World has just ten weeks' worth of wheat left after Ukraine war

[Gozie51]

Also I think that a lot of people are dramatizing this wheat situation. People will find a way to replace it with something else.

Exactly. I don't get why people blow things out of proportions unnecessarily sometimes despite being aware of all the facts.

Wheat can easily be replaced by rice etc  temporarily which is why it's not really a big deal. If people could survive something like COVID, they can definitely survive wheat shortage for a certain amount of time.

With the news that the price of wheat will go right to the sky after Russia invaded Ukraine I thought by this time that all the finished product from wheat would have disappeared but they are still very much around just a little more in price. So human have survived hardship from the beginning, the adaptive mechanism is there so you are right. Rice plays a substitute role to wheat likewise some others. The world provides us with substitute and that is why human is gifted with high knowledge to subdue and conquer.

[Sithara007]

After seeing how European economy got hit after sanctions and war, I dont that they will ban wheat export, because they are in need of money and Europe does not consume 100% of produced wheat. Also I think that a lot of people are dramatizing this wheat situation. People will find a way to replace it with something else.

WTF?

Replacing it with something else? Russia and Ukraine are leading producers of wheat, barley, rye and oats. Who is going to replace all this production. And let's not forget the fact that the production of rice is negatively impacted by sky high prices for NPK and DAP-Potash fertilizer. Russia and Belarus produce around one-third of this supply and they are under sanctions from the west. Other producers doesn't have spare capacity to ramp up production. Maybe you are suggesting to replace wheat with cassava from Africa or Brazil or potato from Ireland?

[TheCoinGrabber]

It's unfortunate but the people in countries relying on Ukraine for wheat would have to find their carb from somewhere else. There are many different replacement like rice, corn, cassava, potato, sweet potato and even plantain.

I think the problem here would be cultural and more, they will definitely crave their "daily bread". I'm from a rice country and even when I feel full eating a meal of wheat pasta or bean noodles, I feel that I still need to eat something. This is what they are going experience in the coming months if things don't improve.

[Naficopa]

It's unfortunate but the people in countries relying on Ukraine for wheat would have to find their carb from somewhere else. There are many different replacement like rice, corn, cassava, potato, sweet potato and even plantain.

I think the problem here would be cultural and more, they will definitely crave their "daily bread". I'm from a rice country and even when I feel full eating a meal of wheat pasta or bean noodles, I feel that I still need to eat something. This is what they are going experience in the coming months if things don't improve.

Yes - that is correct.
Countries depending on Ukraine for wheat should another source - Also the countries which were depending on Russia for oil and gas supply should find an alternative as well. But do you think it is possible particularly at this time? I think not

[TimeTeller]

It's unfortunate but the people in countries relying on Ukraine for wheat would have to find their carb from somewhere else. There are many different replacement like rice, corn, cassava, potato, sweet potato and even plantain.

I think the problem here would be cultural and more, they will definitely crave their "daily bread". I'm from a rice country and even when I feel full eating a meal of wheat pasta or bean noodles, I feel that I still need to eat something. This is what they are going experience in the coming months if things don't improve.

Yes - that is correct.
Countries depending on Ukraine for wheat should another source - Also the countries which were depending on Russia for oil and gas supply should find an alternative as well. But do you think it is possible particularly at this time? I think not

I believe some of these countries have other sources of wheat.
I don't think a certain country will only depend on one supplier of their staple food.
So I am not really worried about this issue because there will be other suppliers around the globe.
Who knows, they will find cheaper alternatives because of this shortage?
There will always be contingencies that will be put in place here.
And besides, Ukraine is not really the very top producer of wheat, China is.

[Sithara007]

I believe some of these countries have other sources of wheat.
I don't think a certain country will only depend on one supplier of their staple food.
So I am not really worried about this issue because there will be other suppliers around the globe.
Who knows, they will find cheaper alternatives because of this shortage?
There will always be contingencies that will be put in place here.
And besides, Ukraine is not really the very top producer of wheat, China is.

