HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 14th May 2026.

AI Rally Meets Inflation Fears: Key Market Moves Traders Need to Watch.


Global markets entered Thursday’s trading session with investors balancing two powerful forces: unstoppable enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence and growing concerns that inflation may keep central banks restrictive for longer.

Equity markets across Asia and the United States remained supported by the AI-driven rally that has dominated financial markets throughout 2026. However, underneath the surface, traders are increasingly cautious as rising oil prices, stronger inflation data, and geopolitical uncertainty threaten to complicate the outlook.

At the centre of market attention was the highly anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. While investors hoped for progress on trade and geopolitical tensions, markets largely treated the summit as a “no negative surprises” event rather than a catalyst for major breakthroughs.

For traders, the session highlighted an important market theme currently shaping nearly every asset class:

Risk appetite remains strong, but inflation and geopolitical risks continue to limit aggressive bullish positioning.

The European session was dominated by stronger-than-expected UK GDP data.

The report surprised to the upside across most metrics, showing that the British economy remained resilient before the recent escalation in Middle East tensions and the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

The stronger growth figures reinforced expectations that the Bank of England may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer, especially as inflation risks remain elevated globally.

Sterling initially found support following the release, although broader political uncertainty in the UK limited gains later in the session.

The stronger GDP figures reinforced the view that the Bank of England may not rush towards easing, while political uncertainty continues to keep GBP volatility elevated.

Looking ahead in Europe, traders are monitoring the Spanish Final CPI release, although expectations are that the data will not materially alter the European Central Bank’s policy outlook.

As a result, any market reaction is likely to remain muted unless inflation surprises significantly.

The US session shifts attention towards two major economic releases:

• US Retail Sales
• US Jobless Claims

Retail Sales provide insight into the health of the American consumer, which remains the backbone of the US economy.

Market expectations are pointing towards slower growth compared to the previous month:

• Retail Sales M/M expected at 0.5% vs 1.7% prior
• Core Retail Sales ex-Autos expected at 0.6% vs 1.9% prior
• Retail Control Group expected at 0.4% vs 0.7% prior

Although Retail Sales is a major market-moving release, its impact is often temporary unless the numbers significantly surprise expectations.

Still, the numbers could influence:

• US dollar direction
• Treasury yields
• Short-term Fed rate expectations
• Equity market sentiment

A stronger-than-expected report could further reinforce the narrative that the US economy remains resilient despite elevated interest rates.

That would likely support the dollar and potentially pressure risk assets if yields rise further.

Alongside Retail Sales, traders are closely monitoring Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims.

Forecasts currently show:

• Initial Claims expected at 205K vs 200K prior
• Continuing Claims expected at 1.780M vs 1.766M prior

The labour market continues to display remarkable resilience.

Initial Claims remain near cycle lows, while Continuing Claims have steadily declined towards levels not seen since 2024. The combination of resilient employment conditions and sticky inflation continues to reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates anytime soon.

One of the biggest themes driving markets this week has been the return of inflation concerns.

Recent US CPI and PPI data both came in hotter than expected, reinforcing fears that inflation may not cool fast enough for the Federal Reserve to pivot towards aggressive easing.

US producer prices posted their strongest increase since early 2022, while annual consumer inflation accelerated at its fastest pace in three years.

The result has been:

• Rising Treasury yields
• Stronger US dollar demand
• Reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts
• Increasing speculation about future hikes

Market pricing now reflects growing expectations that the Fed could remain restrictive well into 2027.

Higher Treasury yields are becoming increasingly important for traders because they can pressure growth-focused assets while supporting defensive positioning and commodity demand.

Despite inflation concerns, technology stocks continue to dominate market momentum.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both reached fresh record highs as investors maintained strong exposure to AI-related companies.

Asian markets also reflected the AI boom:

• Japan’s Nikkei reached new all-time highs
• South Korea’s KOSPI remained supported by semiconductor demand
• AI-related companies continued to outperform broader markets

One of the standout stories came from SK Hynix, which is reportedly approaching a $1 trillion market valuation after a massive rally this year.

The ongoing AI frenzy has created a market environment where investors continue buying growth despite rising yields and geopolitical uncertainty.

Still, the strength of the AI rally means markets could become more vulnerable to disappointment if earnings slow, economic data weakens, or geopolitical tensions intensify.

Another major market focus was the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

Investors entered the meeting with relatively low expectations, meaning markets were primarily looking for stability rather than transformational agreements.

Early headlines suggested:

• Trade discussions are continuing
• Both sides want to avoid major escalation
• Taiwan remains a key geopolitical risk
• Possible tariff adjustments may be discussed

Even without major breakthroughs, markets viewed the absence of fresh escalation as supportive for risk sentiment.

