What has happened with the mempool?

[NeuroticFish]

Does anybody know what has happened with the mempool in the last hours?
I see that somebody has dumped 100 vMB of transactions at 12-14 sat/vByte.
Any background story about who has done this or what event has caused it?


source: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,8h,weight

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[stompix]

It wants its share of fun, we have things going down the drain everywhere why not some shitshow here too? 

I see people claiming it's Binance consolidating inputs, but I've not seen any proof for that, furthermore, when you fill the blocks with consolidation transactions you tend to have fewer of them, yet in the logs, I see over 2000 tx per block constantly.
And of course, we're down 14 blocks from the normal place in the last 24h, to make things spicier!

[DaveF]

I actually started a thread about the same time commenting that although the mempool is bloated fees did not spike.
That is what I find more interesting. Last time someone spiked the mempool like this fees went way up almost instantly. They are still sane now.
Having the mods remove that post since I guess we can discuss it here....

-Dave

[BitMaxz]

I can't find any events or news that could affect mempool spike what I only notice is that the spike started a few hours ago while the price reaches $28k.
There might be a group with many people who transfer their holdings to an exchange and sell and I think it might be a group of whales?

Even Cryptopanic don't have news or event that could affect this spike. Cryptoquant and Glassnode only show exchange inflow(It's currently under trending).

[NeuroticFish]

There might be a group with many people who transfer their holdings to an exchange and sell and I think it might be a group of whales?

If there would be whales, why wouldn't they transfer their funds in a much smaller number of transactions?
It has looked to me more like a withdrawal/payout done by an entity to a huge number of addresses, especially as the fees are pretty much similar (which would not be the same if there would be competing trading or arbitrage bots). That's why I was asking.

Last time someone spiked the mempool like this fees went way up almost instantly. They are still sane now.

Last time it may have been a competition between bots and probably the price was also going upwards.

Having the mods remove that post since I guess we can discuss it here....

Thank you.

It wants its share of fun, we have things going down the drain everywhere why not some shitshow here too? 

If the price doesn't go up suddenly, I'd expect this get cleared before Monday. Else... that will be a shitshow, this is nothing yet.

I see people claiming it's Binance consolidating inputs, but I've not seen any proof for that, furthermore, when you fill the blocks with consolidation transactions you tend to have fewer of them, yet in the logs, I see over 2000 tx per block constantly.

I'd expect consolidation be big transactions, not many transactions. So I agree, this doesn't look like consolidation.

[tbct_mt2]

Fud attempt.

The market is panic and market makers try to dump all their fud at the same time. From Luna, UST, Bitcoin, Ethereum to Tether USD. They have a massive campaign to fud and dump the market.

It is good to panic newbies who don't understand what is mempool, how to make transaction, how to set fee for their transaction. They panic when their transactions stucked on congested network. I was panic like that years ago when I even did not know why my transaction was stucked for half a day on Bitcoin network.

Bitcoin protocol has difficult retarget each 2016 blocks or about 14 days so waiting transactions in mempool will be confirmed later or will be dropped off mempool and people will have to broadcast their transaction again.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Just posted this in another thread:

It's Binance. They are migrating all their wallets for some reason: https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/c8d82e9c6c694be8b8d2cd88227ae1ea

You can see the activity on their hot wallet address has skyrocketed over the last couple of days, coinciding with the huge mempool spike: https://explorer.bitquery.io/bitcoin/address/bc1qm34lsc65zpw79lxes69zkqmk6ee3ewf0j77s3h?from=2022-04-13&till=2022-05-12

[logfiles]

There might be a group with many people who transfer their holdings to an exchange and sell and I think it might be a group of whales?

It can never be a group of people or whales, reason being most people don't know even how to use appropriate Bitcoin fee rates. We would have seen a spike in fees with some of them ignorantly sending transactions at over 100 sats/vbytes

o_e_l_e_o's response holds more weight.

