World has just ten weeks' worth of wheat left after Ukraine war

[Hydrogen]

Food supplies are being rocked by Russia's invasion of the 'breadbasket of Europe'

The world has just 10 weeks' worth of wheat stockpiled after Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine disrupted supplies from the "breadbasket of Europe".

The UN has been warned that global wheat inventories have fallen to their lowest level since 2008 as food supplies are rocked by a “one-in-a-generation occurrence”.

Official government estimates put world wheat inventories at 33pc of annual consumption, but stocks may have slumped to as low as 20pc, according to agricultural data firm Gro Intelligence. It estimates that there are only 10 weeks of global wheat supply left in stockpiles.

Russia and Ukraine account for around a quarter of the world’s wheat exports and the West fears Mr Putin is trying to weaponise food supplies. Russia is on track for a strong wheat harvest this year, cementing Mr Putin’s control over the staple grain as bad weather spoils production in Europe and the US.

Gro Intelligence chief executive Sara Menker warned global food supplies are being hit by a number of “extraordinary” challenges, including fertiliser shortages, climate disruptions and record low inventories of cooking oils and grains.

She told the UN’s Security Council: “Without substantial immediate and aggressive coordinated global actions, we stand the risk of an extraordinary amount of both human suffering and economic damage.

“This isn’t cyclical, this is seismic. It’s a once-in-a-generation occurrence that can dramatically reshape the geopolitical era.”

The war has disrupted agricultural production in the region and sent global food prices soaring to a record high, stoking fears of unrest in developing countries. The crisis in wheat has been worsened by India, the world’s second largest producer, banning exports of the cereal and higher costs for farmers from fertiliser, feed and fuel.

Western officials also fear the Russian president is deliberately trying to damage global food supplies by destroying equipment and stealing grain in Ukraine.

Earlier this week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned of “apocalyptic” food price rises as Ukraine struggles to export products.

“Ukraine does have food in store but it can’t get it out at the moment,” he told MPs on the Treasury Committee.

“That is a major worry. It is not just a major worry for this country, it is a major worry for the developing world.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday that Mr Putin is “using food as a weapon”.

“The food supply for millions of Ukrainians and millions more around the world has quite literally been held hostage.”

He added: “Some 20m tons of grain sit unused in Ukrainian silos as global food supply dwindle (and) prices skyrocket.”



Meanwhile, the Kremlin is tightening its grip on wheat supplies after a stronger harvest. Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities research at Rabobank, said mild conditions in Russia – which accounts for about a fifth of global wheat exports – had put it on track to produce 84.9m metric tonnes of the staple grain this year.

Conditions for Western growers have been poor due to dry conditions.

America’s southern plains region, as the bottom of the "Wheat Belt" that runs through the middle of the country, has been experiencing sustained drought conditions.

In a report earlier this month, the US Department of Agriculture forecast a major decline in wheat stocks, saying they will drop 6pc to a nine-year low of 16.8 million tonnes by the end of 2022/23.



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/20/world-has-just-ten-weeks-worth-wheat-left-ukraine-war/

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This may explain why russia launched missiles at odesa. To disrupt wheat exportation.

I'm not certain what proportion of european diets are derived from wheat sources. This seems as if it might be bad news.

We have had claims of "apocalyptic" food prices for awhile now. While naysayers claim it will not affect 1st world countries.

If food growers adopted a crypto token which was backed by food commodities and guaranteed a static exchange rate for a set number of tomatos, potatos, per token.

That could be a good format for future food emergencies.

[AmoreJaz]

for sure, these countries which are relying on ukraine's wheat will always find alternative sources like from china, india, US and other top wheat exporters. or look for wheat alternatives. i don't think they will wait for ukraine's supply just to go on with their lives. they know this situation is about to happen as the war is not yet ending. so high likely that they are already looking for other exporters. it is not the end of the world yet. so as long as we live, there's hope to find these alternative sources. and the reason why 1st world countries won't be affected by this situation is because there are other sources for wheat, maybe, if ukraine is the sole supplier but it is not.

