Bitcoin Breaks Bullish Trend Line?

[serjent05]

Based on the chart above article[1] from coindesk stated that Bitcoin had broken the Bullish trend line.

Bitcoin's daily chart is leaning bearish ahead of U.S. April payrolls and wage-growth data that could influence market expectations about the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening.

Key Factors

• On Thursday, the leading cryptocurrency fell nearly 8%, printing a UTC close under an ascending trend line that connected bullish higher lows from Jan. 24 and Feb. 24.
• The breakdown of the three-month rising trend line perhaps implies the resumption of the broader decline from November highs. Popular indicators like the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram are also biased bearish.
• Support is seen at $34,322, the Feb. 24 low, followed by the Jan. 24 low of $32,933, according to the charting platform TradingView.
• The non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release on Friday at 12:30 UTC is likely to show the economy gained 391,000 jobs last month after adding 431,000 in March, according to FXStreet.
• The unemployment rate is likely to have dropped to 3.5% in April from 3.6% in March. Wages probably grew 0.4%, or 5.5% on a year-over-year basis, the same pace as the preceding month.
• With the Fed focused on bringing down inflation, the jobless rate and wage-growth numbers are likely to overshadow the payrolls figure.
• A tight labor market and wage increases cause inflation, so an above-consensus wage-growth figure and a drop in the jobless rate may bolster inflation worries and increase the odds of a 75 basis point rate increase next month. That might bring additional downside pressure for risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC).
• The Fed on May 4 raised the benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points and suggested that large increases are likely in the coming months. The central bank also said it would start reducing its near $9 trillion balance sheet.
• While Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers aren't actively considering a 75 basis point hike, that guidance may have been based on expectations the labor market will cool and inflation will peak.
• Powell made it clear the central bank is open to tolerating an economic recession to bring down inflation, leaving the door open for renewed repricing of even bigger increases.

Based on the key factors minimizing inflation and the incoming payrolls might affect the demand for Bitcoin in the market.  But points given, I still believe that this is just another lower high in the bearish market trend.

[1] https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/05/06/bitcoin-breaks-bullish-trendline-us-jobs-data-eyed/

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[Oshosondy]

I am always tired of all these news, I am a trader and my trading is based on corrections and bull market. Recently, bitcoin price has falled, I will look for overbought market and buy and if I gain I will sell and repeat the process, this is most likely what will happen, but if I enter into bear trap, I will turn it to swing trading because I know that the price of bitcoin will still increase and make profit as I long the trading position.

Based on the key factors minimizing inflation and the incoming payrolls might affect the demand for Bitcoin in the market.  But points given, I still believe that this is just another lower high in the bearish market trend.

That was even lower higher today and always, it depends. It also depends to what extent you meant it. Also ATH was $69000, bitcoin falled to $34500, increase back to $45000, decreased to $37500, increased to $48000, decreased back to 37500 and increasing and decreasing within $37000 and $40000 until it falled below $36000 recently. Which means there has alway been lower higher even after ATH.

[Husires]

Your words would be logical if there is a link between the stock market and cryptourrencies, but this link cannot be proven, and therefore we will return to the levels of support and resistance, which give better results.

Support and resistance levels are still at their lowest level, and therefore it is unlikely that we will see a drop below 32k.
As for the reason for the correction, which is that the price tried to break the previous top at 46k several times and did not succeed in breaking it so we must down to 32 levels.

[ajochems]

The cryptocurrency was different from the stock market for the sure.You should learn this one.In stock market,mostly this will be changed at any cost.The pattern of the chart wasn’t change in the stock market.But it’s wrong to expect the same on different investment platform.And the pump and dump was huge in the cryptocurrency.But in stock you get assured profit of the 5 percentage.

[coolcoinz]

I love how people draw lines trying to predict what comes next and they always fail. Like, how can you draw a line a d call it bullish when we supposedly are in a bear market since January? Unless you thought that we were in a correction in a bull market, just like in Summer of 2021, but then it still doesn't make sense because you claim that we broke a bullish trend line, but we are still at a higher low compared to 30k in July, so we should still be in a bull market

Somehow when we went to 30k last year, everybody said that the bubble has popped and we're in a bear market now and it's going to continue for a year. Then we went to 70k and line drawers were obviously shocked. Then we went to 32k in January and line drawers said that it's officially over now and we're going into a bear market, but then we went to 48k and line drawers on Coindesk and such were euphoric - lines broken! 100k incoming! And now we're back at 35k...

[Hypnosis00]

It is only just our mind thinking that the market is not facing the bearish side but the reality is that we are already there. In fact, if we tried to analyze the trend, it is literally showing that we are in the bearish line, not just a normal correction.

