ETH goes to PoS, who's up next?

[OgNasty]

Looking at the profitability of GPUs, I'm led to believe that Ravencoin may see a resurgence in price as miners are forced to move to mining it for revenue.  Surely there will be an impact.  I guess the question is if there will be demand to satisfy all the miners suddenly wanting to pull a ton of revenue out of the market.  In the past, when chains are forced to be the go to chain to mine, they've seen a massive price increase as a result.  This tends to go against common sense, but I think people likely take an investment in the coin they're going to be mining and that leads to the price going up and then profit chasers jumping in.  If this is indeed what we see for Ravencoin when ETH goes to PoS, I can imagine the price would at least 4X from it's current valuation.

Any other thoughts on the subject?

[rdluffy]

... In the past, when chains are forced to be the go to chain to mine, they've seen a massive price increase as a result.  This tends to go against common sense...

This is something important to consider and I'm saying this again and again in every topic about the future of mining

Contrary to people thinking only about huge hashrate coming to a coin, like RVN for example and reducing profits to almost zero, people have to think about the support miners will provide to this coin.

People mining RVN will give more attention to the coin, more usability, more users, more money, and can lead to higher prices, new features, more devs etc
I'm betting in this thought

Not all miners only do mine and sell and don't forget BTC and ETH are the kings, and both POW.
Least thing, maybe ETH can see a massive sell after POW > POS

[Coinfarm ventures]

Least thing, maybe ETH can see a massive sell after POW > POS

I do not think the ETH devs will prioritize PoS as long as the Ether price is > $2000. They would probably want to launch it during a recession, then when Ether price rebounds, they can claim 'PoS saved the coin'. They probably don't want to take the risk of crashing the price. The devs are funded by investors. What the investors want boils down to the coin price going up, regardless of energy consumption. The investors don't care about PoW or PoS, they just want their return.

[adaseb]

Price does not follow hashrate, hashrate follows price. When prices goes up generally hashrate goes up. When hashrate goes up, it doesn’t mean price will go up.

If it happened before then it’s a coincidence and nothing more. I guess there is that theory that the more hashrate a coin has the more secure it is hence it should have a higher price but it’s not guaranteed.

Right now POS will be earliest maybe Q3 if they don’t have any more delays .

[Metroid]

Looking at the profitability of GPUs, I'm led to believe that Ravencoin may see a resurgence in price as miners are forced to move to mining it for revenue.
Any other thoughts on the subject?

In the end what determines is the price of hashrate and if the people mining it is willing to sell it lower than what they mine or not, bear market is normal for people to sell for much less than what is worth because people do need money to pay things they cant pay using crypto and even if they pay using cryptos, market price is market price and therefore will have no difference paying in crypto or fiat directly. Ravencoin follows the same concept as bitcoin, halving every few years, meaning ravencoin no matter how much people want, will never have a huge increase in price, ergo on the other side its supply will keep decreasing every 3 months or so, so ergo have 90% of a chance to hugely increase in price, not going to be surprised if ergo hits 300 usd or more next bullrun, on the other hand, if ravencoin hits 1 usd next bullrun is good enough.

Price does not follow hashrate, hashrate follows price. When prices goes up generally hashrate goes up. When hashrate goes up, it doesn’t mean price will go up.

Yeah price does not follow hashrate, demand, speculation and hype do.

[5W-KILO]

Looking at the profitability of GPUs, I'm led to believe that Ravencoin may see a resurgence in price as miners are forced to move to mining it for revenue.
Any other thoughts on the subject?

In the end what determines is the price of hashrate and if the people mining it is willing to sell it lower than what they mine or not, bear market is normal for people to sell for much less than what is worth because people do need money to pay things they cant pay using crypto and even if they pay using cryptos, market price is market price and therefore will have no difference paying in crypto or fiat directly. Ravencoin follows the same concept as bitcoin, halving every few years, meaning ravencoin no matter how much people want, will never have a huge increase in price, ergo on the other side its supply will keep decreasing every 3 months or so, so ergo have 90% of a chance to hugely increase in price, not going to be surprised if ergo hits 300 usd or more next bullrun, on the other hand, if ravencoin hits 1 usd next bullrun is good enough.

Price does not follow hashrate, hashrate follows price. When prices goes up generally hashrate goes up. When hashrate goes up, it doesn’t mean price will go up.

Yeah price does not follow hashrate, demand, speculation and hype do.

Good points Metroid, but why just Ergo and Ravencoin? I though that Flux will be on that list because of it's usability, the project is very useful more than others what do you think about this project? Or ergo is better in your own word?.

[Metroid]

Good points Metroid, but why just Ergo and Ravencoin? I though that Flux will be on that list because of it's usability, the project is very useful more than others what do you think about this project? Or ergo is better in your own word?.

