BTC -85% FROM ATH IN NOVEMBER.....

[thevoyager23]

I looked at BTC on the MONTHLY and zoomed out to "ALL" and looked at the RSI..

To me there has only been 3 big bull runs... We are just slipping down from that 3rd one now.

The 2013/2014...... 2017/2018..... and the 2020/21......

The first 2 both lost 85% before reversing upwards.. Can we expect the same now? 

We keep hearing "INSTITUTIONAL ADOPTION" and a bunch of other buzzwords but why wouldn't it be similar?

If we are to go 85% down from November ATH we can expect a $10,000 - $12,000 BTC..

Although the flag pole from the obvious bear flag that formed since November 17th takes us to $17/18k BTC..

Would love to hear some thoughts.

[rhomelmabini]

Everything is possible so expect the worst and best scenarios. It's love to know that Bitcoin will still be doing history stuffs in price and -85% from its ATH is juicy for those who really want to catch that drop, this isn't a financial advice but if anyone thinks it's bear market then be safe by converting it on stablecoins.

Yeah, we are having that institutional adoption thing and it's a fact considering how huge they get onto the space in the recent years. Some institutional haters turns out to be pro now in crypto and in the fundamental side, they are considered still huge part in this bull run. Speculating in a bear market surely makes other to miss their marks since prices fall down that easily if driven by market panic selling.

[Pente]

In those previous times, we had an exponential bubble before the 80%+ crash. There was no exponential bubble this time, so I don't expect the pullback to be as severe.

[NeuroticFish]

The first 2 both lost 85% before reversing upwards.. Can we expect the same now?  

We keep hearing "INSTITUTIONAL ADOPTION" and a bunch of other buzzwords but why wouldn't it be similar?

Well, hope for the best, but expect the worse.
Institutional investors are a fact. This time/cycle the rise was not so stiff, this time we had 2 distinct ATH formations, we are already pretty far from the last halving and this "crypto winter" was not so bad yet.
Will it get worse? I don't know. Buit with every day passing we are getting closer to the next halving and the end of this cycle.

Was this softened rise and fall a result of institutional investors? Highly possible. Will they buy more if the price goes lower? Also highly possible, since this is the actual meaning of buying low (but they may also sell, hence next ATH may no longer be "fantastic").

But, as I keep saying, we don't know anything for sure until the cycle ends. Then we can look back and make a proper review. Until then .. it's just guessing and hoping.

[Ararbermas]

Well obviously at the current situation it's possible, but who knows since we are in the crypto market, wherein, so easy to manipulate by the whales. I mean for sure if there's a good news there will be a changes even the higher time frames is showing negative.  It's very down indeed so if whales take over in the market again even still negative, surely itcoin still have potential to recover this year despite of the situation.

[Welsh]

The thing is, at the moment we're in unprecedented times. The past bull runs didn't have pandemic which effectively halted the world for a few months. Also, past bull runs weren't effected by the very real possibility of a looming recession, one that probably will be the biggest most people see in their lifetime.
 

I don't know. Buit with every day passing we are getting closer to the next halving and the end of this cycle.

That would be my advice to anyone that has already lost, and can afford to lose whatever they've invested in Bitcoin. The halving has some significance, and it could potentially be the time where we see a new all time high or a recovery. I expect, with the current climate around the world, governments increasing fees, inflation on the rise, and the impact of the war in the East, we'll likely see some low figures in Bitcoin for a while.

The halving which is two ish years away, might be when we start climbing out, as we'll likely either be in the middle of a recession or on our way to mitigating its effects.

[thevoyager23]

I used the trading view BARS PATTERN from 2014 peak and 2018 peak and overlaid them to last peak in 2021, it leaves us at $24k bitcoin... So a lot higher than my $12k and $18k bitcoin from original post.

I guess it's trying to understand which would be the most useful indicators, but also we can't factor in black swan events, for example this MONKEYPOX joke they are trying to create now, or more Western intervention into Ukraine.

I guess unless we can honestly read charts like a pro, the best call of action is DCA in over time..

I am confident to at least have found the bottom by between Feb/March 2023 and June/July 2023 so possibly in the time from now till Match keep learning TA and understanding the macro and micro aspects to crypto!

