Are Quantum Computing Initiatives Behind Bitcoin's Latest Downtrend?

[Hydrogen]

image link:  https://i.ibb.co/pWScQxs/may4th-2022-btc-downtrend.jpg

Our recent downtrend began around may 4th, 2022.

Was there anything significant in the news for crypto in that timeframe?

White House wants nation to prepare for cryptography-breaking quantum computers

May 4, 2022

A memorandum issued Wednesday by President Joe Biden orders federal agencies to ramp up preparations for a day when quantum computers are capable of breaking the public-key cryptography currently used to secure digital systems around the world.

The document, National Security Memorandum 10 (NSM-10), calls for “a whole-of-government and whole‑of‑society strategy” for quantum information science (QIS), including “the security enhancements provided by quantum-resistant cryptography.”

The chief concern is the expected creation of a cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) — the presumed goal of some QIS research by the U.S. as well as adversaries such as China.

“Current research shows that at some point in the not-too-distant future, when quantum information science matures and quantum computers are able reach a sufficient size and level of sophistication, they will be capable of breaking much of the cryptography that currently secures our digital communications,” a senior Biden administration official told reporters Tuesday in advance of the memorandum’s release. That cryptography, in many cases, dates to work published in the late 1970s and updated in the decades since.

“The good news is that this is not an insurmountable problem,” the official said. “The National Institute of Standards and Technology — NIST — will soon be publishing new cryptographic standards that can protect against these future attacks.”

Biden’s memorandum mentions quantum-resistant cryptography more than 20 times as it lays out tasks for agencies such as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the National Security Agency and NIST, which has an authoritative role in setting cybersecurity standards.

Those agencies will have about six months to “establish requirements for inventorying all currently deployed cryptographic systems, excluding National Security Systems (NSS).”

NIST and CISA also would be required to set up outreach with the private sector, including critical infrastructure operators, on transitioning important systems to quantum-resistant cryptography.

Biden also issued an executive order Wednesday that would create a National Quantum Initiative Advisory Committee including White House officials and up to 26 experts from industry, academia and U.S. national laboratories.

https://therecord.media/biden-quantum-computing-national-security-memorandu/

There is a past precedent for correlation between quantum computing headlines and declines in bitcoin price. There was a BTC downtrend when google claimed to achieve quantum supremacy. Other news relating to quantum computers are correlated with BTC price declines.

Is anyone enthusiastic about this proposal to create and deploy new cryptographic standards announced by the US government. I would be interested to know where public opinion stands on this issue.

[adaseb]

No this is not the reason for the sell off.

And this was discussed for years. When quantum computers come out then Bitcoin will most likely upgrade its code to be more secure. And so will banks and most companies to secure their systems.

This is years and years away however. Today’s sell off was due to the UST unpegged from 1:1 causing panic.

[arabspaceship123]

I'd say they aren't connected. We've seen reports about breakthroughs in breaking cryptography that aren't true so private keys are safe for now they aren't going to be broken.

[bitmover]

No this is not the reason for the sell off.

And this was discussed for years. When quantum computers come out then Bitcoin will most likely upgrade its code to be more secure. And so will banks and most companies to secure their systems.

This is years and years away however. Today’s sell off was due to the UST unpegged from 1:1 causing panic.

I agree about the first part, this has nothing to do with quantum computers.

But I don't think the downtrend has anything to do with UST. It is more about FED raising interest rates.

When the FED increase interest rates, we can expect money flows from everywhere else to US treasure bonds. US treasure bonds are considered the most conservative and safe investment in the world, and now it is paying much more than before.

[serjent05]

I do not think that the news about the memorandum issued by President Joe Biden regarding the preparation ramp-up of the quantum computers is the main reason behind the BTC downtrend.  This issue about super computers had been on the internet for years but we have witnessed that up and down of BTC price is not affected, BTC even had its new ATH last year.

Is anyone enthusiastic about this proposal to create and deploy new cryptographic standards announced by the US government. I would be interested to know where public opinion stands on this issue.

I am not, I don't find any reason to be enthusiastic about the tackled subject since I can't use it anyway.  Aside from that, I do not think that it is a threat to Bitcoin security.

[Hydrogen]

I can't claim to know others plans for the future.

One possible scenario is the US government could mandate new cryptographic standards which are "quantum compliant". They could petition bitcoin developers to replace BTC's elliptic curve signatures with a new encryption algorithm which was created by the government working in concert with intelligence agencies like the FBI, CIA and NSA. To prepare bitcoin for the coming "quantum computer" era.

Existing standards like SSL and SSH could also be replaced with new "quantum compliant" encryption.

People may not grasp the significance of this initially. But if they thought about it, they might realize it could carry implications depending on how its implemented.

[Emitdama]

This is one of the biggest scares I have about crypto, if quantum computing starts the way scientists claim that it would, then we are going to end up with a technology that could break crypto and would be able to "hack" into anything they want.

However, this is also a big scare for all the tech as well, if you have that much power you could literally destroy a whole nations tech grid in matter of a few minutes and there is nothing they could do to stop you. This power is a very scary one that could change the way people think, and unless everyone has it, just like nukes, then people in different nations will be in big danger against the nation who figures it out.

[kryptqnick]

I missed this news, actually, but maybe others did not, and it acted as a short-term trigger of the selling. After all, the timing seems right, so there probably was some panic that can be attributed to this memorandum. That being said, it's also true that the topic isn't new, and some have been worried about cryptos and quantum computers for years. But the memorandum statement says that much of cryptography used for digital communications might be cracked, it doesn't mean that cryptocurrencies would be. Also, sometimes predictions about the 'not-too-distant future' are very wrong, so we don't know how much time this will take. And if they can make new standards to protect against these events, I'm sure things can be done with cryptos as well when the threat gets real.

