Trying to identify the bottom..

[mikeywith]

I'll go in a bit more detail with my reply to LFC_Bitcoin, however I think technical analysis can basically go out of the window. We're heading for a massive recession, that most people alive have never experienced, and it might just be worse than the great depression after world war, it's hard to know the impact of recent events at the moment.

So, while I do appreciate the effort, and reasoning I just think that while this sort of analysis might have benefited us in the past, and been somewhat accurate, I don't think it'll have the same correlation as usual. Something, maybe you haven't quite factored in?

I don't disagree with this common belief, fundamentals can crush technical analysis with one bite that's for sure, I mean if WW3 starts or our planet is invaded by aliens, who would want to buy BTC? probably nobody, but since "we don't know what we don't know" you can't tell for certain that a recession is coming, I mean some folks have been calling for a recession for so many years now, it might take 10 more years to happen, maybe 40 years, we simply don't know.

Based on that, I believe it's wise to use the tools at our disposal, which is TA, when the market crashed in the first wave of the pandemic, it bounced off the 200MA on the weekly despite the fact that everyone was calling for a crash in the market, I remember how most people were shitting their pants and thinking of how are they going to die from the virus, but the markets made huge gains despite all the death and the fear.

This time things are slightly different, yes we have a major war in EU which could turn into nuclear war and take BTC to $100 or close to zero, but it could also end at any second, one might think the aftermath will be brutal and no way for us to recover, but keep in mind that people are sitting on billions of $$ that can enter the market at any moment, in the same time that people are now losing their money, homes and even lives, other people are making a fortune, where do you think all the money that these defense contractors are making will go to? I think it will find its way to the stock market and BTC sooner or later.

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[Welsh]

I don't disagree with this common belief, fundamentals can crush technical analysis with one bite that's for sure, I mean if WW3 starts or our planet is invaded by aliens, who would want to buy BTC? probably nobody, but since "we don't know what we don't know" you can't tell for certain that a recession is coming, I mean some folks have been calling for a recession for so many years now, it might take 10 more years to happen, maybe 40 years, we simply don't know.

I believe we've already had the big events that will cause the recession. I don't think we ever recovered from the last one. So, you could argue there's compounding events leading up to this recession.

I remember how most people were shitting their pants and thinking of how are they going to die from the virus, but the markets made huge gains despite all the death and the fear.

Right, however this was the case for most things. The housing market made a boom during the pandemic, and now it's showing signs of a crash. I mean, the government in the UK as an example were offering 5% loans, which is exactly what they did prior to the 2008/2009 recession. It's them identifying that without offering incentives, there's going to be a stale market, however the only thing when they do that is when interest rates increase, people then can't afford their mortgages. They also did a few other things like removing stamp duty completely, which is a sort of premium you pay on houses over a certain threshold, i.e another way to tax you.

This time things are slightly different, yes we have a major war in EU which could turn into nuclear war and take BTC to $100 or close to zero, but it could also end at any second, one might think the aftermath will be brutal and no way for us to recover, but keep in mind that people are sitting on billions of $$ that can enter the market at any moment, in the same time that people are now losing their money, homes and even lives, other people are making a fortune, where do you think all the money that these defense contractors are making will go to? I think it will find its way to the stock market and BTC sooner or later.

So, I don't think nuclear war is something that we have to worry about due to MAD, and game theory. However, the bad effects have already happened. We've never seen sanctions like this before, Western countries sanctioning Russia might have hurt the Western countries even more than Russia. A large amount of European countries relied on Russia for its gas, and oil. Now, we've seen massive increases, and I mean unheard of increases in fuel, and heating bills. People paying over 100% of what they were previously. America is a little different since they don't rely on them as much.