[buwaytress]

Why wouldn't it be similar is what goes through my head all the time, so I'm prepared for that, hunkering down for it in fact. The good news is, if it does happen, the pullback upwards will be swift. The bad news is, of course, once that happens, we could see worse.

One argument that this is different though is that the supercycle seems to be over. We've seen ATH of 100 times the previous, then 15 times the previous, and now only 3 times the previous. That could also signal an end to the extreme dip.

One never knows.

[Welsh]

Why wouldn't it be similar is what goes through my head all the time, so I'm prepared for that, hunkering down for it in fact. The good news is, if it does happen, the pullback upwards will be swift. The bad news is, of course, once that happens, we could see worse.

Well, eventually the market will stagnate. That's almost a guarantee, however we're probably a long way off of that, and the drama probably won't end for quite some time. Although, the reason that it might not repeat as much as we would like is the economic situation we find ourselves, and I think Bitcoin is still somewhat failing at convincing the masses that a deflationary currency by design, is the better option to their fiat currencies that are designed to be inflationary, and basically keep the poor, poor. I think the major problem is the complexity of Bitcoin, simply put we need to dumb it down a little bit, without compromising security. It's possible, since fiat has done it. Fiat is complex, yet most people don't understand it, but keep using it. We need to achieve that level of trust, and simplicity with Bitcoin.

[thevoyager23]

One argument that this is different though is that the supercycle seems to be over. We've seen ATH of 100 times the previous, then 15 times the previous, and now only 3 times the previous. That could also signal an end to the extreme dip.

Can you just explain this?

[d5000]

First of all: we had only two times where the often mentioned bull-bear 4-year-cycle pattern with 85% depreciation really occurred: 2011-14 and 2015-18. So the statistical evidence for that pattern being a "rule" set in stone is pretty low.

Both cycles were also very different if we look at the details: the run-up in 2013 was much more "wonky" than the one in 2017, with a 80% loss in the middle of it (April to July: 250$ to 50$) which could well be described as its own bull-bear cycle. Also, 2011 is often forgotten: it's also a short cycle (5 months of bear market June - November 2011) and with a loss of over 90%. 2019-20 was unpreceded: a strong bull run not related to any halving, followed by a crash to the previous low (although the pandemic was also an unique event).

The problem is that we don't have really good fundamental indicators* with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, so we search for patterns like the "bull-bear 4-year cycle" to guide our investments. It is obvious that there will, for some time still, periods of hype and others of (perceived) waning interest - like now it seems - but this applies to every asset.

Well, eventually the market will stagnate. That's almost a guarantee, however we're probably a long way off of that, and the drama probably won't end for quite some time.

Agree. Long term volatility (btcvol) is already decreasing albeit in very, very broad steps. But if we compare the current "hiccups" with those in 2014 or even in 2018 or 2020, situation is already much more stable (we perceived the past weeks as a "deep crash", but if we look at this graph the 4,5% volatility spike is barely noteworthy).

I think Bitcoin is still somewhat failing at convincing the masses that a deflationary currency by design, is the better option to their fiat currencies that are designed to be inflationary, and basically keep the poor, poor.

I'm not convinced that Bitcoin really needs do that to succeed - i.e. it can also have success being a global currency which coexists with fiat currencies, very much like it occurs with gold, but with much better transferability (so it can really be used as a currency, above all for international transactions). I think this is a more likely outcome than Bitcoin "replacing" all fiat currencies. Traditional monetary policy has some advantages in some cases, being able to somewhat leveling market distortions only by manipulating the perception of "value" by increasing or decreasing money supply. I could imagine some similar mechanisms with Bitcoin involving bitcoin-based stablecoins, but it would not be as flexible as the "fiat way". As a reserve currency that "holds its value", Bitcoin is, in contrast, much better suited than fiat currencies, due to the inflationary nature of the latter (as you write).

*I somewhat like crypto.com's estimation of cryptocurrency users. It is an ex-post indicator (i.e. you only can describe the past with it) but it gives some indication if we're on the right track. More exchanges should do similar research, I think.

[aoluain]

Why wouldn't it be similar is what goes through my head all the time, so I'm prepared for that, hunkering down for it in fact. The good news is, if it does happen, the pullback upwards will be swift. The bad news is, of course, once that happens, we could see worse.

