How do you calculate price of grain /materials ,how can you predict future price

[gweb1996]

How do you calculate price of grain  / materials ,how can you predict future price?

Example:

Today you got 1 ton harvest of wheat per hectar , "stock market is dead do to EMP bomb "... what is the price that i should ask for my 1 ton of wheat ?
If i store the 1 ton of wheat in a silo how much should i ask for it next year ?

Example:

Today you got 1 ton steel , "stock market is dead do to EMP bomb "... what is the price that i should ask for my 1 ton of steel ?
If i store the 1 ton of steel   how much should i ask for it next year ?

What formulas should i use to determine the price ?

[fiulpro]

You cannot calculate the price of anything to be honest because at the end of the day one cannot make all the predictions correctly therefore there are things that you might find online, charts and things telling how they can predict the price of Bitcoins but you should know that these things are purely coincidental and the only thing that can help predict the price is 'News' be it stocks or be it cryptos like the bitcoins news about any buying/selling/updates/adjustments might give us an idea about how the market might behave in the near future for me I just hold on to these things and hope for the best.
Just have a good eye for news and be really active.

[serjent05]

Traders have two approaches to predicting price trends.

1. Fundamental analysis - it is a method of measuring a security's intrinsic value by examining related economic and financial factors. Fundamental analysts study anything that can affect the security's value, from macroeconomic factors such as the state of the economy and industry conditions to microeconomic factors like the effectiveness of the company's management.
The end goal is to arrive at a number that an investor can compare with a security's current price in order to see whether the security is undervalued or overvalued. [1] Read more here

2. Technical analysis - it is a trading discipline employed to evaluate investments and identify trading opportunities by analyzing statistical trends gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume. Unlike fundamental analysis, which attempts to evaluate a security's value based on business results such as sales and earnings, technical analysis focuses on the study of price and volume.[2]  Read more here.

What formulas should i use to determine the price ?

You can choose any of the available trading formulas in the market but let me remind you that even with these two methods mastered, you cannot determine the exact price of an item in a given future time.




[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fundamentalanalysis.asp
[2] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/technicalanalysis.asp

[gweb1996]

Traders have two approaches to predicting price trends.

1. Fundamental analysis - it is a method of measuring a security's intrinsic value by examining related economic and financial factors. Fundamental analysts study anything that can affect the security's value, from macroeconomic factors such as the state of the economy and industry conditions to microeconomic factors like the effectiveness of the company's management.
The end goal is to arrive at a number that an investor can compare with a security's current price in order to see whether the security is undervalued or overvalued. [1] Read more here

2. Technical analysis - it is a trading discipline employed to evaluate investments and identify trading opportunities by analyzing statistical trends gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume. Unlike fundamental analysis, which attempts to evaluate a security's value based on business results such as sales and earnings, technical analysis focuses on the study of price and volume.[2]  Read more here.

What formulas should i use to determine the price ?

You can choose any of the available trading formulas in the market but let me remind you that even with these two methods mastered, you cannot determine the exact price of an item in a given future time.




[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fundamentalanalysis.asp
[2] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/technicalanalysis.asp

nah it's not correct ... it's materials / grains

i think it is :  grains / materials cash price = cost of production + local taxes + logistics cost + labor cost + tariffs + markup  

if you sell local i think it should be:  grains / materials cash price = cost of production + local taxes + logistics cost + labor cost + markup  

[serjent05]

Traders have two approaches to predicting price trends.

..snipped

nah it's not correct ... it's materials / grains

i think it is :  grains / materials cash price = cost of production + local taxes + logistics cost + labor cost + tariffs + markup  

if you sell local i think it should be:  grains / materials cash price = cost of production + local taxes + logistics cost + labor cost + markup  

I bet you are talking about the fundamental analysis of determining the market value of an item.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
Fundamental analysis is a method of determining a stock's real or "fair market" value.
Fundamental analysts search for stocks that are currently trading at prices that are higher or lower than their real value.
If the fair market value is higher than the market price, the stock is deemed to be undervalued and a buy recommendation is given.
In contrast, technical analysts ignore the fundamentals in favor of studying the historical price trends of the stock.

As stated in the quoted Key Takeaways, your formula falls under Fundamental analysis.


If you are asking about the formula for the future pricing of an item, aside from your given sample formula, you shouldn't forget the currency inflation factor.

[goaldigger]

Go back to the law of supply and demand rules, right now there’s a lot of shortages on basic commodities and we already feeling it, this might be the start of increasing the raw prices and you can only know this when you understand the market. I believe the government should guide those small farmers since they are the one who are being abused here, in my country their products are being paid for a low price but when those big companies put it on the market, the price increases more than 200% of its original harvest value.

[Hydrogen]

What formulas should i use to determine the price ?

Basic fundamentals like fertilizer costs, water costs and shipping costs are priced into grain production overhead.

Water is generally becoming more scarce as drought increases, a trend attributed to climate change. Reduced supply of water is correlated with higher base price of crop and meat production.

Chemical fertilizer is produced from natural gas. The value of gas is also rising which prices into the base cost of grain production.

Shipping and transportation costs are also rising and priced into the base cost of production.

Farmers will seek to find market alternatives which are more affordable. At a certain tipping point organic fertilizer will become more affordable in contrast to chemical fertilizer.

But in general rising costs of water, natural gas, fertilizer and shipping will be priced into general production and lead to price hikes. With the exception being subsidized farms which might produce at a gross loss to maintain affordable food prices for the general public.

[Darker45]

There's no single formula to determine the prices of all kinds of goods. There are a number of factors involved. But basically you have to add up the entire cost in producing the product and then add the markup as your profit and that's it.

Your markup will, in turn, be affected by certain factors as well. The demand and supply is a huge factor in this. However, there are also policies which put limit to the profit.

The overall price will, of course, fluctuate regardless of the markup because the cost price is dependent on several factors also. In wheat, for example, the prices of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, and others will have an effect.

[odolvlobo]

i think it is : grains / materials cash price = cost of production + local taxes + logistics cost + labor cost + tariffs + markup  

Note that markup could be a negative number. You might have to sell at a loss.

Anyway, the price cannot be determined by a formula. It is determined by the market. As a seller, you would want to get the highest price that somebody is willing to pay.