Trying to identify the bottom..

[mikeywith]

Three and a half years ago, I used some simple TA to identify the bear market bottom and was lucky/successful, this time, I will use the same exact tools and see how we stand.


1- 50 Moving Average on the monthly chart.



Never in BTC's history has it had a monthly close below the 50SMA, right now, it's at $20,600, back in 2018, we did not even touch it, the 50MA was 5-6% lower, and thus I expect a similar or better scnerio to unfold this cycle.

2- 200 Moving Average on the weekly chart.



Sitting pretty at $21,850, sometimes small wicks below it, but nobody has ever regretted buying BTC near the 200MA, ever.

3- The low 20k range is a major support/resistance level.

This historical ATH has a massive support potential, it's highly unlikely that we see even a daily close below this level, it's probably the place where the last bear will just sit on their hands and do nothing.


4- The Stochastic RSI on the monthly chart.



Pretty damn close to the 2015 and 2018 bottom levels.

5- The RSI on the monthly chart.




Currently sitting at 47.3, in the previous cycles it bottomed at 44.5, pretty close.

6- The ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart.[/b]



"Nothing much to say about this, it's clear that every time the red cloud appears, the bear market get's closer to end."

The cloud begins in July, so could July/Aug be the bottom? could very well be.


Finally, I'd like to quote myself

also keep in mind that the end of bearish trend does not mean the start of a bull run, it usually means a few months of consolidation between the bottom and the last high of the last leg down , which in our case if we were to assume 3k to be the bottom then the siedways market will be between 6k and 3k which can last from a few months to a whole a year before breaking the 6k and going on a bull run that will mark new ATHs.

This is not financial advice, trade safe. follow the trend.

We needed 4 months, to get out of the 3-6k zone, I won't be surprised if we take 4 months or even more to break free from the 20-40k trap, while all the indicators used in this topic point to more decrease in price and possibly 19-23k, timing the exact bottom is just stupid, 2-3 years from now if this turns out to be the bottom, it won't matter if you bought at 20k or 25k, just how it didn't matter buying at 3k or 4k back in 2018.

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[STT]

200 week I pay attention to but we can cross over, the 50 monthly might be a even better indication but a month is a long time to check its close.  Overall I agree it wont be an easy event, we'll be negative but just about able to climb back out and have to wait a while.  Other kind of bottom is a V fast down and fast up but seems like thats not going to be the case.

We're in the area of last years low, about 29247 which was June and July before it turned around so basically over a month to really stop scaring people out of the price action or 3 months if we say May as well.  So expect similar now, a longer fight to alter momentum downwards.

I think OBV shows we are acting negatively still, not sure anyone likes that indicator but I find easier to read and simplicity is all Im looking for because I think it relates to consensus.

[GreatArkansas]

Never in BTC's history has it had a monthly close below the 50SMA, right now, it's at $20,600, back in 2018, we did not even touch it, the 50MA was 5-6% lower, and thus I expect a similar or better scnerio to unfold this cycle.
(...)

This will be our hopium now, I am also rooting for it. This is one of the best technical analysis I saw so far for these recent dumps.
Sometimes it's good also to look to another side especially on the bearish side, for no bias.
It looks like the main support level for this cycle is the previous all-time-high last bull run 2017-2018, so it's on around $20,000.

[davis196]

Great analysis, but making technical analysis without fundamental analysis seems kinda pointless to me.
What if the Bitcoin price gets out of the bear market and right before the bull run something happens-a major FUD campaign, a government crypto ban, some big crypto project collapsing, a big crypto exchange getting hacked... All the technical analysis goes into oblivion.
OK, we all get it, the Bitcoin price is going to recover several months(or maybe a year) after the May price crash. We don't need technical analysis, in order to know this info.
The price bottom doesn't matter for the hardcore BTC HODLers. If you plan to HODL for years, does it even matter what the price bottom will be?18K, 20K or 25K?I understand that knowing when the price bottom will occur would be beneficial for the buyers, but almost nobody can have a perfect timing over the crypto markets.

[Lucius]

We needed 4 months, to get out of the 3-6k zone, I won't be surprised if we take 4 months or even more to break free from the 20-40k trap, while all the indicators used in this topic point to more decrease in price and possibly 19-23k, timing the exact bottom is just stupid, 2-3 years from now if this turns out to be the bottom, it won't matter if you bought at 20k or 25k, just how it didn't matter buying at 3k or 4k back in 2018.

I don’t have too many doubts in the long run, but I have to admit that all the TAs I’ve seen lately are pretty similar when it comes to a possible bottom. Although for most the loss of another 20-30% at the current price would be a real disappointment, we have already seen this in the past, of course only the numbers were different.

