China is a declining Power

[Majestic-milf]

 Decline can be quite tricky; esp as the term makes us picture a country that is falling like a rock. But funny enough, a country can be in a relative decline, having a facade of prosperity, prospering in other areas such as it's military might, but then, its economic strength could be in shambles.
 China has managed to rise from it's pitiable state of poverty during the period of the 1970s and have been able to defy predictions that it would soon stumble.
But now, with them experiencing a demographic disaster coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it seems China is slowly coming to the end of its stunning economic growth. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/05/economy/china-economy-services-decline-covid-intl-hnk/index.html
 

[fiulpro]

Going to have to disagree with this one. To address your main part of China coming to end of their economic growth, sure they might level of in comparison to the last 20 years. But to say this is the end is a joke. The world still heavily relies of China for lots of things, they have pushed a billion people above the poverty line and no with their money and infrastructure across the globe, especially in Africa and other developing nations. Money will continue to pour in. Where you may of had a point would be education, in contrast to western education, Chinese education has been less about creativity, creating less creative minds. This is no longer the case. There has been an influx of Chinese students in every university in the world. Not to mention as people move away from US ideologies, it's not that they are going to turn to Chinese socialism. But more of their own socialism with "insert nation" characteristics. As much of the western propaganda you read, china won't have trouble in the south chine sea, Australia needs them, the US still needs them, EU and of with no backlash from muslim countries of the treatment in xianjiang. China will continue to develop, as someone who currently lives in London and has spent time in china, it's a ridiculous take to say china is coming to end of their growth.

[amishmanish]

China is shown the west that Asian economies can become powerhouse of world economy, something which seemed very improbable in 1960s and 70s. It is commendable how china utilized its huge population and the discipline with with china controlled its population.
I do believe that china need some governance upgrades, but its economic growth is a world class case study. Currently it certainly is going through a slump, but I believe it will remain one of the impressive economy in time to come

[Majestic-milf]

China is shown the west that Asian economies can become powerhouse of world economy, something which seemed very improbable in 1960s and 70s. It is commendable how china utilized its huge population and the discipline with with china controlled its population.
I do believe that china need some governance upgrades, but its economic growth is a world class case study. Currently it certainly is going through a slump, but I believe it will remain one of the impressive economy in time to come

Truthfully, their economy is a world class case study and a means of encouragement to countries who are still developing and who are even developed. But with this situation they have on their plate, can they bounce back quick enough?

[Israelgogo]

I will gladly disagree with this statement, The Great china rised from nothing to something, the old china was faced with hardship ,poverty and population affect ,china rose from the Grassroot to becoming badget and technology gurus who has taking over 65% of the world market ,technology and structures,china develop itself and saw reasons to make their economy stronger and their yen acceptable in the market.

Just recently china were faced with more challenging pandemic than all other nations they fault it,it affected their economy ,they rise back and still become the leading technological market in the world, Nearly all gadget,accessories, technology and construction are china inclined making them gaints in technological world.

Chinese military strenght is still one of the top in the world, thet are strong in man power,Weapons ,air strike ,land and water ,when calling top 5 world powers, china should never be excluded ,their economy is strong enough they even loan other undeveloped countries funds for survival. Their business are top in all nations.

Put some respect in the name china ,the are world class and still leading


 

[dataispower]

Truthfully, their economy is a world class case study and a means of encouragement to countries who are still developing and who are even developed. But with this situation they have on their plate, can they bounce back quick enough?

What causes the economy of china to be superior and emulated from other countries. Is because China harmonize their selves together to make sure they have gone out from economical reception. Before china was one among the country that do not have a good economy, and since they calm down to study were their problem is coming from, and they have no excuse to put everything together to work as a team to rise the country. Some of the countries of that is battling into economical problem. I think is from the architect of the managerial of the country

[Gyfts]

China would invade Taiwan to save their dying economy. If that meant starting an international conflict with the U.S., so be it. They will not simply succumb to their economic woes without trying for the gold mine that lies below their border and try to control chip production. It'd mean that they would also have immense power over the U.S.

But more of their own socialism with "insert nation" characteristics. As much of the western propaganda you read, china won't have trouble in the south chine sea, Australia needs them, the US still needs them, EU and of with no backlash from muslim countries of the treatment in xianjiang. China will continue to develop, as someone who currently lives in London and has spent time in china, it's a ridiculous take to say china is coming to end of their growth.