As per this page https://runonflux.io/mining.html and the white paper that i have seen a year or so ago, flux follows bitcoin halving block reward, like ravencoin, I see no huge increase in price, it will follow bitcoin just like ravencoin. I see no aggressive roadmap on flux or ravencoin, so I guess developers on those coins are just taking it easy for the long term. So we can expect an organic rise for both of them, ETH with pos and burning, ERGO with decreasing block reward every 3 months and both being still pow, that is very aggressive, eth will soon go pos, my take is, eth will go pos before the next bullrun, year before the next bullrun at least. ERGO on the other hand is extremely aggressive, I call that "suicide move", the question is if the market will follow that suicide move, miners will only follow if there is profit.

[VRExpress]

Flux is good for the long term and Ergo is good for mid term hold but expect sharp profit from ergo compare to other altcoins, I have a plan to bad all of them, ergo, rave coin and flux, they are all good PoW altcoins but the problem is no one knows if they will survive for long but still I don't worry myself much.

[kinkajou]

I see no aggressive roadmap on flux or ravencoin, so I guess developers on those coins are just taking it easy for the long term.

https://github.com/RavenProject/Ravencoin/tree/master/roadmap

Ravencoin's roadmap is complete. Finished in ~1yr aside from "compatibility mode" which is being reconsidered as the landscape has shifted away from UTXO-based chains (discussed in recent dev meetings). Ravencoin works exactly as was intended from the start and didn't need 6 years to (almost) figure it out.

Currently wrapping up a new release feat. P2SH for assets with a proposal for mineable assets funded and being worked on by at least one developer.

[devil2man]

I do not think that the passage of eth to pos will take place soon, however there are alternatives even if not so profitable, so there are ravencoin, ergo, flux, eth, aion you just need to find the most profitable one based on your cards

[Coinfarm ventures]

however there are alternatives even if not so profitable, so there are ravencoin, ergo, flux, eth, aion you just need to find the most profitable one based on your cards

This will not happen because ETH is currently 95% of the total revenue available to GPU miners. When ETH disappears, too many video cards will be competing for the smaller coins. ETC will be dominated by ASICs, so now only 3% of the revenue is left over. I expect revenue per card to crash to near-zero to an even worse level than late 2018 (which was a slow 90% decline). Most miners will stubbornly hold on for 2-3 months, then liquidate their rigs as they capitulate to the new market reality. Starving gamers will snap up the cheap GPUs, but eventually, their demand will be satisfied. I expect GPU prices to be half of what they are today.

Within a few months after the big bust, revenue will recover to a modest level like early 2019. There will 80-90% fewer GPU rigs in total. Let's take the average ETH revenue in 2019, which was $0.0125/day/Mh, then divide it in half to account for Moore's Law. Let's add 30% to take into account the other coins like GRIN/RVN which were more profitable. That comes out to $0.008/Mh/day.

Revenue for an RTX 3080 could be $0.80/day, power cost could be $0.50 at a 9¢ rate, which leaves profit at just $0.30.   There is no way we can pay off that video card even if the price is half of MSRP at just $400. The only hope would be another GPU coin goes into gold rush mode soon.

[swogerino]

however there are alternatives even if not so profitable, so there are ravencoin, ergo, flux, eth, aion you just need to find the most profitable one based on your cards

This will not happen because ETH is currently 95% of the total revenue available to GPU miners. When ETH disappears, too many video cards will be competing for the smaller coins. ETC will be dominated by ASICs, so now only 3% of the revenue is left over. I expect revenue per card to crash to near-zero to an even worse level than late 2018 (which was a slow 90% decline). Most miners will stubbornly hold on for 2-3 months, then liquidate their rigs as they capitulate to the new market reality. Starving gamers will snap up the cheap GPUs, but eventually, their demand will be satisfied. I expect GPU prices to be half of what they are today.

Within a few months after the big bust, revenue will recover to a modest level like early 2019. There will 80-90% fewer GPU rigs in total. Let's take the average ETH revenue in 2019, which was $0.0125/day/Mh, then divide it in half to account for Moore's Law. Let's add 30% to take into account the other coins like GRIN/RVN which were more profitable. That comes out to $0.008/Mh/day.

Revenue for an RTX 3080 could be $0.80/day, power cost could be $0.50 at a 9¢ rate, which leaves profit at just $0.30.   There is no way we can pay off that video card even if the price is half of MSRP at just $400. The only hope would be another GPU coin goes into gold rush mode soon.

First I think there is time until early 2023 before Eth move to PoS as the developers have already postponed the Q2 or early Q3 2022 PoS switch.There are a lot of months until this happen if it happens at all.

As for the gold coin I am pretty confident that another coin will come to save the day in the best possible scenario and in the worst case scenario only bold people will still continue mining at a loss hoping for a bright future for the coin they mine or converting it to Bitcoin and wait for the next bull run.

The ones who will benefit more are the ones with really cheap electricity prices as they can run their rigs further.

[philipma1957]

Eth is not going POS until it crashes bigly.

Simple logic.

Move to POS in October with eth at 2750 price it tanks to 900 oh the switch to pos tanked the coin


Move to POS in October with eth in free fall to 1599-1300-1100 oh the switch to pos will save the coin.

No way do they switch to POS this year if coins price is strong 2k+ would be good enough.