Most of us have a preference for the grain that we consume. Here in India, people in Northern and Western states prefer wheat and corn, while those in the South and East prefer rice and finger millet. Now their food habits won't change all of a sudden, even if there is a large increase in prices. And regarding China, although they produce a huge quantity of wheat, there is still a shortfall. In order to cover this shortfall, they need to import wheat from other countries such as Russia, Australia and Ukraine.

[bakasabo]

After seeing how European economy got hit after sanctions and war, I dont that they will ban wheat export, because they are in need of money and Europe does not consume 100% of produced wheat. Also I think that a lot of people are dramatizing this wheat situation. People will find a way to replace it with something else.

WTF?

Replacing it with something else? Russia and Ukraine are leading producers of wheat, barley, rye and oats. Who is going to replace all this production. And let's not forget the fact that the production of rice is negatively impacted by sky high prices for NPK and DAP-Potash fertilizer. Russia and Belarus produce around one-third of this supply and they are under sanctions from the west. Other producers doesn't have spare capacity to ramp up production. Maybe you are suggesting to replace wheat with cassava from Africa or Brazil or potato from Ireland?

We have so many scientists. We have learned how to make an ice cream that would taste like pickles, we have special meat for vegetarians. GMO products, square watermelons and other weird food. We have thousands labs that works on developing new taste or modifying it. Pharmacology has made a huge step from medieval times. And after all that we can not create a miracle potion, that will turn potato into wheat, or create a product with compounds and product properties be identical to wheat?

[merchantofzeny]

Amazing how that one country alone is being relied on for wheat by several countries and that it not being able to export could cause unrest in these. Also starkly reminds us of how interconnected our countries has become that many are no longer able to feed themselves efficiently.

If does come to a no-more-wheat scenario, there's really no choice but to eat something else. When our country started having rice shortages a few decades ago, people ended up having to eat more sweet potato and cassava. So maybe less pita and more pilaf for the Middle Easterners, for example. Tortilla ain't that bad either.

Actually a lot of countries are bring relied on for various goods and Ukraine is one of the major exporter for wheat. And when one major exporter have been disrupted, other countries tend to be disrupted as well. However, this disruption will not last forever as government will search for alternative to import from.
Just like what happened with you when shortage happened on rice, but later on rice has been available but it came from other country instead and a price fluctuations due to changes on importer of rice.

Yes, the market kinda corrects it eventually. However there is the problems that the other producers might also limit their exports. I just think that the real risk is some of these importing regions are volatile and that's what people are worrying about - that a few weeks of shortages would make these areas erupt again.

[DrBeer]

By the way - Ukraine is ready to fulfill its contractual obligations for the shipment of wheat. There are only 2 small nuances:
1. Theft of wheat stocks in the southern regions of Ukraine, temporarily occupied by Russian terrorist troops.
2. The economic terrorism of Russia, in the form of blocking the seaports of Ukraine, to disrupt navigation and, accordingly, the ability to send the same wheat to buyers. Moreover, for the unblocking of ports, Russia, like a real terrorist, demands a "ransom" - the lifting of sanctions.

But nothing, Ukraine will make every effort to help and prevent hunger, and most likely will make delivery by rail.

[ultrloa]

After seeing how European economy got hit after sanctions and war, I dont that they will ban wheat export, because they are in need of money and Europe does not consume 100% of produced wheat. Also I think that a lot of people are dramatizing this wheat situation. People will find a way to replace it with something else.

WTF?

Replacing it with something else? Russia and Ukraine are leading producers of wheat, barley, rye and oats. Who is going to replace all this production. And let's not forget the fact that the production of rice is negatively impacted by sky high prices for NPK and DAP-Potash fertilizer. Russia and Belarus produce around one-third of this supply and they are under sanctions from the west. Other producers doesn't have spare capacity to ramp up production. Maybe you are suggesting to replace wheat with cassava from Africa or Brazil or potato from Ireland?