They will develop, just not at the rate as they were before. No one is suggesting that China will cease to exist. They just won't become the world power they were on track to be.

[philipma1957]

Going to have to disagree with this one. To address your main part of China coming to end of their economic growth, sure they might level of in comparison to the last 20 years. But to say this is the end is a joke. The world still heavily relies of China for lots of things, they have pushed a billion people above the poverty line and no with their money and infrastructure across the globe, especially in Africa and other developing nations. Money will continue to pour in. Where you may of had a point would be education, in contrast to western education, Chinese education has been less about creativity, creating less creative minds. This is no longer the case. There has been an influx of Chinese students in every university in the world. Not to mention as people move away from US ideologies, it's not that they are going to turn to Chinese socialism. But more of their own socialism with "insert nation" characteristics. As much of the western propaganda you read, china won't have trouble in the south chine sea, Australia needs them, the US still needs them, EU and of with no backlash from muslim countries of the treatment in xianjiang. China will continue to develop, as someone who currently lives in London and has spent time in china, it's a ridiculous take to say china is coming to end of their growth.

he did not say an end to economic growth.

he say an end to stunning economic growth.


which basically mean they are declining some what. He is perfectly correct. The economic growth rate china 🇨🇳 has enjoy will not go on it will level off.

Does it mean china will fall apart I doubt that.
Does it mean it will grow at the same rate it has done the last 30 years or so no.
It means the rate will decline.

Ie maybe 5% not 10%.

I agree with the op . I think you simply over read the op’s point.

an end to stunning economic growth is a decline in growth.

[Cnut237]

Going to have to disagree with this one. To address your main part of China coming to end of their economic growth, sure they might level of in comparison to the last 20 years. But to say this is the end is a joke. The world still heavily relies of China for lots of things, they have pushed a billion people above the poverty line and no with their money and infrastructure across the globe, especially in Africa and other developing nations. Money will continue to pour in. Where you may of had a point would be education, in contrast to western education, Chinese education has been less about creativity, creating less creative minds. This is no longer the case. There has been an influx of Chinese students in every university in the world. Not to mention as people move away from US ideologies, it's not that they are going to turn to Chinese socialism. But more of their own socialism with "insert nation" characteristics. As much of the western propaganda you read, china won't have trouble in the south chine sea, Australia needs them, the US still needs them, EU and of with no backlash from muslim countries of the treatment in xianjiang. China will continue to develop, as someone who currently lives in London and has spent time in china, it's a ridiculous take to say china is coming to end of their growth.

he did not say an end to economic growth.

he say an end to stunning economic growth.


which basically mean they are declining some what. He is perfectly correct. The economic growth rate china 🇨🇳 has enjoy will not go on it will level off.

Does it mean china will fall apart I doubt that.
Does it mean it will grow at the same rate it has done the last 30 years or so no.
It means the rate will decline.

Ie maybe 5% not 10%.

I agree with the op . I think you simply over read the op’s point.

an end to stunning economic growth is a decline in growth.

I think the issue is that the thread title can be misinterpreted very easily. I clicked on the title, preparing to disagree with the OP, but then saw that the argument was not that China would fall back into poverty, cease to be a superpower, etc... merely that its phenomenal level of growth would not continue. Which we'd probably all agree with. Thread title probably needs a tweak, though, to avoid confusion.

[franky1]

during a time of lockdown
(feb 2020 and april 2022) a 15% drop is nothing.

trying to make long term statements about china losing power, using short term data of just last month is silly.

after all in february 2020 had a higher loss of more then 15%.. but recovered afterwards.

..

as for GDP well thats just a arbitrary number
so many things influence it, so that GDP becomes void of relevance.

EG if they actually had a measure of people vs. square footage of land ownership per person.
the % spend of minimum wage that can afford shelter, food, electric.
and the compared countries by that.. CHINA WOULD WIN

it has 4.2x population of the US
so loaf of bread vs loaf of bread. china can feed, house and enlighten 4.2x more then america. meaning china has more then america in most respects.

the only reason that its not seen is that forex. pegs china's 'value' at 4x less than america

EG if you can buy the same amount of loaves of bread in china and america. same square footage of house and same sofa..
china would still look like its 4x less because the RMB/USD conversion has made china look 4x poorer.

