what could happen surprises, in any case every new drop in bitcoin is a good opportunity to buy again and hold until we get New ATH. There is a lot of positive news about Bitcoin around the world, and yet we see a continuation of the decline, which in my opinion is striking.

[adaseb]

Honestly even if Bitcoin went to the previous ATH of $20K and closed below it, it still is considered a good area to long for the long term.

Right now Bitcoin is very weak. Summer is approaching and I think we will chop around in a tight range. And maybe in Q4 we will break support or resume the trend upwards.

Too much market impact these days like inflation or rate hikes which makes Bitcoin attractive to most investors. Most people are being risk off these days and that’s not good for crypto.

[pooya87]

Indeed, it's also a valid point. The variation, at least in counted in percentages, is expected to decrease. (Would this mean we will no longer have actual crypto winters? Maybe..)

You raised a good question which I've been trying to find an answer to ever since last year but I'm afraid we can only know for sure after the trend changes for good. So far we are in a completely new trend where the rise was much smaller than previous bubbles and we are in what resembles a bear market but only a much smaller one.
One possibility could be that this trend be as short as it was small. Something like -50% over 6 months instead of -80% over 15-16 months.

[MinMan]

It is also worth noting that 2013 ended with a total of 7100% rise and 2017 ended with 13000% rise while 2021 ended with a total of 2000% rise.
Expecting same percentage drop makes no sense whatsoever! In fact 48% is already too much if we are comparing things.

I don't expect 8x like falls, still, 2x is far from those numbers and I'm happy it's that far, no matter where next ATH will be (or if it'll ever be another one).


My point was that although in the charts might look like a crypto winter, it seems/feels more "just a" drop, sorry (and yes, I do understand that it still hurts). And yes, the rise too was different (and smaller).

I agree, 2x is not that bad, it would be both above the ATH line AND still be realistic as well. That would be around 80k levels, above 70k and under 80k is not really unrealistic. When you consider a huge bull run, like reaching 200k, that would require amounts of money going into crypto that we haven't seen before.

Not because it is an increase, we had 5x and more before and it didn't take as much as it would take to do this, the reason is that it would be 200k, which means each time we try to go up, it would require more and more money to go up. The world is not really in a place where we could be investing that hardly into bitcoin, doesn't seem like people have that kind of money at this moment.

[NeuroticFish]

I've been trying to find an answer to ever since last year but I'm afraid we can only know for sure after the trend changes for good. So far we are in a completely new trend where the rise was much smaller than previous bubbles and we are in what resembles a bear market but only a much smaller one.

Since neither of us is Hari Seldon and we cannot predict what will the world do, we should not invest much energy into trying to find out what's next. History is easier to look back and describe.

As long as the known cycle is still in progress, I don't think that we can predict much. On one side, we tend to expect the history repeat itself, on the other we know that the investment patterns have changed and the charts may look way different. The "so far we are in a completely new trend" illustrates it best: we seem to be on a different trend, but the "so far" part guarantees nothing

[bubidan.id]

I see bitcoin closing price below the trend line or support area, there may be confirmation that it will fall to the support level below it and above I see a double top that strengthens the reason bitcoin will drop to the nearest support.

[Dhaniii]

from my view on the chart that the OP conveyed in 2021-2022 there is a closing of the second candle and the direction of the line is opposite to the close of the first candle in 2015-2016. whether the chart shows that the bitcoin market will experience a sharp decline in 2022 or the following year. I am a little confused by the understanding of the chart compared to many experts who assume that bitcoin will break through $100k in the next year.