Meanwhile, reports suggesting that the US and China may explore limited tariff reductions on selected goods helped support sentiment towards the Chinese yuan.

The yuan climbed to its strongest levels in roughly three years, while Chinese equities experienced some profit-taking after a powerful AI-driven rally in recent weeks.

Technology stocks led declines in China as traders locked in gains ahead of clearer details from the summit.

Crude oil remains one of the most important variables for global markets.

The ongoing conflict involving Iran and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep energy markets under pressure.

Brent crude traded above $105 per barrel, while WTI crude remained above $100.

Elevated energy prices continue to feed inflation concerns, increase production costs, and complicate the outlook for central banks considering future rate cuts.

As long as oil prices remain elevated, inflation expectations are unlikely to decline meaningfully.

This creates a difficult environment for central banks attempting to balance slowing growth with persistent price pressures.






The US dollar remained supported by:

• Higher Treasury yields
• Hawkish Fed expectations
• Strong labour market data
• Inflation concerns

The Dollar Index continued to strengthen as traders reduced expectations for near-term easing.

Euro: The euro weakened modestly against the dollar as markets focused on diverging monetary policy expectations between the ECB and the Fed.

British Pound: Sterling initially gained after strong UK GDP data but later faced pressure from political uncertainty.

Japanese Yen: The yen remained under pressure near intervention-sensitive levels around 158 against the dollar. Traders remain alert for potential intervention from Japanese authorities if volatility accelerates.

Chinese Yuan: The yuan strengthened significantly, reaching multi-year highs amid optimism surrounding the Trump-Xi summit and expectations for trade stability.

Several central bank officials are scheduled to speak throughout the day, increasing the potential for volatility across forex and bond markets.

Key speakers include:

• ECB President Christine Lagarde
• Fed’s Schmid
• BoE’s Pill
• Fed’s Hammack
• Fed’s Barr
• Fed’s Williams

Given the market’s sensitivity to inflation and rate expectations, traders will closely watch for:

• Any shift towards a more hawkish stance
• Comments on inflation persistence
• Labour market concerns
• Rate path guidance

Even subtle changes in tone could move currencies, yields, and equities sharply.

Several themes are likely to remain at the centre of market attention in the coming sessions:

• Inflation data and Treasury yields
• AI-driven momentum in equity markets
• Developments from the Trump-Xi summit
• Central bank commentary and rate expectations
• Oil price volatility linked to Middle East tensions

Financial markets are currently navigating a complex environment where optimism and caution coexist.

On one side, the AI boom continues driving equity markets to record highs, supported by strong corporate earnings and resilient economic data.

On the other side, rising oil prices, persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to threaten the outlook.

For traders, this means volatility opportunities are likely to remain elevated across:

• Forex markets
• Equity indices
• Commodities
• Bond markets

As the US session unfolds, Retail Sales data, Jobless Claims, and central bank commentary could become the next major catalysts shaping short-term market direction.

In the current environment, staying flexible and closely monitoring macroeconomic developments remains essential.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 15th May 2026.

Higher Yields, Oil Prices and Potentially Interest Rates Trigger Risk-Off Sentiment.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Gold and the stock market witnessed a strong decline on Friday as investors priced in no interest rate cuts for 2026. Investors are being shaken by higher inflation figures and bond yields rising. Particularly, bond yields have risen to a 14-month high which makes the US Dollar more attractive but pressures Gold and the stock market.

Interest rates and Bond Yields Trigger Unfavourable Conditions

There is no new development indicating that the stock market is on the verge of witnessing a significant selloff. However, market conditions are deteriorating for Gold and the stock market making it difficult to maintain an upward trend.

The main concerns for investors are interest rates, bond yields, and oil prices. US inflation has risen from 3.3% to 3.8% and core inflation rose by double the previous month. In addition to this, producer inflation rose to its highest level in four years. For this reason, investors are expecting the Federal Reserve to not cut interest rates at all in 2026.

Higher interest rates alone can pressure the stock market and Gold. However, higher bond yields also add additional pressure on the two assets by increasing the value of the US Dollar. The US 10-Year Treasury yield has risen 73 basis points this morning and continues to trade above 4.5%. Trading above this level is known to pressure Gold while above 5% tends to see investors clicking the panic button.

Higher Oil Prices

Oil prices on Friday morning have risen by more than 2%, rising close to the key resistance level of $103.75. Prices are increasing for three reasons which are ultimately triggering a ‘risk-off’ appetite throughout the whole market. The three reasons are the Strait continuing to remain closed, Iran seizing a ship near Oman and Trump’s comments before leaving China.