We have so many scientists. We have learned how to make an ice cream that would taste like pickles, we have special meat for vegetarians. GMO products, square watermelons and other weird food. We have thousands labs that works on developing new taste or modifying it. Pharmacology has made a huge step from medieval times. And after all that we can not create a miracle potion, that will turn potato into wheat, or create a product with compounds and product properties be identical to wheat?

Maybe this only applicable on certain area where they study since they could possibly make this things happen there, but if we talk about globally maybe this studies will not really happen nor even implemented immediately knowing that not all the country are so advance to modern technology. Maybe the right solution about this is every country should boost their agricultural sector so that we cannot experience this crisis since everyone can sustain their own country with their agricultural product and anything in agricultural side.

[Sithara007]

By the way - Ukraine is ready to fulfill its contractual obligations for the shipment of wheat. There are only 2 small nuances:
1. Theft of wheat stocks in the southern regions of Ukraine, temporarily occupied by Russian terrorist troops.
2. The economic terrorism of Russia, in the form of blocking the seaports of Ukraine, to disrupt navigation and, accordingly, the ability to send the same wheat to buyers. Moreover, for the unblocking of ports, Russia, like a real terrorist, demands a "ransom" - the lifting of sanctions.

But nothing, Ukraine will make every effort to help and prevent hunger, and most likely will make delivery by rail.

I don't think that the massive wheat stocks can be moved by rail. First of all, Ukraine wheat mainly goes to the middle east and Asia, and for that they require the wheat to be transported to ports in the Black Sea. And secondly, the railway infrastructure in Ukraine is in ruins, as far as I heard. A number of bridges were destroyed as a result of bombing and few of the railway lines are working. And then it needs to be seen how economical it is to transport the wheat to countries such as Poland and then to re-export that stock. The logistics involved would mean that such a step doesn't make any sense economically.

[TheCoinGrabber]

It's unfortunate but the people in countries relying on Ukraine for wheat would have to find their carb from somewhere else. There are many different replacement like rice, corn, cassava, potato, sweet potato and even plantain.

I think the problem here would be cultural and more, they will definitely crave their "daily bread". I'm from a rice country and even when I feel full eating a meal of wheat pasta or bean noodles, I feel that I still need to eat something. This is what they are going experience in the coming months if things don't improve.

Yes - that is correct.
Countries depending on Ukraine for wheat should another source - Also the countries which were depending on Russia for oil and gas supply should find an alternative as well. But do you think it is possible particularly at this time? I think not

Food I think would easier to switch to a different supplier or buy a totally different one (like the alternatives I've mentioned). With oil and gas though it'll take longer to build new pipelines.

This is one reason Russia invaded - the pipelines are already built and Ukraine can use those to export their own gas that has been discovered there - in areas conveniently occupied by Russia now. That would have provided an alternative to Europe.

[DrBeer]

By the way - Ukraine is ready to fulfill its contractual obligations for the shipment of wheat. There are only 2 small nuances:
1. Theft of wheat stocks in the southern regions of Ukraine, temporarily occupied by Russian terrorist troops.
2. The economic terrorism of Russia, in the form of blocking the seaports of Ukraine, to disrupt navigation and, accordingly, the ability to send the same wheat to buyers. Moreover, for the unblocking of ports, Russia, like a real terrorist, demands a "ransom" - the lifting of sanctions.

But nothing, Ukraine will make every effort to help and prevent hunger, and most likely will make delivery by rail.

I don't think that the massive wheat stocks can be moved by rail. First of all, Ukraine wheat mainly goes to the middle east and Asia, and for that they require the wheat to be transported to ports in the Black Sea. And secondly, the railway infrastructure in Ukraine is in ruins, as far as I heard. A number of bridges were destroyed as a result of bombing and few of the railway lines are working. And then it needs to be seen how economical it is to transport the wheat to countries such as Poland and then to re-export that stock. The logistics involved would mean that such a step doesn't make any sense economically.