[NeuroticFish]

It's Binance. They are migrating all their wallets for some reason: https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/c8d82e9c6c694be8b8d2cd88227ae1ea

You can see the activity on their hot wallet address has skyrocketed over the last couple of days, coinciding with the huge mempool spike: https://explorer.bitquery.io/bitcoin/address/bc1qm34lsc65zpw79lxes69zkqmk6ee3ewf0j77s3h?from=2022-04-13&till=2022-05-12

Indeed, you seem to be correct (hence I was wrong here). I've looked around and I've found pages of transactions like these:



It looks like somebody is giving up the legacy addresses after all. Is it Binance? Maybe.

[Lucius]

It looks like somebody is giving up the legacy addresses after all. Is it Binance? Maybe.

It's a bit strange that they decided that this is a good time to fill up the mempool like this and cause even more panic than that genius from South Korea did. In addition, most of the bad news always comes to us from Japan, South Korea or China, and there is no doubt that some people in these countries have strong talents to mess up when it comes to Bitcoin.

[o_e_l_e_o]

It's a bit strange that they decided that this is a good time to fill up the mempool like this and cause even more panic

If something as completely benign as a bunch of transactions showing up the mempool is enough to make someone panic and sell their bitcoin, then I have absolutely no qualms buying all that up at a discount. This space probably isn't for them.

than that genius from South Korea did.

To be fair, regardless of the collapse of Luna, Do Kwon will still come out of this a millionaire and continue to lead a very comfortable life. Minting an infinite supply of Luna to keep UST pegged to the dollar was obviously never going to work, and I'm certain he knew this. It is all the people who blindly threw their money at this scam on the promises of 20% APY or whatever else obvious bullshit they were being sold who are to blame here. Do Kwon might be unethical and immoral, but he's not stupid - he knew exactly what he was doing and has made himself a nice profit doing it.

[DaveF]

It's a bit strange that they decided that this is a good time to fill up the mempool like this and cause even more panic

If something as completely benign as a bunch of transactions showing up the mempool is enough to make someone panic and sell their bitcoin, then I have absolutely no qualms from buying all that up at a discount. This space probably isn't for them.

People who invest in anything that don't do sufficient research about the risks / rewards and how the thing they are investing in works probably should be investing in CDs and municipal / government bonds.

than that genius from South Korea did.

To be fair, regardless of the collapse of Luna, Do Kwon will still come out of this a millionaire and continue to lead a very comfortable life. Minting an infinite supply of Luna to keep UST pegged to the dollar was obviously never going to work, and I'm certain he knew this. It is all the people who blindly threw their money at this scam on the promises of 20% APY or whatever else obvious bullshit they were being sold who are to blame here. Do Kwon might be unethical and immoral, but he's not stupid - he knew exactly what he was doing and has made himself a nice profit doing it.

Well there still is that entire possibility of jail thing. Not to mention the lawsuits. I promised myself I would not start reading about it and checking on it once the entire dump started. But I lied to myself and spent about 2 hours looking at all of it last night. About 10 minutes in you could see it was a scam from the start. Before the 1/2 hour mark you could easily see that the numbers would never work.


Anyway back to the subject at hand. 10 sat/Vb are getting confirmed regularly now and if the trend keeps up the mempool should be cleared in a few days.

Makes you wonder what kind of controls they have any why in general they decided to do it.

-Dave

[Lucius]

If something as completely benign as a bunch of transactions showing up the mempool is enough to make someone panic and sell their bitcoin, then I have absolutely no qualms buying all that up at a discount. This space probably isn't for them.

It is not just about a bunch of transactions, but also the timing in which they happened - especially if all these transactions come from a certain Chinese crypto company that chose a very strange moment to make such a move.

If you want to say that most people who are involved in Bitcoin in some way do not understand the basics, then you are right - but I wonder how moral it is to get rich on the ignorance and panic of others?

To be fair, regardless of the collapse of Luna, Do Kwon will still come out of this a millionaire and continue to lead a very comfortable life. Minting an infinite supply of Luna to keep UST pegged to the dollar was obviously never going to work, and I'm certain he knew this. It is all the people who blindly threw their money at this scam on the promises of 20% APY or whatever else obvious bullshit they were being sold who are to blame here. Do Kwon might be unethical and immoral, but he's not stupid - he knew exactly what he was doing and has made himself a nice profit doing it.