According to Trump, China is now willing to purchase oil from the US. China has not confirmed this. However, Trump’s statement suggests Beijing may be looking to diversify its oil supply amid rising Middle East tensions and growing risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

NASDAQ Comes Under Pressure From Bond Yields

The NASDAQ this morning has fallen slightly above 1%, triggering short-term sell signals but not validating a long-term trend yet. In addition to the above which continues to pressure the stock market, investors are also concerned about AI-related companies keeping the stock market afloat.


HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart

Nasdaq 100 futures are still trading well above the key medium-term moving averages on larger timeframes. For example, the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages are all below current price, confirming that the wider trend remains positive. In addition to this, on smaller timeframes the decline has now reached a key support level.

However, short-term indicators are clearly pointing towards a decline. The VWAP is trading above the price, as are the Parabolic SARs and Moving Averages. If the price rises above $29,515.00 buy signals will again return as more than 65% of the decline would have been regained. However, if the price remains lower than this level, bearish impulse waves remain possible.

Immediate resistance sits near 29,530–29,600, while support is around 29,420, followed by 29,320 if selling pressure continues.

Gold Dives Due To Dollar Demand

Gold remains under short-term technical pressure, despite its broader safe-haven appeal. High bond yields are resulting in investors not using Gold as their preferred safe-haven option. The latest move shows XAU/USD struggling to regain upside momentum after recent weakness, with daily technical indicators still leaning bearish and moving averages showing a ‘Strong Sell’ bias. The price is trading below the recent recovery zone, with immediate resistance around $4,637–$4,670, followed by a stronger cap near $4,708.

On the downside, key support sits around $4,605, followed by $4,560 and the previous swing-low area near $4,503. A break above $4,670 could suggest buyers are trying to stabilise the market, but as long as Gold remains capped below $4,708, the short-term bias remains corrective. A move below $4,605 would increase the risk of further downside towards $4,560.

Key Takeaway Points:

1. Gold and stocks declined as investors reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
2. Higher bond yields strengthened the US Dollar, adding pressure on equities and Gold.
3. Rising oil prices increased inflation concerns and supported broader risk-off sentiment.
4. NASDAQ and Gold remain technically weak, with short-term sell signals still active.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 18th May 2026.

US-Iran Tensions, Bond Yields and Gold Pressure Markets.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Negotiations between the US and Iran are not witnessing progress, and the US is again taking into consideration further attacks. As a result, investors are pricing in further supply chain disruptions due to the Strait of Hormuz remaining shut.

A big concern for the market is the selloff within the global bond market, particularly in the US and UK. The US 10-Year Bond Yield has risen to 4.615%, the highest since January 2025. In addition to the above, investors are also predicting that the possibility of further interest rate hikes will increase as oil prices rise again.

US and Iran Negotiations

Over the weekend, President Trump spoke to members of the media, expressing his frustration with Iran and the lack of progress. The President’s language was particularly aggressive, advising that ‘time is of the essence’.

The US and Iran remain deeply divided over an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Judging by the comments from both representatives over the weekend, the reopening of the Strait any time soon remains unlikely. Meanwhile, a drone attack triggered a fire at a nuclear plant in the United Arab Emirates, while the global bond sell-off intensified amid the ongoing deadlock between Washington and Tehran.

In addition to the above, reports suggest that the US administration is taking into consideration further action against Iran. These include policy measures, Non-military developments as well as further direct attacks on Iran. If the conflict escalates further the market is likely to take on a ‘risk-off’ appetite. As a result, the US Dollar and crude oil may potentially rise further.

NASDAQ Fights The Market’s Risk-Off Sentiment

All global indices fell on Monday due to the low sentiment among investors as bond yields and crude oil prices rise. The rise in bond yields is likely to trigger higher interest rates, even without the Federal Reserve adjusting monetary policy. However, inflation and oil prices also increase the possibility of rate adjustments.

During periods of low-risk sentiment, the NASDAQ usually underperforms other major indices. However, today it is outperforming the broader market. Although all indices are declining, the NASDAQ is holding up best. This is likely due to the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report and continued AI-trend optimism.


HFM - NASDAQ 1-Hour

The NASDAQ is trading slightly below the VWAP, which gives a bearish bias, but the price has risen above the key moving average. Indications will depend on whether the price rebounds away from the moving average or if the price continues to rise. If the price falls below $28,992.75, sell signals will arise and will potentially strengthen if it falls further below $28,927.60.

