Why mining calculators are GARBAGE

[Coinfarm ventures]

I've been a GPU miner since 2013. Here are 4 different times when I built rigs for mining Ethereum. Power cost was 10 cents.

• Late 2017: $220/card (RX 570 4G), 100-125% ROI
• Early 2018: $370/card (RX 570 4G), -50% ROI
• Early 2019: $140/card (GTX 1060 6G), 400%+ ROI
• Late 2021: $1300/card (RTX 3080L), 20% ROI

Here is what the mining calculators said:

• Late 2017: 400-500 days for payback
• Early 2018: 300 days for payback
• Early 2019: 600-700 days for payback
• Late 2021: 300-400 days for payback

What happened? The case in which I made the most profit was when Whattomine said it was the least profitable. When Whattomine showed rosy projections of payback in 1 year, I made the least profit.

The most important factor in profit, especially for GPU mining, is buying the equipment for a reasonable price, then selling it for a reasonable price later.

I think $425 for an RTX 3060 today is a decent price, considering PoS has been pushed back. Beware that the price was $600 just 2-3 months ago! There is no way anybody made $175 of mining profit in the last 3 months, even with free power.

So don't blindly trust the calculators!

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[MidNite36]

Hmm I think this makes sense, no matter how profitable a pool is you can end up getting better results on other pool that your calculator said to be less profitable than the first pool, I am well pleased with Viabtc no matter what calculators are saying, I have tested many pools and Viabtc gives me better result.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Hmm I think this makes sense, no matter how profitable a pool is you can end up getting better results on other pool that your calculator said to be less profitable than the first pool, I am well pleased with Viabtc no matter what calculators are saying, I have tested many pools and Viabtc gives me better result.

You are right that pools can make a small difference... but my point relates to the elephant in the room that most newbie miners can't see: resale value. Miners are far more likely to win in the end if they buy cheap cards during a bear market than buy expensive cards even early on in a bull market.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

How I wish you had also included the number of days it took for you to make ROI so that I would bring out a clear picture in comparison to what the mining calculator projected. Honestly, religiously following or believing what the mining calculator projects is unwise as there are so many factors that can come into play in a matter of weeks, such as changes in the network hashrate.

[rdluffy]

I think calculators are important to at least an estimate, just to have something to start for a beginner

I agree with you, buying price is important, and timing is also important

The calculators are very close to daily profit, 24h, but can't predict the week or montly hashrate, this part is up to you, it's hard to understand and people have to consider the fact that tomorrow people will put more cards to mine and the hashrate will increase, everyday, so you have to know that 1 dollar a day is not 31 dollars month, will be probably 28, 27 etc

[philipma1957]

I think calculators are important to at least an estimate, just to have something to start for a beginner

I agree with you, buying price is important, and timing is also important

The calculators are very close to daily profit, 24h, but can't predict the week or montly hashrate, this part is up to you, it's hard to understand and people have to consider the fact that tomorrow people will put more cards to mine and the hashrate will increase, everyday, so you have to know that 1 dollar a day is not 31 dollars month, will be probably 28, 27 etc

The key 🔑 is % of power cost to ⛏ income.

1000 mh of Rtx a4500 earns .0358 per mh or

35.80 earnings


burns 2300 watts or 55 kwatts a day.

at ten cent power 5.50

5.50/35.80 is ? percent
 
15.0 %

that is all a daily calculator does. and it will do that well.

next part is surfing or guessing that ratio.

btw 5 cent power

2.75/35.80 is ? percent.
 7.5%


btw both are great because mining eth is still very solid.

when power cost is 33% or 12 of 35.80 it begins to become nerve wracking

so if you are at 20 cent power cost you are a bit nervous since daily power cost is 11 out of 35.80.

the game does not allow true six month projection.  it a feel game.

i still feel eth stays pow until mining crashes.

this way no one can blame the switch for the crash.

[adaseb]

Mining calculators only estimate the expected profit based on the current day. Using the current price and current difficulty. They don’t estimate any future difficult or future prices.

The reason they were incorrect was because usually after a boom is a big bust. Hence why if you started at the top of the bull market your ROI was longer rather than starting at the beginning of the bear market.

Back in early 2019, nobody was mining, bitcointalk mining section was pretty dead.

[Metroid]

.....

Calculators are very precise for that current date and time, anything else the calculator or people assume will never be precise because nobody knows the future.

[Coinfarm ventures]

.....

Calculators are very precise for that current date and time, anything else the calculator or people assume will never be precise because nobody knows the future.

Actually, mining calculators can be wrong even for a 24-hour period. Difficulty on some coins such as FLUX can fluctuate by +/- 40% in a matter of hours. In these cases, profit switching is essential.

The key  is % of power cost to ⛏ income.

I try to choose a balance between efficiency and cost per Mh. That's why I like the RTX 3060 LHR cards. They can do 44 Mh combined at 140w for just $430 each. The Radeons are a one-trick pony that can only do ETH well. Higher end LHR has thermal pad issues.

[Metroid]

Actually, mining calculators can be wrong even for a 24-hour period. Difficulty on some coins such as FLUX can fluctuate by +/- 40% in a matter of hours. In these cases, profit switching is essential.