I don't think this is hard to accept. We have had this situation so many times as whether we like it or not, this gonna happen. What we just hoping is that this won't be like 2018 which takes almost 3 years to recover.

[Dhaniii]

we like to jump, sometimes fall and sometimes fly, so corrections are still reasonable for those of us who trade short term. This correction is our chance to buy and our chance to sell when bitcoin repeats itself at a price above $40k like yesterday. once a month price correction often occurs until it reaches the price of $ 35k and another increase above $ 40k is not the best opportunity at this time.

[lornadane]

we like to jump, sometimes fall and sometimes fly, so corrections are still reasonable for those of us who trade short term. This correction is our chance to buy and our chance to sell when bitcoin repeats itself at a price above $40k like yesterday. once a month price correction often occurs until it reaches the price of $ 35k and another increase above $ 40k is not the best opportunity at this time.

Yes of course this is a good opportunity for those of us who want to benefit in the short term.
Count on looking for gaps in opportunities like this.
Maybe in a few days the bitcoin price will start to normal again like last week's price was around $40 thousand so take this opportunity to buy as much as possible when the price is down at $34 or $35 thousand at this time.

[Reatim]

Based on the key factors minimizing inflation and the incoming payrolls might affect the demand for Bitcoin in the market.  But points given, I still believe that this is just another lower high in the bearish market trend.

there is no way that we can hinder this incoming fall as it was already starting to happen , the April effect is taking place now and no wonder how low we can see in this process.
but let us not add to the problem if we are not being in need of funds then let our currencies stays in wallets so we may help in small way preventing the continues dropping.
this is how we can contribute if we are not a Big investors.

[adaseb]

Most people I know personally all have gotten out of crypto and stocks. They all sold because they want to rebuy lower for half. They are also pretty convinced that there will be a recession soon. Everywhere you go people are talking about a recession.

One thing I learnt about the markets is that if the retail market all thinks one thing, then most likely it won’t happen. So who knows when the bottom will be. There is a good chance that maybe it already bottomed out since people are so bearish now.

[Kemarit]

Most people I know personally all have gotten out of crypto and stocks. They all sold because they want to rebuy lower for half. They are also pretty convinced that there will be a recession soon. Everywhere you go people are talking about a recession.

Right, probably it's because of what is happening around us, the war, inflation and other geo politics that is affecting every market.

One thing I learnt about the markets is that if the retail market all thinks one thing, then most likely it won’t happen. So who knows when the bottom will be. There is a good chance that maybe it already bottomed out since people are so bearish now.

You can't blame retail though, I mean they are the bulk of the market, so they almost think very positive although we all seen this from previous history. We are in the bear market and most likely the price will still go down, maybe as low as the previous all time high (2017), around $20,000.

[fortuner]

Most people I know personally all have gotten out of crypto and stocks. They all sold because they want to rebuy lower for half. They are also pretty convinced that there will be a recession soon. Everywhere you go people are talking about a recession.

Right, probably it's because of what is happening around us, the war, inflation and other geo politics that is affecting every market.

One thing I learnt about the markets is that if the retail market all thinks one thing, then most likely it won’t happen. So who knows when the bottom will be. There is a good chance that maybe it already bottomed out since people are so bearish now.

You can't blame retail though, I mean they are the bulk of the market, so they almost think very positive although we all seen this from previous history. We are in the bear market and most likely the price will still go down, maybe as low as the previous all time high (2017), around $20,000.

Even though the market is currently declining, I'm not sure if bitcoin will fall that low because judging from the current price range it's still very far from that.
Because every year there must be a correction in the bitcoin market price and to return to last year's market price it is really impossible.

[traderethereum]

Even though the market is currently declining, I'm not sure if bitcoin will fall that low because judging from the current price range it's still very far from that.
Because every year there must be a correction in the bitcoin market price and to return to last year's market price it is really impossible.

The market could be going down deeper than now as the trend is showing the line is going down again.
But that could all change if there was support for bitcoin coming into the market and the price could move and return to highs.
Not only every year but maybe every month there will be a correction but we don't know when the lowest correction will come.
And this year we see the correction coming too deep and don't know when the price will bounce back.

[coolcoinz]

Most people I know personally all have gotten out of crypto and stocks. They all sold because they want to rebuy lower for half. They are also pretty convinced that there will be a recession soon. Everywhere you go people are talking about a recession.

One thing I learnt about the markets is that if the retail market all thinks one thing, then most likely it won’t happen. So who knows when the bottom will be. There is a good chance that maybe it already bottomed out since people are so bearish now.

