Two small things first before I start making my arguments about this:
- I put the title "pay to play" instead of the "pay to work" I will refer further down not to make it confusing for readers
- I'm a bitcoin maximalist so I'm obviously biased against tokens and altcoins, deal with it!
![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
LE: Title update to make sure we're talking about blockchain model games
The model:
First I must point out that games that have described themselves as "play to earn" have existed long before the blockchain, it was either by viewing ads through the game or selling resources in-game or on an afar larger scale and for deals outside the game simply farming the shit out of gold or items and selling those to other players. So the idea is not new at all, the only thing special about it is some buzzwords like NFT and Blockchain, as for the games, are still some lame ass copies of more famous games with no actual revolutioanry technology behind them.
The free to pay entry
This is the main problem with all these games since they have to attract users by rewarding them and then need also an entry point, it's all you can eat but with an entry fee so that not only some might lose money on it but you also keep some desperate people motivated to click endlessly each day to recover the loses. So, at this point, it's not as much play to earn but work your ass to not be in red.
The work part
The game I will mention a few times axie infinity considers itself some pokemon clone, of course with nothing other than having some characters fight. Actually quite funny, pokemon go creatures don't breed in the game at all. So while comparing itself to famous games it lacks one thing, innovation, and it has tons of another, called repetition. And this is where the two models completely cut ties, while gamers on the pokemon side play when they want how much they want, walking eggs to hatch for miles if they have the lungs and legs for it, in play to work models you're restricted, because, well, it would mean too much money printed. And this is where you completely cut the link between a fun game that has millions of users coming out of their houses in the rain to fight gyms or 5-star raids with millions desperate to sell their tokens as high as possible.
The failing revenue model
And this is the part that is most interesting.
Somehow users new to the cryptocurrency scene think that everything that has currency and decentralization and other bling words will gain value out of thin air and stay like that forever. Probably the 100 to 0 Luna fail might have taught some a lesson but I doubt the majority will indeed understand.
Pay to work apps like axie have a simple revenue model for their users, I will play a bit with the numbers to make it easier, not for accuracy reasons. You have 10 guys trying to start work, they have to pay 500$ for a good team in order to work. For them to earn back their money those 5000$ have to come out somewhere! Money doesn't magically get printed and if it does it turn to 1$=1c luna style.
Ona linear scale this would be sustainable, the first 10 guys invite other 10 guys who pay 500 each, and the next invite other 10 so if the model would really work like that it would be sustainable but the problem arises when somebody is making 50 000 and others are desperate for 50$.
The second problem is that after recouping your investment, in order to earn you have to make more than that, so again with the 10 user model, they have to make at least 100$ a month to make it worth it, which means they need 2 more guys for each user each year for that. Every new user regenerates this way the need for 2 paying players, and here it starts looking like the MLM scheme its actually is.
With currently 3 million players in the game for each to make some 100$ a month you would need 300 million influx each month, now assuming you would find 3 new million players willing to pay 100$, oh now you have 6 million players wanting money.The result?
The failed control
Our entire history is filled with examples of how we managed to lose control over currencies and how fixing them lead to more disastrous events. Every time you try to prop a currency without taking a look at the basics you either postpone the catastrophe or make it happen faster.
And here is the perfect example of a failed patch
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftalkimg.com%2Fimages%2F2023%2F06%2F12%2FA8RRJ.png&t=665&c=OiNaalJZn5ohOw)
To stop the failure of the token, they did cut the supply, but cutting the supply while still printing money isn't fixing a thing if you have more outflow than you still print. And of course, the consequences when you print less money is that you have less money to give out, which again, has consequences like the numbers of players dropping, fewer players coming to the game so less money inflow, or in short a spiral of death.
The Con Patch
There is also another way to try to prop out the falling ruin, and this is rebranding. Rebranding has always the advantage of luring some fools into these new schemes because they have learned one less, the first in Ponzi schemes and MLM schemes are the ones with a chance of getting some money for real, so simply print some other jpgs and sell some virtual plot lands to try and balance the money flow. Of course, it helps short term but long term it suffers from the same drawbacks and you end up with two problems instead of one.
The need for a token.
This is the reason why I mentioned bitcoin maximalism.
Why would any game need its own token if it's a play to earn and obvious all the earnings will be converted into either BTC or ETH and then used to pay in $ for things. There is no need for those tokens, every single game out there could simply run with a database or if they would absolutely want to use a blockchain, a blockchain doesn't need to have a currency on it.
The only real need for the specific token is far away from decentralization, it's about initial money-grabbing and absolute control over it.
So, what's your opinion, will the "play to earn' model really work or at least survive?
More sources for both the info I've posted and for further reading, if you're interested in other's opinion
Play-to-earn sells the dream of gaming for cash — so why isn’t everyone playing?Axie Infinity Daily Active Users Drop 45% Since 2021 PeakAxie Infinity Making Big Changes to Fix Its Ailing Play-to-Earn NFT Economy