I agree that now it will be difficult to establish a stable and full-scale supply of grain by land (railway) transport. Yes, the largest importers of Ukrainian grain are the countries of Asia, Africa and partly the countries of Europe. That is why Russia, as a typical terrorist, introduced from the first days of a new wave of aggression against Ukraine, a total blockage of shipping. Therefore, all the countries affected by the shortage of grain can "thank" the international terrorist represented by Russia. But Ukraine still, even in such a difficult situation, will try to fulfill its obligations. Now everyone is starting to "pay" for the fact that they did not stop the terrorists and new fascists in a timely manner. The world repeated the mistakes of the last century, trying to appease the evil, and allowing him "little pranks". The world has learned nothing, and now it pays for mistakes again

[ultrloa]

It's unfortunate but the people in countries relying on Ukraine for wheat would have to find their carb from somewhere else. There are many different replacement like rice, corn, cassava, potato, sweet potato and even plantain.

I think the problem here would be cultural and more, they will definitely crave their "daily bread". I'm from a rice country and even when I feel full eating a meal of wheat pasta or bean noodles, I feel that I still need to eat something. This is what they are going experience in the coming months if things don't improve.

Yes - that is correct.
Countries depending on Ukraine for wheat should another source - Also the countries which were depending on Russia for oil and gas supply should find an alternative as well. But do you think it is possible particularly at this time? I think not

Food I think would easier to switch to a different supplier or buy a totally different one (like the alternatives I've mentioned). With oil and gas though it'll take longer to build new pipelines.

This is one reason Russia invaded - the pipelines are already built and Ukraine can use those to export their own gas that has been discovered there - in areas conveniently occupied by Russia now. That would have provided an alternative to Europe.

Its hard to switch if many country is not executing to plant those product and they have other things exist on their country. But if more country will realize that they are lacking an important product and want to became self sustaining country then maybe they should look at this aspects and make their country great by investing on those resources which can help their country to boost up.

Those what happen to Russia is wake up call to all government on any parts of the world to find a solution towards ongoing crisis brought up by certain products hold on that country.

[Sithara007]

Food I think would easier to switch to a different supplier or buy a totally different one (like the alternatives I've mentioned). With oil and gas though it'll take longer to build new pipelines.

This is one reason Russia invaded - the pipelines are already built and Ukraine can use those to export their own gas that has been discovered there - in areas conveniently occupied by Russia now. That would have provided an alternative to Europe.

No. It is not easier to switch to a different supplier in case of food. You might not have noticed this, but rice production is also getting impacted from this war (Potash fertilizer which is needed for rice cultivation is in short supply, as Russia and Belarus contribute almost 40% of the global supply). And now coming to pipeline gas, there is already an "alternate" pipeline to transport Azeri gas to the Europe. But the gas production in Azerbaijan has not kept up with the expectations and the pipeline is now transporting far less volumes than it was originally designed to.

[Kakmakr]

Luckily for us.... The United States   exports 26,131,626 tonnes of wheat a year and Canada does 26,110,509 tones, with France doing about 19,792,597 tonnes..... should I continue with all the other countries that export Wheat?

This is a "Storm in a Cup" that are being fabricated to inflate the price of "Wheat" ....so that prices can go up. Like they are doing with the price of Fuel. 

[cabron]

By the way - Ukraine is ready to fulfill its contractual obligations for the shipment of wheat. There are only 2 small nuances:
1. Theft of wheat stocks in the southern regions of Ukraine, temporarily occupied by Russian terrorist troops.
2. The economic terrorism of Russia, in the form of blocking the seaports of Ukraine, to disrupt navigation and, accordingly, the ability to send the same wheat to buyers. Moreover, for the unblocking of ports, Russia, like a real terrorist, demands a "ransom" - the lifting of sanctions.

But nothing, Ukraine will make every effort to help and prevent hunger, and most likely will make delivery by rail.