[jackg]

I think if wheat becomes too expensive there are a lot of other types of grains that can be used to replace it that can be produced elsewhere or are already produced in abundance such as oat, barley and rice (these can be milled).

[romero121]

Looking for an alternate is the only choice than just thinking of the prevailing situation in Ukraine. The war have made a big impact in the world's economy. Initially it was oil and now the same is happening with food shortage. At this situation Ukraine itself experience shortage. It looks like the history is getting repeated. During the year 2008 the world faced a massive economic crisis and slowly everything got recovered. Once again everything have affected for some reason. This could've been avoided if countries have made proper storage for the produced wheat.

[ajochems]

People from all over the world suffering for the war impacts. The war of Ukraine and Russia was not end even after ten week was not a good news. By the gas price increase in the market, everything had increased. Which mainly include the food items, which directly reflected by the gas price increased. Still Ukraine getting financial help from all over the world, but the issue is the war not end yet.

[Moneyprism]

this is a problem for my country which imports more than 99% of wheat from abroad..our government is looking for a way so the mills can get a supply of wheat and can continue to operate

[_act_]

I have not consumed wheat for some months now, although it is sold in my country. If I can do without wheat and many people that I know can do without wheat when there are alternatives, then the countries that lacks wheat import can do without wheat.

What I just see is that wheat will still be available but its supply will reduce which would make its price to increase. What I am mostly concerned about is for this not to result in other food price increase but which is very likely.

We hope the war in Ukraine stops as soon as possible so that everything will become back to normal.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I have not consumed wheat for some months now, although it is sold in my country. If I can do without wheat and many people that I know can do without wheat when there are alternatives, then the countries that lacks wheat import can do without wheat.

What I just see is that wheat will still be available but its supply will reduce which would make its price to increase. What I am mostly concerned about is for this not to result in other food price increase but which is very likely.

Yes, I don't mind not eating bread or pasta for a while, the problem is that the animals are fed with wheat feed, so the price of meat is going to go up more than we are noticing, although the rise so far has been largely due to the rise in energy prices.

I think that at some point this will have to stabilise, because people have limited money, and if prices don't stop rising, in the end those who produce will not be able to sell because people won't be able to pay. We are now in a scenario of escalating prices that seems to have no end, but at some point it will come.

[bakasabo]

Amazing how a war in not biggest and leading country lead to an economical crisis. Amazing how war tactics did not improve in centuries. As in the past armies used exhaustion tactics to conquer castles and countries, as same happens now.

We have increased food prices. Later we will have what - a wheat war? In 21st century? Slowly turning into barbarians... What is going to be after supplies of wheat comes to an end? Which next recourse will be on the brink of extinction?

[be.open]

Amazing how a war in not biggest and leading country lead to an economical crisis. Amazing how war tactics did not improve in centuries. As in the past armies used exhaustion tactics to conquer castles and countries, as same happens now.

We have increased food prices. Later we will have what - a wheat war? In 21st century? Slowly turning into barbarians... What is going to be after supplies of wheat comes to an end? Which next recourse will be on the brink of extinction?

These are the unwanted fruits of globalization. Relations between different countries are so intricately intertwined that a local conflict can lead to disproportionate global consequences. And the global shortage of some important product by just a few percent can lead to a multiple explosive increase in prices in an industry that is highly dependent on this product in the production chain. So the threat of a shortage of wheat and sunflower oil can provoke a massive food crisis, and for example, a reduction in the supply of purified neon can cause a global crisis in the semiconductor industry. There is nothing to say about oil and gas.

[Lucius]

I also read that news a few days ago, but I wonder how much truth there is in it, and how much it is about journalistic exaggeration and placing sensational headlines. It is undeniable that some countries are heavily dependent on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia, and that Russia is using the lever to blackmail the world to lift some sanctions, but developments suggest the US and other countries will not allow the blockade of Ukrainian ports to continue indefinitely.