[TheNineClub]

Decline can be quite tricky; esp as the term makes us picture a country that is falling like a rock. But funny enough, a country can be in a relative decline, having a facade of prosperity, prospering in other areas such as it's military might, but then, its economic strength could be in shambles.
 China has managed to rise from it's pitiable state of poverty during the period of the 1970s and have been able to defy predictions that it would soon stumble.
But now, with them experiencing a demographic disaster coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it seems China is slowly coming to the end of its stunning economic growth. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/05/economy/china-economy-services-decline-covid-intl-hnk/index.html
 

Also, a decline might not be rapid, rather slow and steady taking up much time. What we are witnesing now with China might not be even close to the end, look at how USA  is postponing it's downfall so it's anybodys guess how it will go for China.

[franky1]

Decline can be quite tricky; esp as the term makes us picture a country that is falling like a rock. But funny enough, a country can be in a relative decline, having a facade of prosperity, prospering in other areas such as it's military might, but then, its economic strength could be in shambles.
 China has managed to rise from it's pitiable state of poverty during the period of the 1970s and have been able to defy predictions that it would soon stumble.
But now, with them experiencing a demographic disaster coupled with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it seems China is slowly coming to the end of its stunning economic growth. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/05/economy/china-economy-services-decline-covid-intl-hnk/index.html
 

Also, a decline might not be rapid, rather slow and steady taking up much time. What we are witnesing now with China might not be even close to the end, look at how USA  is postponing it's downfall so it's anybodys guess how it will go for China.

america is 'propping' up its downfall. by faking its GDP
they done this by alot of quantitative easing (printing money)
but this money is not being put into the system where citizens get more income or better livestyle. its hidden away at the top, in silly derivatives and corporate backed 'products' that just stay there out of circulation.

so although GDP appears as better $/person.. in reality. the $/p is far less than it used to be.
US spending power of being able to feed, cloth/house themselves is worse than in the 1950-60's. yet GDP makes it look like america is better than it was in the the 1950-60's

china is better now than in the 1950-60's yet the forex rates hide that where it makes it look like china is worse living conditions than in the 1950-60's

[OgNasty]

I think this Covid stuff is just a speed bump for China.  I would hardly call them a declining power.  They will most certainly be the world's leading superpower in another 15 years, regardless of how much their growth slows.  I think as the world continues to evolve, China will find itself in an increasingly powerful position.  They have a lot of their side for the future.  I wouldn't count them out...

[philipma1957]

I think this Covid stuff is just a speed bump for China.  I would hardly call them a declining power.  They will most certainly be the world's leading superpower in another 15 years, regardless of how much their growth slows.  I think as the world continues to evolve, China will find itself in an increasingly powerful position.  They have a lot of their side for the future.  I wouldn't count them out...

he/she m-milf the op did not say they were declining power the op said they would slow their growth which is a decline growth rate.

I think a good example is btc it will never grow at the rate it did from 2009 to now.

10000 btc for 1 pizza  is now 291,110,000

so 10 bucks became 29,111,000 bigger

that growth rate will decline

[Cnut237]

he/she m-milf the op did not say they were declining power the op said they would slow their growth which is a decline growth rate.

I think a good example is btc it will never grow at the rate it did from 2009 to now.

10000 btc for 1 pizza  is now 291,110,000

so 10 bucks became 29,111,000 bigger

that growth rate will decline

Yes. It's been apparent for some years now that the era of double-digit Chinese growth has ended. The huge spike in early 2021 emphasises your point regarding bitcoin - it's far easier to grow from a low base, the massive early 2021 growth occurs only because the growth is year-on-year, so it's relative to the downturn at the start of the pandemic.

As there is some confusion in this thread, I should stress that the chart below is measuring the rate of change of GDP, not absolute GDP numbers. So with this in mind, any value above 0 is still growth, and China is still growing at a significant rate, just not as much as previously.


https://www.statista.com/chart/17747/china-quarterly-gdp-growth/


And as an aside, this also suggests that if we are trying to assess the long-term growth of something that has exploded exponentially, such as bitcoin, it makes more sense to do so on a logarithmic rather than a linear scale.


https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

[Majestic-milf]

I will gladly disagree with this statement, The Great china rised from nothing to something, the old china was faced with hardship ,poverty and population affect ,china rose from the Grassroot to becoming badget and technology gurus who has taking over 65% of the world market ,technology and structures,china develop itself and saw reasons to make their economy stronger and their yen acceptable in the market.