Well, eventually the market will stagnate. That's almost a guarantee, however we're probably a long way off of that, and the drama probably won't end for quite some time. Although, the reason that it might not repeat as much as we would like is the economic situation we find ourselves, and I think Bitcoin is still somewhat failing at convincing the masses that a deflationary currency by design, is the better option to their fiat currencies that are designed to be inflationary, and basically keep the poor, poor. I think the major problem is the complexity of Bitcoin, simply put we need to dumb it down a little bit, without compromising security. It's possible, since fiat has done it. Fiat is complex, yet most people don't understand it, but keep using it. We need to achieve that level of trust, and simplicity with Bitcoin.

People/we continue using it because its familiar, Bitcoin is not familiar to the masses.

You would think that high wealth people would be looking to Bitcoin in these uncertain
times, maybe they are waiting for a bigger bargain but how much of a bargain will we see?

I believe Bitcoin hasnt fallen below previous ATH's post halving, the last post halving
was December 2017 > $20,000

After the big pullback from the 2017 ATH the price didnt go near the previous ATH of 2013!
so maybe this will be the case this year and into 2023.

[OgNasty]

To me there has only been 3 big bull runs... We are just slipping down from that 3rd one now.

The 2013/2014...... 2017/2018..... and the 2020/21......

The first 2 both lost 85% before reversing upwards.. Can we expect the same now? 

This is a good take.  Those are in fact the 3 bubbles that resulted from the block reward halvings.  If we are to expect the same thing this time (I don't see any reason why it would be different) then of course you could expect a price drop.  Looks like your math expects a price around $10,000, which is the very obvious support level when you zoom out.  Sure, an ETF might create upward movement, but only if it's different this time...  I'd expect the manipulators to hold off on the ETF until after the mtgox coins are distributed, to keep the pattern going as good as possible and prepare for a run beyond six figures in 2025.

[Silberman]

I looked at BTC on the MONTHLY and zoomed out to "ALL" and looked at the RSI..

To me there has only been 3 big bull runs... We are just slipping down from that 3rd one now.

The 2013/2014...... 2017/2018..... and the 2020/21......

The first 2 both lost 85% before reversing upwards.. Can we expect the same now? 

We keep hearing "INSTITUTIONAL ADOPTION" and a bunch of other buzzwords but why wouldn't it be similar?

If we are to go 85% down from November ATH we can expect a $10,000 - $12,000 BTC..

Although the flag pole from the obvious bear flag that formed since November 17th takes us to $17/18k BTC..

Would love to hear some thoughts.

I think the main difference now is that the price did not grew as much as it did back then, this bull run was milder so it is to be expected that the bear market will be milder too, also even if the volatility is still very high compared to other assets I think we can see a decrease in the volatility of bitcoin compared to what we saw back then, so when I take into account those two factors then it is very clear to me that it is very difficult that we are going to see such a big drop as we did in the past.

[Slow death]

Would love to hear some thoughts.

if the price drops far below $28000 and this time does not immediately go back above $29000 or if it stays in this zone of 28000 - 30000 and does not break above $32000 expect a drop to see $20,000. but the issue here will only become serious if it drops below 20,000$, I say that because if it drops to $20,000 then we will see $10,000 again, but it will be a good buying opportunity for me in case it ever drops to 10,000$ , I would buy and become a true HODL for years

I think the main difference now is that the price did not grew as much as it did back then, this bull run was milder so it is to be expected that the bear market will be milder too, also even if the volatility is still very high compared to other assets I think we can see a decrease in the volatility of bitcoin compared to what we saw back then, so when I take into account those two factors then it is very clear to me that it is very difficult that we are going to see such a big drop as we did in the past.

the price has been falling since it didn't break its ATH and to make it worse there is the war in ukraine that is affecting only markets (in my country the price of food is already rising in price to a frightening level because of this war... the price of fuel is very high ), there was this problem with Luna, finally things are not going to the optimistic side so seeing a big price drop in that time is something normal

[Fundamentals Of]

Anything could happen. So far Bitcoin is only losing 57% from its ATH reached 7 months ago. If 85% is indeed the target in this bear market, it means we still have a long way to go.

History may indeed repeat. But if we compare that possibility to the previous cases mentioned in the OP, it means Bitcoin would be losing more than $58,000 to its price. That is too big a loss which is incomparable to what Bitcoin had lost in the other cases.