Ukraine has been asking for a long time, and it seems that the delivery of anti-ship missiles has finally been approved, which will mean a turning point in the war at sea. In the event that Ukraine receives such weapons, all Russian ships would be fully exposed and would have to withdraw or be destroyed. The only question is how long Russia will try to achieve some of its goals in this way, but it will certainly not last long - the unblocking of Black Sea ports will happen with the military defeat of the Black Sea Fleet or Russia's withdrawal before that.

WASHINGTON, May 19 (Reuters) - The White House is working to put advanced anti-ship missiles in the hands of Ukrainian fighters to help defeat Russia's naval blockade, officials said, amid concerns more powerful weapons that could sink Russian warships would intensify the conflict. Bryan Clark, a naval expert at the Hudson Institute, said 12 to 24 anti-ship missiles like the Harpoon with ranges over 100 km would be enough to threaten Russian ships and could convince Moscow to lift the blockade. "If Putin persists, Ukraine could take out the largest Russian ships, since they have nowhere to hide in the Black Sea," Clark said.

[hatshepsut93]

Ukraine has been asking for a long time, and it seems that the delivery of anti-ship missiles has finally been approved, which will mean a turning point in the war at sea. In the event that Ukraine receives such weapons, all Russian ships would be fully exposed and would have to withdraw or be destroyed. The only question is how long Russia will try to achieve some of its goals in this way, but it will certainly not last long - the unblocking of Black Sea ports will happen with the military defeat of the Black Sea Fleet or Russia's withdrawal before that.

I don't think it's realistic to expect de-blockade of Ukraine's sea ports via military means - Russia has capabilities to blockade the Black Sea not just by ships, but also by submarines, coastal defense systems, airpower. The only thing that can realistically shift the balance is a NATO intervention in the Black Sea, which we know is never going to happen.

What is going to happen is transportation of Ukrainian wheat via railroads. End of story.

[Ucy]

Well, I doubt President Putin is responsible for this. The whole thing was like a big brother Russia trying to correct her neighbor she seems to care about but busy bodies came and mess thing up.  
Always remember this is beyond Russia, and even if she decides to withdraw from Ukraine it won't be possible until the task has been completed without too much issues. If Russia deliberately errs she will definitely be punished but from what I have seen so far, she is more favoured by our CREATOR than busy bodies and others. The positive things happening there recently are not coincidence.


*Anyone moving against Russia when she is doing what is right will reap what they sow

[Mauser]

So far I didn't notice any panic buyers yet. Usually in my country people become crazy once the news spread that goods will run out. During the corona pandemic people where fighting for toilet paper. Maybe 10 weeks is enough to find alternative, but I would still expect for some people to stick up heavily on wheat. Given the sanctions the West has on Russia, I don't think they will lift their blockade of Ukrainian wheat exports. The question is now what kind of alternatives there are. The planting and harvesting process can't just be created overnight in a new country, it takes time. Maybe Asian countries could increase their Rice production and we start switching from wheat to rice. In the end this means food prices will rise even more.

[davis196]

If food growers adopted a crypto token which was backed by food commodities and guaranteed a static exchange rate for a set number of tomatos, potatos, per token.

That could be a good format for future food emergencies.

A crypto token backed by potatoes, tomatoes or even wheat cannot make those foods more abundant and less scarce.
Food prices will be going up, there's no way around this. Fertilizers are getting more expensive, wheat is really important for the livestock industry, which means that meat and milk will also become expensive.
The only way to survive is to:
1.Eat less.(kinda works if you are overweight and want to lose some weight).This isn't as crazy as it seems. The vast majority of the people are eating lots of junk food, which has very low nutritional value. You could eat way less and still feel completely full.
2.Have your own garden, or a piece of land and grow your own fruits and vegetables.

The situation is bad for the countries, that are relying on Ukrainian wheat, but they will have to import wheat from somewhere else(at a higher price).