This is where this well known statistic comes to play, which states that (depending on a source) 80-95% of traders lose money on the market. If retail was always right we'd simply have too many millionaires, yet most people struggle to make ends meet. It takes time for people to get smart. I know a guy who borrowed money to invest in bitcoin in 2013 and lost it all by selling at the bottom. Then he got out and missed 2017 completely, working his ass off to repay the debt, but once he saved up some money he bought again and is a hodler now. The market is down But I don't think he's going to sell until he's at least 5x on his investment. You grow into this state of mind and that's why smart money is buying now and retail is out, because retail is 99% like my friend in 2013 - waiting for youtubers and line drawers to tell them what to do.

[tabas]

I still believe that this is just another lower high in the bearish market trend.

That's what it's going to be. Every year, we're going to see a new high for a low price of bitcoin. And if people don't look at that, they're going to be disappointed just because they look at the daily prices.
But in all reality, this is showing that bitcoin is doing good and even if it drops lower this time. We can compare the past years low prices and it will be an impressive chart for sure.

[Silberman]

Most people I know personally all have gotten out of crypto and stocks. They all sold because they want to rebuy lower for half. They are also pretty convinced that there will be a recession soon. Everywhere you go people are talking about a recession.

One thing I learnt about the markets is that if the retail market all thinks one thing, then most likely it won’t happen. So who knows when the bottom will be. There is a good chance that maybe it already bottomed out since people are so bearish now.

At least they have a plan, however I think that when it comes to bitcoin it is a risky one, while I think that in the case the economic crisis aggravates even further the price of bitcoin will go down as well, after some time then the price will begin to recover and we will begin to see a massive growth, similar to what we saw at the beginning stages of the pandemic, this means that the people that you know will have to get their bitcoin during a very short period of time when the price is going down, and that is not something easy to do at all.

[Jating]

Most people I know personally all have gotten out of crypto and stocks. They all sold because they want to rebuy lower for half. They are also pretty convinced that there will be a recession soon. Everywhere you go people are talking about a recession.

Right, probably it's because of what is happening around us, the war, inflation and other geo politics that is affecting every market.

One thing I learnt about the markets is that if the retail market all thinks one thing, then most likely it won’t happen. So who knows when the bottom will be. There is a good chance that maybe it already bottomed out since people are so bearish now.

You can't blame retail though, I mean they are the bulk of the market, so they almost think very positive although we all seen this from previous history. We are in the bear market and most likely the price will still go down, maybe as low as the previous all time high (2017), around $20,000.

Even though the market is currently declining, I'm not sure if bitcoin will fall that low because judging from the current price range it's still very far from that.
Because every year there must be a correction in the bitcoin market price and to return to last year's market price it is really impossible.

At least it's better to prepare ourselves with that kind of worst situation.

Speaking of 2017 or early 2018, there are members screaming that bitcoin won't go down to $10k after reaching as high as $20k in its bull run. But guess? start of 2018 we enter a bear market and the price goes down hard. So lessons learned that time is that everything is possible, just like 6 digit price seems likely in the future, a $20k plunge with all the geo-political affecting all markets, we should be ready.

[hatshepsut93]

Yes, it's likely we're only in the middle of a long bear market, the ATH wasn't actually long ago, and it's still 2 years till next halvening. So you shouldn't be surprised if the price drops further, just don't panic sell and keep hodling. The good time to sell is in bull market, not in bear market, because you never know when bear market reverses, it can happen suddenly and you might have to rebuy at a higher price and lose some coins in the process.

[adaseb]

One issue I am worried about is that during the last Microstrategy conference call, they said they got a liquidation price of $21K for their Bitcoin position. This is worrying because when the bears hear those targets they will usually try and run them.

Especially since it’s still above the $20K old ATH and most likely if last years $28K breaks then it can get down to $21K pretty fast.

Depending on the state of the global markets then, they will need to liquidate a large portion of their BTC and it’ll be nasty. Hopefully it never comes to that.

[Oshosondy]

Yes, it's likely we're only in the middle of a long bear market, the ATH wasn't actually long ago, and it's still 2 years till next halvening. So you shouldn't be surprised if the price drops further, just don't panic sell and keep hodling. The good time to sell is in bull market, not in bear market, because you never know when bear market reverses, it can happen suddenly and you might have to rebuy at a higher price and lose some coins in the process.

Bitcoin can dip more than we can expect, but it should not be a surprise as to what has happened in the past, like in 2017, bitcoin got to ATH of $20000, it deceased back in 2019 and 2020 below $3900. That was a huge correction. Bitcoin ATH in last year was almost $70000, it has retraced back to $34000. If compared to the last time, there should be more correction, maybe down to $25000.

The worst time to sell is during bear time and the worse time to buy is when the bull market is getting finally over. You are right about that. I believe some people would be panic and sell this time, but the worst decision to make because the price will rise back, though it can be long term.