What has happened now is the housing market globally is showing signs of a crash. Houses were flying out of the door a couple months ago, and already we're seeing deals fall through because of the news about inflation. Inflation has gone up around 9% I believe in the last year alone. That's absolutely insane. Food prices due to the war going on are about to shoot up, since Ukraine, and Russia are a massive supplier of wheat etc. The government over here are already warning that heating bills will increase massively over the next year, which they've already been increased by over 100%. Interest rates of mortgages are starting to rise, with some predicting huge increases which basically means those that took up the government incentives of lower deposits, and higher loan to value, means they are going to struggle, and will likely have their house repossessed.

That's just a few examples of what has gone on. However, the governments also have to try, and recoup the billions they spent on the pandemic. That wasn't free when they bought all those vaccines, and it's almost comparable to world wars in the amount spent. Over in the uk national insurance has already increased, which basically equals more tax to try, and recoup. Our healthcare service was basically run into the ground, and I imagine the government are probably going to try, and privatise via claiming it can't cope with its current model, which is absolute horse crap, but there we go.

I know you said that we can't predict when the recession is coming, okay I'll give you that. However, we can absolutely be sure that one is coming. There's no maybes or buts about it. The recession is coming, and it's likely to be the biggest in living memory for a lot of people. Bitcoin, despite performing well during the pandemic, doesn't mean it'll perform well in a recession. Since, every market basically performed well in the pandemic. People were staying home, getting help from the government, and therefore were buying more. In a recession that stops, and Bitcoin likely will be impacted from it.

However, having said all of this, I will agree Bitcoin might surprise us. People might look for an alternative to fiat, due to the fact that inflation is going to sky rocketing, and people will probably for the first time notice that they'll never get anywhere in life, if they continue in the rat race. I think that's the only saving grace that Bitcoin has, technically it performed well after the 2008/2009 recession, and it offers a deflationary model, which benefits its users in the long run.  

So, taking into consideration all of the above, predicting the market in the next couple of months or few years could potentially be very difficult, and not actually follow previous years or conventional analysis. So, identifying the bottom or trying to predict it could be completely wrong. I don't know which way Bitcoin is going, it has proven me wrong before, but I do think that any analysis that has previously proven to be reliable, could potentially be completely unreliable considering these unprecedented times. 

[dezoel]

^It is definitely a reason to actually believe that we have been in a long recession ever since the 2008 one and never got back. There are some historians that say that we never had a world war 2, we had world war 1 that continued until 1945 because not only there were some troubles about the situation and at the same time it fired back up just 10 years later.

This should be something that we all care about, and that would be a one big long war instead of two different wars. Same could be said about the recession, that would be similar situation with it, I personally believe that even though there were some increases, it was still a big long recession with 10 year gap.

[Hypnosis00]

This should be something that we all care about, and that would be a one big long war instead of two different wars. Same could be said about the recession, that would be similar situation with it, I personally believe that even though there were some increases, it was still a big long recession with 10 year gap.

Then it means that we might fall to $5k again?
The market behavior is already changed, we can't just predict what really happens next. I'm not certain about a long market recession as the government will find solutions to any economic crisis that will come. That is only just a sort of market correction, the up and down of the economic growth give influence the capability of the individuals to make investments.

The continuing conflict between Russia and Ukraine affecting our financial capabilities but I don't think we have to consider this to make crypto reach the bottom again.

[Welsh]

This should be something that we all care about, and that would be a one big long war instead of two different wars. Same could be said about the recession, that would be similar situation with it, I personally believe that even though there were some increases, it was still a big long recession with 10 year gap.

I'd probably agree with that. I don't think we've ever recovered from recessions, not completely, and for me certainly not from 2008/2009. Basically, we've mitigated it as long as possible, but it was going to happen regardless of the pandemic or the war in the East happening. Unfortunately for us, both of those have happened, which means that the inevitable recession probably has only been escalated by recent events.

I don't know how that's going to effect Bitcoin, I only wanted to somewhat point out the possibility of somewhat reliable data in the past, not being so reliable these days due to the unprecedented events in recent months. I've never seen cost of living shoot up as much as it has done, and it has happened in a matter of weeks. Fuel is absolutely crazy, and most people invested in Bitcoin also have other jobs, so even if they wanted to buy more Bitcoin, they're going to effected by the cost of living increases, the unheard of inflation rise, there's just so many variables right now, I don't think anyone can accurately predict Bitcoin in the short term.