[Sithara007]

~~~
This may explain why russia launched missiles at odesa. To disrupt wheat exportation.
~~~

Russia destroyed the bridge over Dniester estuary in order to stop the transport of NATO-supplied weapons. I don't think that it has anything to do with wheat exports. And it was the Ukrainian Navy who planted mines near the Odessa port, in order to prevent any landing attempts from the Russians. Odessa and Mykolayiv remains the only major ports controlled by Ukraine, after their loss of Mariupol and Berdyansk. And Mykolayiv is very close to the frontline and it can't be used. If Odessa port can't be used to transport wheat, then the only option left is to transport it through rail or road.

[Fortify]

This may explain why russia launched missiles at odesa. To disrupt wheat exportation.

I'm not certain what proportion of european diets are derived from wheat sources. This seems as if it might be bad news.

We have had claims of "apocalyptic" food prices for awhile now. While naysayers claim it will not affect 1st world countries.

If food growers adopted a crypto token which was backed by food commodities and guaranteed a static exchange rate for a set number of tomatos, potatos, per token.

That could be a good format for future food emergencies.

Well.. Russia clearly would want to take the whole Ukrainian coastline if they could, hell - they want the whole of Ukraine right now but are paying a high price for this war. These are secondary effects of the war and are very unlikely to be the main reasoning behind it, especially with all the extra bad will that it brings Russia around the world as they are going to be the major cause of mass starvation. It'd make more sense for profiteering from oil and gas at high prices rather than causing disruption to food supplies. I've said it before, but Europeans are going to be among the last people badly effected by this scenario compared to most of the world, sure prices will rise but the remaining wheat will be sold it the countries that can pay the most for it and Europe is richer compared to most of the world.

[Zlantann]

When this invasion started my concern was the lives and properties that would be wasted in Ukraine. I and my entire family wished we could do much to save the Ukrainian from suffering and pain. But as this invasion progressed I began to feel sorry for myself, family and countrymen too. Inflation caused by high cost of food and fuel is now ravaging my country. Companies are laying-off workers because of high cost of production. Crime rate has increased drastically because of unemployment and my nation if not checked is moving towards economic catastrophe. Recently the Head of African Development Bank (AfDB) warned that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would lead to wheat and fertilizer crisis in Africa that would drive the prices of some important food such as Maize and other grains to 60% price increase.  

This may explain why russia launched missiles at odesa. To disrupt wheat exportation.

That's true, it is a calculated war strategy. This war was planned for years and food blockage is one of Putin's war strategy. Kremlin used the same war strategy in Aleppo, Syria when they assisted government forces to cut off over 300,000 Syrians from food supplies. The seizing of the coastal cities of Kherson, Mariupol and Odesa was an intentional act to cause world food crisis. This was why Putin was not scared about sanctions because he knew that food and energy blockage would force NATO and its allies to review their sanctions. Recently Moscow has said that sanctions on Russia would have to be reviewed if it were to act on the UN appeal to open access to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports so that grain could be exported. But I am sure these inhuman strategies would not last for long because the world would gradually adjust to living without Russian supplies.  

[Flexystar]

Not sure if this is worrying thing because world is big, so many counties are out there who farm wheat and can get opportunity to export from their lands. If time comes then definitely those countries who are not in export business will have this opportunity and they should start doing business like this.

Moreover, if the shortage is so prominent then they will start searching for alternatives right from this date. That management is always there back of the mind of government and management team. Hope so these things do not escalate to the war situation.

[fiulpro]

It is not only essential to have an alternative but its also a necessity right now, with China hoarding all the food that they can buy it's clear that they do know that the war is not ending that soon they also seem to have clear relationship with Russia with them being in a state of conversation therefore I do think their move is right and many other countries should do that as well. There are major countries like : Pakistan where they use wheat 🌾 majorly as well, it's in almost each in every meal. They cannot just switch to other grain since it's more about being affordable and also it being healthy as well. Other major farming countries should supply these grains to these countries we cannot afford another famine.