In any case, unless something really big and positive happens, it seems that we will have at least a year and a half (maybe two) in which there will be many more who will be disappointed than those who will take advantage of a new investment opportunity. Although it is necessary to understand ordinary people who were looking for some kind of shelter in Bitcoin but did not reckon that Bitcoin is not just a one-way street.

[Dhaniii]

good analysis in my opinion even though many analyzes fail at least every analysis can provide encouragement and enthusiasm for amateur investors. Looking at the chart presented, a bearish peak has occurred and a bullrun will occur in the future. based on my prediction, looking at the graph that in 2023 bitcoin will experience a sharp spike and can penetrate the previous high price.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Great post mikey & I agree with you about the potential bottom being between 19k & 23k. I sold 25% of my stash between 53.8k & 65k which I religiously hodled from 2014 & 2015. I started buying back at 31.8k & will continue all the way down.

The bottom is not yet in, I’m pretty certain of that.

[takuma sato]

If we enter a recession BTC will go below $20k, and then we enter some uncharted territory. Reason being, we've never gone below ATH's after such rises, and the fall would be due the fact that BTC continues to follow whatever the SP500 does and it can easily retest pre-covid levels before talking a real long lasting bottom. Until BTC manages to decouple from the SP500 you'll have to navigate the market that way.

[bittraffic]

The RSI in the weekly chart doesnt look like its had bottomed, if there is a bkunce of price it could just be what they call the dead cat.

However, the BTC/USD monthly chart doesnt alway touch the bottom, it just goes around 40 with its RSI. There is a possibility of it to speed its way up leaving dumpers burned.

[BITCOIN4X]

We needed 4 months, to get out of the 3-6k zone, I won't be surprised if we take 4 months or even more to break free from the 20-40k trap, while all the indicators used in this topic point to more decrease in price and possibly 19-23k, timing the exact bottom is just stupid, 2-3 years from now if this turns out to be the bottom, it won't matter if you bought at 20k or 25k, just how it didn't matter buying at 3k or 4k back in 2018.

Of course it would be very interesting if the cycle was repeated. I don't know if we will have it in the future and $20K or $25K being the bottom. But it's good to have this kind of thinking because actually optimism is very important and will help us be calm in investing. Anything can still change and I'm starting to think that as adoption continues to increase then volatility will be lower.

[speedy963]

Great post. It is pretty difficult to for nd the bottom but we can get close to it using indicators that suit our trading plans or way of analyzing chart's price movements. It was nice that you quoted what most of the newbies tend to misinterpret most of the time which is the reversal of trend from bearish to bullish vice versa. Most of the newbies expect an immediate pump just because the selling pressure is subsiding a lot. Which makes them create bad trading plans that usually ends up getting premature profits or worse, even suffer losses due to impatience caused by wrong expectations/hopium.

[Welsh]

I'll go in a bit more detail with my reply to LFC_Bitcoin, however I think technical analysis can basically go out of the window. We're heading for a massive recession, that most people alive have never experienced, and it might just be worse than the great depression after world war, it's hard to know the impact of recent events at the moment.

So, while I do appreciate the effort, and reasoning I just think that while this sort of analysis might have benefited us in the past, and been somewhat accurate, I don't think it'll have the same correlation as usual. Something, maybe you haven't quite factored in?

What do you think?

I agree with you about the potential bottom being between 19k & 23k.

Depends what you mean by the bottom, are we talking about the current cycle, calendar year, tax year or forever? If it's the latter I'd probably have similar confidence, however if it's any of the other three, I wouldn't be so sure. The world has gone through unprecedented times, we likely have a massive recession on our hands, only comparable to the 1900's, and yeah I'm specifically saying it'll be worse than the 2008/2009. Going through a pandemic isn't only going to have an effect on Bitcoin, but every single currency out there. Buying power will be down shortly, no one will be buying Bitcoin, because they'll be too busy buying the essentials, as inflation kicks our arses.

So, while I'm definitely confident in the long term, I'm not entirely confident we haven't hit the bottom of this year. Ultimately, that allows us with the will, and funds to invest further in Bitcoin at a discounted price. However, I suspect demand will be impacted, due to the above reasons. Bitcoin performed okay after the last recessions (that's if you truly believe we've recovered from that...) however this up, and coming recessions is going to really hard press a lot of people, and I believe it'll be one of the worst positions we've been in for a long time. The war with Russia, and Ukraine impacting fuel, and soon food costs will be bad enough on its own, but throw in a pandemic just before that, which the government has only just started raising things like taxes etc to recoup the amount they lost, I think we'll be struggling for a while.