Just recently china were faced with more challenging pandemic than all other nations they fault it,it affected their economy ,they rise back and still become the leading technological market in the world, Nearly all gadget,accessories, technology and construction are china inclined making them gaints in technological world.

Chinese military strenght is still one of the top in the world, thet are strong in man power,Weapons ,air strike ,land and water ,when calling top 5 world powers, china should never be excluded ,their economy is strong enough they even loan other undeveloped countries funds for survival. Their business are top in all nations.

Put some respect in the name china ,the are world class and still leading


 

I will advise you reread what was posted. I will not discredit the fact that China's rise to world dominance should not be emulated or applauded. At present, their military might is second place after the US. They do not engage in exports as all they need, they try to develop or manufacture it. But looking at their demography, China is one of the worst hit when it comes to earthquakes and you think that will not have an effect? Take the COVID-19 outbreak for instance, in as much as they have found a way to get round it, it still poses a big threat to their economy.

[Cnut237]

China [...]  do not engage in exports as all they need, they try to develop or manufacture it.

I assume you mean imports? In fact, whilst China is generally thought of as an exporting nation, it does also import a lot.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_imports


There's an interesting breakdown of Chinese imports by category here (including the treemap visual below): https://tradingeconomics.com/china/imports-by-category

[evilgreed]

               Nothing lasts forever as what people say, and this is true in every sense on just about anything. China has grown well over the past years but as we see, it is gradually slowing down. As to how much it would slow down or decrease the pace of its growth I can't say since I am not good with statistics. But common sense does help me see this. Still though, I believe that China won't lose out to other countries in terms of growth in the short term. Regardless, in the long run, it may he over taken since some countries show great potential in growth. Just my simple view.

[ololajulo]

              Nothing lasts forever as what people say, and this is true in every sense on just about anything. China has grown well over the past years but as we see, it is gradually slowing down. As to how much it would slow down or decrease the pace of its growth I can't say since I am not good with statistics. But common sense does help me see this. Still though, I believe that China won't lose out to other countries in terms of growth in the short term. Regardless, in the long run, it may he over taken since some countries show great potential in growth. Just my simple view.

If you dont use statistics then you cant draw any conclusion on the state of China, we should compare data. Unfortunately, china is more conceal with some data than America. A lot is happening in the world that have shifted our minds off politicking with other top countries. In all standards, China is doing very well with world market, foreign reserve etc but their image is being attacked regularly.

[franky1]

in a country that has ZERO imports/exports. there is no growth. its just stirring the same money in the same pot within the country.

if a country is a heavy importer it loses because it is spending money, giving money to other countries

if a country is a heavy exporter it wins because it is receiving money, getting money from other countries

in short china wins america loses

alot of people see news/media trying to say that china is a big enemy. this is a huge falsehood. they do this to try and scare small businesses from forming relationships with china to compete with the big companies. making it impractical for small businesses to start up and just form contracts with china unless they have authorisation by certain international committee's that pretend its defending america from foreign threats.

silly stories about how people have to bow down every time they see a picture of the chinese president or face arrest. silly stories about how every penny of chinese currency is monitored and a personable offence if you do a deal thats not ratified and acknowledged by chinese/us government.

silly stories about how china has more people in detention camps than america does.
sorry but this is untrue.

this is not china being secretive. this is the western countries selling western citizens a false story and pretending its the only story that exists.

even statistics like GDP is falsely reported in the west by basing it on a crappy US forex rate that the US push as the conversion rate of value. even though as described in my previous post if based on lifestyle vs lifestyle of same house layout and furnishings, TV screen size and food contents of the kitchen freezer.. china has more 'value' per person than the US.

even the false news of china wasting more power.
based on each house usage. china uses less electric per house than america does. meaning america wastes more electric

lets take the news about the 'concentration camps'
1.4bill chinese and 1mill uyghurs in detention camps.
thats not even 0.1%(0.07%)

yet america has more then 0.1.% of mexicans in detention camps..
US 330m pop with 1.7m mexicans in detention camps in 2021 (0.51%)

and yes america love their guns and would happily 'shoot to kill escapees' too.

china has less of a migrant/illegal alien problem than america does