Yes, they can, reason I said that date and time, during a day things can change pretty fast and there are ups and downs many times, reason people use pools that check every 10 minutes the most profitable coin, many people dont bother about that, in the end if there is not a huge margin of gain, will be the same, your point is valid, can help newcomers to be aware of that.

[GEMIN_M4]

Imagine a crypto mining world without a calculator   

Those calculators have a big role to play when building a crypto farm, I believe that whattomine dot com is not a joke crypto calculator cos I have found that its the most accurate, other factors relies entirely on crypto market and thats not calculators fault.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Imagine a crypto mining world without a calculator  

Those calculators have a big role to play when building a crypto farm, I believe that whattomine dot com is not a joke crypto calculator cos I have found that its the most accurate, other factors relies entirely on crypto market and thats not calculators fault.

But the problem is these websites mislead newcomers into only caring about profit tomorrow. They don't have big bold red disclaimer text saying "Our calculations are only an estimate. Pay attention to the market value of your equipment".

If a newbie really wants to learn about the GPU mining market, they should create a feeBay account then look up historical GPU prices with the Terapeak seller tool. They should look at ETH revenue on Bitinfocharts over the past 5 years. I haven't seen a single mining calculator site put effort into taking account hardware price, let alone coin prices.

[philipma1957]

Imagine a crypto mining world without a calculator  

Those calculators have a big role to play when building a crypto farm, I believe that whattomine dot com is not a joke crypto calculator cos I have found that its the most accurate, other factors relies entirely on crypto market and thats not calculators fault.

But the problem is these websites mislead newcomers into only caring about profit tomorrow. They don't have big bold red disclaimer text saying "Our calculations are only an estimate. Pay attention to the market value of your equipment".

If a newbie really wants to learn about the GPU mining market, they should create a feeBay account then look up historical GPU prices with the Terapeak seller tool. They should look at ETH revenue on Bitinfocharts over the past 5 years. I haven't seen a single mining calculator site put effort into taking account hardware price, let alone coin prices.

Because mining is a bit of an art form. It is not pure science.

Guessing well helps.

was buying a 3090 for 2300 on july 1 2021 worth it yes it was.

it mined for three-hundred days and netted at least 6 a day or 1800

You can bet your bottom dollar It would sell for over 1000 so 2300 in and 2800 back 10 months later.

I I buy the same card new today it would be around 1750 an evga 3090 ftw3.

[JayDDee]

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Does that really need to be said? That disclaimer is a requirement for traditional investments that are stricty regulated.
Crypto is the old west, unregulated. Anyone who uses calculators to predict mining revenue is a fool.

In addition mining has a negative bias compared to direct investing. Mining revenue will always go down compared
to crypto prices due to a combination of block halving and higher difficulty driven by increasing hash rates.

Anyone can make money in a bull market, now it gets interesting.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Does that really need to be said? That disclaimer is a requirement for traditional investments that are stricty regulated.
Crypto is the old west, unregulated. Anyone who uses calculators to predict mining revenue is a fool.

Then it seems that there are a lot of fools out there when it comes to mining.

Anyone can make money in a bull market, now it gets interesting.

I agree, I really look forward to the bear cycle in order to get cheap video cards.

[YellowSwap]

Does that really need to be said? That disclaimer is a requirement for traditional investments that are stricty regulated.
Crypto is the old west, unregulated. Anyone who uses calculators to predict mining revenue is a fool.

Then it seems that there are a lot of fools out there when it comes to mining.

Anyone can make money in a bull market, now it gets interesting.

I agree, I really look forward to the bear cycle in order to get cheap video cards.

I am waiting for GPUs to go under MSRP, my eye are on those A2000 graphic cards, I want 10 of them, coins like Flux, Ergo, Ravencoin will lose value and miners will be pissed, that's when I will get in and start accumulating, be greedy when others are fearful they say.

[Metroid]

Anyone can make money in a bull market

Yeah, anybody can make money in a bull market, bear market on the other hand, is tough ehhe

[FP91G]

So don't blindly trust the calculators!

I really don't understand your post. If you have so much experience in mining, then why are you comparing the return on investment with the current profit of a mining calculator?
The calculator shows profit for the current hour, not even a day, and the price of a cryptocurrency can fall or grow 10 times in a year.

[Coinfarm ventures]

I am waiting for GPUs to go under MSRP, my eye are on those A2000 graphic cards, I want 10 of them, coins like Flux, Ergo, Ravencoin will lose value and miners will be pissed, that's when I will get in and start accumulating, be greedy when others are fearful they say.

I am skeptical of the A2000 model because it only has 6GB of memory and may not support all algos in the future.

Prices of low-end cards will keep falling because of the Intel Xe Arc launch this summer. If I were to buy a low-end card for mining, I would choose the RTX 3060 12GB LHR or RX 6600 XT 8GB.

[swogerino]

In my country the 1660 Super are running now just today I saw the new prices at 330 USD brand new while the Rtx 3060 12 GB Lhr only at 500 USD brand new so I see quite a fall down in prices but I believe we will see more of such happenings in the near future.I believe that no one cares much about the calculators when the prices of Gpu-s are cheap and they also have cheap electricity,those two factors are the deciding ones for me when building a rig.