Now if eth does crash bigly and the switch happens gpu mining will suck for a few years. Who knows what will fix it.

My goal is very much just bank and bank til the crash. then buy cheap cards.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Eth is not going POS until it crashes bigly.

Simple logic.

Move to POS in October with eth at 2750 price it tanks to 900 oh the switch to pos tanked the coin


Move to POS in October with eth in free fall to 1599-1300-1100 oh the switch to pos will save the coin.

No way do they switch to POS this year if coins price is strong 2k+ would be good enough.


Now if eth does crash bigly and the switch happens gpu mining will suck for a few years. Who knows what will fix it.

My goal is very much just bank and bank til the crash. then buy cheap cards.

Couldn't agree more. This is the most likely plan of the devs. At the end of the day, all they care about is coin price, which is what the investors care about most. The devs don't want to be on the hook for a potential bear market.

I built a few rigs to experiment with some Stratum software I'm coding up and because GPUs are relatively cheap. I'll convert the profit into BTC, then HODL until January in anticipation of the big PoS mining crash.

If PoS doesn't happen by then, at least I paid off most of my equipment.

If PoS occurs, I will have enough cash saved up to buy hundreds of RTX 3060's, RTX 2070 super's, RTX 2080 Ti's, RX 5700's or other low-end models. I think in early 2023, the low-end cards will provide the best value because of heavy competition. No more RTX 3080/3090 series cards for me; I have no time to replace thermal pads.

[CryptoATM]

Eth is not going POS until it crashes bigly.

Simple logic.

Move to POS in October with eth at 2750 price it tanks to 900 oh the switch to pos tanked the coin


Move to POS in October with eth in free fall to 1599-1300-1100 oh the switch to pos will save the coin.

No way do they switch to POS this year if coins price is strong 2k+ would be good enough.


Now if eth does crash bigly and the switch happens gpu mining will suck for a few years. Who knows what will fix it.

My goal is very much just bank and bank til the crash. then buy cheap cards.

Couldn't agree more. This is the most likely plan of the devs. At the end of the day, all they care about is coin price, which is what the investors care about most. The devs don't want to be on the hook for a potential bear market.

I built a few rigs to experiment with some Stratum software I'm coding up and because GPUs are relatively cheap. I'll convert the profit into BTC, then HODL until January in anticipation of the big PoS mining crash.

If PoS doesn't happen by then, at least I paid off most of my equipment.

If PoS occurs, I will have enough cash saved up to buy hundreds of RTX 3060's, RTX 2070 super's, RTX 2080 Ti's, RX 5700's or other low-end models. I think in early 2023, the low-end cards will provide the best value because of heavy competition. No more RTX 3080/3090 series cards for me; I have no time to replace thermal pads.

Hahaha I went through a lot to copper mod all my RTX graphic cards and it get to a point where I got pissed at myself then I said this is my last time I will ever buy a RTX gpu with GDDR6X memory, they are very hard to maintain, I will be mining flux with a separate rig and two others with ETH.

[AnotherAlt]

Eth is not going POS until it crashes bigly.

Simple logic.

Move to POS in October with eth at 2750 price it tanks to 900 oh the switch to pos tanked the coin

Well, ETH is not going to POS until May 2023. You don't have to believe me, Check ETH Developer Tweet about it,

I think in the next year we can:
1. Ship PoS
2. Ship Withdrawals
3. Ship 4844/rollup fee reductions
4. Ship improvements to the EVM
5. Align EL/CL governance
6. (Maybe) Have a path for quicker EVM upgrades outside of L1

12 months, though obviously not everything happens at once, so you’ll see some/most come much before May 2023

[Coinfarm ventures]

Well, ETH is not going to POS until May 2023. You don't have to believe me, Check ETH Developer Tweet about it,

Looks like PoS will happen in Q4 or later, but the problem is the difficulty bomb will start exploding this summer. That means less revenue for GPU miners.

[AnotherAlt]

Well, ETH is not going to POS until May 2023. You don't have to believe me, Check ETH Developer Tweet about it,

Looks like PoS will happen in Q4 or later, but the problem is the difficulty bomb will start exploding this summer. That means less revenue for GPU miners.

I know. But, we were expecting ETH PoS in June or earlier. But, According to Tim Beiko, We may get a few more months to mine ETH. You can ROI your GPUs in 8-9 months. Hopefully, ETH PoS will delay another 8-10 months from now.

[Coinfarm ventures]

I know. But, we were expecting ETH PoS in June or earlier. But, According to Tim Beiko, We may get a few more months to mine ETH. You can ROI your GPUs in 8-9 months. Hopefully, ETH PoS will delay another 8-10 months from now.

We will definitely be able to mine until November. But unfortunately, Beiko said defusing the difficulty bomb again is a low priority which would be done later in the process. I remember what happened back in 2017. Every 3 weeks, difficulty jumped by 10%. That's a 46% increase in just 3 months, which means 32% lower revenue. But if the devs end up defusing it, at least diff will plummet back to where it would be without the bomb instantly.

I expect revenue on other GPU coins to follow the same downward spiral.