Then it means that we might fall to $5k again?
The market behavior is already changed, we can't just predict what really happens next. I'm not certain about a long market recession as the government will find solutions to any economic crisis that will come. That is only just a sort of market correction, the up and down of the economic growth give influence the capability of the individuals to make investments.

The continuing conflict between Russia and Ukraine affecting our financial capabilities but I don't think we have to consider this to make crypto reach the bottom again.

I'm not sure about going that low. There will still be buying power despite the problems we have. What you'll find is the rich will be accumulating more Bitcoin, while the poor who are more susceptible to these recent increases, won't be able to afford Bitcoin, therefore pushing prices down, but not to complete collapse or massively drastic prices in my opinion. I don't know what the bottom is, but $5k seems too low for me. Especially, when we do have a halving coming up in two ish years, which should help mitigate some issues, especially since inflation is rising with fiat, up to 9% I believe.

[stompix]

We needed 4 months, to get out of the 3-6k zone, I won't be surprised if we take 4 months or even more to break free from the 20-40k trap, while all the indicators used in this topic point to more decrease in price and possibly 19-23k, timing the exact bottom is just stupid,

Well, took only less than one month to reach that, congratulations !

Sitting pretty at $21,850, sometimes small wicks below it, but nobody has ever regretted buying BTC near the 200MA, ever.

Right now everyone is panicking since we just touched it briefly, I'm just so curious how this will unfold from here on if the trend is broken if the price does go below some indicators it has never touched before this will turn into one hell of beautiful mess.
But I don't see it going so much lower, so...you know, based on my accuracy, beware! 

I've never seen cost of living shoot up as much as it has done, and it has happened in a matter of weeks. Fuel is absolutely crazy, and most people invested in Bitcoin also have other jobs, so even if they wanted to buy more Bitcoin, they're going to effected by the cost of living increases, the unheard of inflation rise, there's just so many variables right now, I don't think anyone can accurately predict Bitcoin in the short term.
~
What you'll find is the rich will be accumulating more Bitcoin, while the poor who are more susceptible to these recent increases, won't be able to afford Bitcoin, therefore pushing prices down, but not to complete collapse or massively drastic prices in my opinion.

Lived through years of 20% and two of 40%, this is peanuts for those who have lived in the '90s in Eastern Europe, not even going to mention 3rd world countries who are used to over 100%. Still a lot of room left till panic mode!

But I do agree on the other part, despite what was painted for years, Bitcoin is definitely not going to save the poorest class and maybe not even the medium income one, after all, those are the ones who will run out of money so it will be impossible for them to buy coins or even keep them.  Happened all the time, it was the same with gold, the ones that had gold and were making a fortune out of it during the crisis were still the ones with money in the first place.
Bitcoin might save some persons on individual cases, a few out of thousands but it won't be able to protect the finances of a whole class or country.

[STT]

Commodities were the first currency long before we had this modern idea of paper.  Its not too much of a surprise that as part of the ending to this debt issuance, easy money and central banking overplay that we see the return and rise of commodities once more.  Having to pay these higher prices unmasks alot of what was already there waiting, that value must be exchanged for goods bought because this is required in a working economy we pay for what we use.

Dollar appearing to rise is something else, I think that is something of a hot air rise and it'll cool.   Weaker dollar does then also mean some prices continue to go up, dollar is the denominator to many prices.    Adjustment is necessary, its all part of the process so I guess we are talking 2022 for all this to settle out whatever the outcome its not something that occurs in days or weeks but longer so BTC is being tested like everything.  Its appropriate we are once again back to the longest term moving average, reflecting a rough 4 year period 200 week or 50 month.

[crwth]

With the current prices now, do you think many people don't want to be involved in cryptocurrencies? Imagine the news that it has dipped so much that those who have invested have lost a lot. I know that it's just too much for ordinary people to have invested so much in BTC, but it's just that dealing with people could be a saving grace from financial ruin.

