Price drops and the machine prices

[@AllexFerr]

Historically does the prices of the new machines goes down as the bitcoin price drops ?

[mikeywith]

Historically does the prices of the new machines goes down as the bitcoin price drops ?

Yes, they do, but not instantly like most people expect/hope, it can take months, and it will depend on the demand, unfortunately, many people overpay for mining gears, so they pay 7k for S19 today, and even if the profitability drops by 25%, they will still pay 7k, so this kind of "dumb demand" slows down the price drop.

Another factor would be the sellers refusing to sell at lower prices, they will hold for as much as they can, in hope of a difficulity drop or a rebound in the price so they can sell for higher prices.

These two factors plus a few others I might not be aware of, they keep the price from dropping, especially for brand new gears, used gears drop a lot faster in price.

I still recall that right after the halving when profitability dropped by 50% instantly, gear prices didn't flinch until weeks had passed, so I expect this time it will be the same, but profitability has to stay low long enough, if we rebound soon then gear prices will not drop.

[philipma1957]

Mikey is correct.

For us to see a gear price drop these prices need to stay here for 2-3 weeks.

Prices will then fade more.

Back in July/August 2020 height of covid shut down I got an s17 at $785 usd.

You need a strong slump that lasts for weeks to push down the prices.

A s17 set to 1500 watts will burn 36 say 40 kwatts a day.

A six cent miner will spend $2.40 a day in power and that miner will do 48th or about  $6.14 a day

so 6.14-2.40 = $3.74 a day profit.

this means a big farm with s17 or s19 is still good.  So no big sell off

but drop price to 20k and daily earn is $3.96

so 3.96-2.40 = 1.56 for an s17  which is shit

so 31k will not crush asic prices
but 20k will crush prices.

in both cases you need 4 weeks at those coin prices .

[Coinfarm ventures]

I can speak to GPU mining in particular. Used video card prices react very quickly to profit changes. Sellers lower their asking prices within 3-5 days. New video cards take 1-2 weeks to adjust to the new profit reality.

[DaveF]

The other thing to keep in mind is time & labor.
You have to sell the miner, pull the miner [it's silly to pull it before it's sold], box the miner and ship the miner.
You then say screw it, I'll just leave it in the data center mining. Too much effort for too little money and prices might go back up or difficulty may drop or.....

Someone who looks a lot like me may have lost a lot of money doing that with old servers years ago.

-Dave

[Coinfarm ventures]

The other thing to keep in mind is time & labor.
You have to sell the miner, pull the miner [it's silly to pull it before it's sold], box the miner and ship the miner.

The biggest issue of all is depreciation recapture under U.S. tax law. If the owner wrote off the ASIC and they sell it for more than they deducted, they owe income tax.

[@AllexFerr]

By some comentes that I have been reading here, I wonder what is the advantage to mine in USA ?

[Coinfarm ventures]

By some comentes that I have been reading here, I wonder what is the advantage to mine in USA ?

Probably political safety as well as tax deductions from depreciation (like Section 179). The disadvantage can be higher power cost in some areas or import tariffs.

[mikeywith]

Probably political safety.

Not if you are not a U.S citizen, because well, the U.S might just decide to impose some sanctions on a whole country for whatever reason, they could seize your miner or do anything they want, this, of course, applies to every other country, so long story short, do not mine outside of your home country, it does not matter how crypto-friendly that country is.

Not your country, not your farm. Not your farm, not your gears. Not your gears, not your BTC. Not your BTC, ok that's enough .

[Coinfarm ventures]

Not if you are not a U.S citizen, because well, the U.S might just decide to impose some sanctions on a whole country for whatever reason, they could seize your miner or do anything they want, this, of course, applies to every other country, so long story short, do not mine outside of your home country, it does not matter how crypto-friendly that country is.

Not your country, not your farm. Not your farm, not your gears. Not your gears, not your BTC. Not your BTC, ok that's enough .

Agreed. I would never start a farm outside of my home country even if electricity is free. Screw the federal government. But they simply have more hoops to jump through in order to seize a private citizen's business or crypto or mining farm compared to Russia/China/Venezuela. They probably have to go through at least 1 court trial unless the business is obviously criminal. These courts are decentralized (district court, circuit court then Supreme Court) so there are opportunities to appeal.

Yes, we saw what happened in Canada with the truck drivers, but they were targeted because they were as loud and in the public eye as possible. If Washington wants to confiscate assets, they will go after Coinbase/Kraken first before thinking about some random mining farm in the middle of nowhere.