[davis196]

The idea of Bitcoin traders panicking just because there are some news and events related to quantum computing seems ridiculous to me.
I'm not an expert on quantum computers,but I think that it would take years for quantum computers to become available for the masses.
Even if quantum computers become a thing,I'm sure that the Bitcoin Core blockchain would adapt to the new situation and improve.
The Bitcoin Core code isn't written on stone,Bitcoin is flexible and it always will be.
The price drops were caused by the Federal Reserve increasing the interest rates and the stock market going down.
I guess that,from now on,the panic on the stock markets would be easily transferred across all the other financial markets.This is the new normal.

[Lucius]

If someone sold their Bitcoin just because the US issued a statement about quantum computers, then they have no idea how secure Bitcoin is. From what I've read on the subject in dozens of forum topics, Bitcoin can become resistant to such computers even through the implementation of a soft fork that would introduce a quantum-resistant digital signature. I am sure that this issue is on the agenda of many developers who will act in a timely manner to enable Bitcoin to be protected from possible attacks.

But I don't think the downtrend has anything to do with UST. It is more about FED raising interest rates.
When the FED increase interest rates, we can expect money flows from everywhere else to US treasure bonds. US treasure bonds are considered the most conservative and safe investment in the world, and now it is paying much more than before.

You are right about the Fed, let's say it started with them, and then this fiasco with the so-called stablecoins made matters worse. But one should know that other central banks are also raising interest rates, and that this is being seriously considered in the EU. Money always moves where investors feel most secure, even if it doesn't mean they will make a profit in the long run.

[Moneyprism]

the most likely cause of the current downtrend is because UST which is a stablecoin worth not more than 0.3 ... this caused panic among crypto traders and made the market fall right now .. but I don't think it will be long, there will definitely be time for the market to recover

[arabspaceship123]

Cryptocurrencies will defend against break threats by upgrading bit if it happens suddenly it's too late. That's scary.

This is one of the biggest scares I have about crypto, if quantum computing starts the way scientists claim that it would, then we are going to end up with a technology that could break crypto and would be able to "hack" into anything they want.

However, this is also a big scare for all the tech as well, if you have that much power you could literally destroy a whole nations tech grid in matter of a few minutes and there is nothing they could do to stop you. This power is a very scary one that could change the way people think, and unless everyone has it, just like nukes, then people in different nations will be in big danger against the nation who figures it out.

[Fortify]

Our recent downtrend began around may 4th, 2022.

Was there anything significant in the news for crypto in that timeframe?

There is a past precedent for correlation between quantum computing headlines and declines in bitcoin price. There was a BTC downtrend when google claimed to achieve quantum supremacy. Other news relating to quantum computers are correlated with BTC price declines.

Is anyone enthusiastic about this proposal to create and deploy new cryptographic standards announced by the US government. I would be interested to know where public opinion stands on this issue.

People always go on the hunt for extravagant ideas in search of answers when bitcoin jumps around. However the solution is usually much more simple - that bitcoin, maybe even crypto in general, is more closely tied to general economic trends than people would like. The stock markets have been trending down in the last week and there is continuing pressure since inflation is so high, that is a much more likely correlation as it's shown similar action before.

[CaVO32]

People always go on the hunt for extravagant ideas in search of answers when bitcoin jumps around. However the solution is usually much more simple - that bitcoin, maybe even crypto in general, is more closely tied to general economic trends than people would like. The stock markets have been trending down in the last week and there is continuing pressure since inflation is so high, that is a much more likely correlation as it's shown similar action before.

Honestly, it is hard to pinpoint the reason/s of why bitcoin is going down. But I don't think it is about quantum computing aspect, I am more also on the economic situation right now also. And the combination of all factors that we have right now. We don't know up until where it goes down, but if you are a believer of this market, this is a very good chance to slowly accumulate some satoshis.

[Lanatsa]

No this is not the reason for the sell off.

And this was discussed for years. When quantum computers come out then Bitcoin will most likely upgrade its code to be more secure. And so will banks and most companies to secure their systems.

This is years and years away however. Today’s sell off was due to the UST unpegged from 1:1 causing panic.

I agree about the first part, this has nothing to do with quantum computers.

But I don't think the downtrend has anything to do with UST. It is more about FED raising interest rates.

When the FED increase interest rates, we can expect money flows from everywhere else to US treasure bonds. US treasure bonds are considered the most conservative and safe investment in the world, and now it is paying much more than before.

Or simply there's no exact reason on why we are seeing downtrend as of this moment.We could really connect several news and events which could be a possible reason but we cant precisely tell  that it is the main point.

For now lets just hope that it wont really be crashing down to the floor.It seems this movement or decline is really just too much? Cant really be avoided for the community to panic out.

Speaking about quantum then this had been an old thing and lets see on how this would be materializes.

[Hydrogen]

People always go on the hunt for extravagant ideas in search of answers when bitcoin jumps around. However the solution is usually much more simple - that bitcoin, maybe even crypto in general, is more closely tied to general economic trends than people would like. The stock markets have been trending down in the last week and there is continuing pressure since inflation is so high, that is a much more likely correlation as it's shown similar action before.

General economic trends and natural market mechanics are historically known and documented. Many experienced investors have commented on the erratic and unusual nature of US stocks over the past 20 years. Crypto has also deviated from its historical norms since it became traded by institutional firms.

There is a legitimate explanation for current bitcoin and stock market movement that I've posted on this forum for many years. To understand it people must learn basics of asset trading. The fundamentals which say the biggest traders and holders of an asset, with the biggest liquidity can move prices as they wish.