This could be a blessing in a  few months if it rallies again into higher prices.

[adaseb]

I had an order that filled earlier in the day at the 200 WMA. So far it’s underwater. The way it’s going it looks like it will go to $20K. Stall there for a day or two and break and head lower.

Right now liquidity is horrible, there is tons of negative global news and depending what the fed says on Wednesday. It can be a horrible week.

I can see ETH breaking $1K and BTC breaking $20K.

[mikeywith]

Well, took only less than one month to reach that, congratulations !

The drop happened faster than i thought, so I am inclined to believe the recovery may take a bit longer, it is important to admit to the fact that the end of a bear market is not just a price target we hit and bounce of off, the sideways that can take months is even more difficult to watch.

As mentioned above by Welsh, we can not ignore the general macro, we could break below levels that we did not break below before, but then for someone who is trying to invest in bitcoin, what would it take for you to buy? It is not like you are putin's best friend to know when the war is about over, you do not date one of the decision makers in the U.S, you can not predict shit about all those factors, and once you and I are informed about the general health of the economy it will be too late to buy crypto.

So really, does not matter from here on if we dip any further, current prices are just good, 15k is better, 10k is even better, one should be prepared to accumulate at any given price, big or small it does not matter, what matter is, buying a solid asset at 70% off or more from ATH was never a bad idea. 

[Sir Legend]

A few days the bitcoin price continued to correct, even I was worried that if the bitcoin price dropped below $20k it would continue to fall below $10k, there are no major factors that affect the market, but many say that inflation in the USA and Europe is the cause of people selling assets including cryptocurrencies, and many experts believe there will still be a correction in the near future.

[Wilhelm]

A few days the bitcoin price continued to correct, even I was worried that if the bitcoin price dropped below $20k it would continue to fall below $10k, there are no major factors that affect the market, but many say that inflation in the USA and Europe is the cause of people selling assets including cryptocurrencies, and many experts believe there will still be a correction in the near future.

I think it's the miners trying to stay afloat by selling their coins to pay rent and power. The most are mining at a loss as far as I know.

And yes companies holding crypto will sell it to lower their high-risk assets.

I believe we will see major buying if we go below $19k. Once in a lifetime opportunity for anyone late in the game.

[mikeywith]

I think it's the miners trying to stay afloat by selling their coins to pay rent and power. The most are mining at a loss as far as I know.

Miners combined make a tiny portion of the trading volume that btc has, the selling pressure caused by miners is not that strong anymore.

Also i would not say that most miners are mining at a loss, it is more likely the other way around, proof is, difficulty keeps hitting a new ATH every month despite the 70% price drop, large corporate miners in the U.S have access to very cheap power and access to a lot of money, they are unlikely going to stop, it is the small miners who bought overpriced gears and mine at 15 cents per kWh that are getting screwed in this mess.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I had an order that filled earlier in the day at the 200 WMA. So far it’s underwater. The way it’s going it looks like it will go to $20K. Stall there for a day or two and break and head lower.

Right now liquidity is horrible, there is tons of negative global news and depending what the fed says on Wednesday. It can be a horrible week.

I can see ETH breaking $1K and BTC breaking $20K.

I think that is a real possibility that everyone is thinking about. A slight break towards 19,000 USD or so would be one thing, but as things stand it could look very gloomy.

In theory the 19-20,000 USD area should act as strong support because many people place buy orders in that area due to the historical pattern of bitcoin, which has never clearly and for a long time pierced the previous cycle high.

I believe we will see major buying if we go below $19k. Once in a lifetime opportunity for anyone late in the game.

I doubt it, for me the strong support is around 19-20 but if we go below 19.000 USD I think it will trigger a selling panic.

[ethereumhunter]

A few days the bitcoin price continued to correct, even I was worried that if the bitcoin price dropped below $20k it would continue to fall below $10k, there are no major factors that affect the market, but many say that inflation in the USA and Europe is the cause of people selling assets including cryptocurrencies, and many experts believe there will still be a correction in the near future.