I don't think that the massive wheat stocks can be moved by rail. First of all, Ukraine wheat mainly goes to the middle east and Asia, and for that they require the wheat to be transported to ports in the Black Sea. And secondly, the railway infrastructure in Ukraine is in ruins, as far as I heard. A number of bridges were destroyed as a result of bombing and few of the railway lines are working. And then it needs to be seen how economical it is to transport the wheat to countries such as Poland and then to re-export that stock. The logistics involved would mean that such a step doesn't make any sense economically.

I agree that now it will be difficult to establish a stable and full-scale supply of grain by land (railway) transport. Yes, the largest importers of Ukrainian grain are the countries of Asia, Africa and partly the countries of Europe. That is why Russia, as a typical terrorist, introduced from the first days of a new wave of aggression against Ukraine, a total blockage of shipping. Therefore, all the countries affected by the shortage of grain can "thank" the international terrorist represented by Russia. But Ukraine still, even in such a difficult situation, will try to fulfill its obligations. Now everyone is starting to "pay" for the fact that they did not stop the terrorists and new fascists in a timely manner. The world repeated the mistakes of the last century, trying to appease the evil, and allowing him "little pranks". The world has learned nothing, and now it pays for mistakes again

Its Ukraine that blocked their Oddesa ports, its a self inflicted sanction actually as they tried to drop their sea mines and it all scattered on their ports so everyone are now afraid to sail there. Mind you that Russia didn't got their Oddesa ports yet and its where they ship their grains too.

There's still two months for all of us to prepare. I guess the hunger will make decisions cloudier. But there's also Asia that has more rice which I think will be the best option, we can all be adventurous with out meals.

[bakasabo]

Maybe this only applicable on certain area where they study since they could possibly make this things happen there, but if we talk about globally maybe this studies will not really happen nor even implemented immediately knowing that not all the country are so advance to modern technology. Maybe the right solution about this is every country should boost their agricultural sector so that we cannot experience this crisis since everyone can sustain their own country with their agricultural product and anything in agricultural side.

But the science has gone far away from times when microscope was a miracle. I strongly believe that scientists can disassemble into molecules anything and everything and find a way to substitute parts or reproduce them.

For example, already in 1996 scientists managed to create a sheep clone - Dolly. Dolly has lived for 6 years and produced 6 lambs. Dolly was a living organism, when we talk about wheat and it is 2022 outside. I believe that lack wheat is not our planets biggest problem.

[tygeade]

Also I think that a lot of people are dramatizing this wheat situation. People will find a way to replace it with something else.

Exactly. I don't get why people blow things out of proportions unnecessarily sometimes despite being aware of all the facts.

Wheat can easily be replaced by rice etc  temporarily which is why it's not really a big deal. If people could survive something like COVID, they can definitely survive wheat shortage for a certain amount of time.

The "unnecessary" part is subjective, you may not believe that to be a problem but there will be a ton of people who will be caring about it, and they will make it a big deal, tons of nations rely on wheat to go on, and there are tons of nations who eat bread which is made out of wheat for most cases. Of course, there could be alternatives, but why should there be?

The sad thing is, we have enough lands to produce any food we want, we have enough cattle or anything you want to raise them and breed them and be enough for everyone, and yet we don't, why? That question is very important, why don't we have it when we can? The answer will give you the result of why we are in trouble financially in this world.

[Naficopa]

The "unnecessary" part is subjective, you may not believe that to be a problem but there will be a ton of people who will be caring about it, and they will make it a big deal, tons of nations rely on wheat to go on, and there are tons of nations who eat bread which is made out of wheat for most cases. Of course, there could be alternatives, but why should there be?

The sad thing is, we have enough lands to produce any food we want, we have enough cattle or anything you want to raise them and breed them and be enough for everyone, and yet we don't, why? That question is very important, why don't we have it when we can? The answer will give you the result of why we are in trouble financially in this world.

I think there is so much propaganda involved in the hype as well.
I spoke to a Ukrainian friends and she said - we are in trouble but they will be okie, Ukraine has got a lot of support from other countries as well. So I am not sure that limited wheat availability is a real news.