[Ojima-ojo]

Great post mikey & I agree with you about the potential bottom being between 19k & 23k. I sold 25% of my stash between 53.8k & 65k which I religiously hodled from 2014 & 2015. I started buying back at 31.8k & will continue all the way down.

The bottom is not yet in, I’m pretty certain of that.

Whoops that most have been some good profits right there selling stashed Bitcoin from 2014-2015 at 53,8k and 65k that most have been the highest peak price to sell, this is why Bitcoin is best for long term holding.

[el kaka22]

I agree that if we are looking at the bottom of the bottom then we could assume that it could go down even more but I doubt that would happen. I am guessing that there is a good case to be made about the situation not being that much of a trouble, it looks like we are going to end up with something that is a bit more dangerous and would probably be looking at the wrong side of things.

If we are looking for a profit, then we can't wait for the bottom of the bottom, we need to end up with something that is risky since we may end up with something that will be hitting and then skyrocket back directly and that won't happen that easily.

[goaldigger]

It’s good to have thread like this since I’m also trying to figure out what’s the bottom for this bear market and I thought it was already hit since the current price is already at the $30k level again as of posting. Well, upon reviewing this analysis it looks like the market will correct again and maybe the bottom is going to below $20k which I think is better to be ready now. I’m still bullish though and excited to catch up in the bottom, hope to have the chance again to buy at a cheaper price.

[ultrloa]

It’s good to have thread like this since I’m also trying to figure out what’s the bottom for this bear market and I thought it was already hit since the current price is already at the $30k level again as of posting. Well, upon reviewing this analysis it looks like the market will correct again and maybe the bottom is going to below $20k which I think is better to be ready now. I’m still bullish though and excited to catch up in the bottom, hope to have the chance again to buy at a cheaper price.

The discussion about this is really helpful for people try to find the bottom and want to place their position. I also expect that the market will go below $20k because that's what the trend showing and maybe at that time I will place my position and see if I do short or do split up with long and short since I want to have both for better feature especially want to save some bits for next halving.

[kawetsriyanto]

I agree with you about the potential bottom being between 19k & 23k.

For me, it is still difficult to identify the bottom now, not sure what the price is. If BTC halving will still be the trigger for the next bullish, we still have around 2 years for this bearish. Because on May 12, BTC has dropped below $27k, I think the bottom is probably below $19k. I don't have a specific approach to predict this, but only considering we have still a lot of time for the bearish period. IMO

The bottom is not yet in, I’m pretty certain of that.

Sure. We just begin the bearish period, too early for the bottom.
I think we need some months to have the bottom. Theoretically, it may happen in the middle of the bearish period.

[Welsh]

For me, it is still difficult to identify the bottom now, not sure what the price is. If BTC halving will still be the trigger for the next bullish, we still have around 2 years for this bearish. Because on May 12, BTC has dropped below $27k, I think the bottom is probably below $19k. I don't have a specific approach to predict this, but only considering we have still a lot of time for the bearish period. IMO

What I will say, if we did dip beyond $19k, I imagine we'd take quite a bit time to recover. I can just imagine the pressure from the recession, but also a lot of people in their minds would be losing money, and mass panic would set in. I don't know what sort of time frame where we would bounce back, since I don't exactly know where we'll be in a few months time or a year from now. However, we definitely ain't rebounding from that within a few months. I know history might suggest otherwise, but I really do believe these are unprecedented times or at least what we have ahead of us, will be rather difficult for a lot of people.

I'm not much of a price watcher usually, but with the recession coming up, I'm quite interested on how Bitcoin, and its users will react. After all, Bitcoin was created due to a recession, and the fact that the banks messed up completely. Wondering if it spurs on adoption after it or will it make people lose faith for a while.

[adaseb]

Yes the 200WMA is one of the best indicators. It never closed below that number. Another one that you should look at is the MVRZ Score.

If you look at the past trends it predicted tops and bottoms very accurately. If you paid attention you could of sold the $65K top. When this score comes back into the range it should be when we are at the 200WMA or so. So a great buy confirmation.

[tbct_mt2]

I know Bitcoin is in the bottom area and it is good enough for real bitcoiners to accumulate discounting Bitcoin.

Bottom can be $20,000 or $15,000, we can not say what is the bottom now. You are right that $15,000 or $20,000 is not a real big issue if we buy it and hold for the next halving in 2024, only 2 more years.

History say when Bitcoin goes in bear market, it takes 2 years go get out so I think we will see bottom in 2023, in quarter 1 or quarter 2 of 2023.