I think it's the miners trying to stay afloat by selling their coins to pay rent and power. The most are mining at a loss as far as I know.

And yes companies holding crypto will sell it to lower their high-risk assets.

I believe we will see major buying if we go below $19k. Once in a lifetime opportunity for anyone late in the game.

It seems that the price of bitcoin can indeed be at $18k-$19k, especially if people panic about the situation that makes the price drop suddenly. If the price goes down to $19k again and some people are selling their bitcoins instantaneously, that will make people panic even more and push the price to keep going down. But if it does go down to $13k or even goes below $10k, it's a once in a lifetime opportunity that we can and should use to buy bitcoins and I agree with @Wilhelm. But honestly, I wouldn't expect the price to drop below $15k and I hope that doesn't happen.

[justdimin]

So really, does not matter from here on if we dip any further, current prices are just good, 15k is better, 10k is even better, one should be prepared to accumulate at any given price, big or small it does not matter, what matter is, buying a solid asset at 70% off or more from ATH was never a bad idea. 

I definitely agree that drops are fine, and there isn't anything that would be valuable at all, it will be profitable, but not worthy of it at all. If it drops to 10k, that would be great for us because we would be able to buy from that level and later on sell for 100k when that happens and make 10x, that is great and I agree with that part. But that means many of the things we worked hard to achieve in the crypto community would be gone, and I do not support that at all.

I believe that we should be focusing on getting better and higher at all times and make a profit like that, which would make a lot more sense to me to be fair because we would both earn money but also develop further.

[Semar Mesem]

Those who bought bitcoin a few hours ago were able to get a price of around $20k, and now the price of bitcoin has gone up to around $21k, maybe $20k price is a bottom, but we still have a chance to buy soon before the bitcoin price is more expensive, I sure tomorrow or the day after the price will be back to $ 25k.

[STT]

that will cause the recession. I don't think we ever recovered from the last one.

 I dont disagree as statistics are approximate, confusing thing is we can have a recession or negative GDP change yet the monetary base will continue to expand.   BTC doesnt have to follow one particular economy but mostly we track western type economies due to dollar dominance.   We all know there is massive over supply of dollar mostly in the future promissory or bonds, if that Bond market unwinds (ECB, BOJ etc.) that is the end game and I dont see BTC does badly compared to dollar excessive supply.  
  This is a tree shake, not everyone can hold on its typical in any commodity type market which is how I view BTC.    If ultimately dollar resolves to lower values every year and we've no reason to doubt that trend then BTC likely just reaches a low somewhere in its 4 year range of prices which people dont like but its not out of the blue that price will retract harshly.

Today is FED day, we get news in couple hours.  Check back then maybe something changes or not really because its already supposed to be 'telegraphed' or a known course.   Without easy money the tide goes out, it looks bare and the price is far lower at this low tide but I dont yet see anything to be very negative on.  If anything I kinda hope for overreaction in pricing because that can be a good trade but its more healthy when people can recognize BTC is not dictated by big banks, their hands are tied to the giant blocks of debt they carry but BTC can achieve whatever course it finds with the highest utility and value.

[Falconer]

 This is a tree shake, not everyone can hold on its typical in any commodity type market which is how I view BTC.    If ultimately dollar resolves to lower values every year and we've no reason to doubt that trend then BTC likely just reaches a low somewhere in its 4 year range of prices which people dont like but its not out of the blue that price will retract harshly.

Of course we can't expect everyone to be in the same position in the market today as concerns about bigger losses between swords are clearly becoming inevitable. Those worries have caused panic and also set the market on fire so far. However I never think of the current market conditions as something very negative because of course this is another opportunity that we should consider good for long term investment.

[Sir Legend]

Hopefully yesterday was the lowest record we've ever experienced, I don't want to see bitcoin price drop below $20k, there will be a lot of panic from users and make prices continue to fall, today the market is green again and up more than 3%, hopefully it continues to rise and the bottom price for now is $20400.