[Poker Player]

First of all: we had only two times where the often mentioned bull-bear 4-year-cycle pattern with 85% depreciation really occurred: 2011-14 and 2015-18. So the statistical evidence for that pattern being a "rule" set in stone is pretty low.

I hope d5000 gets some merits for this post, I am currently out.

I would go further, it is that the future does not have to repeat the past. Even if we had 5 or 10 similar cycles instead of 2 we could not be very sure.

The problem is that we don't have really good fundamental indicators* with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, so we search for patterns like the "bull-bear 4-year cycle" to guide our investments.

Of course, since we cannot rely on fundamentals, we go to technical analysis trying to find regularities to repeat in the short history of Bitcoin, when they are more our projections than regularities of nature that we have discovered.

I'm not convinced that Bitcoin really needs do that to succeed - i.e. it can also have success being a global currency which coexists with fiat currencies, very much like it occurs with gold, but with much better transferability (so it can really be used as a currency, above all for international transactions). I think this is a more likely outcome than Bitcoin "replacing" all fiat currencies.

Totally agree, and at least as of today, Bitcoin replacing fiat currencies is a dream with 0 signs of becoming real, more wishful thinking than anything else. I would like it to be so, but we should not confuse wishful thinking with reality.

[STT]

Any harsh low is likely to be a one day spike down, of course at that time you wont know if its for one day or forever hence some sell.   The low is always something of a test but low prices are far more consistent to track then the highest prices I think there is more accuracy to their movements so it should be possible to buy on those lows as price action shows itself to be more regular and very slightly positive.
  The harsh spike down is hard to call, my worst estimate was perhaps the 2019 peak but the 200 week seems to match up better.   I was never sure about the 2017 peak because it was stuck in the middle of transaction fees spiking, was volume reliable at that time to reflect consensus or was it mostly just the largest speculators outbidding themselves.

[buwaytress]

One argument that this is different though is that the supercycle seems to be over. We've seen ATH of 100 times the previous, then 15 times the previous, and now only 3 times the previous. That could also signal an end to the extreme dip.

Can you just explain this?

My rough memory estimates:

Lazlo to 2010: 1 cent to $1 - 100 times
to 2011 ATH $30 - 30 times
1250 (2013 ATH) to 19800 (2017 ATH) is roughly 15 times
20k (2017 ATH) to 68k (2021 ATH) is roughly 3.5 times. This is the end of supercycle to me, so possibly also the end of extreme dip.

I think the major problem is the complexity of Bitcoin, simply put we need to dumb it down a little bit, without compromising security. It's possible, since fiat has done it. Fiat is complex, yet most people don't understand it, but keep using it. We need to achieve that level of trust, and simplicity with Bitcoin.

I believed this almost as soon as I started using Bitcoin myself. My partner got her very first BTC in March this year, from a Bitcoin ATM. So different experience from when I got my first in 2016 (ignoring that I had some faucets and casino accounts earlier). App was downloaded and installed in minutes, payment and QR code scanned, but it was still a bit too complicated she said.

I do agree we really need to move away from pointless mantra-signalling like "it's not on-chain, so it's not Bitcoin" or even "not your keys not your coins", which only alienates potential users.

I believe Bitcoin hasnt fallen below previous ATH's post halving, the last post halving
was December 2017 > $20,000

After the big pullback from the 2017 ATH the price didnt go near the previous ATH of 2013!
so maybe this will be the case this year and into 2023.

Very true but we've also never had an ATH so close to the previous one. All bets are off.

[thevoyager23]

One of my posts didn't seem to... post.. So here we go again.

Some great info and technical and creative ideas here. Good to have an open mind mixed with a more fundamental one!

I asked in my since vanished post about the 200 EMA on the weekly... As you all know, BTC has always popped off the 200 EMA weekly in the past, once dipping just below but always rebounding up into a new powerful bull run or eventually ATH... Could we grind down slowly to $17/18k or $24k BTC and rebound, maybe in say end of the year?

Because it is possible obviously for that 200 ema weekly to be slowly bent down to sub $20k BTC without the candles ever touching it?

edit:   Not to mention one of my fave indicators the fear and greed is at a historical buy level of 10 now. Obviously you don't rush in and buy 10 btc just because one indicator says, but you only have to look at history and give or take within a few weeks to a couple of months it's always been a good buying opportunity for sure. If not just to DCA in and Hodl.