The Geopolitical shock expected from the Russian invasion

[StanCrypt]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a direct challenge to Europe's postwar order, which is articulated through multilateral organizations like the EU and NATO and is backed by US strength. It needs to be seen if these systems buckle or are re-energized by the Russian threat. It's also uncertain how China will balance its ties with the West and its Russian neighbor in the long run. China has actively prepared for a period of geopolitical turbulence by hoarding oil and commodities as a reserve buffer, while maintaining friendly relations with Russia. Beijing is in a good position to help L&MICs mitigate the conflict's negative consequences. Debt has crippled many Asian and African economies, which are reliant on Chinese inbound investment and commodities consumption.

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

[Hydrogen]

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

Massive use of conscripts by russia in the invasion of ukraine. Mirrors the composition of china's military which also relies heavily on conscription. I would guess china is using data collected from the invasion to better strategize their announced impending invasion of taiwan.

The west in the current era functions as a series of chinese vassal states. Russia is more independent than the united states. But Putin grovels to suit china's needs.

The big question is whether china will be able to survive when its safety net of global trade & beneficiaries dry up in the next impending economic crisis. Its wealth and GDP are built upon a foundation of ghost cities and questionable assets. Critical banking infrastructure has been failing for many years. They have bubbles in the form of evergrande and multi trillions in automobile related debt.

[be.open]

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

China has made its impressive economic breakthrough on cheap coal. Then coal deposits in China began to run out and now China is the most energy-deficient country in the world. Western sanctions are pushing Russia to turn its back on Europe and divert more oil and coal to Asia, including China. If the sanctions last long enough to destroy the economic ties between Russia and Europe, China will become one of the main beneficiaries of this crisis.

[Gyfts]

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

China has made its impressive economic breakthrough on cheap coal. Then coal deposits in China began to run out and now China is the most energy-deficient country in the world. Western sanctions are pushing Russia to turn its back on Europe and divert more oil and coal to Asia, including China. If the sanctions last long enough to destroy the economic ties between Russia and Europe, China will become one of the main beneficiaries of this crisis.

China's economy isn't doing great at the moment. They're far from collapse but their economic growth appears to be slowing a bit.

They might look to Taiwan to ease any economic woes if they have them. Not that the Ukrainian war would have offered them any pause in their intentions to take Taiwan, but it certainly has reaffirmed their ambitions seeing the miserable response by most EU nations and the U.S. The only difference is that Taiwan is worth more to the U.S. than Ukraine. So if compelled, the U.S. might use military force to protect Taiwan in the event of an invasion (I'm still a bit doubtful thought).

China are the real winners here.

[teosanru]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a direct challenge to Europe's postwar order, which is articulated through multilateral organizations like the EU and NATO and is backed by US strength. It needs to be seen if these systems buckle or are re-energized by the Russian threat. It's also uncertain how China will balance its ties with the West and its Russian neighbor in the long run. China has actively prepared for a period of geopolitical turbulence by hoarding oil and commodities as a reserve buffer, while maintaining friendly relations with Russia. Beijing is in a good position to help L&MICs mitigate the conflict's negative consequences. Debt has crippled many Asian and African economies, which are reliant on Chinese inbound investment and commodities consumption.

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

This actually is true and good. See no matter how much we advocate the west, there always should be some other equivalent power to counter balance a growing power otherwise that power would substantially do anything it wants to and will portray it as the best thing for the world. I think what Russia did isn't correct but was necessary to show an example that how one country can decide to go against what the whole west wants the world to.

[be.open]

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

China has made its impressive economic breakthrough on cheap coal. Then coal deposits in China began to run out and now China is the most energy-deficient country in the world. Western sanctions are pushing Russia to turn its back on Europe and divert more oil and coal to Asia, including China. If the sanctions last long enough to destroy the economic ties between Russia and Europe, China will become one of the main beneficiaries of this crisis.

China's economy isn't doing great at the moment. They're far from collapse but their economic growth appears to be slowing a bit.

They might look to Taiwan to ease any economic woes if they have them. Not that the Ukrainian war would have offered them any pause in their intentions to take Taiwan, but it certainly has reaffirmed their ambitions seeing the miserable response by most EU nations and the U.S. The only difference is that Taiwan is worth more to the U.S. than Ukraine. So if compelled, the U.S. might use military force to protect Taiwan in the event of an invasion (I'm still a bit doubtful thought).

China are the real winners here.