People like him will certainly never become poor, as long as there are millions in the world to whom you can sell such nonsense as he sold. Besides, he is a man who publicly says with enthusiasm that 95% of all cryptocurrencies will fail anyway, and that he enjoys watching them fail. I hope that someone will react and accuse him of fraud, although such liars like him usually get minimal penalties, and instead of being a warning to others, they are even more encouraged to do just such things.

[o_e_l_e_o]

It is not just about a bunch of transactions, but also the timing in which they happened - especially if all these transactions come from a certain Chinese crypto company that chose a very strange moment to make such a move.

Everyone knows I am a heavy critic of Binance, but they made a blog post (which I linked to above) announcing all this a week before Luna collapsed. I think its tin foil hattery to suggest that Binance were waiting for Luna to collapse to broadcast their wallet migration transactions on the off chance it would make a handful of newbies panic sell.

but I wonder how moral it is to get rich on the ignorance and panic of others?

So if you believe that the value of bitcoin is going to rebound, then you should never buy it since you would be taking advantage of the ignorance of the person selling who doesn't believe it is going to rebound?

Besides, he is a man who publicly says with enthusiasm that 95% of all cryptocurrencies will fail anyway, and that he enjoys watching them fail.

I don't enjoy watching them fail, because it is always the innocent users who get burned, but the sooner they all fail the better for bitcoin and crypto users in general.

[Lucius]

Besides, he is a man who publicly says with enthusiasm that 95% of all cryptocurrencies will fail anyway, and that he enjoys watching them fail.

I don't enjoy watching them fail, because it is always the innocent users who get burned, but the sooner they all fail the better for bitcoin and crypto users in general.

The fact that this project has failed does not mean that there will be no new ones who will use Bitcoin to achieve what they want, so scams will continue to happen - but the problem is not in those behind such projects, but the real problem is those who allow such projects to be available to anyone at all - and I mean trading platforms the most.

This is not just direct damage to those who have invested in these projects, but also to Bitcoin, which has once again found itself at the center of a financial scandal, this time worth as much as $80 billion.

https://twitter.com/sassal0x/status/1524895455485652992

[sklopan]

Interesting indeed. Do you think this can be explained by the current price of bitcoin?

[DaveF]

...The fact that this project has failed does not mean that there will be no new ones who will use Bitcoin to achieve what they want, so scams will continue to happen - but the problem is not in those behind such projects, but the real problem is those who allow such projects to be available to anyone at all - and I mean trading platforms the most....

Sorry but sometimes you can't fix or help stupid.
Possibly it's a bit of hindsight but reading about the entire luna thing it was obvious it was either a scam or a very very very risky gamble.

You can't force non regulated exchanges / trading platforms to do or not do something. If you do they are no longer non regulated.
And if you do start forcing them more and more will pop up that are running out of peoples basements that are not regulated anyway.

You can't stop it, you can only hope to slow it down.

-Dave

[jerry0]

Confused with the post.  You mean now the average cost to send btc is higher now in terms of sats?  Could you always send btc with just one sat regardless of average fees?

[pooya87]

Confused with the post.  You mean now the average cost to send btc is higher now in terms of sats?  Could you always send btc with just one sat regardless of average fees?

You can always send your transactions with any amount of fees you want from 0 to the sum of all your inputs.
But you are always in competition with others for the limited block space (regardless of its max size) so if there are more transactions than the block space you have to pay a higher fee to be prioritized by the miners for that space.

It's supply and demand at its best. There is a limited supply (block size) and if the demand for it is smaller or equal to that size the price of it (fee) remains low. If the demand increases the price goes up.

[Lucius]

You can't force non regulated exchanges / trading platforms to do or not do something. If you do they are no longer non regulated.
And if you do start forcing them more and more will pop up that are running out of peoples basements that are not regulated anyway.

I'm not talking about some small and unregulated crypto exchanges, but about the big and most influential ones like Binance and Coinbase who supported this whole scam project by giving it maximum visibility. Not to mention some other companies that have been involved in this, and after so much damage everyone is pretending that this is something completely normal.

Scammers thrive because they have the logistical support of companies that only care about profit, and the vast majority of people who don't really care about anything changing about it.