XAUUSD Falls To Its Lowest Since March 2026

During the Asian session, the price of Gold fell quickly close to a two-month low but thereafter was quick to rebound. The decline was triggered by the rise in the Dollar and bond yields. However, the Dollar is now retracing lower but still remains high, pressuring Gold.

Gold remains under short-term pressure today, with the bias staying bearish while the price trades below the $4,576–$4,580 resistance area. A break below $4,510 could reopen downside towards $4,480 and lower, while a move back above $4,580 would suggest buyers are regaining control, with the next recovery targets around $4,645–$4,700.

Though the price will continue to depend on the US Dollar, bond yields, and developments within the Middle East. According to economists, if bond yields rise to 5.00%, investors are likely to panic and become risk-averse.

Key Takeaway Points:

* US-Iran talks remain stalled, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and raising fears of further supply-chain disruption.
* Global bond yields continue to rise, increasing pressure on equities and gold while supporting the US Dollar.
* The NASDAQ is outperforming other indices, supported by NVIDIA earnings expectations and continued AI-sector optimism.
* Gold remains under pressure, with higher bond yields and a stronger Dollar pushing XAUUSD near a two-month low.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 19th May 2026.

Markets on Edge: Rising Yields, Oil Volatility, and AI Stocks Under Pressure.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Negotiations Global markets are entering the new trading day with investors facing a difficult mix of geopolitical uncertainty, surging bond yields, and renewed pressure on high-growth technology shares. After months of AI-driven optimism pushing equities to record highs, markets are now confronting the reality of elevated inflation risks and the possibility of interest rates staying higher for longer.

Asian Markets Slide as Tech Stocks Lead Losses

Asian equities traded mostly lower during Tuesday’s session, with technology shares once again under heavy pressure. South Korea’s KOSPI dropped sharply as semiconductor giants came under renewed selling pressure, reflecting weakness seen overnight in US chipmakers.

The broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as investors rotated away from risk assets and toward safer positions amid growing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and global interest rates.

Japanese equities also weakened despite stronger-than-expected GDP data. Although Japan’s economy expanded for a second consecutive quarter, investors largely ignored the positive economic figures and instead focused on rising global bond yields and energy-driven inflation risks.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong markets managed modest gains, while Chinese equities remained under pressure as investor sentiment across the region deteriorated.

Bond Yields Become the Market’s Main Concern

One of the biggest themes dominating financial markets is the relentless rise in government bond yields.

The yield on the US 30-year Treasury climbed above 5.1%, reaching its highest level since 2023, while Japan’s 30-year government bond yield surged to record highs not seen since the bond was first introduced in 1999.

Markets are increasingly worried that elevated oil prices and resilient economic data could force central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer than investors had previously expected.

Historically, rising Treasury yields have created significant headwinds for equities, particularly growth and technology stocks. Higher yields reduce the attractiveness of future earnings projections, which directly impacts richly valued AI and semiconductor companies that have led the recent rally.

This concern is becoming increasingly visible in valuations. The Nasdaq 100 is currently trading above its long-term average forward earnings multiple, leaving the sector vulnerable to corrections if financing conditions tighten further.

AI Rally Faces Its Biggest Test Yet

The artificial intelligence boom has been the dominant driver of global equity performance throughout the year. However, the environment is becoming more challenging.

Chipmakers and AI-related stocks came under renewed pressure after weakness in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index extended into a second session. Investors are beginning to question whether current valuations can remain justified if borrowing costs continue climbing.

Several major technology stories are also shaping market sentiment:

* NVIDIA Corporation remains in focus ahead of earnings, with investors watching closely for signs that AI demand remains strong.
* Seagate Technology suffered a sharp decline after management’s comments raised concerns about its ability to keep up with soaring memory demand.
* Standard Chartered announced plans to cut thousands of support roles as banks increasingly integrate artificial intelligence into operations.
* Google and Blackstone Inc are reportedly working on a new AI cloud venture designed to compete with existing infrastructure providers.

The market’s current challenge is balancing long-term AI optimism against short-term macroeconomic risks.

Oil Prices Remain the Key Market Driver

Energy markets continue to dominate global sentiment as traders closely monitor developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

Although Donald Trump stated that planned US military strikes on Iran were postponed due to ongoing negotiations, oil prices remain historically elevated.

Brent crude slipped below $110 per barrel after the announcement, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $103. However, crude prices remain dramatically higher compared with pre-conflict levels.

The near-total disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to raise fears of prolonged supply shortages, especially for Asian economies heavily dependent on imported energy.

Higher oil prices are now feeding directly into inflation expectations globally, complicating the outlook for central banks and increasing pressure on both bonds and equities.