I am not a big fan of conspiracy theories, but looking at the lockdown in Shanghai due to the relatively harmless omicron, the thought creeps involuntarily that China's "zero tolerance" policy regarding covid-19 has as one of its goals to create an artificial break in supply chains, because Shanghai is the center of container shipping from China. In fact, China now supplies goods only by land, and sea freight is blocked by 80%. Both China itself and the whole world, which is used to receiving goods from China by sea, suffer from this. This can be regarded as an act of China's soft economic warfare in its confrontation with the West.

[Gyfts]

I am not a big fan of conspiracy theories, but looking at the lockdown in Shanghai due to the relatively harmless omicron, the thought creeps involuntarily that China's "zero tolerance" policy regarding covid-19 has as one of its goals to create an artificial break in supply chains, because Shanghai is the center of container shipping from China. In fact, China now supplies goods only by land, and sea freight is blocked by 80%. Both China itself and the whole world, which is used to receiving goods from China by sea, suffer from this. This can be regarded as an act of China's soft economic warfare in its confrontation with the West.

The COVID supply chains are only part of it. There were some videos circulating around of China killing people's pets and confining them to their apartment buildings not even allowing their citizens to go to the grocery store unescorted, if at all. I can't verify these videos, but they seem legitimate and aligned with the CCP. IMO, they weren't too vulnerable from COVID, they just forced themselves into a position that allowed them to be economically fragile.

It's also why I laugh at folks that think China would be on board with Russian sanctions. As if they would pass an opportunity to conduct trade with an oil producing region.

[Gozie51]

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

China has made its impressive economic breakthrough on cheap coal. Then coal deposits in China began to run out and now China is the most energy-deficient country in the world. Western sanctions are pushing Russia to turn its back on Europe and divert more oil and coal to Asia, including China. If the sanctions last long enough to destroy the economic ties between Russia and Europe, China will become one of the main beneficiaries of this crisis.

At the moment China seem to be the benefactor apart from the coal that Russia is depositing there, because of the new relationship that has been caused by the war and sanctions against Russia, china is trading with Russia heavily although on informal bases . Almost all energy resources is going to china as the biggest partner now.

Currently, around 80 per cent of Chinese imports of Russian products are minerals, and crude oil comprises more than 70 per cent of those imported minerals, according to Post calculations based on Chinese customs figures.

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[TheCoinGrabber]

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

China has made its impressive economic breakthrough on cheap coal. Then coal deposits in China began to run out and now China is the most energy-deficient country in the world. Western sanctions are pushing Russia to turn its back on Europe and divert more oil and coal to Asia, including China. If the sanctions last long enough to destroy the economic ties between Russia and Europe, China will become one of the main beneficiaries of this crisis.

Indeed, China is the big winner here. Russia probably wouldn't be in as dependent as state as North Korea is but if the Western powers do push through those sanctions, Russia wouldn't really have much alternatives but to sell to China at lower rates than it would have wanted.

[so98nn]

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

China is country who keeps their “dictatorship” agendas anonymous all the time. Due to the nature of its government working China could not be trusted at every corner of the roadmap. The only thing that is putting up China and Russia relationship strong is the current opposition of EU and USA to Russia thus giving protection to China in geological sense. China needs Russian fuel, and it’s not at all in the position to create another resource or relation due to their negative attitude. China is going to stay silent, and will only open up arms when everything is favourable.

[avikz]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a direct challenge to Europe's postwar order, which is articulated through multilateral organizations like the EU and NATO and is backed by US strength. It needs to be seen if these systems buckle or are re-energized by the Russian threat. It's also uncertain how China will balance its ties with the West and its Russian neighbor in the long run. China has actively prepared for a period of geopolitical turbulence by hoarding oil and commodities as a reserve buffer, while maintaining friendly relations with Russia. Beijing is in a good position to help L&MICs mitigate the conflict's negative consequences. Debt has crippled many Asian and African economies, which are reliant on Chinese inbound investment and commodities consumption.

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

Very few people are getting the actual game it seems! Russia invaded Ukraine for a reason and this reason was birthed by US who wanted to have interrupted access to Russian border. If Ukraine is invited in NATO, it will have to give this access to the NATO forces aka US. That's what US is looking for a long long time. Russia definitely didn't appreciate that!

Now through this gameplan, US also planned to increase the dollar dominance in EU nations which didn't work out. Look at the list of suffering countries - these are from EU only who are heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. US didn't take the hit.

Understand the gameplan of US. They are just trying to maintain their supremacy over the rest of the world while Russia and China is a roadblock to achieve this.

[SyndicateLabs]

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

One of the things that I see is that China is quite comfortable with this conflict between the parties, and they have an advantage in continuing to grow and get stronger. Perhaps we will soon see the domination of the global economy by the eastern countries, as they are quite peaceful at the moment. Although I am not a fan of China with their surrounding activities, I find what they have done after many years of invasion of the country has been amazing.

[Fortify]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a direct challenge to Europe's postwar order, which is articulated through multilateral organizations like the EU and NATO and is backed by US strength. It needs to be seen if these systems buckle or are re-energized by the Russian threat. It's also uncertain how China will balance its ties with the West and its Russian neighbor in the long run. China has actively prepared for a period of geopolitical turbulence by hoarding oil and commodities as a reserve buffer, while maintaining friendly relations with Russia. Beijing is in a good position to help L&MICs mitigate the conflict's negative consequences. Debt has crippled many Asian and African economies, which are reliant on Chinese inbound investment and commodities consumption.

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

The funny thing is - nothing much has changed in Europe, except for realizing that Russia is an unstable and unreliable economic partner. What you described is the most peaceful state of the world we have ever seen for many decades and it was shattered by an unnecessary war. We have already seen, even if you fail to understand it, that Europe/America/others have come together more than ever before to face the Russian threat and supply weapons to Ukraine. Everyone in this region is going to suffer, Ukraine is facing many pointless deaths due to Putin's pathetic bloodlust and Russia is going to be a global pariah for decades while Putin stays around. China is actually fostering their own home grown problem right now with this weak attempt at zero Covid, while the rest of the world understands it will always circulate and they have no respect from any free people.

[harapan]

Still not a fan for fighting another's man's battles, US has been in a huge debt, they should look for ways too solve that first. And not helping Ukraine with fundings anyways the World deserves Peace.
China double it's economy during the pandemic and yet this is another big chance for them too double up, been close ties with Russia feels like this is a team work to disable them, could that be possible ? How about they face the debts they are in and cut short some of these NGOs they are funding.

[justdimin]

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

One of the things that I see is that China is quite comfortable with this conflict between the parties, and they have an advantage in continuing to grow and get stronger. Perhaps we will soon see the domination of the global economy by the eastern countries, as they are quite peaceful at the moment. Although I am not a fan of China with their surrounding activities, I find what they have done after many years of invasion of the country has been amazing.

Surely, they have so much land, and so many people, making those people work extra time and using even more land to produce even more food wouldn't really be a problem for them.

As we all know they have a famine in their history where tens of millions of people died, and that was just for showing, and even though that happened and it sucked and it was such a bad thing, it did develop them into a power by gaining them more money in order to reinvest back into the nation. They could use that billion population power into this trouble and end up with a good result in the long run, wouldn't be ideal but wouldn't be a problem for them, totally profitable.

[davis196]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a direct challenge to Europe's postwar order, which is articulated through multilateral organizations like the EU and NATO and is backed by US strength. It needs to be seen if these systems buckle or are re-energized by the Russian threat. It's also uncertain how China will balance its ties with the West and its Russian neighbor in the long run. China has actively prepared for a period of geopolitical turbulence by hoarding oil and commodities as a reserve buffer, while maintaining friendly relations with Russia. Beijing is in a good position to help L&MICs mitigate the conflict's negative consequences. Debt has crippled many Asian and African economies, which are reliant on Chinese inbound investment and commodities consumption.

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

OP, you topic seems to be more focused on geopolitics rather than economics, so maybe you should move this forum thread to the Politics and society forum.
Anyway, the response of China would be pretty normal- stay neutral and see what happens (and try to get any benefit from current global geopolitical situation).
The Chinese have tons of patience and they are pretty forward thinking. I don't think that they are stupid enough to attack Taiwan, conventional wars are getting pretty much obsolete in the 21st century, the war in Ukraine is an example. Wars are just too expensive and the potential benefits are questionable. Why waste your resources in a war, when you could achieve your goals using other ways.

[DrBeer]

I don't think it's a shock. Everyone perfectly understood and understand what Russia is leading to, taking another step in parallel with the new threat towards peace. And the world "bent", then expressed "strong concern", but nothing more. Everyone understood perfectly well that 2014 is a tracing-paper since 1939, although now it is not Hitler who is at the head of the world terrorist, but his pathetic likeness from the Kremlin. So it was all expected and predictable.
I am now more interested in another topic - this is the disinterest of Germany, France, Italy (and some other, less significant countries), in the correct end of this war! Namely-not interested in the victory of Ukraine over Russia!
For them, this will mean building a new way of life in Europe, losing their status of "top EU countries", forcing them to new rules of the game, where they (the ruling elite) can no longer be the bedding of the Kremlin, receiving handouts from the Kremlin, for the sale their countries and the EU as a whole.
In a word, the real shock for the ruling, corrupt elites of Europe will not be the fact of unleashing a war by terrorist Russia, but a victory over Russia!