Gold Retreats as Yields and Dollar Rise

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, Gold moved lower as rising Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Gold prices retreated toward $4,540 per ounce after briefly rallying earlier in the week. Investors appear to be balancing safe-haven demand against expectations that higher interest rates may persist longer than anticipated.

The US dollar also continued strengthening as investors sought defensive positioning amid market uncertainty.



What Traders Should Watch Today

Markets remain extremely sensitive to headlines related to the Middle East conflict, oil supply disruptions, and bond market movements.

Key themes traders will monitor throughout the session include:

* Developments regarding US-Iran negotiations
* Movements in Treasury yields
* Crude oil volatility and Strait of Hormuz updates
* Upcoming earnings from major AI and technology companies
* Central bank expectations and inflation outlook

The current environment suggests volatility is likely to remain elevated. While AI optimism continues to provide long-term support for equities, rising yields and persistent energy inflation are beginning to challenge the sustainability of the rally.

For traders, today’s session may revolve around whether markets continue rotating into defensive positioning or whether buyers return to risk assets following recent pullbacks.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date: 21st May 2026.

Strong NVIDIA Earnings: Why the Weak Reaction?


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report continues to deliver very strong results and guidance for the upcoming quarter, though the stock’s reaction was relatively weak in the short term. At times during the hours after NVIDIA’s report was made public, the stock rose, but at the moment it is trading 1.25% higher.

Economists argue that investors had already priced in a strong quarter and did not find the results surprising. In addition, the stock has already gained 70% over the past 12 months, suggesting traders are satisfied with both the gains and the current price. For this reason, the reaction remains relatively muted, although it supports the broader stock market.

The NASDAQ and US stock market are seeing both up and down price movement during this morning’s Asian session. This is partially due to traders waiting for the US market to open in order to digest the NVIDIA news, as well as the tug-of-war between positive earnings and geopolitical issues.

The NASDAQ Reacts to NVIDIA’s Strong Earnings Report

Over the past week, the NASDAQ formed a clear double bottom pattern, followed by a reversed head and shoulders pattern. Both patterns indicate upward price movement due to the index finding support. The key drivers will remain NVIDIA’s earnings report, as well as factors forming due to the US-Iran conflict.

In regards to NVIDIA, the main story is still AI infrastructure demand. Earnings per share were $1.87 and revenue was just over $81 billion, both higher than expectations. Data Centre revenue now represents the overwhelming majority of NVIDIA’s business, driven by demand for AI chips, networking, and full-stack AI systems.

NVIDIA also reported record Data Center compute revenue of $60.4 billion and networking revenue of $14.8 billion, showing that growth is not only from GPUs but also from the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem.

In addition to this, investors are closely monitoring developments within the Middle East. Even though some reports suggest that the negotiations are close to producing a memorandum, the US President and Iran remain in a war of words. This morning, both the US Dollar and crude oil are trading higher due to this. Any escalation causing higher inflation and a further bond selloff can pressure the NASDAQ’s trend.


HFM - NASDAQ 15-Minute Chart

In the short term, if the price falls below $29,178.40, sell signals are likely to arise. However, if the price rises above $29,288.20, buy signals can strengthen further. All global indices are trading lower this morning, giving a slight bearish bias. However, markets will monitor the price action as the US session opens.

Gold Remains Under Pressure from the Dollar And Iran Conflict

The price of Gold continues to come under pressure from bond yields, the US Dollar, and global monetary policy. These three elements are tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump again demanded Iran’s compliance with White House conditions. However, Iran continues to insist on sanctions relief and access to frozen assets before negotiations continue. According to Al Arabiya, US and Iranian representatives may meet in Islamabad after the Hajj season, with this year’s main rituals falling on May 25-29. Mediators from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt have recently worked to bridge the gaps. Iran now needs to offer specific nuclear commitments, while the US must clarify the process for unblocking Iranian funds.


HFM - XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart

On the 1-hour chart, the price of Gold continues to trade below the key moving averages and below the VWAP. However, the price remains within the neutral level of the RSI and the MACD. For this reason, Gold is not experiencing sell signals from all indicators, but is seeing a bearish bias.

Key Takeaways:

* NVIDIA delivered strong earnings and guidance, but the reaction remains weak because investors had already priced in a strong quarter.
* AI infrastructure remains NVIDIA’s main growth driver, with Data Centre revenue now representing the majority of the business.
* The NASDAQ remains sensitive to both NVIDIA’s performance and geopolitical risks, especially developments in the US-Iran conflict.
* Gold remains under pressure from a stronger US Dollar, higher bond yields, and uncertainty around global monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.